Nomura Holdings (8604) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.38T
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.57
• Revenue Growth: -2.45%
• EPS Growth: 35.60%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 26,850
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 31.35
• Shares Outstanding: 3,163,562,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,693,140
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,993,590
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,400.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,324.00 ▲(18.27% Upside)

Nomura Holdings demonstrates strong technical momentum and a solid valuation, supported by positive earnings call sentiment. Financial performance shows robust growth but is tempered by cash flow and leverage challenges. The stock's attractive valuation and dividend yield further enhance its appeal.

Positive Factors

Record Highs in Wealth and Investment Management

Sustained inflows and record highs in wealth and investment management indicate strong client trust and effective asset management strategies, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Strong Performance in Global Markets

Record revenues in equities and strong global market performance highlight Nomura's competitive edge and ability to capitalize on market opportunities, driving future growth.

Consistent Achievement of ROE Targets

Consistently meeting ROE targets demonstrates effective capital management and operational efficiency, enhancing investor confidence and supporting sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage Risks

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk during economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.

Cash Flow Challenges

Inefficient cash flow conversion from profits can limit investment capacity and operational flexibility, posing risks to long-term growth and stability.

Decline in Group-Wide Net Revenue

A decline in overall revenue signals potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum, necessitating strategic adjustments to sustain long-term performance.

Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (TSE: 8604) is a leading financial services group headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, offering a wide range of services across various sectors including retail brokerage, asset management, and investment banking. The company operates through its subsidiaries, providing services such as securities trading, wealth management, and advisory services, catering to individual, institutional, and corporate clients globally. Nomura is recognized for its strong presence in the Asian markets, as well as its strategic expansion into international markets, enabling comprehensive financial solutions that leverage its deep market expertise.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily including brokerage commissions from its retail and institutional clients, asset management fees, and investment banking revenues from advisory services, underwriting, and capital market transactions. The firm's retail brokerage division earns money through trading commissions and fees on securities transactions. In asset management, Nomura generates income from management fees based on the assets under management (AUM) and performance fees for achieving specific investment benchmarks. The investment banking segment contributes through advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, underwriting fees from debt and equity issuance, and other related services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its service offerings and expand its client base, further bolstering its earnings potential.

Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nomura Holdings shows strong revenue growth and operational improvements, but faces challenges with cash flow management and high leverage risks. Profitability metrics have strengthened, yet volatility in margins and revenue growth highlight potential uncertainties.

Income Statement

Nomura Holdings experienced a significant increase in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year, alongside a substantial rise in EBIT and net income, reflecting a strong operational performance. The gross profit margin improved markedly, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin and revenue growth rates exhibit volatility over the years, indicating some instability in earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a leveraged position, which poses financial risk. However, stockholders' equity has been gradually increasing, reflecting strengthening of the financial base. The equity ratio remains relatively low, suggesting limited buffer to absorb potential losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows impacting liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating profits into cash. Despite these issues, there has been a positive trend in cash and cash equivalents, providing some liquidity cushion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.54T	4.74T	3.97T	2.30T	1.37T	1.41T
Gross Profit	1.78T	1.65T	1.38T	1.14T	1.14T	1.20T
EBITDA	529.32B	533.62B	335.19B	210.90B	286.15B	294.52B
Net Income	376.36B	340.74B	165.86B	92.79B	143.00B	153.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.10T	56.80T	55.15T	47.77T	43.41T	42.52T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.55T	5.07T	4.24T	4.52T	4.06T	4.16T
Total Debt	30.97T	31.17T	30.96T	26.15T	10.90T	9.94T
Total Liabilities	54.51T	53.22T	51.70T	44.55T	40.44T	39.76T
Stockholders Equity	3.48T	3.47T	3.35T	3.15T	2.91T	2.69T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-868.58B	-13.14B	-1.15T	-974.16B	545.89B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-678.61B	132.64B	-974.75B	-862.83B	665.77B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-848.65B	-887.94B	38.95B	-593.18B	-139.03B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.68T	1.01T	1.29T	1.11T	-269.93B

Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1119.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8604, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1119.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1329.00, below the 50-day MA of 1226.38, and above the 200-day MA of 1009.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 57.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8604.

Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8707	81 Outperform	¥85.15B	10.43	―	5.75%	10.85%	30.77%
8609	78 Outperform	¥184.09B	14.97	―	4.01%	-2.39%	-4.54%
8601	76 Outperform	¥2.09T	13.93	9.37%	4.13%	-0.87%	6.88%
8604	76 Outperform	¥4.38T	12.27	10.65%	3.93%	-2.45%	35.60%
8628	69 Neutral	¥230.06B	21.06	14.00%	5.13%	3.27%	-1.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8698	43 Neutral	¥190.62B	-43.56	-3.97%	4.16%	14.69%	-114.36%

Nomura Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Trust and Banking to Acquire 6.48% Voting Stake in Alpen via Impact Neutralization Trust

The Nomura Trust and Banking Co., Ltd., part of the Nomura Group, plans to acquire 25,000 voting rights, equivalent to a planned 6.48% stake, in Alpen Co., Ltd. between December 26, 2025 and January 7, 2026 under a trust agreement related to an Impact Neutralization Trust. The size and timing of the proposed stake suggest a targeted, structured investment that could modestly increase Nomura’s exposure to Alpen while allowing flexibility for market conditions, underscoring Nomura’s continued use of trust-based structures in its asset and corporate governance-related activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Completes Acquisition of Macquarie’s Asset Management Business

Nomura has completed the acquisition of Macquarie’s U.S. and European public asset management business for $1.8 billion, adding approximately $166 billion in client assets to its portfolio. This acquisition marks a significant step towards Nomura’s 2030 Management Vision by enhancing its asset management capabilities and diversifying its platform. The newly formed Nomura Asset Management International will be led by Shawn Lytle and Robert Stark, aiming to build a global platform with strong investment capabilities. Additionally, Nomura and Macquarie have established a strategic partnership for product distribution and co-development of investment strategies, further strengthening their collaboration and expanding their reach in the U.S. and Japan.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Buy with a Yen1324.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Holdings Reports Strong Financial Performance Amid Market Uncertainties

Nomura Holdings reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the six months ended September 30, 2025, with total revenue and net income showing notable growth compared to the previous year. The company achieved a 29% increase in total revenue and a 17.5% rise in net income attributable to shareholders, indicating strong operational performance. Despite uncertainties in the global capital markets, Nomura has not provided earnings forecasts for the upcoming year, reflecting the unpredictable economic and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Holdings Achieves Strong Financial Growth in Q2

Nomura Holdings reported robust financial results for the second quarter and first half of the fiscal year, with significant increases in group pretax and net income year-on-year. The company achieved record highs in wealth management recurring revenue assets and investment management assets under management, reflecting strong net inflows. The wholesale division also showed substantial growth, supported by record equities revenues and solid banking operations. These results underscore Nomura’s efforts to enhance stable revenues and deepen its global strategy, positioning itself strongly within the financial services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8604) stock is a Hold with a Yen1130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Holdings stock, see the JP:8604 Stock Forecast page.