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Nomura Holdings
(8604)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,681.00
▲(5.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score reflects a mix of improving profitability and a very supportive valuation (very low P/E plus ~3.25% yield) alongside a clear uptrend in the share price. These positives are tempered most by financial-statement risk—especially very high leverage and repeatedly negative/volatile operating and free cash flow—which reduces balance-sheet flexibility for a capital markets business.
Positive Factors
Improved ROE and profitability
ROE at 15.4% and management’s raised 2030 ROE target (10–12%+) signal durable improvement in return generation and capital efficiency. Sustained higher ROE supports internal capital formation, enhances shareholder return potential, and validates strategic execution across divisions.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Debt-to-equity rising to roughly 8.9x–9.2x materially increases balance‑sheet risk for a capital markets firm. Elevated leverage limits strategic flexibility, raises refinancing and funding vulnerability in downturns, and amplifies earnings volatility should market conditions worsen.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved ROE and profitability
ROE at 15.4% and management’s raised 2030 ROE target (10–12%+) signal durable improvement in return generation and capital efficiency. Sustained higher ROE supports internal capital formation, enhances shareholder return potential, and validates strategic execution across divisions.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (8604) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥4.37T
Dividend Yield3.36%
Average Volume (3M)9.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.3
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth6.38%
EPS Growth8.32%
CountryJP
Employees28,677
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4924.35
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume10,693,140
30 Day Avg. Volume9,993,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.45
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio-2.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,690.00Price Target Upside5.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)141.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.28T
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc., a financial powerhouse based in Tokyo, Japan, delivers a comprehensive array of financial solutions to a global clientele, including individuals, corporations, financial institutions, and government entities. The company's o...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura primarily earns revenue through fees and trading-related income generated across its major business segments:
1) Wealth Management (retail/investor clients)
- Brokerage commissions and transaction fees: Nomura earns fees when clients trade...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported multiple record highs across divisions (ROE, recurring revenue, AUM, wholesale and investment management profits) and clear progress on recurring revenue and international expansion, but also disclosed pockets of weakness: sizable ETF/AUM outflows, regional (EMEA) losses, seasonal slowing in wholesale and some one-time compensation and relocation cost uncertainty. On balance, the positive operational momentum and improved earnings stability outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong ROE and Record Quarterly Profitability
ROE reached 15.4% in Q1 (highest since Apr–Jun 2020). Management raised the 2030 numerical ROE target range to 10%–12%+ and set a 2030 income before income taxes target of at least JPY 750 billion.
Negative Updates
Total Sales Decline and Stock Sales Drop
Total sales fell versus the previous quarter to JPY 8.5 trillion and stock sales declined 36% q/q due to the absence of major tender offers, indicating quarter-to-quarter volatility in flow revenue.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong ROE and Record Quarterly Profitability
ROE reached 15.4% in Q1 (highest since Apr–Jun 2020). Management raised the 2030 numerical ROE target range to 10%–12%+ and set a 2030 income before income taxes target of at least JPY 750 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated forward guidance to press ahead toward its 2030 targets (ROE raised to a 10–12%+ target range and income before income taxes of at least JPY 750 billion) while monetizing market opportunities with disciplined risk-taking and cost control amid expected higher volatility in H2 (US midterms, policy moves); they pointed to a strong Q1 base — group ROE 15.4%, Wealth Management net revenue JPY 145.4bn (+9% q/q) and income before taxes JPY 71.1bn (+16%), recurring revenue JPY 59.2bn (all‑time high) with net inflows JPY 539.6bn (17th consecutive quarter) and recurring assets JPY 31.7tn, WM pretax margin 49% and recurring revenue cost coverage 76%; Investment Management net revenue JPY 98.3bn (+14%) and income before taxes JPY 45.0bn (+148%) with AUM JPY 156.4tn (net outflows JPY 1.33tn but ~JPY 500bn inflows ex‑ETFs); Wholesale net revenue JPY 369.1bn (+20%) and income before taxes JPY 93.3bn (+116%) (Global Markets JPY 318.7bn, Fixed Income JPY 139.2bn, Equities JPY 179.4bn) and a revenue/modified‑RWA ratio of 9.3%; Banking net revenue JPY 15.2bn (+5%) and income before taxes JPY 3.6bn (+19%); group expenses JPY 475.2bn (+1% q/q) and CET1 ratio 12.9% (up 0.1pp).Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.76T | 4.74T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T |
| Gross Profit | 1.81T | 1.65T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T |
| EBITDA | 608.09B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B |
| Net Income | 362.13B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.65T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.01T | 5.07T | 4.24T | 4.52T | 4.06T |
| Total Debt | 36.74T | 31.35T | 30.77T | 28.10T | 10.90T |
| Total Liabilities | 58.79T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.71T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.20T | -868.58B | -13.14B | -1.15T | -974.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -842.96B | -678.61B | 132.64B | -974.75B | -862.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.50T | -848.65B | -887.94B | 38.95B | -593.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10T | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.29T | 1.11T |
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | ¥211.00B | 15.56 | 26.34% | 4.37% | 10.74% | 12.02% | |
70 Outperform | ¥2.45T | 14.34 | 10.35% | 3.49% | 7.41% | 15.07% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | ¥246.41B | 8.07 | ― | 4.01% | 38.46% | 176.98% | |
66 Neutral | ¥269.65B | 14.83 | 19.66% | 5.13% | 43.71% | 73.74% | |
64 Neutral | ¥4.37T | 0.31 | 404.11% | 3.19% | 6.38% | 8.32% | |
56 Neutral | ¥176.59B | 16.24 | 8.98% | 4.18% | 17.45% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8604
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Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Earnings Jump on Strong First-Quarter Performance
Jul 29, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported a strong improvement in results for the three months ended June 30, 2026, with total revenue rising 18.6% year on year to ¥1.37 trillion and net revenue up 31.2%. Income before income taxes increased 32.0%, while net ...
Nomura Posts Record First-Quarter Results Across Core Divisions
Jul 29, 2026
Nomura Holdings delivered a strong start to its fiscal year ending March 2027, reporting first-quarter net revenue of 686.7 billion yen and net income of 145.6 billion yen, up sharply both quarter on quarter and year on year. Return on equity reac...
Nomura to Use Treasury Shares for Expanded Equity-Based Compensation Plans
May 14, 2026
Nomura Holdings plans to dispose of a substantial number of treasury shares to fund restricted stock units and performance share units granted as deferred compensation to directors, executive officers and employees of the company and its subsidiar...
Nomura Outlines Fiscal 2026 Results and Segment Performance
Apr 30, 2026
Nomura Holdings has released its consolidated results of operations for the fourth quarter and full year ended March 2026, outlining performance under U.S. GAAP across its main business segments. The materials highlight trends in stable revenue, s...
Nomura Finalizes Treasury Share Disposition for Stock-Based Awards
Apr 30, 2026
Nomura Holdings has finalized the details of its latest disposition of treasury shares under its long-running Restricted Stock Unit program, confirming the number of shares and allottees for multiple RSU tranches decided between 2019 and 2025. The...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.