Nomura Holdings Inc (JP:8604)
:8604
Top Page
Nomura Holdings
(8604)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,396.00
▲(6.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but risk-tinged financial performance (strong profits and revenue improvement, but high leverage and negative operating/free cash flow). Valuation is supportive (low P/E and ~4% yield), while technical signals are mixed-to-weak (negative MACD and below key moving averages). The earnings call was constructive (ROE around 10%, strong business momentum, buyback) but tempered by near-term integration costs and higher expenses.
Positive Factors
Wealth Management recurring revenue & net inflows
Sustained record recurring revenue and large net inflows expand a stable fee base and client AUM, reducing revenue cyclicality. Over months this strengthens predictable fee income, improves margin resilience via higher cost coverage, and supports cross‑sell and long‑term client relationships.
Negative Factors
High leverage and weak cash conversion
A leveraged balance sheet combined with negative operating and free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and liquidity risk. Over months this can limit investment, pressure capital returns, and make the firm more reliant on capital markets or asset sales during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Wealth Management recurring revenue & net inflows
Sustained record recurring revenue and large net inflows expand a stable fee base and client AUM, reducing revenue cyclicality. Over months this strengthens predictable fee income, improves margin resilience via higher cost coverage, and supports cross‑sell and long‑term client relationships.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (8604) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥3.76T
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)9.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth-2.45%
EPS Growth35.60%
CountryJP
Employees26,850
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)31.19
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume10,693,140
30 Day Avg. Volume9,993,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio-3.09
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,404.23Price Target Upside7.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)127.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.13T
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura primarily makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading-related revenues across its major business lines.
1) Wealth Management: Revenue is generated from commissions and fees on securities sales and distribution (e.g., investment t...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operating performance driven by record and near-record metrics across Wealth Management, Investment Management AUM, and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking). Group revenue growth, multiple all-time highs (AUM, recurring revenue assets, business revenue) and a robust capital base (Tier 1 and CET1) support a constructive view. Offsetting this optimism were notable near-term headwinds: one-time acquisition and integration costs (Macquarie), higher expenses including deferred compensation accounting impacts, a small QoQ decline in consolidated profit, and volatile losses in digital asset operations (Laser). Management framed several negatives as temporary or controllable (tightened crypto risk controls, planned integration investments) and announced a sizable share buyback to boost returns. Overall, the positives — including durable net inflows, record-level revenues in key businesses, and strong wholesale momentum — outweigh the temporary and manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Return on Equity Meets Target
ROE for Q3 was 10.3%, reaching the company's 2030 quantitative target range (8%–10% or more) for the seventh consecutive quarter; ROE for the 9 months was 10.8%.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Profit Slightly Down QoQ
Income before income taxes fell 1% QoQ to JPY 135.2 billion and net income fell 1% QoQ to JPY 91.6 billion; EPS for the quarter was JPY 30.19 — indicating marginal downward pressure on quarterly profitability despite revenue growth.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return on Equity Meets Target
ROE for Q3 was 10.3%, reaching the company's 2030 quantitative target range (8%–10% or more) for the seventh consecutive quarter; ROE for the 9 months was 10.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nomura reiterated constructive near‑term guidance alongside capital actions: it launched a share buyback (Feb 17–Sep 30) capped at 100 million shares / JPY 60.0 billion to enhance returns, while reporting Q3 ROE 10.3% (9‑month ROE 10.8%), group net revenue JPY 551.8 billion (+7% QoQ), income before taxes JPY 135.2 billion (-1% QoQ) and net income JPY 91.6 billion (EPS JPY 30.19); 9‑month income before taxes was JPY 432.1 billion (+15% YoY) and net income JPY 288.2 billion (+7%). Division and KPI guidance included Wealth Management Q3 net revenue JPY 132.5 billion (+14% QoQ) and pretax JPY 58.5 billion (+29% QoQ) with recurring revenue at an all‑time JPY 52.7 billion and net inflows of recurring assets JPY 503.9 billion (recurring assets JPY 28.1 trillion); Wholesale net revenue JPY 313.9 billion (+12% QoQ) with Global Markets JPY 256.8 billion (+9%), fixed income JPY 136.9 billion (+12%) and equities JPY 119.9 billion (+5%), and Investment Banking net revenue JPY 57.1 billion (+31%). Investment Management flagged flat Q3 net revenue JPY 60.9 billion but pretax down 42% to JPY 17.9 billion due to one‑offs from the Dec 1 Macquarie deal (acquired AUM ≈ JPY 25 trillion; acquired business revenue JPY 7 billion, operating expenses JPY 5 billion, one‑off acquisition costs ≈ JPY 11 billion; expected integration/transfer costs ≈ $100 million over ~2 years, front‑loaded into the year from Q4). Other balance‑sheet and cost guidance: group expenses JPY 416.5 billion (+10% QoQ) driven by FX ~JPY 9 billion and one‑offs ~JPY 13 billion; Tier 1 capital JPY 3.6 trillion (+JPY 60 billion), RWA JPY 24 trillion (+JPY 700 billion) and CET1 ratio 12.8%; deferred‑comp accounting added ~JPY 8 billion in Q3 (similar in Q4) and is expected to be ~JPY 15–16 billion on a fuller‑year basis before normalizing. Operational tone for January: Wealth Management net revenue roughly in line with Q3, Global Markets broadly in line, Investment Banking a slightly slower start but a solid pipeline; Laser Digital will be grown over the medium‑long term with tighter position and risk controls to limit short‑term volatility.Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.54T | 4.74T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T | 1.41T |
| Gross Profit | 1.78T | 1.65T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T | 1.20T |
| EBITDA | 529.32B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B | 294.52B |
| Net Income | 376.36B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B | 153.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.10T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T | 42.52T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.55T | 5.07T | 4.24T | 4.52T | 4.06T | 4.16T |
| Total Debt | 30.97T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 10.90T | 9.74T |
| Total Liabilities | 54.51T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T | 39.76T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.48T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T | 2.69T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -868.58B | -13.14B | -1.15T | -974.16B | 545.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -678.61B | 132.64B | -974.75B | -862.83B | 665.77B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -848.65B | -887.94B | 38.95B | -593.18B | -139.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.29T | 1.11T | -269.93B |
Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
1305.00
Price Trends
1296.43
Positive
1278.80
Positive
1136.81
Positive
Market Momentum
8.02
Negative
56.06
Neutral
86.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1305 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1237.39, above the 50-day MA of 1296.43, and above the 200-day MA of 1136.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | ¥199.56B | 6.74 | ― | 4.01% | -2.39% | -4.54% | |
76 Outperform | ¥217.85B | 12.40 | 26.65% | 4.00% | 10.37% | 18.68% | |
76 Outperform | ¥2.09T | 10.19 | 9.37% | 4.13% | -0.87% | 6.88% | |
74 Outperform | ¥245.23B | 12.14 | 14.00% | 5.13% | 3.27% | -1.81% | |
69 Neutral | ¥3.76T | 10.42 | 10.23% | 3.93% | -2.45% | 35.60% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
43 Neutral | ¥171.33B | 13.27 | 7.26% | 4.16% | 14.69% | -114.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8604
Nomura Holdings
1,300.50
561.79
76.05%
JP:8601
Daiwa
1,532.00
672.44
78.23%
JP:8698
Monex Group
683.00
50.31
7.95%
JP:8628
Matsui Securities Co
957.00
267.87
38.87%
JP:2127
Nihon M&A Center
655.70
117.55
21.84%
JP:8609
Okasan Securities Group Inc.
891.00
316.85
55.19%
Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Begins Executing Share Buyback, Repurchasing 7.9 Million Shares
Mar 2, 2026
Nomura Holdings has reported initial progress under its latest share buyback program, signaling continued efforts to return capital to shareholders and manage its equity base. The program, authorized by the board in late January, allows repurchase...
Nomura Confirms Higher Nine-Month Profit as Audit Review Backs Results
Feb 10, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 under U.S. GAAP, confirming that an interim review by certified public accountants has been completed with no changes to the figures disclosed on January 30....
Nomura Details Third-Quarter Fiscal 2025/26 Metrics in Comprehensive Supplement
Feb 4, 2026
Nomura’s third-quarter fiscal 2025/26 financial supplement outlines consolidated results, segment performance across wealth, investment, wholesale, and banking units, and supporting data such as balance sheet metrics, value-at-risk calculati...
Nomura to Use Treasury Shares for Multi‑Year RSU Awards to Executives and Staff
Jan 16, 2026
Nomura Holdings has approved the disposition of up to roughly 6.7 million shares of its treasury stock to fund a series of Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) awards for directors, executive officers and employees of its subsidiaries as deferred compensat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.