Nomura Holdings (8604) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.49T
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: -2.45%
• EPS Growth: 35.60%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 26,850
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 31.19
• Shares Outstanding: 3,088,562,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,693,140
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,993,590
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,479.36
• Price Target Upside: 21.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 131.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.06T

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,359.00 ▲(11.53% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/01/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/01/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance improvements, tempered by high leverage and weak cash-flow conversion. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is favorable given the moderate P/E and solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified global business model

Nomura's mix of wealth management, asset management, markets and investment-banking creates multiple fee and trading revenue sources. This diversification reduces dependence on any single cycle, supports recurring AUM fees and broadens client access, improving resilience over months.

Recent revenue and margin improvement

Reported top-line growth alongside materially higher EBIT and improved gross margins suggests better operating leverage and cost control. If sustained, these margin gains can raise earnings quality and underpin improved cash generation and profitability over the next several quarters.

Gradually strengthening equity base

A rising equity base increases the firm's capital cushion and regulatory flexibility, supporting underwriting, market-making and client-facing activities. Stronger equity reduces tail risk and improves the firm's ability to absorb shocks over a multi-quarter horizon.

Negative Factors

High leverage (debt-to-equity)

Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to market and funding shocks and raises capital and funding costs. Over the medium term this can constrain capital allocation, force deleveraging or asset sales, and limit strategic flexibility—raising financial risk across quarters.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows indicate weak cash conversion of reported profits. This forces reliance on external financing, restricts reinvestment and dividend sustainability, and elevates liquidity risk—undermining financial durability in the medium term.

Earnings and revenue volatility

Reported volatility in revenue and earnings reflects sensitivity to capital-markets cycles and deal-dependent flows. Such variability complicates planning, weakens predictability of fee income and trading profits, and increases the chance of profit reversals over coming quarters.

Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Retail segment offers various financial products and investment services. As of March 31, 2022, this segment operated a network of 119 branches. The Investment Management segment engages in the management of funds, investment trusts, and other investment vehicles; and provision of investment advisory, custodial, and administrative services. The Wholesale segment is involved in the research, sale, trading, agency execution, and market-making of fixed income and equity-related products. It also engages in underwriting various securities and other financial instruments, such as various classes of shares, convertible and exchangeable securities, investment grade and high yield debts, sovereign and emerging market debts, structured securities, and other securities; arranging private placements, as well as other capital raising activities; and the provision of financial advisory services on business transactions comprising mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs, capital structuring, corporate defense activities, leveraged buyouts, and risk solutions. In addition, this segment offers various financial instruments. The company was formerly known as The Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nomura Holdings, Inc. in October 2001. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura primarily makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading-related revenues across its major business lines. 1) Wealth Management: Revenue is generated from commissions and fees on securities sales and distribution (e.g., investment trusts, structured products, equities and bonds), ongoing advisory and account-related fees, and interest-related income tied to client financing (e.g., margin lending or other client credit where applicable). Earnings are influenced by client asset levels, net inflows/outflows, market performance, and client activity. 2) Investment Management (Asset Management): Nomura earns management fees based largely on assets under management (AUM) across mutual funds and other investment strategies, and may also earn performance fees where applicable (if offered in specific products/mandates). Revenue depends on AUM levels (market moves and net flows), fee rates by product mix, and investment performance. 3) Wholesale (Institutional): - Markets and trading: Nomura earns trading income (and related client execution revenues) from market-making and risk intermediation in fixed income, equities, and related derivatives, as well as prime services and financing-related spreads where applicable. Results depend on client volumes, bid-ask spreads, market volatility/liquidity, and the firm’s risk management. - Investment Banking: Nomura earns advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions and other strategic advisory, and underwriting/placement fees from equity and debt capital markets activities. These revenues are driven by deal flow, market conditions, and the firm’s ability to win mandates. 4) Other/Principal activities: The group may generate income from investments, stakes in affiliates, and other financial activities at the holding/company level; the magnitude and composition can vary by period and market environment. Key factors affecting earnings include capital markets conditions (equity and interest-rate environments, credit spreads, volatility), client activity levels, AUM trends, and regulatory/capital requirements. Significant partnerships or specific counterparty arrangements are not provided here; null.

Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent revenue and profit improvement with better gross margin, but earnings volatility, high leverage (elevated debt-to-equity), and negative operating/free cash flow reduce the quality and stability of performance.

Income Statement

Nomura Holdings experienced a significant increase in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year, alongside a substantial rise in EBIT and net income, reflecting a strong operational performance. The gross profit margin improved markedly, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin and revenue growth rates exhibit volatility over the years, indicating some instability in earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a leveraged position, which poses financial risk. However, stockholders' equity has been gradually increasing, reflecting strengthening of the financial base. The equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting limited buffer to absorb potential losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows impacting liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating profits into cash. Despite these issues, there has been a positive trend in cash and cash equivalents, providing some liquidity cushion.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.54T	4.74T	3.97T	2.30T	1.37T	1.41T
Gross Profit	1.78T	1.65T	1.38T	1.14T	1.14T	1.20T
EBITDA	529.32B	533.62B	335.19B	210.90B	286.15B	294.52B
Net Income	376.36B	340.74B	165.86B	92.79B	143.00B	153.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.10T	56.80T	55.15T	47.77T	43.41T	42.52T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.55T	5.07T	4.24T	4.52T	4.06T	4.16T
Total Debt	30.97T	31.35T	30.96T	26.15T	10.90T	9.74T
Total Liabilities	54.51T	53.22T	51.70T	44.55T	40.44T	39.76T
Stockholders Equity	3.48T	3.47T	3.35T	3.15T	2.91T	2.69T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-868.58B	-13.14B	-1.15T	-974.16B	545.89B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-678.61B	132.64B	-974.75B	-862.83B	665.77B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-848.65B	-887.94B	38.95B	-593.18B	-139.03B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.68T	1.01T	1.29T	1.11T	-269.93B

Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1218.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1218.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1282.15, below the 50-day MA of 1365.06, and above the 200-day MA of 1137.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -50.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:8604.

Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8609	80 Outperform	¥183.43B	6.74	―	4.01%	-2.39%	-4.54%
2127	76 Outperform	¥207.63B	12.40	26.65%	4.00%	10.37%	18.68%
8601	76 Outperform	¥1.98T	10.19	9.37%	4.13%	-0.87%	6.88%
8604	73 Outperform	¥3.49T	10.42	10.23%	3.93%	-2.45%	35.60%
8628	69 Neutral	¥248.06B	12.14	14.00%	5.13%	3.27%	-1.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8698	43 Neutral	¥175.73B	13.27	7.26%	4.16%	14.69%	-114.36%

Nomura Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Begins Executing Share Buyback, Repurchasing 7.9 Million Shares

Nomura Holdings has reported initial progress under its latest share buyback program, signaling continued efforts to return capital to shareholders and manage its equity base. The program, authorized by the board in late January, allows repurchases of up to 100 million common shares, equivalent to 3.2% of its issued stock, for a total consideration of up to 60 billion yen.

Between February 17 and February 28, Nomura repurchased 7,913,300 common shares on the stock exchange via a trust bank, at an aggregate cost of about 11.3 billion yen. This early execution, representing a fraction of the total capacity and running through late September, underlines the firm’s flexibility in capital allocation and may support earnings per share and share price stability, which is closely watched by investors in Japan’s financial sector.

The ongoing buyback structure, including purchases executed through a trust bank and spaced around earnings announcements, gives Nomura room to calibrate the pace of repurchases to market conditions. For shareholders and market participants, the disclosed progress provides transparency on how aggressively the firm is deploying its authorized buyback firepower within the current fiscal period.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Buy with a Yen1620.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Confirms Higher Nine-Month Profit as Audit Review Backs Results

Nomura Holdings reported consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 under U.S. GAAP, confirming that an interim review by certified public accountants has been completed with no changes to the figures disclosed on January 30. Net revenue rose 10.5% year-on-year to ¥1.59 trillion, income before income taxes increased 15.5% to ¥432.1 billion and net income attributable to shareholders grew 7.2% to ¥288.2 billion, supporting an annualized return on equity of 10.8% even as total revenue dipped and comprehensive income declined, indicating resilient profitability and balance sheet expansion.

Total assets increased from ¥56.8 trillion at March 31, 2025 to ¥61.9 trillion at December 31, 2025, while total equity rose to ¥3.81 trillion and shareholders’ equity per share improved to ¥1,244.72 despite a slight decrease in the equity-to-assets ratio. The completion of the audit review without revisions underscores the reliability of Nomura’s reported earnings trajectory and capital position, which will be closely watched by investors assessing the firm’s performance momentum and risk profile in volatile global markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1486.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Details Third-Quarter Fiscal 2025/26 Metrics in Comprehensive Supplement

Nomura’s third-quarter fiscal 2025/26 financial supplement outlines consolidated results, segment performance across wealth, investment, wholesale, and banking units, and supporting data such as balance sheet metrics, value-at-risk calculations, revenue drivers, employee figures, and expense trends, signaling a detailed disclosure aimed at highlighting operational resilience and the firm’s robust capital position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1415.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura to Use Treasury Shares for Multi‑Year RSU Awards to Executives and Staff

Nomura Holdings has approved the disposition of up to roughly 6.7 million shares of its treasury stock to fund a series of Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) awards for directors, executive officers and employees of its subsidiaries as deferred compensation. The grants, covering multiple RSU tranches scheduled for settlement between 2027 and 2030, will be executed via in-kind contributions of monetary compensation claims at a fixed price of 1,492 yen per share, reinforcing Nomura’s long-term incentive structure and aligning management and employee interests more closely with shareholder value over a multi‑year horizon.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Trust and Banking to Acquire 6.48% Voting Stake in Alpen via Impact Neutralization Trust

The Nomura Trust and Banking Co., Ltd., part of the Nomura Group, plans to acquire 25,000 voting rights, equivalent to a planned 6.48% stake, in Alpen Co., Ltd. between December 26, 2025 and January 7, 2026 under a trust agreement related to an Impact Neutralization Trust. The size and timing of the proposed stake suggest a targeted, structured investment that could modestly increase Nomura’s exposure to Alpen while allowing flexibility for market conditions, underscoring Nomura’s continued use of trust-based structures in its asset and corporate governance-related activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.