Mizuho Financial Group (8411) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥16.86T
• Dividend Yield: 2.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: -3.62%
• EPS Growth: 23.01%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 51,212
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 160.30
• Shares Outstanding: 2,489,848,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,504,100
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,804,276
• PEG Ratio: 0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥7,087.59
• Price Target Upside: 4.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥7,415.00 ▲(9.32% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth, healthy margins, and robust ROE), partially offset by weaker cash flow efficiency. Technicals show a strong uptrend but very overbought momentum increases near-term risk. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling, with only moderate support from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Model

Mizuho’s multi-line franchise (retail, corporate banking, investment banking, asset management and securities) provides multiple, stable revenue streams. This reduces reliance on any single market cycle and supports predictable fee and interest income over the medium term.

Robust ROE and Healthy Margins

Consistently strong ROE and healthy gross margins indicate efficient use of equity and effective cost control. These traits support sustainable profitability, give the bank capacity to absorb shocks, and underpin dividend and capital generation over the coming quarters.

Manageable Capital Structure

While leverage is elevated as expected for a bank, a strong equity base and a moderate equity ratio reduce solvency risk. This capital positioning supports regulatory buffers, ongoing lending capacity, and strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Flow Conversion

The bank shows difficulty turning net income into operating cash and exhibits negative free cash flow growth. Persistent weak cash conversion limits internal funding for investments, increases reliance on wholesale funding, and constrains balance sheet flexibility over months.

Negative Recent Revenue Trend

A negative revenue growth metric signals potential pressures in core lending or fee businesses. If this trend continues, it can erode earnings momentum, reduce retained earnings available for capital build-up, and weaken credit metrics over the medium term.

Moderate Net Profit Margin

Although margins have improved, a moderate net profit margin provides a thinner buffer against credit losses, rising funding costs, or margin compression. Limited margin headroom can restrict reinvestment and resilience in a stressed or higher-cost funding environment.

Mizuho Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Retail & Business Banking Company, Corporate & Institutional Company, Global Corporate Company, Global Markets Company, and Asset Management Company. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers financial solutions, such as bonds, mergers and acquisitions advisory, risk hedging products, etc. for corporate customers to meet their needs in fund-raising, investment management, and financial strategies; solutions based on their capital management, business strategy, and financial strategy; real estate agency services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on proposals on various investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers sales and trading services to meet needs for customers; investment products for individual customers; and consulting services for institutional investors. Additionally, the company provides products and services related to trust, securitization and structured finance, pension, and stock transfers; securities services; and research, private banking, and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mizuho Financial Group generates revenue primarily through interest income from its banking operations, which include lending to individuals and businesses. This constitutes a significant portion of their earnings. Additionally, the company earns fees from investment banking services, such as underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions. Revenue is also derived from trading activities in capital markets, asset management fees, and brokerage commissions. Significant partnerships with other financial institutions and corporations enhance its service offerings and contribute to revenue growth. The group's extensive global network further allows it to tap into various markets, increasing its earning potential.

Mizuho Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth, healthy gross margins, and robust ROE support a solid financial profile. Balance sheet leverage is high but typical for a bank and supported by a strong equity base. Cash flow quality is the main weakness, with challenges converting earnings to operating cash flow and negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Mizuho Financial Group has shown consistent revenue growth with a strong increase seen in the latest fiscal year. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient cost management. While the net profit margin has improved, it remains moderate, suggesting room for enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect stable operational performance, although there is potential for further margin expansion.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio remains high, typical for the banking sector, but manageable given the strong equity base. Return on Equity is robust, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced approach between equity and debt in financing assets, which contributes to financial stability.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash flow, primarily due to fluctuations in operating cash flow. There is a negative trend in free cash flow growth, suggesting potential pressures in liquidity management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio highlights a reasonable level of cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.33T	8.60T	7.86T	4.89T	2.84T	2.89T
Gross Profit	3.66T	3.59T	2.86T	2.58T	2.28T	2.26T
EBITDA	1.30T	1.40T	1.13T	945.90B	769.51B	819.14B
Net Income	1.01T	885.43B	678.99B	555.53B	530.48B	471.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.29T	10.00T>	10.00T>	86.46T	70.60T	92.46T
Total Debt	60.79T	60.89T	58.95T	45.34T	40.96T	40.31T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Stockholders Equity	11.00T	10.44T	10.23T	9.13T	9.08T	9.26T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-4.17T	326.33B	8.68T	4.78T	-1.57T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-3.82T	389.46B	8.87T	4.92T	-1.46T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	3.79T	-9.10T	6.61T	-1.86T	-50.54B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-299.03B	12.42T	-611.14B	-522.06B	8.57T

Mizuho Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6783.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8411, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6783 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6512.80, above the 50-day MA of 5964.22, and above the 200-day MA of 4729.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 230.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8411.

Mizuho Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8309	72 Outperform	¥3.60T	11.93	9.00%	3.31%	16.24%	78.76%
8308	72 Outperform	$4.12T	15.09	8.37%	1.80%	8.28%	28.63%
8411	71 Outperform	¥16.86T	16.58	9.14%	2.38%	-3.62%	23.01%
7186	69 Neutral	¥1.60T	17.02	6.87%	2.54%	19.38%	29.95%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
7182	67 Neutral	¥9.80T	22.23	4.49%	2.73%	2.17%	9.55%
6178	61 Neutral	¥5.51T	14.78	3.72%	3.03%	-1.36%	38.26%

Mizuho Financial Group Corporate Events

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Progress on ¥200 Billion Share Buyback Program

Mizuho Financial Group has disclosed the progress of its ongoing share repurchase program, conducted under Japan’s Companies Act and its own Articles of Incorporation. Between December 1 and December 31, 2025, the group bought back 9,434,900 shares of its common stock for a total of ¥53.45 billion through market purchases utilizing a trust method. This forms part of a broader board-authorized buyback plan, approved on November 14, 2025, allowing the repurchase of up to 60 million shares, or roughly 2.4% of shares outstanding (excluding treasury stock as of September 30, 2025), for up to ¥200 billion during the period from November 17, 2025 to February 28, 2026. As of December 31, 2025, Mizuho has repurchased a total of 15,329,000 shares for ¥84.49 billion under this authorization, signaling continued capital management aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and potentially improving capital efficiency and earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Advances Stock Repurchase Plan

Mizuho Financial Group has announced the progress of its common stock repurchase, acquiring 5,894,100 shares for approximately ¥31 billion between November 17 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan authorized by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 60 million shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Announces Share Repurchase and Cancellation Plan

Mizuho Financial Group announced its decision to repurchase and subsequently cancel up to 60 million of its common stock shares, representing 2.4% of its total outstanding shares, as part of its capital policy. This move aims to optimize shareholder returns and reflects the company’s strategy to maintain a progressive increase in dividends while executing flexible share buybacks based on business results and growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Results and Revises Earnings Outlook

Mizuho Financial Group reported its consolidated financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, showing a decrease in ordinary income by 5.4% compared to the previous year, but an increase in profits attributable to owners of the parent by 21.8%. The company also revised its earnings estimates for fiscal 2025, projecting a 27.6% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting a positive outlook despite the drop in ordinary income.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.