Yamato Holdings Co (9064) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥656.40B
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 978.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: 5.58%
• EPS Growth: 114.23%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 177,430
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 360,496,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,159,640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 978,293
• PEG Ratio: 4.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: -91.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,071.43
• Price Target Upside: -1.78% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,933.00 ▼(-8.35% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (price below major moving averages and bearish momentum). Financial performance is stable but not strong due to compressed margins and weak cash conversion despite the revenue rebound, while valuation is broadly neutral with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Rebound

A 152.3% TTM revenue gain signals a durable top‑line rebound in core parcel and logistics volumes. Sustained higher volumes improve network utilization, support contractual winbacks with corporate shippers, and provide a foundation for steady service revenue over the next several months.

Reasonable Balance Sheet Capitalization

A sizeable equity base and moderate D/E (~0.42) provide financial capacity to absorb shocks, fund incremental investments or working capital, and maintain service levels. This capitalization supports operational continuity and strategic flexibility in a capital‑intensive logistics network.

Positive Free Cash Flow Recovery

Positive operating cash flow (~¥69B) and restored FCF (~¥16B) reflect improving cash generation after a weak prior period. Durable cash inflows allow funding of maintenance capex, dividend payouts and targeted network improvements without immediate reliance on new external financing.

Negative Factors

Compressed Profit Margins

Gross and net margins remain thin versus historical levels, reducing underlying earnings power. Persistent margin compression limits reinvestment capacity and makes earnings sensitive to cost inflation or pricing pressure in last‑mile operations, weighing on sustainable profitability.

Weak Cash Conversion

FCF at roughly 24% of net income indicates profits are not fully converting to cash, likely from working capital or timing effects. Weak conversion reduces durable financial flexibility to pay down debt, smooth dividends, or invest without external funding if margins remain pressured.

Rising Leverage Trend

The upward shift in leverage to ~0.42 from prior lower ranges signals reduced balance‑sheet headroom. Increasing debt levels heighten refinancing and interest risk, constraining capital allocation if operating margins deteriorate or investment needs rise in the medium term.

Yamato Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides delivery, logistics, home convenience, e-business, financial, auto works, and other related services in Japan, North America, and internationally. The company's Delivery segment offers small parcel delivery services, such as door-to-door parcel delivery and posting services. Its BIZ-Logistics segment provides intercompany logistics services to B2B supply-chain management market. The company's Home Convenience segment offers lifestyle support services, including moving and household effects delivery services. Its e-Business segment provides information services comprising ASP services and information systems development for business markets. The company's Financial segment offers settlement and collection services to customers and business customers. Its Autoworks segment provides vehicle maintenance and fuel supply services for transport companies. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Yamato Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around its parcel delivery services. The biggest revenue driver is the 'Ta-Q-Bin' service, which provides door-to-door delivery for both individuals and businesses, capitalizing on the growing e-commerce market. In addition to parcel delivery, the company earns income from logistics solutions, which include warehousing, inventory management, and transportation services for corporate clients. Yamato also has partnerships with various e-commerce platforms and retailers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. The company benefits from a loyal customer base and a strong brand reputation in Japan, contributing to consistent revenue growth. Furthermore, Yamato Holdings has increasingly focused on technological advancements and operational efficiencies to reduce costs and improve service delivery, which also positively impacts its profit margins.

Yamato Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth (+152.3%) but profitability is modest (gross margin ~4.7%, net margin ~1.8%) and below prior years, indicating margin pressure. Balance sheet is reasonably capitalized (debt-to-equity ~0.42) but leverage has increased versus earlier periods. Cash flow improved to positive free cash flow (~¥16B), yet cash conversion is weak (FCF ~24% of net income).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew strongly (+152.3%), but profitability is modest with a ~4.7% gross margin and ~1.8% net margin. Compared with earlier annual periods, margins have compressed meaningfully (net margin ~3.1% in 2021 vs. ~1.8% in TTM), suggesting higher costs and/or pricing pressure despite the top-line rebound. Operating profitability remains positive (EBIT margin ~3.0% and EBITDA margin ~5.9%), but overall earnings power looks thinner than the company’s historical levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate with TTM debt-to-equity at ~0.42 and equity at ~¥585B, indicating a reasonably capitalized balance sheet. However, leverage has risen versus prior annual periods (debt-to-equity ~0.08–0.31 from 2021–2025 annual), which reduces flexibility if margins stay pressured. Returns on equity are steady but not high (TTM ~7.7%), reflecting moderate profitability on a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in TTM with operating cash flow of ~¥69B and free cash flow of ~¥16B, a clear improvement from 2025 annual when free cash flow was negative. That said, cash conversion is currently weak: free cash flow is only ~24% of net income in TTM, implying profits are not translating into cash as efficiently as desired. The sharp free-cash-flow growth rate mainly reflects a rebound from a weak prior period, so durability still needs to be proven.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.86T	1.76T	1.76T	1.80T	1.79T	1.70T
Gross Profit	86.35B	67.05B	92.16B	113.43B	139.53B	157.34B
EBITDA	109.58B	105.44B	97.54B	99.35B	117.39B	141.40B
Net Income	34.25B	37.94B	37.63B	45.90B	55.96B	56.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.32T	1.27T	1.14T	1.11T	1.09T	1.09T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	165.70B	208.65B	195.06B	185.37B	182.64B	241.52B
Total Debt	247.82B	180.99B	92.53B	48.27B	45.89B	65.15B
Total Liabilities	725.59B	667.07B	543.91B	491.16B	488.62B	505.71B
Stockholders Equity	584.71B	589.26B	585.75B	610.38B	590.54B	576.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.48B	-7.26B	32.38B	54.52B	11.24B	91.85B
Operating Cash Flow	69.05B	47.73B	64.33B	89.95B	52.02B	123.92B
Investing Cash Flow	-8.49B	-43.87B	-22.43B	-49.42B	-58.94B	44.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-100.06B	9.42B	-30.78B	-38.62B	-54.46B	-123.25B

Yamato Holdings Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2109.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9064, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2109 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1896.82, above the 50-day MA of 2041.20, and below the 200-day MA of 2144.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -44.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:9064.

Yamato Holdings Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9039	74 Outperform	¥121.99B	14.06	―	3.57%	3.00%	5.43%
9075	72 Outperform	¥226.68B	15.51	2.26%	1.66%	5.50%	-26.63%
9057	70 Outperform	¥28.43B	12.77	―	2.82%	2.47%	2.85%
9060	69 Neutral	¥6.81B	9.27	―	1.62%	8.03%	67.38%
9076	64 Neutral	¥397.33B	17.27	5.53%	4.35%	22.07%	86.12%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
9064	54 Neutral	¥656.40B	17.87	7.44%	2.10%	5.58%	114.23%

Yamato Holdings Co Corporate Events

Yamato Holdings Cuts Full-Year Earnings Forecast on Weaker Parcel Volumes and Cost Pressures

Yamato Holdings has cut its consolidated forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, lowering expected operating revenue to ¥1.86 trillion and slashing operating profit and ordinary profit projections to ¥28 billion and ¥27 billion, respectively, with profit attributable to owners of the parent now seen at ¥15 billion. The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected shipment volumes from large corporate customers amid inflation-driven declines in consumer sentiment and Yamato’s deliberate restriction of low-margin parcels to prioritize profitability; while pricing optimization has lifted TA-Q-BIN unit prices as planned, reduced volumes, higher procurement costs, and lower transportation efficiency are squeezing margins, signaling operational headwinds and a more challenging earnings outlook for stakeholders compared with prior guidance and the previous year’s results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2061.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamato Holdings Co stock, see the JP:9064 Stock Forecast page.

Yamato Holdings Lifts Revenue and Operating Profit but Cuts Full-Year Net Earnings Outlook

Yamato Holdings reported consolidated operating revenue of ¥1,438.8 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 7.0% year on year, with operating profit jumping 46.9% and ordinary profit rising 43.3%, indicating a marked recovery in core profitability. However, profit attributable to owners of the parent declined 12.8% to ¥25.2 billion, and the equity-to-asset ratio slipped to 44.3% from 46.5%, pointing to some pressure on the balance sheet even as revenue and operating earnings improve. The company maintained its interim dividend at ¥23 per share and kept its full-year dividend forecast at ¥46 per share, while revising its full-year earnings outlook: it now expects a 5.5% increase in full-year operating revenue to ¥1,860.0 billion and a near-doubling of operating profit to ¥28.0 billion, but a 60.5% drop in full-year profit attributable to owners of the parent to ¥15.0 billion, suggesting that extraordinary factors or structural costs will weigh on net income despite stronger operating performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2061.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamato Holdings Co stock, see the JP:9064 Stock Forecast page.

Yamato Holdings to Appoint TA-Q-BIN Chief Sakurai as New President in 2026 Leadership Overhaul

Yamato Holdings has announced a major reshuffle of its top management, with current Representative Director, Executive Officer and President Yutaka Nagao becoming Representative Director and Chairman on April 1, 2026, while Chairman Toshizo Kurisu will shift to Representative Director before retiring as a director at the conclusion of the company’s 161st Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders expected in June 2026. At the same time, Yamato Transport Managing Executive Officer Toshiyuki Sakurai, who currently oversees the group’s core TA-Q-BIN business, will be promoted to Executive Officer and President of Yamato Holdings from April 1 and is slated to assume the role of Representative Director and President following shareholder and board approval at the June 2026 meeting, signaling a generational leadership transition and a new officer structure designed to support the next phase of the logistics group’s growth and strategic execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamato Holdings Co stock, see the JP:9064 Stock Forecast page.