Nomura Holdings (8604) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.08T
• Dividend Yield: 3.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: 4.32%
• EPS Growth: 80.03%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 26,850
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 35.19
• Shares Outstanding: 3,163,562,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,829,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,994,656
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 64.62
• 1Y Price Target: $800.41
• Price Target Upside: -24.77% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,232.00 ▲(15.79% Upside)

Nomura Holdings' strong financial performance and technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust revenue growth and operational improvements are tempered by challenges in cash flow management and high leverage. Technical analysis shows strong bullish momentum, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be undervalued. The earnings call provided positive insights, though some risks remain.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Nomura's third-quarter net profit significantly exceeded both internal forecasts and consensus estimates.

Shareholder Returns

A 100-year anniversary commemorative dividend has been announced, which will lead to additional shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Investment Banking Revenue

A decline is expected in individual investors’ trading value, investment trust sales, and equity capital markets revenue in the investment banking division.

Share Buybacks

Management is cautious on share buybacks for FY3/25, and a large share buyback is not expected with the 3Q results.

Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Retail segment offers various financial products and investment services. As of March 31, 2022, this segment operated a network of 119 branches. The Investment Management segment engages in the management of funds, investment trusts, and other investment vehicles; and provision of investment advisory, custodial, and administrative services. The Wholesale segment is involved in the research, sale, trading, agency execution, and market-making of fixed income and equity-related products. It also engages in underwriting various securities and other financial instruments, such as various classes of shares, convertible and exchangeable securities, investment grade and high yield debts, sovereign and emerging market debts, structured securities, and other securities; arranging private placements, as well as other capital raising activities; and the provision of financial advisory services on business transactions comprising mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs, capital structuring, corporate defense activities, leveraged buyouts, and risk solutions. In addition, this segment offers various financial instruments. The company was formerly known as The Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nomura Holdings, Inc. in October 2001. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura Holdings generates revenue through its diversified financial services offerings. In the Retail segment, the company earns fees and commissions from brokerage services, as well as interest income from client transactions. The Asset Management segment contributes through management and performance fees from investment funds and institutional accounts. The Wholesale segment, encompassing Global Markets and Investment Banking, generates revenue from trading activities, underwriting securities, and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and restructuring. Additionally, Nomura benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its service capabilities and market reach.

Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nomura Holdings shows strong revenue growth and operational improvements, but faces challenges with cash flow management and high leverage risks. Profitability metrics have strengthened, yet volatility in margins and revenue growth highlight potential uncertainties.

Income Statement

Nomura Holdings experienced a significant increase in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year, alongside a substantial rise in EBIT and net income, reflecting a strong operational performance. The gross profit margin improved markedly, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin and revenue growth rates exhibit volatility over the years, indicating some instability in earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a leveraged position, which poses financial risk. However, stockholders' equity has been gradually increasing, reflecting strengthening of the financial base. The equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting limited buffer to absorb potential losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows impacting liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating profits into cash. Despite these issues, there has been a positive trend in cash and cash equivalents, providing some liquidity cushion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.74T	4.74T	1.38T	1.15T	1.14T	1.24T
Gross Profit	1.67T	1.65T	1.36T	-181.27B	748.88B	853.11B
EBITDA	488.08B	533.62B	273.49B	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	340.74B	340.74B	165.86B	92.79B	143.00B	153.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	56.80T	56.80T	55.15T	47.77T	43.41T	42.52T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.07T	5.51T	4.24T	3.82T	3.32T	3.51T
Total Debt	31.17T	31.17T	14.09T	11.74T	10.90T	9.94T
Total Liabilities	53.22T	53.22T	51.70T	44.55T	40.44T	39.76T
Stockholders Equity	3.47T	3.47T	3.35T	3.15T	2.91T	2.69T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.83T	-13.14B	-1.15T	-1.48T	545.89B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-1.64T	132.64B	-974.75B	-1.37T	665.77B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-848.65B	-887.94B	38.95B	-45.30B	-139.03B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.68T	1.01T	1.29T	1.07T	-269.93B

Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1064.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1064 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1061.30, above the 50-day MA of 999.77, and above the 200-day MA of 918.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 14.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.

Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8604	76 Outperform	$3.08T	8.51	11.06%	3.45%	4.32%	80.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.06B	11.97	10.24%	3.74%	9.75%	1.30%
DSECF	―	$10.63B	10.24	10.33%	4.54%	―	―
MNXBF	―	$1.36B	9.85	-5.08%	4.25%	―	―
MTW	―	€1.19B	18.17	14.70%	―	―	―
8707	78 Outperform	¥63.30B	8.94		5.46%	5.08%	17.07%
8609	74 Outperform	¥149.84B	13.59		4.40%	-5.10%	-9.68%

Nomura Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Performance Amid Market Uncertainties

Nomura Holdings reported its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2025, showing significant growth in key financial metrics compared to the previous year. The company experienced a 51.7% increase in net income attributable to shareholders, alongside a 55.7% rise in income before taxes. Despite these gains, the comprehensive income saw a notable decline of 67.4%. The company’s financial position remains stable with a slight increase in total assets and equity. However, due to uncertainties in the global capital markets, Nomura has not provided earnings forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Q1 Financial Performance

Nomura Holdings reported a robust start to its fiscal year with all business divisions showing increased net revenue and pretax income quarter on quarter. The company achieved a net income of 104.6 billion yen, driven by strong performances in wealth management and investment management, with the latter reaching an all-time high in assets under management. Despite market volatility, Nomura continued to expand its global platform and diversify its revenue streams, notably through a recent acquisition in the US and Europe. The banking division, established in April, also showed growth in loans and system upgrades, positioning Nomura for further expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Completes Share Buyback Program

Nomura Holdings announced the completion of a share buyback program, repurchasing 19,200,700 common shares for approximately 18 billion yen. This buyback is part of a broader initiative authorized by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 100 million shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Updates on Share Buyback Progress

Nomura Holdings has announced the status of its share buyback program, initially resolved in April 2025. As of June 30, 2025, the company has repurchased over 47 million shares, amounting to approximately 41.9 billion yen, as part of its authorized plan to buy back up to 100 million shares valued at 60 billion yen by the end of December 2025. This move is likely aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Updates on Share Buyback Program Progress

Nomura Holdings, Inc. has announced the status of its share buyback program, which was initiated following a Board of Directors meeting on April 25, 2025. As of May 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 21,919,900 common shares at an aggregate cost of 19,029,171,920 yen. This move is part of a broader strategy to buy back up to 100 million shares, valued at up to 60 billion yen, by the end of the year. The buyback is conducted through the stock exchange via a trust bank, reflecting Nomura’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Holdings Issues Euro-Denominated Senior Notes

Nomura Holdings has announced the issuance of Euro-denominated senior notes under its Euro Note Programme, intended to qualify as TLAC-eligible debt. The issuance, amounting to EUR 700 million with a fixed interest rate of 3.459% per annum, is part of Nomura’s strategy to meet Japanese TLAC standards, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen870.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.