Nomura Holdings Inc (JP:8604)
:8604
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Nomura Holdings
(8604)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,371.00
▲(2.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/27/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and volatile/negative operating and free cash flow, despite improving profitability. Offsetting factors include an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield), a generally positive FY2026 earnings narrative with reiterated targets, and moderately supportive technical positioning above major longer-term averages.
Positive Factors
Diversified Revenue Growth
Sustained, company-wide revenue and profit expansion across FY2026 reflects durable demand across Wealth, Investment Management and Wholesale. A larger, multi-segment revenue base reduces single-market sensitivity and supports reinvestment and recurring capital returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
Debt levels near nine times equity materially constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market or funding stress. High leverage raises refinancing and regulatory risks, limits capacity for opportunistic balance-sheet deployment, and elevates the firm's long-term risk profile despite improved earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified Revenue Growth
Sustained, company-wide revenue and profit expansion across FY2026 reflects durable demand across Wealth, Investment Management and Wholesale. A larger, multi-segment revenue base reduces single-market sensitivity and supports reinvestment and recurring capital returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (8604) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥3.51T
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)9.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth0.46%
EPS Growth6.87%
CountryJP
Employees26,850
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)127.16
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume10,693,140
30 Day Avg. Volume9,993,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.45
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio-5.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,405.00Price Target Upside5.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)127.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.14T
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura primarily makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading-related revenues across its major business lines.
1) Wealth Management: Revenue is generated from commissions and fees on securities sales and distribution (e.g., investment t...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive full‑year performance with several strategic achievements: record full‑year net income, ROE above 10%, all‑time high AUM and segment income, strong Wealth Management recurring revenue and robust capital returns. However, the fourth quarter showed notable softness driven by market volatility, defensive risk controls, one‑time impairments and higher operating expenses that pushed the Q4 cost-income ratio up to ~86% and caused quarter-on-quarter profit declines. Management described these Q4 headwinds as largely one‑off or timing-related and emphasized ongoing revenue momentum (particularly in April), continued investment in growth initiatives (asset management, wealth and banking), and disciplined capital and risk controls.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Profit and Revenue Growth
Group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% to JPY 362.1 billion — a record high for the second consecutive year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Profit Decline
Q4 group income before income taxes fell 20% QoQ to JPY 107.7 billion and net income declined 19% QoQ to JPY 73.9 billion (EPS JPY 24.34; Q4 ROE 8%). Management attributed the drop to reduced affiliate profit recognition, an impairment in Investment Management, and defensive risk controls in late-March markets.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Profit and Revenue Growth
Group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% to JPY 362.1 billion — a record high for the second consecutive year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nomura said it will return capital while pursuing growth after a strong FY‑2026: full‑year group net revenue JPY2,167.7bn (+15% y/y), income before taxes JPY539.8bn (+14%), net income JPY362.1bn (+6%) and ROE 10.1%, with four‑segment income before taxes at JPY506.9bn; the board expects an ordinary dividend of JPY24 per share (annual JPY51, payout ratio 41%) and reiterated its 8–10%+ ROE and >JPY500bn income‑before‑taxes targets. Q4 was mixed: group net revenue JPY577.2bn (+5% qoq) but income before taxes JPY107.7bn (‑20%), net income JPY73.9bn (‑19%), EPS JPY24.34 and ROE 8%; Wealth Management Q4 net revenue JPY133.1bn, income before taxes JPY61.2bn, recurring revenue JPY56.8bn (record) and recurring inflows JPY422.8bn (16th straight quarter of inflows), total sales rose 75% qoq to ~JPY11.7tn (incl. JPY4.0tn of tender offers). Investment Management net revenue JPY86.2bn (+42% qoq) with AUM at a record JPY136.9tn (up >50% y/y), alt AUM JPY3.6tn; Wholesale net revenue JPY308.1bn (‑2% qoq) and income before taxes JPY43.2bn (‑31%) — Global Markets JPY252.5bn (FI JPY125.3bn, Equities JPY127.2bn) and IB JPY55.6bn — while Banking net revenue JPY14.5bn. Group expenses were JPY469.5bn (+13% qoq) after one‑offs but management says the cost base is appropriate; capital remains solid with CET1 12.9% (‑0.1pt) and private‑credit exposure ~USD2.4bn (lender financing ~USD800m, direct lending ~USD1.2bn, IM ~USD400m), and management expects CET1 not to decline materially next quarter as they balance revenue growth, cost control and selective balance‑sheet deployment.Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.54T | 4.76T | 4.74T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T |
| Gross Profit | 1.78T | 1.81T | 1.65T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T |
| EBITDA | 529.32B | 608.09B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B |
| Net Income | 376.36B | 362.13B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.10T | 62.65T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.55T | 5.01T | 5.07T | 4.24T | 4.52T | 4.06T |
| Total Debt | 30.97T | 32.92T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 10.90T |
| Total Liabilities | 54.51T | 58.79T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.48T | 3.71T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -622.45B | -868.58B | -13.14B | -1.15T | -974.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -268.64B | -678.61B | 132.64B | -974.75B | -862.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.94T | -848.65B | -887.94B | 38.95B | -593.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.10T | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.29T | 1.11T |
Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
1334.00
Price Trends
1294.94
Positive
1290.62
Positive
1148.66
Positive
Market Momentum
23.60
Negative
56.42
Neutral
68.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1334 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1277.03, above the 50-day MA of 1294.94, and above the 200-day MA of 1148.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 23.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | ¥207.46B | 20.27 | 26.65% | 4.00% | 14.02% | 13.94% | |
70 Outperform | ¥200.00B | 4.29 | ― | 4.01% | 21.03% | 85.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | ¥1.97T | 10.14 | 9.37% | 4.13% | 6.95% | 15.03% | |
65 Neutral | ¥233.66B | 13.77 | 14.00% | 5.13% | 34.33% | 47.34% | |
59 Neutral | ¥3.51T | 11.81 | 10.23% | 3.93% | 0.46% | 6.87% | |
43 Neutral | ¥167.32B | 13.27 | 7.26% | 4.16% | 9.77% | -52.42% |
* Financial Sector Average
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Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Sets Year-end Dividend at 24 Yen, Normalizing Payout After Commemorative Boost
Apr 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings has declared a year-end dividend of 24 yen per share for shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026, with payment scheduled for June 1, 2026, funded from retained earnings. The decision sets the full-year FY2025/26 dividend at 51 ...
Nomura Lifts Earnings for FY2026 but Trims Annual Dividend After Commemorative Payout
Apr 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported steady growth for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, with net revenue rising 14.5% to ¥2.17 trillion and net income attributable to shareholders increasing 6.3% to ¥362.1 billion, while profitability ratios su...
Nomura to Roll Out Multi-Year Equity Incentive Plan for Executives and Staff
Apr 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings plans to grant restricted stock units and performance share units in late May 2026 to directors, executive officers and employees across the group as part of a deferred compensation framework. Shares linked to these awards, estimat...
Nomura Hits Record Profit as Wealth, Investment and Wholesale Units Power Growth
Apr 24, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported record full-year results for the period ended March 31, 2026, with group net revenue rising 15% to ¥2.17 trillion and net income hitting an all-time high of ¥362.1 billion, delivering a return on equity of 10.1%....
Nomura Nears ¥60 Billion Cap in Ongoing Share Buyback Program
Apr 15, 2026
Nomura Holdings has completed a tranche of its share buyback program authorized by its Board of Directors, repurchasing 14,309,600 common shares on the stock exchange via a trust bank between April 1 and April 15, 2026, for a total of about ¥...
Nomura Withdraws Shelf Registration for Treasury Share Disposal Used in Incentive Plans
Apr 14, 2026
Nomura Holdings has withdrawn a previously filed shelf registration statement covering the disposal of treasury shares intended for use in its Restricted Stock Unit and Performance Share Unit compensation plans. The move follows the filing of an e...
Nomura Reports Strong Capital and TLAC Ratios for Year-End 2025
Apr 10, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported its consolidated regulatory capital and liquidity coverage metrics for the period ended December 31, 2025, indicating solid capitalization levels. The group’s common equity Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 13.07%, with ...
Nomura Reports Progress on ¥60 Billion Share Buyback Programme
Apr 1, 2026
Nomura Holdings has provided an update on its ongoing share buyback program authorized by its board in January 2026 under Japan’s Companies Act. Between March 1 and March 31, the group repurchased 24,638,300 common shares on the stock exchan...
Nomura Begins Executing Share Buyback, Repurchasing 7.9 Million Shares
Mar 2, 2026
Nomura Holdings has reported initial progress under its latest share buyback program, signaling continued efforts to return capital to shareholders and manage its equity base. The program, authorized by the board in late January, allows repurchase...
Nomura Confirms Higher Nine-Month Profit as Audit Review Backs Results
Feb 10, 2026
Nomura Holdings reported consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025 under U.S. GAAP, confirming that an interim review by certified public accountants has been completed with no changes to the figures disclosed on January 30....
Nomura Details Third-Quarter Fiscal 2025/26 Metrics in Comprehensive Supplement
Feb 4, 2026
Nomura’s third-quarter fiscal 2025/26 financial supplement outlines consolidated results, segment performance across wealth, investment, wholesale, and banking units, and supporting data such as balance sheet metrics, value-at-risk calculati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.