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Daiwa (JP:8601)
:8601

Daiwa (8601) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:8601

Daiwa

(8601)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
¥1,860.00
▲(26.27% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:11/14/25
Daiwa's stock is supported by strong technical momentum and a reasonable valuation, making it attractive for growth and income-focused investors. However, financial risks due to high leverage and negative cash flow need to be monitored closely.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Trend
Daiwa’s near-doubling of revenue to ¥1.37tn demonstrates scalable fee, trading and underwriting businesses. Sustained top-line expansion supports reinvestment in products and distribution, improves bargaining power with clients, and strengthens market coverage over the medium term.
Margin Improvement
Meaningful gains in gross and net margins indicate better business mix and cost discipline, likely from higher-fee businesses and operating efficiency. Improved margins provide a durable earnings cushion and greater internal funding capacity for strategic initiatives across cycles.
Diversified Business Model
Daiwa’s multi-channel revenue model—retail brokerage, institutional trading, investment banking and asset management—reduces dependence on any single market segment. Structural diversification smooths earnings volatility and supports cross-selling and long-term client relationships.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
A very low equity ratio and elevated leverage materially increase solvency and refinancing risk. High debt limits strategic flexibility, raises funding costs under stress and amplifies earnings swings if market conditions or asset values deteriorate, constraining long-term resilience.
Weak Cash Generation
Negative free cash flow despite reported profits signals persistent cash-generation challenges. Continued cash outflows can force reliance on external funding, reduce ability to invest organically or sustain dividends, and heighten liquidity risk if market funding tightens.
Revenue Cyclicality
Material sensitivity to trading volumes, market levels, interest-rate moves and capital markets issuance makes revenue inherently cyclical. Prolonged weak markets or reduced deal flow can meaningfully depress fees and trading income, pressuring profitability over several quarters.

Daiwa (8601) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Daiwa Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDaiwa Securities Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, primarily operates as a securities broker-dealer in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Wholesale, Asset management, and Investment. It provides services, such as brokerage, trading, underwriting, strategic advice, product development, and structured finance. The Retail segment offers online and telephone-based securities-related services through a network of 177 branches and sales offices, as well as non-face-to-face channels comprising the Internet and a call center. The Wholesale segment offers sales and trading services of equities and bonds, as well as of foreign exchange and derivative products, primarily for institutional investors and corporations; and investment banking services, such as underwriting of securities, M&A advisory, etc. The Asset Management segment structures and manages investment trusts primarily for individual investors and financial institutions; provides investment advisory services; and manages assets. The Investment segment is involved in the loans, private equity, and real estate, as well as energy, infrastructure, and resource investment activities. It also offers research and consulting, information systems, banking, insurance, wrap account, inheritance-related, and other support services; and engages in the securities-related, investment advisory and agency, and investment management businesses, as well as lending and borrowing of real estate properties. The company was formerly known as Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Daiwa Securities Group Inc. in 1999. Daiwa Securities Group Inc. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyDaiwa generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary revenue source is brokerage commissions from trading activities conducted on behalf of clients, both individual and institutional. Additionally, the firm earns fees from asset management services and investment advisory, where it manages investment portfolios for clients and provides strategic advice. The investment banking segment contributes to revenue through underwriting fees and advisory fees related to mergers and acquisitions. Furthermore, Daiwa benefits from proprietary trading and interest income from its financing activities. Strategic partnerships with various financial institutions and technology firms also enhance its service offerings and can lead to additional revenue opportunities.

Daiwa Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 31, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong performance in asset-based revenue, overseas operations, and the investment division, but faced challenges in global markets, profit reduction, and wholesale division performance. Despite these challenges, the company shows resilience and potential for growth, particularly in the Retail Division.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Asset-Based Revenue in Retail Division
Daiwa Securities Group posted record high asset-based revenue in the Retail Division due to increased sales of equity investment trusts and a high level of wrap account contracts.
Positive Performance in Overseas Operations
Ordinary income from overseas operations was JPY 6.4 billion, up 67.1% from the previous quarter, driven by revenue growth in Europe and strong performance in the Americas.
Significant Increase in Investment Division Revenue
Net operating revenues in the Investment Division were JPY 8.3 billion, up 83.1%, with ordinary income up 12.8%.
Retail Division's Strong Start in January
In January, Retail Division's performance expanded significantly with an approximately 40% increase in income from equity transactions and investment trust sales compared to Q3.
Negative Updates
Decline in Global Markets Revenue
Global Markets saw a decline in net operating revenues by 8.6% and ordinary income by 44.4% due to lower customer flows and a decrease in trading of Japanese equities.
Decrease in Profit Attributable to Owners
Profit attributable to owners of the parent company was JPY 28.4 billion, down 4.5% from the previous quarter.
Challenges in Wholesale Division
The Wholesale Division reported a decrease in revenues from the debt underwriting business due to a rise in interest rates and a reduced number of long-term bond issuances.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2023, Daiwa Securities Group Inc. reported net operating revenues of JPY 147.8 billion, a 2.5% increase from the previous quarter, and ordinary income of JPY 40.8 billion, reflecting a marginal 0.1% rise. However, profit attributable to owners of the parent company decreased by 4.5% to JPY 28.4 billion, leading to an annualized ROE of 7.7%. The Retail Division saw a 1% increase in net operating revenues to JPY 49.8 billion, with ordinary income rising 4.6% to JPY 12.5 billion, driven by high wrap account contracts and investment trust sales. Meanwhile, the Wholesale Division experienced an 8.6% decline in net operating revenues, totaling JPY 33.7 billion, and a 44.4% drop in ordinary income to JPY 5 billion, attributed to reduced customer flows and interest rate hikes. The Asset Management Division reported a 3.3% increase in net operating revenues, reaching JPY 18.6 billion, and ordinary income rose by 0.8% to JPY 11.6 billion. The company noted strong performance in overseas operations, especially in the Americas and Europe, with a remarkable 67.1% increase in ordinary income to JPY 6.4 billion. The group continues to focus on improving its income structure's sustainability and diversity, with a strategic emphasis on wealth management and expanding its business portfolio. Looking ahead, Daiwa aims to achieve an ROE exceeding its 8% to 9% cost of capital by the end of the fiscal year and is optimistic about maintaining growth in its Retail and Wholesale Divisions under favorable market conditions.

Daiwa Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Daiwa exhibits strong revenue growth and improved profitability, which are positive signs of business expansion. However, high leverage and negative cash flow reflect potential financial risk. While the company is on a growth trajectory, it must carefully manage its debt and improve cash flow to sustain long-term financial health.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Daiwa has shown substantial revenue growth over the past year, increasing from 773 billion to 1.37 trillion yen, representing a significant growth trajectory. The gross profit margin improved to 52.8%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 11.2%, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin decreased slightly, suggesting potential pressure on operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is notably high, reflecting considerable leverage which poses a risk if not managed well. However, the return on equity has improved to 9.4%, signifying improved profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains low at 4.6%, indicating heavy reliance on debt to finance assets, which could be a concern if market conditions worsen.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The free cash flow has turned negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to significant outflows, suggesting cash management challenges. However, the company has managed its investing and financing activities to support strategic initiatives.
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue689.97B1.39T1.30T876.88B632.52B582.16B
Gross Profit699.68B780.06B773.02B606.48B585.97B527.05B
EBITDA159.50B264.85B227.15B142.54B187.82B186.90B
Net Income107.82B154.37B121.56B63.88B94.89B108.40B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets34.62T36.02T32.03T26.41T27.53T26.10T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.29T20.72T4.96T3.87T4.59T4.76T
Total Debt3.17T5.39T5.17T5.05T5.52T5.04T
Total Liabilities32.72T34.10T30.24T24.74T25.89T24.51T
Stockholders Equity1.62T1.65T1.53T1.42T1.38T1.34T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-622.91B-622.91B640.63B-264.99B-439.05B332.38B
Operating Cash Flow-576.09B-576.09B705.12B-183.75B-353.47B390.98B
Investing Cash Flow-353.44B-353.44B-223.99B7.46B-218.53B-91.64B
Financing Cash Flow199.02B199.02B-2.85B-565.88B377.09B438.07B

Daiwa Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1473.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1509.38
Positive
100DMA
1378.26
Positive
200DMA
1210.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
28.83
Positive
RSI
58.95
Neutral
STOCH
39.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8601, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1473 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1594.60, below the 50-day MA of 1509.38, and above the 200-day MA of 1210.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8601.

Daiwa Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
¥92.66B10.065.75%10.85%30.77%
80
Outperform
¥220.33B14.354.01%-2.39%-4.54%
76
Outperform
¥2.23T14.809.37%4.13%-0.87%6.88%
69
Neutral
¥245.75B18.8014.00%5.13%3.27%-1.81%
69
Neutral
¥4.29T12.3010.65%3.93%-2.45%35.60%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
43
Neutral
¥188.60B21.40-3.97%4.16%14.69%-114.36%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8601
Daiwa
1,646.00
650.70
65.38%
JP:8698
Monex Group
747.00
33.66
4.72%
JP:8628
Matsui Securities Co
956.00
200.51
26.54%
JP:8604
Nomura Holdings
1,452.50
539.66
59.12%
JP:8609
Okasan Securities Group Inc.
997.00
389.77
64.19%
JP:8707
IwaiCosmo Holdings, Inc.
3,945.00
1,630.32
70.43%

Daiwa Corporate Events

Daiwa Securities Revamps Top Management in 2026 Leadership Overhaul
Feb 26, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group Inc., a leading Japanese securities and financial services group, operates through businesses spanning wealth management, asset management, brokerage, investment banking and research, serving a broad base of retail and institutional clients. Its structure is built around Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and related subsidiaries, with executives overseeing key areas such as corporate planning, compliance, risk management, sustainability and financial education.

The group announced a sweeping leadership reshuffle effective April and June 2026, including new board appointments for Junichi Serizawa and Kotaro Yoshida, and the addition of outside director Christina Ahmadjian, while several long-serving directors, including Shinsuke Niizuma and Keiko Tashiro, will retire. A series of promotions and changes in responsibility will see new deputy presidents, senior executive managing directors and executive managing directors installed across functions such as COO, CFO, compliance, corporate planning, risk management, wealth and asset management, signaling a bid to strengthen governance, succession and strategic focus across its core business lines.

The reorganization redistributes top roles within Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and Daiwa Asset Management, with Niizuma shifting to head asset management and chair Daiwa Asset Management, and executives like Eiji Sato, Hiroko Sakurai and others elevated to oversee operations, compliance and communications. By tightening alignment between group management and operating companies and concentrating oversight in areas like sustainability, digital strategy and risk, the moves are likely aimed at enhancing operational resilience and sharpening Daiwa’s competitive positioning in Japan’s evolving securities and asset management markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1795.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Elevates Eiji Sato to Representative Corporate Executive Officer
Feb 26, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. has announced changes to its top management, reshuffling its representative corporate executive officers following a resolution by the board of directors on February 26, 2026. The move reflects adjustments within the company’s executive ranks as part of an internal reorganization of leadership roles.

Effective March 31, 2026, Shinsuke Niizuma will step down from his role as representative corporate executive officer while retaining his position as director, member of the board and corporate executive officer, deputy president. From April 1, 2026, long‑time insider and current senior executive managing director and corporate executive officer Eiji Sato will be promoted to director, member of the board and representative corporate executive officer, deputy president.

Sato’s elevation caps a 35‑year career at Daiwa, during which he has held key roles in corporate planning and finance, including multiple stints as chief financial officer and responsibility for overseas operations. The appointment places a seasoned internal strategist with deep knowledge of the group’s planning, financial management and international businesses at the core of Daiwa’s leadership, signaling continuity in management and a potential focus on strengthening corporate planning and global expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1795.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Revamps Shareholder Benefits Amid Cost Pressures
Feb 25, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group has revised its shareholder benefit program in response to rising inflation and higher procurement and distribution costs, aiming to keep the scheme both substantial and sustainable. The company is introducing a new 2,000–2,999 share bracket and adjusting benefit formats and values, including a shift to QUO Cards for smaller holders and higher-value catalog gifts for mid-tier investors.

Under the new structure, shareholders with 1,000–1,999 shares will receive a ¥2,000 QUO Card instead of catalog items, while those with 2,000–2,999 shares will see their benefits raised to ¥3,000 in catalog gifts. Holders of 3,000–4,999 shares will get a combination of a ¥1,000 QUO Card and a ¥3,000 catalog gift, with benefits for owners of 5,000 shares or more largely maintained, and the revised program will take effect for shareholders of record as of September 30, 2026, potentially reinforcing investor loyalty without excessively increasing cost burdens.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Confirms Interim Review Completion With No Changes to Nine-Month Results
Feb 5, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group has completed the interim review by certified public accountants of its Japanese GAAP-based consolidated financial results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, confirming that no revisions were required to the figures disclosed on February 2, 2026. The company reported year-on-year growth in operating revenue, net operating revenue, operating income, and profit attributable to owners of parent, alongside a modest rise in total assets and net assets, and reiterated its dividend policy of semiannual payouts with a minimum full-year dividend of ¥44 per share through the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, while leaving full-year earnings and dividend amounts otherwise undetermined.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1720.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Details 3Q FY2025 Performance and Segment Strategy
Feb 2, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. released materials outlining its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, presenting a detailed breakdown of performance across key segments including wealth management, asset management, global markets, and investment banking. The disclosure highlights base income measures, the composition of asset-based revenues, and separate reporting on balance sheet, financial management, and overseas operations, underscoring the company’s focus on recurring fee income and segment diversification as it manages performance and positions itself within the competitive securities and investment banking market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Posts Higher Nine-Month Revenue and Income, Affirms Generous Dividend Policy
Feb 2, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group reported solid consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising 4.8% year on year to ¥1,075.6 billion and net operating revenue up 10.8% to ¥522.5 billion. Operating income jumped 29.8% to ¥147.8 billion, while profit attributable to owners of the parent edged up 0.8% to ¥125.4 billion, lifting earnings per share to ¥90.05. Total assets expanded to ¥38.6 trillion and stockholders’ equity increased, although the equity ratio dipped slightly to 4.4%, reflecting balance sheet growth. The company confirmed an interim dividend of ¥29 per share and reiterated its policy of paying out at least 50% of consolidated earnings with a minimum full-year dividend of ¥44 per share through the fiscal year ending March 2027, but refrained from issuing a full-year earnings forecast due to the high sensitivity of its securities business to market and economic conditions. Daiwa also reported no significant changes in its consolidation scope or accounting policies over the period, underlining operational continuity amid a volatile market environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1699.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Reports Capital Adequacy and Leverage Ratios as of September 2025
Jan 30, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. has reported its consolidated capital adequacy ratio and consolidated leverage ratio, disclosing the status of its management soundness as of September 30, 2025, in line with Article 57-17 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. The filing outlines key regulatory metrics, the composition of capital, qualitative information on the scope of consolidation and reconciliation to the balance sheet, as well as quantitative details on equity investments in funds and significant investments in financial entities, underscoring the group’s regulatory compliance and transparency on capital strength and leverage for regulators and market participants.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Daiwa Securities Reports Liquidity and Funding Soundness for Q2 FY2025
Jan 30, 2026

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. has disclosed its consolidated Liquidity Coverage Ratio and consolidated Net Stable Funding Ratio as of the second quarter of fiscal 2025, in line with requirements under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act regarding the status of soundness in management. By reporting both qualitative and quantitative information on these key liquidity and funding indicators at the group level, the company aims to demonstrate the robustness of its liquidity risk management framework and reassure regulators, investors, and other stakeholders about the stability and resilience of its balance sheet and funding profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8601) stock is a Buy with a Yen1684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Daiwa stock, see the JP:8601 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025