Greenland Resort Company Limited (9656) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥6.29B
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: <0.01%
• EPS Growth: 23.81%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 206
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 12.67
• Shares Outstanding: 10,346,683
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,330
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,333
• PEG Ratio: -1.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.98
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥623.00 ▲(1.47% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened 2025 fundamentals—sharp revenue contraction and negative free cash flow—despite sustained profitability and moderate leverage. Technicals are largely neutral with slightly negative momentum, while valuation is relatively reasonable (P/E ~12.9) with a modest dividend yield (~2.47%), providing partial support.

Positive Factors

Sustained Profitability

The company reported positive net income each year from 2022–2025, indicating an underlying return to profitable operations after prior disruption. Multi-year profitability supports internally funded operations, reduces insolvency risk, and provides a base for reinvestment or shareholder distributions over the medium term.

Solid Operating & EBITDA Margins

Maintaining ~11% operating and ~17% EBITDA margins in 2025 shows the core resort business retains structural profitability and some pricing or cost control. Durable margins provide a buffer versus top-line volatility, supporting margin sustainability and the ability to generate operating earnings through business cycles.

Moderate Leverage & Equity Base

Leverage at approximately 0.6x equity, improved from earlier periods, leaves room to absorb shocks and access additional financing if needed. A sizable equity base enhances balance-sheet resilience, lowering default risk and preserving strategic flexibility for capex or restructuring over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp Revenue Decline

A roughly 43% year-over-year revenue drop in 2025 materially weakens the business's top-line foundation. Large revenue swings strain fixed-cost absorption, increase earnings volatility, and can persist if demand or market positioning worsens, threatening medium-term cash generation and recovery timelines.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow swung to negative in 2025 even though net income stayed positive, signalling poor cash conversion. Persistent negative FCF elevates funding risk, may force external borrowing or asset sales, and limits capacity for capital spending or dividends unless cash generation normalizes.

Low Returns on Equity

Mid-single-digit ROE over multiple years suggests the balance sheet is not being converted into strong shareholder returns. This structural weakness points to low asset efficiency or pricing power, making it harder to compound equity value and attract long-term investors seeking higher returns.

Greenland Resort Company Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greenland Resort Company Limited engages in the tourism and hotel businesses in Japan. The company manages amusement parks, golf courses, and sports facilities. It is also involved in restaurant management and real estate businesses. The company was formerly known as Greenland Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Greenland Resort Company Limited in July 2006. Greenland Resort Company Limited was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Arao, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenland Resort Company Limited generates revenue primarily through its hospitality services, which include room bookings, food and beverage sales, and leisure activities offered at its resorts. The company earns income from both direct consumers and corporate clients, with significant revenue coming from vacation packages and event hosting services. Additionally, partnerships with travel agencies and online booking platforms contribute to its earnings by expanding its reach to potential guests. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs also play a role in driving repeat business and attracting new customers, further solidifying the company's revenue streams.

Greenland Resort Company Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability recovered with positive net income across 2022–2025 and solid 2025 operating/EBITDA margins (~11%/~17%), and leverage is moderate (debt ~0.6x equity). Offsetting this, 2025 revenue fell sharply (~-43% vs. 2024) and cash flow quality deteriorated with negative free cash flow despite positive earnings, raising reliability and funding-risk concerns.

Income Statement

Profitability has normalized after pandemic-era losses, with positive net income from 2022–2025 and healthy operating profitability (2025 operating profit margin ~11% and EBITDA margin ~17%). However, momentum weakened in 2025: revenue fell sharply (about -43% vs. 2024) and margins compressed modestly versus 2023–2024, suggesting higher volatility and less reliable earnings power than peers with steadier top-line trends.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for the sector, with debt around 0.6x equity in 2025 (improving from higher levels earlier in the period), and equity remains sizable relative to the asset base. The main drawback is that returns on equity have been modest in the profitable years shown (roughly mid-single-digits in 2022–2024), implying the balance sheet is not being converted into strong shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become less reliable: operating cash flow declined from 2022–2024 and was lower again in 2025, while 2025 free cash flow turned negative despite positive earnings. The conversion of operating cash flow relative to net income is weak in 2025, and the swing from positive free cash flow (2022–2024) to negative (2025) increases execution and funding risk if the downturn persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.48B	6.45B	6.41B	6.41B	5.73B	5.75B
Gross Profit	1.48B	1.43B	1.45B	1.54B	1.37B	583.08M
EBITDA	1.14B	1.09B	1.11B	1.21B	1.09B	430.53M
Net Income	543.06M	487.13M	534.23M	463.69M	428.36M	-1.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.12B	20.10B	19.10B	18.94B	19.32B	19.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	312.58M	506.76M	400.87M	365.56M	697.26M	691.49M
Total Debt	5.86B	6.47B	5.55B	5.55B	6.20B	7.03B
Total Liabilities	8.84B	9.56B	8.93B	9.13B	9.91B	10.48B
Stockholders Equity	10.28B	10.54B	10.18B	9.81B	9.41B	9.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-434.61M	239.75M	481.25M	970.30M	759.60M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	666.60M	791.60M	1.00B	1.28B	950.57M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.26B	-527.45M	-461.64M	-313.88M	-194.37M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	694.73M	-228.84M	-870.44M	-964.34M	-541.03M

Greenland Resort Company Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 614.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9656, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 614 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 607.85, above the 50-day MA of 608.04, and above the 200-day MA of 613.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:9656.

Greenland Resort Company Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5261	79 Outperform	¥46.00B	6.30	―	1.42%	10.96%	75.10%
9723	69 Neutral	¥8.26B	2.04	―	0.48%	4.02%	-9.38%
6040	66 Neutral	¥21.13B	7.10	―	0.76%	20.69%	17.46%
4681	63 Neutral	¥395.96B	21.16	10.65%	1.64%	14.75%	22.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
9656	55 Neutral	¥6.29B	12.92	―	2.41%	<0.01%	23.81%
9720	53 Neutral	¥6.50B	37.82	―	0.39%	10.52%	-31.01%