Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. (8338) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥42.09B
• Dividend Yield: 1.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 858.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: 8.45%
• EPS Growth: 168.74%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,335
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 24.99
• Shares Outstanding: 82,553,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 901,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 858,693
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥544.00 ▲(20.35% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—stable balance sheet and margins, but pressured by weak recent revenue trends, rising leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals are supportive due to strong trend strength, though overbought readings add near-term risk. Valuation is a positive, supported by a low P/E, with only modest support from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Regional franchise and client focus

A concentrated regional franchise creates durable competitive advantages: deep local relationships, stable retail deposit funding and preferential access to SME lending. These characteristics support predictable loan origination, cross-sell of services, and resilience through local economic cycles over months.

Stable equity base

A healthy equity ratio and stable capital base provide a lasting buffer against credit losses and regulatory shocks. This supports continued lending capacity, depositor confidence and strategic flexibility without immediate need for dilutive capital raises over the medium term.

Strong gross margins

Sustained strong gross margins point to structural cost control and profitable core lending or treasury economics. Margin durability helps absorb revenue volatility and supports long-term earnings sustainability even if top-line growth slows.

Negative Factors

Negative operating & free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows undermine internal funding for loans, dividends and capital expenditure. Over several quarters this can force reliance on wholesale funding or asset sales, raising liquidity and refinancing risk for a regional bank.

Rising leverage

An increasing debt-to-equity trend reduces financial flexibility and can compress capital ratios, limiting growth or requiring corrective capital actions. For a bank, higher leverage raises vulnerability to credit cycles and regulatory capital pressures over the medium term.

Volatile profitability & weak revenue

Recent revenue declines and uneven EBIT/EBITDA margins signal structural challenges in sustaining profitable growth. Over the medium term this volatility can erode return on equity, limit reserve-building capacity and strain shareholder returns if not reversed by stable loan growth or fee income.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. provides various banking products and services primarily in Ibaraki prefecture in Japan. It offers deposits and loans; insurance; and asset management and other services. It operates through a network of 149 branches in Japan. The company was formerly known as Ibaraki Mutual Bank, Ltd. and changed its name to Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. in 1989. Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Tsukuba, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsukuba Bank generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances, which constitutes its main revenue stream. The bank lends money to individuals and businesses, charging interest on these loans. Additionally, the bank earns fees from various services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and investment advisory services. The bank also generates income through its treasury operations, including trading in securities and foreign exchange. Partnerships with local businesses and government entities help to enhance its product offerings and attract more customers, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: a stable equity base and solid gross margins are offset by negative recent revenue growth, volatile profitability (EBIT/EBITDA), rising leverage, and weak cash generation with negative operating and free cash flow in the latest period.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline due to a drop in revenue. The revenue growth rate has been negative in the latest period, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown volatility, suggesting potential operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, although it has increased over time, indicating rising leverage. Return on equity is relatively low, suggesting limited profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a solid asset base supported by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals concerns with negative operating and free cash flows in the latest period, indicating cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash, but the negative growth in free cash flow is a red flag. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.52B	35.66B	36.26B	32.79B	32.46B	31.68B
Gross Profit	36.52B	33.80B	35.49B	31.97B	32.00B	31.04B
EBITDA	5.27B	6.61B	4.63B	4.09B	6.74B	4.27B
Net Income	4.45B	4.10B	2.19B	2.10B	4.23B	1.76B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.89T	2.89T	2.85T	2.77T	2.96T	2.70T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	307.35B	351.61B	334.87B	524.84B	357.13B
Total Debt	155.30B	143.30B	138.30B	128.30B	369.00B	158.00B
Total Liabilities	2.79T	2.80T	2.76T	2.68T	2.86T	2.59T
Stockholders Equity	98.14B	91.75B	97.14B	91.02B	104.10B	112.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-9.17B	11.82B	-263.47B	218.45B	172.86B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-8.80B	12.61B	-261.93B	220.00B	174.18B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-86.31B	18.44B	59.37B	-34.66B	-30.96B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	39.01B	-464.00M	-431.00M	-424.00M	151.61B

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 452.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8338, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 452 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 476.05, above the 50-day MA of 429.06, and above the 200-day MA of 309.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8338.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8558	78 Outperform	¥42.48B	6.49	―	2.87%	16.42%	119.62%
8551	75 Outperform	¥38.80B	11.08	―	3.28%	22.26%	-12.68%
8537	72 Outperform	¥22.38B	8.87	―	3.50%	16.60%	-5.51%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8338	66 Neutral	¥42.09B	7.07	―	1.20%	8.45%	168.74%
8364	64 Neutral	¥29.08B	13.29	―	2.59%	4.90%	―
8542	64 Neutral	¥18.50B	10.87	―	3.37%	3.70%	24.98%

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Corporate Events

Tsukuba Bank Reports Robust Financial Growth for H1 2025

Tsukuba Bank reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the six months ended September 30, 2025, with ordinary income rising by 17.9% and ordinary profit surging by 84.5% compared to the previous year. The bank’s strong results indicate a positive trajectory in its financial health, potentially enhancing its market position and providing value to its stakeholders.

Tsukuba Bank Revises Financial Forecasts Upward Amid Strong Performance

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. has revised its financial results forecast for the six months ended September 30, 2025, significantly increasing its expectations for ordinary profit and net income due to higher interest on loans and lower credit-related costs. The bank anticipates a year-on-year increase in ordinary income by over 10%, reflecting improved business performance and strategic financial management.