Matsui Securities Co (8628) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥245.75B
• Dividend Yield: 5.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 922.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 3.27%
• EPS Growth: -1.81%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 119
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 17.60
• Shares Outstanding: 259,264,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 909,340
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 922,136
• PEG Ratio: 2.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,047.00 ▲(22.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/30/25

Matsui Securities Co's overall stock score is driven primarily by its solid financial performance and attractive valuation. The company shows strong revenue growth and profitability, although cash flow volatility is a concern. The technical analysis suggests a lack of short-term momentum, but the valuation is compelling with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth trend

Sustained ~14% revenue growth indicates expanding client activity and product uptake. Over 2-6 months this supports rising fee and financing income, enabling reinvestment in platform features and scale economies that can reinforce competitive position and long-term top-line resilience.

Robust profitability and margins

Consistently strong gross and operating margins reflect efficient cost structure and scalable digital operations. Durable margins provide buffer through market cycles, fund dividend distributions, and permit reinvestment in customer tools without immediate dependence on volatile trading volumes.

Digital retail brokerage market position

A focused online retail brokerage model aligns with structural secular demand for digital trading and self-directed investing. Low-touch, scalable distribution lowers marginal costs per user and supports diversified fee and financing streams (commissions, margin, fund distribution) over time.

Negative Factors

Cash flow volatility

Intermittent negative operating cash flow and fluctuating free cash flow reduce financial flexibility to fund growth, cover liabilities, or smooth dividends. Over months this raises refinancing and liquidity risk, forcing reliance on financing activities during downturns.

Rising leverage and liabilities

An uptick in total debt and elevated liabilities constrains balance sheet flexibility and amplifies downside in market stress. Higher leverage increases sensitivity to funding cost moves and may limit strategic investments or require capital-raising under adverse conditions.

Revenue cyclicality and competitive pressure

Business relies on trading volumes, margin balances and retail risk appetite, making revenues cyclical. Persistent competitive pricing in online brokerage can compress fees. Together they weight long-term revenue visibility and make earnings vulnerable to market downturns.

Matsui Securities Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. provides online securities brokerage services to retail investors in Japan. It offers brokerage services of stocks, futures, and options; services for underwriting, offering, and secondary distribution and solicitation for selling; and foreign exchange margin trading services, as well as sells investment trusts. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Matsui Securities generates revenue primarily through trading commissions charged to clients for executing buy and sell orders on their platform. This commission-based model is a significant source of income, especially given the high volume of retail trading activities in Japan. Additionally, the company earns revenue from spreads in foreign exchange trading, which involves the difference between buying and selling prices for currency pairs. Matsui also offers various investment products, such as mutual funds and margin trading services, which contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, the company may partner with financial institutions and technology providers to enhance its service offerings, thereby increasing customer satisfaction and retention, which in turn drives revenue growth.

Matsui Securities Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Matsui Securities Co demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, backed by efficient operations. The balance sheet indicates financial stability but highlights potential risks due to high leverage. Cash flow management shows volatility, requiring focus on improving cash generation. Overall, the company is in a stable financial position but should address cash flow challenges to ensure long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Matsui Securities Co has shown a solid revenue growth trajectory with a notable increase in total revenue over the years. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting efficient cost management. Net profit margin has remained healthy, although there were fluctuations reflecting market conditions. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. However, the increasing total debt and high level of total liabilities might pose potential risks. The equity ratio is stable, ensuring some level of financial stability. Return on equity shows effective use of shareholder funds, although there are risks associated with high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates volatility, with periods of negative operating cash flow, reflecting challenges in cash generation. Free cash flow has shown significant fluctuations, indicating potential liquidity issues. Despite this, the company has managed financing effectively, balancing cash inflows and outflows.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.41B	39.23B	36.86B	31.12B	33.28B	32.17B
Gross Profit	9.79B	37.16B	35.31B	28.46B	32.10B	30.77B
EBITDA	5.59B	18.63B	17.24B	13.75B	18.85B	16.94B
Net Income	2.87B	10.50B	9.79B	7.82B	11.44B	10.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.16T	1.12T	1.17T	976.03B	879.39B	961.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	119.34B	105.70B	104.47B	79.33B	57.30B	620.96B
Total Debt	272.58B	313.93B	50.00M	259.50B	189.26B	217.36B
Total Liabilities	1.09T	1.05T	1.10T	899.67B	800.67B	882.58B
Stockholders Equity	75.40B	76.60B	76.33B	76.35B	78.72B	79.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-113.86B	-11.47B	-18.99B	47.51B	-114.99B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-113.43B	-5.92B	-15.53B	50.82B	-111.93B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-4.37B	-8.88B	-4.28B	67.00M	-1.61B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	53.20B	8.62B	41.92B	-50.37B	117.99B

Matsui Securities Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 855.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8628, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 855 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 932.60, below the 50-day MA of 898.18, and above the 200-day MA of 778.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8628.

Matsui Securities Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8707	81 Outperform	¥92.66B	10.06	―	5.75%	10.85%	30.77%
8609	80 Outperform	¥220.33B	14.35	―	4.01%	-2.39%	-4.54%
8601	76 Outperform	¥2.23T	14.80	9.37%	4.13%	-0.87%	6.88%
8628	69 Neutral	¥245.75B	18.80	14.00%	5.13%	3.27%	-1.81%
8604	69 Neutral	¥4.29T	12.30	10.65%	3.93%	-2.45%	35.60%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8698	43 Neutral	¥188.60B	21.40	-3.97%	4.16%	14.69%	-114.36%

Matsui Securities Co Corporate Events

Matsui Securities Posts Double-Digit Profit Growth and Hikes Interim Dividend

Matsui Securities reported strong non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising 25.6% year on year to ¥37.3 billion and ordinary profit climbing 36.0% to ¥16.9 billion, while profit increased 30.5% to ¥11.1 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥42.98. Total assets expanded to ¥1.28 trillion and equity edged up to ¥77.3 billion despite a modest decline in the equity-to-asset ratio, and the company raised its interim dividend to ¥25 per share for the current fiscal year, though the year-end payout remains undecided, underscoring both its improved earnings power and the continued sensitivity of its business to market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8628) stock is a Hold with a Yen965.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsui Securities Co stock, see the JP:8628 Stock Forecast page.

Matsui Securities Posts Double-Digit Profit Growth for Nine Months to December 2025

Matsui Securities reported strong non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising 25.6% year on year to ¥37.3 billion and net operating revenue up 23.4%. Operating profit climbed 32.3% to ¥16.5 billion, ordinary profit increased 36.0% to ¥16.9 billion, and profit grew 30.5% to ¥11.1 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥42.98. Total assets expanded to ¥1.28 trillion from ¥1.12 trillion at the prior fiscal year-end, while net assets edged up to ¥77.6 billion, though the equity-to-asset ratio slipped to 6.0%. The company paid an interim dividend of ¥25 per share for the current fiscal year, up from ¥22 in the previous year, but has left the year-end dividend forecast undecided, citing the high sensitivity of its performance to market conditions and its policy of not issuing earnings forecasts.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8628) stock is a Hold with a Yen972.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matsui Securities Co stock, see the JP:8628 Stock Forecast page.