JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co (6178) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.63T
• Dividend Yield: 3.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -1.36%
• EPS Growth: 38.26%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 221,387
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 25.25
• Shares Outstanding: 2,972,934,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,362,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,592,956
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,898.00 ▲(32.82% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative operating cash flow and free cash flow) and mixed operating trends (recent revenue declines and inconsistent margins), despite a relatively strong balance sheet. Technicals show strong uptrend conditions, but overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk. Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

A high equity ratio and low leverage provide a durable financial foundation, giving the group capacity to absorb shocks, fund restructuring or strategic investments, and support regulated banking/insurance operations without excessive refinancing risk.

Diversified business model & distribution

Owning mail/logistics, a large deposit-taking bank, and life insurance creates diversified cash flows and cross-selling opportunities. The extensive post office network is a long-lived distribution asset that supports sustained retail reach and customer acquisition across segments.

Improving margins via cost efficiencies

Margin gains from cost efficiencies signal management can extract operating leverage and improve profitability structurally. If maintained, these efficiencies enhance free cash flow potential and competitive flexibility even amid revenue pressure.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines the firm's ability to fund capital needs, pay dividends, or invest in logistics and digitalization without relying on financing or asset sales, creating a medium-term strategic constraint.

Revenue declines and volatility

Recent negative revenue growth reflects secular pressure on mail volumes and inconsistent performance across segments. Sustained top-line weakness makes long-term margin and earnings expansion harder, increasing dependence on cost cuts and financial engineering.

Eroding shareholders' equity

A downward trend in equity reduces the capital buffer needed for banking and insurance risks, constrains leverage capacity, and may signal cumulative losses or payouts exceeding retained earnings, elevating regulatory and financial flexibility risks long term.

JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. is a diversified conglomerate based in Tokyo, Japan, operating primarily in the postal, banking, and insurance sectors. The company is structured into several business divisions, including Japan Post Co., Ltd., which handles postal and logistics services; Japan Post Bank Co., Ltd., which offers banking and financial services; and Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd., which provides life insurance products. As a key player in Japan's financial and logistics sectors, Japan Post Holdings Co. serves a wide range of individual and corporate clients, leveraging an extensive network of post offices throughout the country.

How the Company Makes Money

Japan Post Holdings Co. generates revenue through its diverse operations across its main business segments. The postal and logistics segment earns income by delivering mail and parcels, providing logistics services, and managing post office operations. The banking segment, through Japan Post Bank Co., Ltd., derives revenue from interest income on loans and securities, fees from financial services, and commissions. The insurance segment, operated by Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd., makes money by collecting premiums from policyholders and investing in financial instruments. The company's earnings are significantly supported by its extensive network of post offices, which serve as distribution channels for its banking and insurance products, and by strategic partnerships with other financial institutions to expand its service offerings.

JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed financial performance with profitability improvements and strong balance sheet, but challenges include declining revenues and persistent negative cash flows.

Income Statement

The income statement shows fluctuating revenue figures with recent declines. In 2025, the net profit margin improved due to cost efficiencies, but revenue growth has been negative from 2024 to 2025. The EBIT margin has been inconsistent, reflecting challenges in operational efficiency. Despite recent improvements, the overall trajectory suggests cautious optimism with room for growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a high equity ratio, indicating strong financial foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, showcasing prudent financial leverage. However, the declining stockholders' equity over the years signals potential long-term sustainability concerns. Overall, the company's financial position remains robust with manageable risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with consistent negative free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow has been negative in recent years, raising red flags about the company's ability to generate cash from operations. The cash flow from financing activities has been relatively stable, providing some relief.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.56T	11.47T	11.98T	11.14T	11.26T	11.72T
Gross Profit	11.56T	11.47T	11.98T	11.14T	11.26T	11.72T
EBITDA	792.44B	1.02T	0.00	923.84B	1.10T	980.98B
Net Income	363.56B	370.56B	268.69B	431.05B	501.69B	418.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	67.12T	59.51T	70.24T	68.50T	62.72T
Total Debt	33.77T	3.42T	33.06T	2.13T	6.24T	4.53T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Stockholders Equity	9.20T	9.09T	10.27T	10.08T	12.31T	13.79T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.58T	-9.53T	-3.70T	1.52T	7.86T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-1.37T	-9.33T	-3.47T	1.66T	8.04T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	4.38T	-8.53T	9.72T	1.66T	2.40T
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	3.31T	5.90T	-4.14T	3.96T	-633.41B

JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1429.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6178, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1429 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1712.73, below the 50-day MA of 1592.39, and below the 200-day MA of 1440.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 73.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.34 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6178.

JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8309	72 Outperform	¥3.62T	12.35	9.00%	3.31%	16.24%	78.76%
8308	72 Outperform	¥4.10T	16.87	8.37%	1.80%	8.28%	28.63%
8411	71 Outperform	¥16.82T	16.81	9.14%	2.38%	-3.62%	23.01%
7186	69 Neutral	¥1.63T	17.41	6.87%	2.54%	19.38%	29.95%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
7182	67 Neutral	¥9.07T	21.10	4.49%	2.73%	2.17%	9.55%
6178	61 Neutral	¥5.63T	15.23	3.72%	3.03%	-1.36%	38.26%

JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co Corporate Events

Japan Post Holdings Advances Large-Scale Share Buyback Program

Japan Post Holdings has reported progress on its share buyback program, disclosing that it acquired 6,432,100 shares of its common stock for approximately 10.25 billion yen via auction trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025. This forms part of a larger board-approved repurchase framework, under which the company may buy back up to 250 million shares or 250 billion yen of stock by March 31, 2026; as of December 31, 2025, cumulative repurchases have reached 148,207,600 shares for about 218.86 billion yen, signaling an aggressive capital return policy that is likely to support shareholder value and improve capital efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1898.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Trims Japan Post Bank Stake via ¥15 Billion Share Sale

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. has sold 7,058,800 shares of its consolidated subsidiary Japan Post Bank Co., Ltd. for approximately ¥15.0 billion through an off-auction own share repurchase transaction (ToSTNeT-3) conducted by Japan Post Bank. The transaction, completed on 24 December 2025, slightly reduces Japan Post Holdings’ stake in Japan Post Bank from 49.90% to 49.80% of voting rights but does not alter the bank’s status as a consolidated subsidiary, indicating a marginal portfolio adjustment rather than a strategic shift in group control or structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings to Sell ¥15 Billion Stake in Japan Post Bank as Part of Share Buyback

Japan Post Holdings has announced it will partially dispose of its stake in consolidated subsidiary Japan Post Bank by selling 7,058,800 shares, or about 0.2% of the bank’s outstanding common stock (excluding treasury shares), for approximately ¥14.99 billion on December 24, 2025, via participation in the bank’s off-auction share repurchase program (ToSTNeT-3). The sale is structured to correspond with Japan Post Bank’s broader share buyback of up to 23 million shares and is designed to keep Japan Post Holdings’ voting rights in the bank at roughly the current 49.9% level, while redeploying proceeds to enhance the corporate value of Japan Post Holdings and the wider Japan Post Group, without changing the subsidiary status of Japan Post Bank.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Acquires Treasury Stock to Enhance Shareholder Value

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of 16,748,900 shares of its treasury stock, amounting to approximately 24.27 billion yen, during November 2025. This move is part of a broader plan authorized by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 250 million shares by March 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Adjusts Stake in Insurance Subsidiary

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the conclusion of a sale and purchase agreement for a partial disposal of shares in its subsidiary, Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. The transaction involved the sale of 5,424,300 shares, amounting to approximately 22.5 billion yen, reducing the holding ratio of voting rights from 49.85% to 49.11%. This move does not change the subsidiary status of Japan Post Insurance, indicating a strategic financial adjustment rather than a shift in control.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Announces Strategic Share Disposal in Insurance Subsidiary

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced a partial disposal of shares in its subsidiary, Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd., as part of a strategic move to maintain its voting rights and improve capital efficiency. The disposal involves selling 5,424,300 shares, generating approximately 22.5 billion yen, which will be used to enhance the corporate value of the company and the Japan Post Group.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Revises Financial Forecast Amid Mixed Sector Performance

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. has revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, reflecting a slight increase in ordinary income but a decrease in net income. The revision is attributed to improved investment income in the life insurance segment and challenges in the postal and logistics segment, including administrative issues and slower parcel revenue growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Reports Stable Financial Growth Amid Strategic Adjustments

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a 3.1% increase in ordinary income and a 12.6% rise in net ordinary income for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to the previous year. The company’s net income attributable to shareholders also saw a slight increase of 2.2%. Despite a minor decline in total assets, the equity ratio improved slightly, indicating a stable financial position. The company maintained its dividend forecast, reflecting confidence in its financial stability. The forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, anticipates a slight decrease in ordinary income but a significant increase in net ordinary income, suggesting strategic adjustments to enhance profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Post Holdings Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of 22,759,800 shares of its treasury stock for 32,708,039,600 yen during October 2025. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 250,000,000 shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6178) stock is a Hold with a Yen1478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co stock, see the JP:6178 Stock Forecast page.