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Nomura Holdings (JP:8604)
:8604

Nomura Holdings (8604) AI Stock Analysis

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Nomura Holdings

(OTC:8604)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
¥966.00
▲(10.21%Upside)
Nomura Holdings' overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and attractive valuation in the market. Despite the challenges in cash flow management and high leverage, the company's solid revenue growth and operational improvements bolster its score. Technical indicators suggest potential short-term risks due to overbought conditions. The impressive earnings call results, with record-high net income and strategic achievements, further support the stock's positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Nomura's third-quarter net profit significantly exceeded both internal forecasts and consensus estimates.
Shareholder Returns
A 100-year anniversary commemorative dividend has been announced, which will lead to additional shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Investment Banking Revenue
A decline is expected in individual investors’ trading value, investment trust sales, and equity capital markets revenue in the investment banking division.
Share Buybacks
Management is cautious on share buybacks for FY3/25, and a large share buyback is not expected with the 3Q results.

Nomura Holdings (8604) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNomura Holdings, Inc. is a leading financial services group and global investment bank headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. It operates through three main business segments: Retail, Asset Management, and Wholesale, which includes Global Markets and Investment Banking. Nomura offers a wide range of services including securities brokerage, wealth management, investment advisory, underwriting, and trading. The company is renowned for its strong domestic presence in Japan and its expanding international operations.
How the Company Makes MoneyNomura Holdings generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services and activities. The Retail segment primarily earns money via commissions and fees from securities brokerage and wealth management services offered to individual clients in Japan. The Asset Management segment derives revenue from management and performance fees on investment products and funds managed on behalf of institutional and individual investors. The Wholesale segment, encompassing Global Markets and Investment Banking, contributes to revenue through trading activities, advisory fees, underwriting fees, and other related services. Nomura's earnings are significantly influenced by market conditions, client activity levels, and strategic partnerships, particularly those enhancing its global reach and product offerings.

Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong annual performance with record-high net income and significant achievements in Wealth and Investment Management. However, the fourth quarter showed declines in revenue and income across several segments, reflecting challenges in market conditions and specific revenue streams.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-High Group Net Revenue and Net Income
Group net revenue increased 21% year-on-year to 1,892.5 billion yen, while net income rose to a record-high 340.7 billion yen, marking a 2.1 times increase from the previous year.
Strong Performance in Wealth and Investment Management
Wealth Management recurring revenue grew by 30% and Investment Management business revenue saw a 20% increase, both reaching record levels.
Successful International Expansion
Profitability improved in international regions with income before income taxes reaching 137 billion yen, the highest level since geographic information disclosure began in 2003.
Increased Dividend and Share Buyback Program
Nomura announced a total year-end dividend of 34 yen per share and a share buyback program with an upper limit of 100 million shares and 60 billion yen.
Successful KPI Achievement in Wealth Management
All four key performance indicators (KPIs) in Wealth Management were exceeded, including a sharp net inflow of recurring revenue assets.
Record-High Business Revenue in Investment Management
Business revenue reached a record high for the fifth consecutive quarter, with assets under management surpassing KPI targets.
Investment Banking Achieves Highest Quarterly Net Revenue
Investment Banking net revenue was 52.3 billion yen, the highest quarterly net revenue on record since 2017.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Decline in Group Revenue and Income
Group net revenue fell 10% quarter-on-quarter to 452.7 billion yen, and income before income taxes fell 29% to 97.7 billion yen.
Challenges in Fixed Income Revenue
Fixed Income net revenue fell 24% quarter-on-quarter to 105.8 billion yen, reflecting weaker performance compared to US peers.
Wealth Management Flow Revenue Decline
Wealth Management net revenue fell 10% quarter-on-quarter, with flow revenue dropping 20% due to declines in stock subscriptions and secondary transactions.
Investment Management Revenue Decline
Investment Management net revenue decreased by 6% quarter-on-quarter, affected by a downturn in investment valuation gains.
Wholesale Performance Decline
Wholesale net revenue fell 11% to 259.2 billion yen and income before income taxes declined 40% to 37.5 billion yen.
Company Guidance
During Nomura Holdings' fourth-quarter and full-year conference call for the fiscal year ending March 2025, Chief Financial Officer Takumi Kitamura provided comprehensive financial guidance. For the full year, the company reported a 21% increase in group net revenue, reaching 1,892.5 billion yen, with income before income taxes surging 72% to 472 billion yen. Net income reached a record-high 340.7 billion yen, marking a 2.1 times increase from the previous year, translating to earnings per share of 111.03 yen and a return on equity of 10%. All three main segments showed substantial growth, with income before income taxes rising by 80% to 426.6 billion yen. Wealth Management recurring revenue grew by 30%, while Investment Management business revenue increased by 20%. A noteworthy achievement was the high level of assets under management, driven by eight consecutive quarters of net inflows. The company announced a total year-end dividend of 34 yen per share and a share buyback program with an upper limit of 100 million shares or 60 billion yen. In the fourth quarter, group net revenue fell 10% to 452.7 billion yen, while income before income taxes and net income both decreased by 29%. Despite these challenges, Nomura achieved an annualized ROE of 8.2%, surpassing their target range. The company emphasized continued efforts to enhance capital efficiency and maintain a strong financial position amidst uncertain market conditions.

Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nomura Holdings exhibits strong revenue growth and operational improvements, with a robust increase in net income and EBIT. However, the company faces challenges with cash flow management and a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial risk. While profitability metrics have strengthened, the volatility in margins and revenue growth highlight potential uncertainties.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nomura Holdings experienced a significant increase in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year, alongside a substantial rise in EBIT and net income, reflecting a strong operational performance. The gross profit margin improved markedly, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin and revenue growth rates exhibit volatility over the years, indicating some instability in earnings.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a leveraged position, which poses financial risk. However, stockholders' equity has been gradually increasing, reflecting strengthening of the financial base. The equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting limited buffer to absorb potential losses.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows impacting liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating profits into cash. Despite these issues, there has been a positive trend in cash and cash equivalents, providing some liquidity cushion.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.09T4.74T1.38T1.15T1.14T1.24T
Gross Profit
77.56B1.65T1.36T-181.27B748.88B853.11B
EBIT
328.53B471.96B273.49B89.16B163.56B159.54B
EBITDA
392.93B533.62B273.49B0.000.000.00
Net Income Common Stockholders
211.47B340.74B165.86B92.79B143.00B153.12B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.10T5.07T4.24T3.82T3.32T3.51T
Total Assets
43.05T56.80T55.15T47.77T43.41T42.52T
Total Debt
8.49T31.17T14.09T11.74T10.90T9.94T
Net Debt
5.39T26.75T8.93T7.22T6.84T5.78T
Total Liabilities
40.18T53.22T51.70T44.55T40.44T39.76T
Stockholders Equity
2.81T3.47T3.35T3.15T2.91T2.69T
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
96.82B-1.83T-13.14B-1.15T-1.48T545.89B
Operating Cash Flow
220.98B-1.64T132.64B-974.75B-1.37T665.77B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.26T260.18B-887.94B38.95B-45.30B-139.03B
Financing Cash Flow
1.24T1.68T1.01T1.29T1.07T-269.93B

Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price876.50
Price Trends
50DMA
841.99
Positive
100DMA
891.78
Negative
200DMA
850.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
13.89
Negative
RSI
60.45
Neutral
STOCH
70.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 876.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 865.39, above the 50-day MA of 841.99, and above the 200-day MA of 850.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 13.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.

Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
¥153.81B12.08
4.38%-2.66%-10.44%
74
Outperform
$1.31T8.839.63%6.03%7.08%28.63%
72
Outperform
¥49.63B7.38
6.86%6.95%21.10%
71
Outperform
¥2.58T7.899.88%6.29%13.94%109.60%
67
Neutral
¥179.17B17.0813.61%5.89%-2.58%7.21%
64
Neutral
$12.80B9.717.59%16985.66%12.07%-7.53%
51
Neutral
¥180.52B9.61-4.56%4.02%-6.94%-116.28%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8604
Nomura Holdings
887.20
-36.64
-3.97%
JP:8609
Okasan Securities Group Inc.
686.00
-88.15
-11.39%
JP:8707
IwaiCosmo Holdings, Inc.
2,131.00
28.78
1.37%
JP:8628
Matsui Securities Co
695.00
-72.26
-9.42%
JP:8601
Daiwa
973.90
-279.40
-22.29%
JP:8698
Monex Group
723.00
8.08
1.13%

Nomura Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Updates on Share Buyback Program Progress
Jun 2, 2025

Nomura Holdings, Inc. has announced the status of its share buyback program, which was initiated following a Board of Directors meeting on April 25, 2025. As of May 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 21,919,900 common shares at an aggregate cost of 19,029,171,920 yen. This move is part of a broader strategy to buy back up to 100 million shares, valued at up to 60 billion yen, by the end of the year. The buyback is conducted through the stock exchange via a trust bank, reflecting Nomura’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Holdings Issues Euro-Denominated Senior Notes
May 22, 2025

Nomura Holdings has announced the issuance of Euro-denominated senior notes under its Euro Note Programme, intended to qualify as TLAC-eligible debt. The issuance, amounting to EUR 700 million with a fixed interest rate of 3.459% per annum, is part of Nomura’s strategy to meet Japanese TLAC standards, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Finalizes Treasury Shares Disposition as Stock Awards
May 1, 2025

Nomura Holdings has finalized the details for the disposition of treasury shares as stock awards, a decision made by its Executive Management Board. The disposition involves a total of 80,059 shares of common stock, allocated to employees and executives of the company and its subsidiaries, with a total transaction value of approximately 42.8 million yen. This move is part of Nomura’s ongoing strategy to incentivize and retain key personnel, reflecting its commitment to aligning employee interests with company performance.

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Capital Adequacy Ratios
Apr 30, 2025

Nomura Holdings has reported its consolidated capital adequacy ratios, leverage ratio, and External TLAC ratios for the period ending December 31, 2024. The announcement highlights Nomura’s strong capital position, with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 16.38% and a consolidated capital adequacy ratio of 18.28%, which may positively influence its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Nomura Declares 100th Anniversary Commemorative Dividend
Apr 25, 2025

Nomura Holdings announced a year-end dividend of 34 yen per share, which includes a 100th anniversary commemorative dividend of 10 yen per share for shareholders recorded as of March 31, 2025. This dividend, to be paid on June 2, 2025, reflects a significant increase from the previous year, highlighting Nomura’s strong financial performance and commitment to rewarding its shareholders.

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Financial Growth and Increased Dividends
Apr 25, 2025

Nomura Holdings reported significant financial growth for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with a 13.9% increase in total revenue and a 105.4% rise in net income attributable to shareholders. The company also announced a substantial increase in dividends per share, reflecting a strong return on shareholders’ equity and improved financial performance, which could enhance its market position and stakeholder value.

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Financial Results and Strategic Expansion
Apr 25, 2025

Nomura Holdings reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ending March 31, 2025, with a 72% year-on-year rise in group pretax income to 472 billion yen. The company achieved record high pretax income in its international operations and saw strong performance across its core divisions, including the best wealth management results in 11 years and the highest investment management pretax income since 2021. The firm also announced a strategic acquisition of Macquarie’s U.S. and European public asset management business to enhance its presence in the U.S. market and support its 2030 growth vision.

Nomura to Implement RSUs and PSUs for Deferred Compensation
Apr 25, 2025

Nomura Holdings, Inc. has announced its plan to grant Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) and Performance Share Units (PSUs) as deferred compensation to its directors, executive officers, and employees. This initiative, set to be implemented in late May 2025, involves the potential distribution of approximately 61 million shares, valued at around 49 billion yen, primarily through the disposal of treasury shares. This move is expected to align employee incentives with company performance and enhance stakeholder value.

Nomura Holdings Initiates Share Buyback Program
Apr 25, 2025

Nomura Holdings has announced a share buyback program approved by its Board of Directors, set to run from May 15, 2025, to December 30, 2025, with an upper limit of 100 million shares or 3.2% of outstanding shares, and a total repurchase price of 60 billion yen. This initiative aims to enhance capital efficiency and support a flexible capital management policy, as well as to provide shares for stock-based compensation, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

Nomura Expands Global Reach with Acquisition of Macquarie’s Asset Management Business
Apr 21, 2025

Nomura Holdings has announced its acquisition of Macquarie’s U.S. and European public asset management business for $1.8 billion, significantly boosting its assets under management to approximately $770 billion. This strategic move is expected to enhance Nomura’s global investment management capabilities, particularly outside Japan, and strengthen its presence in the U.S. market, aligning with its growth and diversification ambitions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.