RENOVA (9519) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥67.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 560.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: 28.85%
• EPS Growth: -9.70%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 287
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 3.55
• Shares Outstanding: 91,245,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 466,670
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 560,246
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 16.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥98.40B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥693.00 ▲(7.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by financial profile risks—especially high leverage and uneven cash conversion—offset by solid revenue growth and positive free cash flow. Technically, the stock shows a weak trend below major moving averages, while valuation is a relative positive with a low P/E.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth

Material top-line expansion demonstrates durable demand for RENOVA's renewable assets and services. Sustained revenue growth supports scale economies, capacity additions and contract leverage, improving long-term cash generation potential even if year-to-year project timing varies.

Positive free cash flow profile

Consistent positive free cash flow provides a durable internal funding source for maintenance capex, project reinvestment and debt service. Growing FCF reduces dependency on external financing and underpins the firm's ability to fund operations through project cycles.

Healthy operating margins

Relatively strong gross and EBITDA margins indicate operational efficiency and favorable project economics in RENOVA's renewable-utility portfolio. Durable margin levers support cash flow resilience and the ability to weather commodity or pricing variability across projects.

Negative Factors

High financial leverage

Elevated debt-to-equity materially limits financial flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity and raises refinancing risk. In a capital-intensive renewable business, high leverage constrains ability to invest, prolongs deleveraging and amplifies downside in weaker cash flow periods.

Inconsistent cash conversion

Subpar cash conversion and historic FCF variability point to working-capital timing and project-cycle effects that can strain liquidity. This reduces reliability of internally generated funds for capex and debt reduction, increasing dependence on external financing at inopportune times.

Margins and earnings volatility

Normalization from peak margins suggests earnings are sensitive to project mix and timing. Such volatility complicates forecasting, increases execution risk for growth projects, and can impair consistent returns on equity—important for long-term investor and creditor confidence.

RENOVA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

RENOVA, Inc. operates in the renewable energy industry in Japan. It operates through Renewable Energy Power Generation Business and Renewable Energy Development and Operation Business segments. The Renewable Energy Power Generation Business segment generates and sells electricity from renewable energy power plants. The Renewable Energy Development and Operation Business segment develops and assists in the operation of renewable energy power plants. The company generates electricity through solar, biomass, wind, geothermal and hydro power plants. RENOVA, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

RENOVA generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced by its solar power plants. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities and large corporations, ensuring a stable income stream. Additionally, RENOVA may earn income from government incentives and subsidies related to renewable energy production. The firm also engages in project financing and may partner with other energy companies or investors, which can enhance its capital resources and expand its operational capacity.

RENOVA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and current profitability are solid and free cash flow is positive, but the balance sheet is highly leveraged (debt-to-equity ~3.16x) and cash conversion is mixed with historically inconsistent free cash flow, increasing financial risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is strong (about 10.9%), with healthy profitability (gross margin ~28.5%, EBITDA margin ~39.3%, net margin ~8.5%). However, margins and earnings quality look less robust versus prior annual peaks (notably much higher margins in FY2024), suggesting profitability has become more normalized and potentially more volatile from year to year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint: TTM debt-to-equity is high (~3.16x), even though it has improved from very elevated levels in earlier years. Equity has grown, but the capital structure is still debt-heavy for the business, and return on equity is modest in TTM (~6.8%), which limits financial flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with TTM operating cash flow (~¥26.4B) and free cash flow (~¥18.3B), and free cash flow is growing (about 4.6%). That said, operating cash flow covers only ~55% of net income in TTM and free cash flow is ~69% of net income, pointing to less-than-ideal cash conversion and some dependence on working-capital/timing effects; historically, free cash flow has also been inconsistent (negative in FY2022–FY2023).

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.63B	70.25B	44.75B	33.58B	29.34B	20.55B
Gross Profit	24.44B	17.65B	27.34B	23.61B	22.29B	18.41B
EBITDA	33.62B	25.47B	26.88B	17.15B	18.53B	21.54B
Net Income	7.24B	2.69B	8.86B	2.68B	1.58B	11.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	599.06B	530.05B	465.40B	303.38B	296.22B	220.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	86.48B	87.47B	66.49B	49.63B	44.28B	40.36B
Total Debt	354.96B	332.92B	306.87B	206.08B	207.10B	160.41B
Total Liabilities	426.43B	396.63B	359.70B	238.65B	243.78B	195.68B
Stockholders Equity	112.32B	89.11B	68.00B	42.95B	31.89B	15.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.33B	23.00B	2.82B	-804.00M	-3.35B	6.85B
Operating Cash Flow	26.43B	31.50B	18.73B	10.13B	12.15B	12.47B
Investing Cash Flow	-18.14B	-16.50B	-24.35B	-9.33B	-18.52B	-13.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-14.72B	-8.29B	1.38B	3.03B	3.37B	9.78B

RENOVA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 642.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9519, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 642 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 721.95, below the 50-day MA of 700.76, and below the 200-day MA of 759.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9519.

RENOVA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9513	82 Outperform	¥682.77B	6.98	7.92%	3.22%	-1.56%	9.17%
9509	71 Outperform	¥252.64B	4.33	14.57%	2.36%	-1.60%	-10.41%
9504	69 Neutral	¥392.15B	4.35	15.45%	3.23%	-1.02%	79.80%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
9511	63 Neutral	¥64.63B	10.32	4.73%	2.31%	-1.96%	33.15%
9517	55 Neutral	¥57.42B	39.99	―	1.79%	-15.80%	―
9519	53 Neutral	¥67.21B	9.24	6.76%	―	28.85%	-9.70%

RENOVA Corporate Events

RENOVA Flags Policy and Environmental Risks in Q3 FY2026 Supplementary Disclosure

RENOVA released supplementary material on its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, emphasizing that the information is for corporate disclosure rather than investment solicitation and that figures are based on consolidated data with power capacity shown on a DC basis. The company underscores significant uncertainty around its forward-looking statements, noting that its performance and project outcomes may be materially affected by changes in energy policy, regulatory schemes, permitting, land and facility development, and environmental factors, highlighting the operational and strategic risks that stakeholders must consider when evaluating its outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen728.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Swings to Profit on Renewables Growth, Lifts Full‑Year Forecasts

RENOVA reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 31.6% year on year to ¥64.0 billion and EBITDA jumping 45.6%, driven by improved profitability in its power generation portfolio, including contributions from newly consolidated Karatsu Biomass Energy G.K. Operating profit more than tripled and profit attributable to owners of the parent swung to a ¥3.6 billion gain from a loss a year earlier, bolstering equity and lifting the equity ratio to 18.7%, though the company continues to refrain from paying dividends and guides to full‑year revenue of ¥90.5 billion and EBITDA of ¥31.6 billion, with a relatively modest full‑year profit forecast suggesting ongoing investment and earnings volatility in its growth-focused renewable energy strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen728.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA’s December Power Sales Beat Plan as Biomass Expansion Drives Strong Growth

RENOVA reported that its renewable energy power plants in Japan generated 306.4 million kWh of electricity in December 2025, slightly exceeding its plan by 1.0%, with year-on-year output for the month up 54.4% and year-to-date generation rising 145.0% versus the previous year. The strong growth reflects expanded biomass capacity, steady performance from its solar and geothermal assets, and only minor impact from utility-imposed output curtailment, which reduced total annual planned revenue by just 0.113%, underscoring the resilience of RENOVA’s generation portfolio and the limited financial effect of grid-related restrictions so far in the current fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Restructures Organization and Management to Bolster Renewable Energy Competitiveness

RENOVA will merge its Project Development and Green Transformation divisions to create an integrated electricity sales framework that combines all of its power sources, aiming to better meet customer demand, allocate resources more flexibly amid intensifying domestic competition, and strengthen solution proposals by sharing expertise across different technologies. In conjunction with this reorganization, the company is reshuffling its management structure effective January 1, 2026, including appointing Naoki Okada as Executive Officer in charge of the Green Transformation Division, adjusting CEO Yosuke Kiminami’s scope of responsibility, and implementing several executive departures, signaling a strategic push to streamline governance and reinforce competitiveness in Japan’s renewable energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Reports November 2025 Electricity Sales with Notable Growth

RENOVA, Inc. reported its electricity sales for November 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.5% from planned figures and a significant year-over-year growth of 78.7%. Despite some output curtailment due to control instructions from Each Electric Powers, Incorporated, the impact on the company’s financial forecast remains minor, indicating resilience in its operations and strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Reports No Damage from Aomori Earthquake

RENOVA, Inc. announced that the recent earthquake off the east coast of Aomori Prefecture did not cause any damage to its solar PV and biomass power plants in the Tohoku region. The company assured stakeholders that it will provide updates if any future developments occur that may impact its financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Secures Loan for Non-FIT Solar PV Expansion

RENOVA, Inc. has announced that its subsidiary, First Solar Power G.K., has executed a loan agreement with financial covenants to support project financing for its Non-FIT solar PV projects. This agreement is part of RENOVA’s strategy to expand its Non-FIT solar PV business, which is crucial for achieving its Medium-term Management Plan 2030 goals. The project finance arrangement covers approximately 170MW of the total 206MW capacity under existing PPAs, supporting the company’s aim to reach a total capacity of 5.0GW by the fiscal year ending March 2031. The impact on the current fiscal year’s financial results is expected to be minor.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Reports October 2025 Electricity Sales with Strong Year-Over-Year Growth

RENOVA, Inc. reported its electricity sales figures for October 2025, highlighting a 5.9% decrease from planned sales but a significant 57% year-over-year increase. Despite minor output curtailment affecting revenue, the company remains on track with its annual revenue plan, reflecting strong growth and resilience in the renewable energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen887.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.