Mizuho Financial Group (8411) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥16.93T
• Dividend Yield: 2.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: -3.62%
• EPS Growth: 23.01%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 51,212
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 133.01
• Shares Outstanding: 2,489,848,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,504,100
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,804,276
• PEG Ratio: 0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥7,631.09
• Price Target Upside: 6.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 480.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.14T

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥8,468.00 ▲(18.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/15/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth, healthy margins, and robust ROE), partially offset by weaker cash flow efficiency. Technicals show a strong uptrend but very overbought momentum increases near-term risk. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling, with only moderate support from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified business model

Mizuho’s multi-vertical structure — commercial and corporate banking, trust/asset services, and securities — provides durable revenue diversification. That mix reduces reliance on any single cycle, supports cross-selling, and underpins stable fee and interest income over a multi-month horizon.

Strong profitability and margins

Reported robust ROE and healthy gross margins indicate efficient use of capital and consistent core profitability. These traits support sustainable earnings generation, allow reinvestment in business lines, and help absorb periodic credit or market shocks over the medium term.

Equity base supports leverage

Although leverage is elevated as typical for banks, a strong equity base improves loss-absorption capacity and regulatory resilience. That structural capital strength supports lending capacity and strategic initiatives without immediate capital-raising, aiding stability over coming months.

Negative Factors

Weak cash flow conversion

Persistent difficulty turning accounting earnings into operating cash and negative free cash flow growth constrains internal funding, limits flexibility for investments or buybacks, and increases reliance on external funding, raising structural liquidity risk over a multi-month horizon.

Recent revenue contraction

A material decline in reported revenue suggests pressure in core client activity or market-driven income streams. Sustained top-line weakness can compress margins, reduce scale benefits, and hinder capital accumulation, making medium-term earnings recovery more challenging.

High leverage increases cyclical exposure

High balance-sheet leverage, while common for banks, raises sensitivity to credit losses, funding stress, and rate swings. In an adverse cycle, leverage can amplify capital volatility and force more conservative lending or capital measures, impacting growth and returns over several months.

Mizuho Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Retail & Business Banking Company, Corporate & Institutional Company, Global Corporate Company, Global Markets Company, and Asset Management Company. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers financial solutions, such as bonds, mergers and acquisitions advisory, risk hedging products, etc. for corporate customers to meet their needs in fund-raising, investment management, and financial strategies; solutions based on their capital management, business strategy, and financial strategy; real estate agency services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on proposals on various investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers sales and trading services to meet needs for customers; investment products for individual customers; and consulting services for institutional investors. Additionally, the company provides products and services related to trust, securitization and structured finance, pension, and stock transfers; securities services; and research, private banking, and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mizuho Financial Group generates revenue primarily through interest income from its banking operations, which include lending to individuals and businesses. This constitutes a significant portion of their earnings. Additionally, the company earns fees from investment banking services, such as underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions. Revenue is also derived from trading activities in capital markets, asset management fees, and brokerage commissions. Significant partnerships with other financial institutions and corporations enhance its service offerings and contribute to revenue growth. The group's extensive global network further allows it to tap into various markets, increasing its earning potential.

Mizuho Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth, healthy gross margins, and robust ROE support a solid financial profile. Balance sheet leverage is high but typical for a bank and supported by a strong equity base. Cash flow quality is the main weakness, with challenges converting earnings to operating cash flow and negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Mizuho Financial Group has shown consistent revenue growth with a strong increase seen in the latest fiscal year. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient cost management. While the net profit margin has improved, it remains moderate, suggesting room for enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect stable operational performance, although there is potential for further margin expansion.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio remains high, typical for the banking sector, but manageable given the strong equity base. Return on Equity is robust, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced approach between equity and debt in financing assets, which contributes to financial stability.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash flow, primarily due to fluctuations in operating cash flow. There is a negative trend in free cash flow growth, suggesting potential pressures in liquidity management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio highlights a reasonable level of cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.33T	8.60T	7.86T	4.89T	2.84T	2.89T
Gross Profit	3.66T	3.59T	2.86T	2.58T	2.28T	2.26T
EBITDA	1.30T	1.40T	1.13T	945.90B	769.51B	819.14B
Net Income	1.01T	885.43B	678.99B	555.53B	530.48B	471.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.29T	10.00T>	10.00T>	86.46T	70.60T	92.46T
Total Debt	60.79T	60.89T	58.95T	45.34T	40.96T	40.31T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Stockholders Equity	11.00T	10.44T	10.23T	9.13T	9.08T	9.26T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-4.17T	326.33B	8.68T	4.78T	-1.57T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-3.82T	389.46B	8.87T	4.92T	-1.46T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	3.79T	-9.10T	6.61T	-1.86T	-50.54B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-299.03B	12.42T	-611.14B	-522.06B	8.57T

Mizuho Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7151.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8411, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7151 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7232.30, above the 50-day MA of 6637.78, and above the 200-day MA of 5110.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 87.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8411.

Mizuho Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8309	71 Outperform	¥3.74T	12.97	9.00%	3.31%	16.24%	78.76%
8411	71 Outperform	¥16.93T	16.98	9.14%	2.38%	-3.62%	23.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8308	63 Neutral	¥4.25T	16.39	8.37%	1.80%	8.28%	28.63%
7182	63 Neutral	¥10.46T	22.67	4.49%	2.73%	2.17%	9.55%
6178	61 Neutral	¥5.87T	16.45	3.72%	3.03%	-1.36%	38.26%
8304	54 Neutral	¥377.34B	14.97	4.74%	3.38%	5.47%	―

Mizuho Financial Group Corporate Events

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Progress on ¥200 Billion Share Buyback Program

Mizuho Financial Group has reported the latest progress in its ongoing share buyback program, repurchasing 9,161,100 shares of its common stock for approximately ¥59.6 billion between January 1 and January 31, 2026 via market purchases using a trust method. This brings total repurchases under the current board-approved program, which runs from November 17, 2025 to February 28, 2026, to 24,490,100 shares for about ¥144.0 billion, out of an authorized maximum of 60 million shares and ¥200 billion, signaling continued execution of capital management measures that may support shareholder returns and optimize the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Hold with a Yen6706.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Expands and Extends Share Buyback, Lifts Cap to ¥300 Billion

Mizuho Financial Group has amended its previously announced share repurchase and cancellation program, opting to expand the size and duration of the buyback in line with its capital policy of balancing capital adequacy, growth investment, and enhanced shareholder returns. The board approved an increase in the maximum repurchase volume from 60 million to 65 million shares and raised the total repurchase cap from ¥200 billion to ¥300 billion, while extending the buyback period to March 31, 2026 and postponing the planned cancellation date of the repurchased shares to April 22, 2026, reinforcing its commitment to progressive dividends and flexible, intermittent share buybacks guided by a total payout ratio of at least 50%.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Hold with a Yen6706.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Lifts Profit and Dividend Outlook Despite Revenue Dip in Third Quarter FY2025

For the nine months ended 31 December 2025, Mizuho Financial Group reported a 6.5% year-on-year decline in ordinary income to ¥6.61 trillion, but ordinary profits rose 11.3% to ¥1.25 trillion and profit attributable to owners of the parent increased 19.2% to ¥1.02 trillion, lifting earnings per share to ¥409.21. Total assets expanded to ¥297.57 trillion and total net assets to ¥11.26 trillion, with a slightly improved own capital ratio of 3.7%, while the group maintained its full-year profit forecast of ¥1.13 trillion (up 27.6% year-on-year) and plans to raise the annual dividend on common stock to ¥145 per share, signaling continued capital strength and a shareholder-friendly stance despite softer top-line revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Hold with a Yen6706.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Reports Progress on ¥200 Billion Share Buyback Program

Mizuho Financial Group has disclosed the progress of its ongoing share repurchase program, conducted under Japan’s Companies Act and its own Articles of Incorporation. Between December 1 and December 31, 2025, the group bought back 9,434,900 shares of its common stock for a total of ¥53.45 billion through market purchases utilizing a trust method. This forms part of a broader board-authorized buyback plan, approved on November 14, 2025, allowing the repurchase of up to 60 million shares, or roughly 2.4% of shares outstanding (excluding treasury stock as of September 30, 2025), for up to ¥200 billion during the period from November 17, 2025 to February 28, 2026. As of December 31, 2025, Mizuho has repurchased a total of 15,329,000 shares for ¥84.49 billion under this authorization, signaling continued capital management aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and potentially improving capital efficiency and earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Advances Stock Repurchase Plan

Mizuho Financial Group has announced the progress of its common stock repurchase, acquiring 5,894,100 shares for approximately ¥31 billion between November 17 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan authorized by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 60 million shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8411) stock is a Buy with a Yen5230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial Group stock, see the JP:8411 Stock Forecast page.