Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. (9887) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥114.96B
• Dividend Yield: 0.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 50.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 20.44%
• EPS Growth: 13.71%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,958
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 105.68
• Shares Outstanding: 20,463,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 35,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 50,516
• PEG Ratio: -2.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥6,976.00 ▲(7.49% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/21/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/21/25

Matsuya Foods Holdings shows strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and a sound capital structure. However, technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates possible overvaluation. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth

Multi-year revenue expansion to JPY 154.2bn shows durable demand and successful network scale. Persistent top-line growth supports fixed-cost absorption, supplier negotiation leverage, and reinvestment capacity, underpinning structural competitive strength over the coming months.

High Gross Margin

A ~63.9% gross margin indicates strong menu economics and procurement/operational control typical for efficient quick-service chains. Durable high gross margins provide a cushion versus input cost swings and support profitability retention as scale and procurement contracts persist.

Moderate Leverage

A debt-to-equity around 0.78 suggests manageable financial leverage, preserving balance sheet flexibility for new store investments or remodels. This structural capital health reduces solvency risk and enables financing options without overburdening cash flow over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining Net Margin

A nearly halved net margin year-over-year signals rising operating or SG&A pressures that erode shareholder returns. Sustained margin compression reduces ability to fund growth internally and heightens sensitivity to cost inflation, creating a structural profitability risk.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex can strain liquidity if persistent and may force external financing or slower reinvestment. Over time, this weakens the company's ability to self-fund expansion, dividends, or absorb shocks without altering strategy or capital structure.

Falling Return on Equity

ROE decline reflects reduced efficiency in turning equity into profit, signaling either margin pressure or suboptimal capital allocation. Persisting lower ROE can undermine long-term shareholder value creation and indicates the need for operating or strategic improvements.

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. owns and operates restaurants in Japan, China, and Taiwan. It operates beef-on-rice and set meals chains; and pork cutlet, sushi, and Chinese noodle restaurants, as well as provides restaurant technology and management instructions to franchise stores. The company also engages in the kitchen equipment maintenance, construction supervision, water supply, drainage construction, and cleaning activities; and sale of sanitary detergents. As of March 31, 2020, it operated 1193 restaurants. The company was formerly known as Matsuya Foods Co., Ltd. Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Musashino, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Matsuya Foods generates revenue primarily through the sales of food and beverages in its restaurant chain. The company operates a significant number of outlets, which attract a high volume of customers, thereby driving sales. Key revenue streams include direct sales from dine-in services, take-out orders, and delivery services. Additionally, Matsuya Foods benefits from the sale of packaged food products that are distributed through retail channels. The company has established partnerships with suppliers for high-quality ingredients, ensuring consistent product quality and customer satisfaction, which in turn supports its revenue growth. Seasonal promotions and marketing strategies also play a crucial role in driving customer traffic and increasing sales.

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Matsuya Foods Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and maintains healthy margins despite a slight decline in net profitability. The balance sheet reflects a sound capital structure with manageable debt levels. However, negative free cash flow due to capital spending presents a potential risk.

Income Statement

Matsuya Foods Holdings has shown a steady revenue growth from JPY 94.5 billion in 2021 to JPY 154.2 billion in 2025, indicating robust expansion. Gross Profit Margin remained healthy at around 63.9% in 2025. However, the Net Profit Margin decreased to 1.42% in 2025 from 2.28% in 2024, reflecting higher cost pressures. Despite a modest EBIT margin of 2.86%, the company has managed to maintain positive EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 in 2025, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Equity ratio has remained stable, showing sound financial health. Return on Equity decreased from 6.64% in 2024 to 4.79% in 2025, indicating a slight decline in efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved to 3.73 in 2025, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow has turned negative in 2025, largely due to high capital expenditures, which could pose liquidity challenges if not managed carefully.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	163.12B	154.22B	127.61B	106.60B	94.47B	94.41B
Gross Profit	103.50B	98.59B	84.00B	70.74B	61.51B	62.67B
EBITDA	10.84B	10.16B	9.32B	6.58B	7.23B	1.54B
Net Income	2.72B	2.19B	2.92B	1.26B	1.11B	-2.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	106.69B	104.16B	91.12B	79.70B	76.96B	74.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.93B	16.87B	19.12B	14.88B	13.39B	13.69B
Total Debt	40.29B	35.37B	26.59B	21.12B	20.37B	22.39B
Total Liabilities	60.78B	58.54B	47.25B	38.29B	36.36B	34.42B
Stockholders Equity	45.91B	45.62B	43.87B	41.40B	40.59B	40.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-6.20B	4.08B	2.75B	3.55B	-5.38B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	8.32B	13.24B	8.65B	8.84B	533.02M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-17.76B	-11.89B	-6.57B	-5.70B	-6.22B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	7.14B	2.74B	-595.65M	-3.46B	7.72B

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6490.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9887, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6490 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6312.00, above the 50-day MA of 6452.80, and above the 200-day MA of 6223.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -216.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9887.

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3087	70 Outperform	¥128.27B	14.74	―	2.09%	5.78%	10.26%
8153	70 Outperform	¥128.12B	20.09	―	0.70%	5.15%	47.13%
7630	66 Neutral	¥141.58B	43.18	―	1.71%	9.51%	6.29%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
2695	58 Neutral	¥143.16B	225.93	―	0.63%	4.32%	11.78%
9887	57 Neutral	¥114.96B	15.35	―	0.37%	20.44%	13.71%
9861	53 Neutral	¥198.92B	72.52	―	0.69%	10.75%	-14.28%

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Matsuya Foods to Issue New Shares to Fund Aggressive Store Expansion

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd., a diversified Japanese restaurant operator centered on its Matsuya beef-on-rice and Matsunoya tonkatsu chains, continues to expand its multi-brand portfolio across Japan and overseas. The group is actively investing in new outlets, store renovations and production facilities to strengthen competitiveness and capture rising demand for convenient dining.

The company has approved a public offering of 1.4 million new common shares to fund capital expenditures for opening additional stores via loans to key subsidiaries. Proceeds will support accelerated outlet rollouts, integration of the recently acquired ramen operator Matsufuji Corp., and operational efficiency gains, underpinning Matsuya Foods’ push for sustainable growth and a more robust financial base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9887) stock is a Hold with a Yen6888.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9887 Stock Forecast page.

Matsuya Foods Lifts Full-Year Forecast on Strong Existing-Store Sales

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. has revised its full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026, projecting higher net sales, operating profit, ordinary profit, and profit attributable to owners of parent than previously announced. The company now expects net sales of 182.4 billion yen and profit attributable to owners of parent of 2.95 billion yen, implying a record-high level of operating, ordinary, and bottom-line profits.

Management attributes the upward revision primarily to stronger-than-expected sales at existing stores, which are improving cost efficiency by diluting fixed expenses over a larger revenue base. This performance strengthens Matsuya Foods Holdings’ earnings profile and suggests improved operational leverage, enhancing its positioning in the competitive restaurant sector and offering a more favorable outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9887) stock is a Hold with a Yen6888.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9887 Stock Forecast page.

Matsuya Foods Lifts Profit, Upgrades Full-Year Outlook on Strong Nine-Month Results

Matsuya Foods Holdings reported strong results for the nine months to December 31, 2025, with net sales up 20.5% to ¥136.7 billion and operating profit jumping 53.0% to ¥6.4 billion, lifting profit attributable to owners of parent by 52.4% to ¥3.3 billion. Total assets expanded to ¥125.4 billion while the equity ratio declined to 38.6%, and the company maintained its dividend plan of ¥24 per share for the full year and raised its full-year earnings forecast, signaling confidence in continued growth.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Matsuya now projects net sales of ¥182.4 billion, up 18.3% year on year, and a 47.5% surge in operating profit to ¥6.5 billion, with basic earnings per share expected to reach ¥154.75. The upgraded outlook, coupled with robust interim profitability, suggests improving operational efficiency and a solid recovery trajectory in Japan’s restaurant sector, supporting shareholder returns through stable dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9887) stock is a Hold with a Yen6888.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9887 Stock Forecast page.

Matsuya Foods Finalizes Matsufuji Subsidiary Takeover, Plans Goodwill Amortization

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. has completed the acquisition of all shares of Matsufuji Corporation, making it a wholly owned subsidiary and consolidating control over the group’s business management structure. Following the transaction, President Kazutoshi Kawarabuki has been appointed as President and Representative Director of Matsufuji, while former president Kazushige Takeda will remain involved as an advisor; the deal is expected to generate approximately ¥7.6 billion in goodwill amortized over about 10 years, with the company planning to announce the resulting impact on consolidated financial results by March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9887) stock is a Hold with a Yen6448.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9887 Stock Forecast page.

Matsuya Foods Expands into Ramen Market with Matsufuji Acquisition

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of Matsufuji Corporation, a ramen chain operator with 111 stores in the Kanto region, to make it a subsidiary. This strategic move is part of Matsuya’s medium- to long-term strategy to enhance corporate value by diversifying its brand portfolio and expanding into the ramen market. The acquisition is expected to create synergies by combining Matsuya’s operational expertise with Matsufuji’s product development and brand management capabilities, potentially leading to sustainable business growth and improved profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9887) stock is a Hold with a Yen6448.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9887 Stock Forecast page.