Okasan Securities Group Inc. (8609) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥193.15B
• Dividend Yield: 4.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 312.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -2.39%
• EPS Growth: -4.54%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,281
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 27.87
• Shares Outstanding: 231,217,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 261,570
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 312,566
• PEG Ratio: -1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.59
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,044.00 ▲(38.83% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (robust equity position and improving free cash flow) and bullish technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a solid dividend yield, while revenue and net margin inconsistency temper the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Strong Capital Structure

Low leverage and a strong equity ratio provide durable financial resiliency for a securities firm. This supports regulatory capital requirements, underpins underwriting capacity, allows opportunistic market-making, and preserves financial flexibility during market downturns without needing urgent external financing.

Improving Cash Generation

Rising free cash flow and solid operating cash conversion strengthen the firm's ability to fund growth, pay recurring obligations, and sustain client-service investments. Persistent cash generation supports dividend policy, technology spend, and buffering of trading or underwriting volatility over the medium term.

Operational Margin Strength

Consistently healthy gross and operating margins signal efficient cost management and scalable brokerage operations. Margin resilience allows reinvestment in distribution and systems, maintains profitability across business cycles, and enhances the ability to compete on service and pricing long-term.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Revenue Trends

Volatile and recently declining revenues reduce earnings predictability and constrain strategic planning. For a capital-markets franchise, unstable fee and trading income complicates investment timing, hiring, and product development, limiting sustainable growth unless revenue streams are diversified.

Variable Net Profit Margins

Fluctuating net margins indicate earnings quality risks from variable trading gains, provisioning or cost pressures. Persistent margin weakness would erode return on equity and reduce retained earnings available for reinvestment or shareholder distributions, weakening long-term capital accumulation.

Cyclical Revenue Dependence

Heavy reliance on trading volumes and underwriting ties revenue to capital-markets cycles. Structural downturns or prolonged low-volatility regimes can materially curtail commissions, underwriting fees and trading profits, creating persistent revenue pressure unless the firm builds more stable, fee-based businesses.

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Okasan Securities Group Inc., a securities company, provides securities investment and asset management services for individual, institutional, and corporate clients in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Securities Business, Asset Management Business, and Support Business segments. Its services include trading in securities; brokerage for trading in securities; and underwriting, distribution, public offering, secondary distribution, and private offering of securities, as well as asset management consulting, online trading services, and corporate services, including support services for IPOs, IR, and M&A proposing and business matching. The company also provides investment management and investment advisory services; sets up and manages investment trusts; and administers and manages investment partnerships. In addition, it engages in developing and implementing operational systems; information processing services; custodianship and temping services; delivering system infrastructures; and offers administrative and other support services, including back-office operations, data entry, forms preparation, and shipping services, as well as property management and other services. The company was formerly known as Okasan Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Okasan Securities Group Inc. in October 2008. Okasan Securities Group Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Okasan Securities Group generates revenue primarily through brokerage fees from trading activities in stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments. The company charges commissions for executing trades on behalf of clients, which constitutes a significant portion of its income. Additionally, it earns management fees from its asset management services, where it oversees investment portfolios for clients. The company also benefits from underwriting fees through its investment banking operations, where it assists in the issuance of new securities. Key revenue streams include retail brokerage commissions, institutional trading services, and asset management fees. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and technology providers enhance its trading capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings growth.

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall financial health supported by a solid balance sheet (low debt-to-equity, strong equity ratio) and improving free cash flow. Offsetting factors include fluctuating revenue and a recent decline in net profit margin despite healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins.

Income Statement

The company shows a fluctuating revenue pattern with recent declines. Gross profit margins are strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has been inconsistent, showing a decline in the most recent period. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates solid equity with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. The equity ratio is strong, pointing to a robust capital structure. Return on equity has been stable, showcasing the company's ability to generate profits from its equity base.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals significant improvements in free cash flow, indicating enhanced liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests solid cash generation capability. The negative investing cash flow reflects continued investment in growth opportunities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	78.75B	84.25B	87.61B	67.96B	85.07B	68.42B
Gross Profit	75.96B	79.00B	85.66B	66.28B	83.86B	67.22B
EBITDA	14.75B	18.22B	21.42B	5.73B	18.30B	11.36B
Net Income	10.06B	11.65B	13.17B	529.00M	10.07B	6.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.37T	1.38T	1.21T	876.06B	816.57B	783.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	557.58B	51.50B	514.07B	91.71B	90.06B	71.07B
Total Debt	156.55B	162.99B	166.09B	177.05B	165.12B	143.00B
Total Liabilities	1.17T	1.17T	993.63B	690.42B	626.71B	593.14B
Stockholders Equity	201.27B	208.23B	199.16B	173.44B	168.33B	168.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-24.21B	-6.48B	-8.85B	-5.74B	-42.99B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-20.69B	-4.76B	-1.36B	-4.20B	-40.94B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	6.18B	2.39B	1.67B	7.04B	-3.72B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-18.50B	-4.41B	16.58B	13.26B	42.60B

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 752.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8609, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 752 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 851.30, below the 50-day MA of 784.06, and above the 200-day MA of 704.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 32.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.61 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8609.

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8707	81 Outperform	¥79.98B	8.69	―	5.75%	10.85%	30.77%
8609	80 Outperform	¥193.15B	12.58	―	4.01%	-2.39%	-4.54%
8613	71 Outperform	¥69.77B	13.38	9.22%	6.15%	7.45%	45.25%
8628	69 Neutral	¥232.64B	17.80	14.00%	5.13%	3.27%	-1.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8708	64 Neutral	¥43.37B	17.46	―	4.36%	1.14%	-16.88%
8698	43 Neutral	¥176.74B	-40.74	-3.97%	4.16%	14.69%	-114.36%

Okasan Securities Group Inc. Corporate Events

Okasan Securities Group Posts Strong Nine-Month Profit, Keeps Dividend Outlook Uncertain

Okasan Securities Group reported solid growth for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising 11.4% year on year to ¥69.3 billion, net operating revenue up 9.5%, and profit attributable to owners of parent climbing 23.8% to ¥11.8 billion. Earnings per share increased to ¥58.84, while total assets declined to ¥1.25 trillion and the equity ratio improved to 17.6%, reflecting a stronger capital position. The company maintained a zero interim dividend and left the full-year dividend forecast undecided, citing the difficulty of forecasting results in a market-dependent business, and it does not provide full-year earnings guidance for the same reason. During the period, three entities, including Okasan Capital Partners (now renamed SBI Okasan Alternative Investment Co., Ltd.) and two related investment partnerships, were removed from the scope of consolidation, signaling a restructuring of its alternative investment operations and a potential shift in group structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8609) stock is a Buy with a Yen958.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Okasan Securities Group Inc. stock, see the JP:8609 Stock Forecast page.

Okasan Securities Unveils New Shareholder Benefit Program

Okasan Securities Group Inc. has announced the introduction of a two-tiered shareholder benefit program aimed at encouraging long-term shareholding. The program offers digital gifts and promotional fixed deposit rates, with benefits increasing based on the duration of shareholding. This initiative is part of the company’s strategy to balance growth investment with shareholder returns, thereby strengthening its relationship with shareholders and enhancing corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8609) stock is a Buy with a Yen801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Okasan Securities Group Inc. stock, see the JP:8609 Stock Forecast page.