Nomura Holdings (8604) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.09T
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: -2.45%
• EPS Growth: 35.60%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 26,850
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 31.19
• Shares Outstanding: 3,163,562,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,693,140
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,993,590
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,457.50
• Price Target Upside: 30.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 124.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.00T

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,428.00 ▲(27.56% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial statement performance but held back by leverage and negative operating/free cash flow. Valuation is supportive (P/E ~12 and ~3.9% yield), while technical indicators suggest near-term weakness despite a positive MACD and longer-term trend support. Earnings call sentiment was constructive (ROE strength and divisional momentum) with some notable cost and one-off headwinds.

Positive Factors

Sustained ROE

A six-quarter streak above the 8-10% ROE target indicates disciplined capital allocation and consistent profitability. Sustained ROE supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and signals management execution across business lines, improving resilience over business cycles.

Stable AUM and Net Inflows

Consecutive net inflows and record AUM reflect a durable client franchise and recurring fee base. Growing, sticky assets reduce reliance on volatile trading revenue, support fee margins, and create cross-sell opportunities that strengthen long-term revenue predictability.

Strength in Global Markets and IB

Record equities revenue and momentum in investment banking point to competitive market positioning and client flow capture. Diversified wholesale strengths reduce single-product concentration and enable sustained revenue generation across market cycles.

Negative Factors

High Leverage / Low Equity Ratio

A leveraged balance sheet with a low equity ratio limits loss-absorbing capacity and increases regulatory and funding vulnerability. This structural risk can constrain growth initiatives, raise funding costs and reduce strategic flexibility during market stress.

Weak Cash Conversion

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows erode liquidity and reduce internal financing for dividends, buybacks or investment. Reliance on external funding or asset sales to cover cash shortfalls increases financing risk and limits long-term strategic optionality.

Revenue and Margin Volatility

Volatile revenue growth and margins reflect structural exposure to capital markets cycles and transaction-driven income. This unpredictability complicates long-term planning, makes cash generation uneven and can pressure capital allocation during prolonged weak market conditions.

Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (TSE: 8604) is a leading financial services group headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, offering a wide range of services across various sectors including retail brokerage, asset management, and investment banking. The company operates through its subsidiaries, providing services such as securities trading, wealth management, and advisory services, catering to individual, institutional, and corporate clients globally. Nomura is recognized for its strong presence in the Asian markets, as well as its strategic expansion into international markets, enabling comprehensive financial solutions that leverage its deep market expertise.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily including brokerage commissions from its retail and institutional clients, asset management fees, and investment banking revenues from advisory services, underwriting, and capital market transactions. The firm's retail brokerage division earns money through trading commissions and fees on securities transactions. In asset management, Nomura generates income from management fees based on the assets under management (AUM) and performance fees for achieving specific investment benchmarks. The investment banking segment contributes through advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, underwriting fees from debt and equity issuance, and other related services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its service offerings and expand its client base, further bolstering its earnings potential.

Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (revenue, EBIT, and net income improvement) is tempered by balance-sheet leverage risk (high debt-to-equity, low equity ratio) and weak cash conversion (negative operating and free cash flow).

Income Statement

Nomura Holdings experienced a significant increase in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year, alongside a substantial rise in EBIT and net income, reflecting a strong operational performance. The gross profit margin improved markedly, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin and revenue growth rates exhibit volatility over the years, indicating some instability in earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a leveraged position, which poses financial risk. However, stockholders' equity has been gradually increasing, reflecting strengthening of the financial base. The equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting limited buffer to absorb potential losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows impacting liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating profits into cash. Despite these issues, there has been a positive trend in cash and cash equivalents, providing some liquidity cushion.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.54T	4.74T	3.97T	2.30T	1.37T	1.41T
Gross Profit	1.78T	1.65T	1.38T	1.14T	1.14T	1.20T
EBITDA	529.32B	533.62B	335.19B	210.90B	286.15B	294.52B
Net Income	376.36B	340.74B	165.86B	92.79B	143.00B	153.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.10T	56.80T	55.15T	47.77T	43.41T	42.52T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.55T	5.07T	4.24T	4.52T	4.06T	4.16T
Total Debt	30.97T	31.17T	30.96T	26.15T	10.90T	9.94T
Total Liabilities	54.51T	53.22T	51.70T	44.55T	40.44T	39.76T
Stockholders Equity	3.48T	3.47T	3.35T	3.15T	2.91T	2.69T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-868.58B	-13.14B	-1.15T	-974.16B	545.89B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-678.61B	132.64B	-974.75B	-862.83B	665.77B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-848.65B	-887.94B	38.95B	-593.18B	-139.03B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.68T	1.01T	1.29T	1.11T	-269.93B

Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1119.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1119.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1406.17, below the 50-day MA of 1388.10, and above the 200-day MA of 1107.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.

Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8609	80 Outperform	¥211.05B	13.75	―	4.01%	-2.39%	-4.54%
2127	76 Outperform	¥230.36B	15.59	26.65%	4.00%	10.37%	18.68%
8601	76 Outperform	¥2.15T	14.28	9.37%	4.13%	-0.87%	6.88%
8604	69 Neutral	¥4.09T	11.72	10.65%	3.93%	-2.45%	35.60%
8628	69 Neutral	¥237.78B	18.19	14.00%	5.13%	3.27%	-1.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8698	43 Neutral	¥178.25B	20.22	-3.97%	4.16%	14.69%	-114.36%

Nomura Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Confirms Higher Nine-Month Profit as Audit Review Backs Results

Nomura Holdings reported consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 under U.S. GAAP, confirming that an interim review by certified public accountants has been completed with no changes to the figures disclosed on January 30. Net revenue rose 10.5% year-on-year to ¥1.59 trillion, income before income taxes increased 15.5% to ¥432.1 billion and net income attributable to shareholders grew 7.2% to ¥288.2 billion, supporting an annualized return on equity of 10.8% even as total revenue dipped and comprehensive income declined, indicating resilient profitability and balance sheet expansion.

Total assets increased from ¥56.8 trillion at March 31, 2025 to ¥61.9 trillion at December 31, 2025, while total equity rose to ¥3.81 trillion and shareholders’ equity per share improved to ¥1,244.72 despite a slight decrease in the equity-to-assets ratio. The completion of the audit review without revisions underscores the reliability of Nomura’s reported earnings trajectory and capital position, which will be closely watched by investors assessing the firm’s performance momentum and risk profile in volatile global markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1486.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Details Third-Quarter Fiscal 2025/26 Metrics in Comprehensive Supplement

Nomura’s third-quarter fiscal 2025/26 financial supplement outlines consolidated results, segment performance across wealth, investment, wholesale, and banking units, and supporting data such as balance sheet metrics, value-at-risk calculations, revenue drivers, employee figures, and expense trends, signaling a detailed disclosure aimed at highlighting operational resilience and the firm’s robust capital position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1415.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura to Use Treasury Shares for Multi‑Year RSU Awards to Executives and Staff

Nomura Holdings has approved the disposition of up to roughly 6.7 million shares of its treasury stock to fund a series of Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) awards for directors, executive officers and employees of its subsidiaries as deferred compensation. The grants, covering multiple RSU tranches scheduled for settlement between 2027 and 2030, will be executed via in-kind contributions of monetary compensation claims at a fixed price of 1,492 yen per share, reinforcing Nomura’s long-term incentive structure and aligning management and employee interests more closely with shareholder value over a multi‑year horizon.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Trust and Banking to Acquire 6.48% Voting Stake in Alpen via Impact Neutralization Trust

The Nomura Trust and Banking Co., Ltd., part of the Nomura Group, plans to acquire 25,000 voting rights, equivalent to a planned 6.48% stake, in Alpen Co., Ltd. between December 26, 2025 and January 7, 2026 under a trust agreement related to an Impact Neutralization Trust. The size and timing of the proposed stake suggest a targeted, structured investment that could modestly increase Nomura’s exposure to Alpen while allowing flexibility for market conditions, underscoring Nomura’s continued use of trust-based structures in its asset and corporate governance-related activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Completes Acquisition of Macquarie’s Asset Management Business

Nomura has completed the acquisition of Macquarie’s U.S. and European public asset management business for $1.8 billion, adding approximately $166 billion in client assets to its portfolio. This acquisition marks a significant step towards Nomura’s 2030 Management Vision by enhancing its asset management capabilities and diversifying its platform. The newly formed Nomura Asset Management International will be led by Shawn Lytle and Robert Stark, aiming to build a global platform with strong investment capabilities. Additionally, Nomura and Macquarie have established a strategic partnership for product distribution and co-development of investment strategies, further strengthening their collaboration and expanding their reach in the U.S. and Japan.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Buy with a Yen1324.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.