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Mizuho Financial Group (JP:8411)
:8411

Mizuho Financial Group (8411) AI Stock Analysis

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Mizuho Financial Group

(OTC:8411)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
¥4,458.00
▲(12.18%Upside)
The overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and a stable financial performance. The stock's valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend yield, enhancing its attractiveness. While financial performance is solid, attention is needed for cash flow efficiency improvements.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Mizuho Financial Group achieved a 3QFY24 net profit of JPY289.2bn, which was well above consensus, driven by higher lending income and robust fee income.
Growth Strategy
Mizuho is pursuing growth through a three-year medium-term plan and aims to expand its customer base.
Shareholder Returns
Higher dividends are anticipated with the new shareholder return policy.
Negative Factors
Asset Quality
Downside risks include potential declines in domestic interest rates, changes in expectations for BOJ's monetary policy normalization, and worsening asset quality in Japan.
Financial Performance
The share price has been weak reflecting conservative FY3/26 guidance/medium-term plan targets and a lack of clarity on the new shareholder return policy.
Interest Rates
Downside risks include declining domestic interest rates and changes in expectations for BOJ's monetary policy.

Mizuho Financial Group (8411) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Mizuho Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Retail & Business Banking Company, Corporate & Institutional Company, Global Corporate Company, Global Markets Company, and Asset Management Company. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers financial solutions, such as bonds, mergers and acquisitions advisory, risk hedging products, etc. for corporate customers to meet their needs in fund-raising, investment management, and financial strategies; solutions based on their capital management, business strategy, and financial strategy; real estate agency services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on proposals on various investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers sales and trading services to meet needs for customers; investment products for individual customers; and consulting services for institutional investors. Additionally, the company provides products and services related to trust, securitization and structured finance, pension, and stock transfers; securities services; and research, private banking, and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMizuho Financial Group generates revenue through various streams including interest income from loans and advances, fees from asset management services, and trading gains from securities. The company also earns significant income from its investment banking operations, which provide underwriting, advisory, and other financial services to corporate clients. Additionally, Mizuho has strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach. The group's diversified portfolio and global presence play a crucial role in its ability to maintain a stable revenue flow.

Mizuho Financial Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025
(Q2-2024)
|
% Change Since: 3.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a positive financial outlook with significant achievements in growth and integration efforts, particularly with Greenhill and Rakuten. However, challenges remain in the asset and wealth management sector and rising expenses.
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Medium-Term Business Plan Targets
Mizuho Financial Group exceeded their final target for FY 2025 ahead of time in the first half of the medium-term business plan.
Solid Financial Progress
Forecasted net business profit for FY24 is ¥1.17 trillion, up ¥100 billion.
Increase in Retail AUM and Accounts
Retail AUM increased by ¥4.9 trillion, and NISA accounts increased by 120,000.
Successful Greenhill Integration
Greenhill integration is progressing with 1,400 joint proposals made, 44 in the pipeline.
Positive Recognition and Awards
Ranked 7th in Forbes Japan's new best companies and 83rd in TIME's World Best Companies of 2024.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Asset and Wealth Management
The asset and wealth management sector is not performing as expected, with performance gaps compared to competitors.
Increased Expenses
Expenses are rising due to necessary investments in human resources and infrastructure.
Low PBR and Need for Revenue Stability
PBR as of end of October was 0.79, currently 0.86, with a need for stable revenue and competitive edge.
Company Guidance
In the recent investor presentation for the first half of fiscal year 2024, Mizuho Financial Group reported exceeding their final financial targets for FY 2025 ahead of schedule. The company announced a forecasted net business profit of ¥1.17 trillion for FY24, reflecting a ¥100 billion increase. Key strategic focuses include solidifying sustainable growth, enhancing competitive edge, and optimizing capital use. Mizuho emphasized improvements in asset profitability, noting a reduction of ¥1.1 trillion in low-profit deals and an increase of ¥1.6 trillion in high-profit business, with RORA rising from 3.1% to 3.3%. Additionally, the CET1 ratio reached 10.5%, allowing for a balanced approach to growth investments and shareholder returns. An important strategic move was the increased stake in Rakuten Securities to 49%, aimed at strengthening asset and wealth management capabilities. The group also highlighted the importance of operational stability, the need for a distinctive business portfolio, and initiatives to enhance their competitive edge, such as leveraging synergies with Greenhill.

Mizuho Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mizuho Financial Group shows strong revenue growth and efficient cost management, with healthy margins. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity base despite high leverage, typical for banks. Challenges in converting earnings to operating cash flow and negative free cash flow growth highlight a need for improved cash flow efficiency.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Mizuho Financial Group has shown consistent revenue growth with a strong increase seen in the latest fiscal year. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient cost management. While the net profit margin has improved, it remains moderate, suggesting room for enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect stable operational performance, although there is potential for further margin expansion.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio remains high, typical for the banking sector, but manageable given the strong equity base. Return on Equity is robust, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced approach between equity and debt in financing assets, which contributes to financial stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash flow, primarily due to fluctuations in operating cash flow. There is a negative trend in free cash flow growth, suggesting potential pressures in liquidity management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio highlights a reasonable level of cash flow generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.63T8.76T3.12T2.72T2.71T2.63T
Gross Profit4.93T3.78T3.19T2.72T2.71T2.63T
EBITDA1.25T1.40T1.03T945.90B769.51B819.14B
Net Income892.05B885.43B678.99B555.53B530.48B471.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>86.46T70.60T92.46T
Total Debt59.26T60.89T58.95T45.34T40.96T40.31T
Total Liabilities10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Stockholders Equity10.50T10.44T10.23T9.13T9.08T9.26T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-4.17T1.63T8.68T4.78T16.40T
Operating Cash Flow0.00-3.82T1.88T8.87T4.92T16.61T
Investing Cash Flow0.003.79T1.98T6.61T-1.86T-9.76T
Financing Cash Flow0.00-299.03B1.95T-611.14B-522.06B40.82B

Mizuho Financial Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3974.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3778.64
Positive
100DMA
3901.99
Positive
200DMA
3657.16
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
40.03
Positive
RSI
54.77
Neutral
STOCH
67.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8411, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3974 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3960.20, above the 50-day MA of 3778.64, and above the 200-day MA of 3657.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 40.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8411.

Mizuho Financial Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
¥9.97T11.358.45%3.27%7.33%30.52%
68
Neutral
€16.12B12.4914.11%5.29%7.09%0.17%
$21.52B15.267.67%0.01%
$7.41B13.816.37%0.02%
$19.05B12.068.20%3.37%
$27.33B11.783.78%0.02%
$38.16B14.214.38%3.80%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8411
Mizuho Financial Group
3,974.00
691.58
21.07%
RSNHF
Resona Holdings
9.22
2.71
41.63%
CCRDF
Concordia Financial Group
6.47
0.70
12.13%
CMTDF
Sumitomo Mitsui Holdings
28.45
6.34
28.67%
JPHLF
JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co
9.24
-0.44
-4.55%
JPSTF
Japan Post Bank Co
10.74
1.58
17.25%

Mizuho Financial Group Corporate Events

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Fiscal 2024 Financial Results
Jun 25, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group reported its consolidated financial results for fiscal 2024, showing a decrease in net income attributable to shareholders compared to the previous year. The company’s total assets increased slightly, indicating a stable financial condition, but the decline in net income may impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Advances Stock Repurchase Program
Jun 2, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group has announced the progress of its common stock repurchase program, which is being conducted in accordance with the Companies Act of Japan. As of May 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 4,351,500 shares at an aggregate price of ¥16,823,687,600, utilizing the market purchase trust method. This repurchase is part of a broader plan approved by the Board of Directors, allowing for the repurchase of up to 40,000,000 shares, with a maximum budget of ¥100,000,000,000, running from May 16 to August 31, 2025. This move is likely to impact the company’s stock value and shareholder returns, reflecting Mizuho’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Enhances Board Benefit Trust with Additional Contribution
May 21, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group has announced an additional cash contribution to its Board Benefit Trust for operating officers, aimed at acquiring company shares. This move is part of their ongoing stock compensation program, reflecting a commitment to align the interests of their executives with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Opposes Shareholder Proposals on Risk Audit Disclosure
May 15, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group’s Board of Directors has decided to oppose shareholder proposals at the upcoming Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. The proposals include amendments to the Articles of Incorporation related to financial risk audits. The Board argues that their existing comprehensive risk management framework and governance systems are sufficient to manage risks, including climate change impacts, without the need for additional disclosures in the Articles of Incorporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Announces Strategic Share Repurchase and Cancellation
May 15, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group announced a strategic move to repurchase and subsequently cancel up to 40 million shares of its common stock, representing 1.6% of its total outstanding shares, as part of its capital policy to balance capital adequacy, growth investment, and shareholder returns. This decision, which aligns with the company’s policy of increasing dividends and executing flexible share buybacks, is expected to enhance shareholder value and optimize the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Announces Increased Dividends for Fiscal 2024
May 15, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group has announced an increase in its year-end dividends for Fiscal 2024 to ¥75 per share, reflecting a ¥10 increase from previous estimates, and a total annual dividend increase to ¥140 per share. This decision aligns with their strategy to progressively increase dividends and execute flexible share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns and expand their stable earnings base. For Fiscal 2025, the company plans to continue this approach, estimating an annual dividend of ¥145 per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen4570.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Strong Financial Growth for Fiscal 2024
May 15, 2025

Mizuho Financial Group reported a significant increase in its financial performance for fiscal 2024, with ordinary income rising by 3.2% and profit attributable to owners of the parent increasing by 30.4%. This growth reflects the company’s strong operational capabilities and strategic positioning in the financial sector, indicating positive implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Hold with a Yen3250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 27, 2025