Saikaya Co., Ltd. (8254) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 50.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: -6.41%
• EPS Growth: 51.66%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 145
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): -1.42
• Shares Outstanding: 7,453,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 31,430
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 50,520
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -26.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥299.00 ▼(-19.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—especially high leverage and challenged cash flow—despite some recent margin improvement. Technical indicators are relatively balanced and provide mild support, but valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Recent margin improvement

Improving net profit and EBIT margins indicate management has been able to cut costs or raise gross margins; sustained margin recovery can structurally boost earnings power and cash generation even if revenue is flat, giving the company time to stabilise and reinvest.

Department-store retail footprint

A diversified merchandise mix and physical store network provide a stable, repeat-customer revenue base and cross-selling opportunities. That durable retail platform can support recovery initiatives and localised promotions, helping preserve sales resilience over months.

Improving return on equity

A rising ROE signals incremental improvements in capital efficiency and operational execution. If sustained, higher ROE supports better long-term cash conversion and reduces the incremental capital required to earn comparable returns, aiding strategic flexibility.

Negative Factors

Very high leverage

Extremely high leverage materially increases interest and refinancing risks and constrains strategic options. In a retail business with narrow margins, such indebtedness reduces resilience to revenue shocks and elevates default or restructuring risk over the medium term.

Multi-year revenue decline

Persistent top-line decline erodes scale advantages, supplier leverage and fixed-cost absorption in a store-based retail model. Even with margin fixes, shrinking revenues can make it hard to restore sustainable profitability and fund needed capex or store investments.

Negative free cash flow trend

Ongoing negative free cash flow limits the company's ability to pay down debt, invest in stores or omnichannel upgrades, and increases reliance on external financing. Combined with high leverage, weak cash conversion raises solvency and reinvestment concerns.

Saikaya Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saikaya Department Store Co.,Ltd. operates department stores in Japan. It is also involved in the wholesale of watches, jewelry, and precious metal products; and provision of building management services. The company was founded in 1872 and is based in Kawasaki, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Saikaya primarily generates revenue from retail sales to consumers across its stores (i.e., merchandise sales). Its earnings are driven by the volume of customer purchases and the gross margin earned on goods sold, net of store operating costs (such as staffing, rent, and logistics). null

Saikaya Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is pressured by very high leverage and weak cash generation. While profit margins have recently improved, multi-year revenue decline and negative free cash flow trends remain key risks.

Income Statement

Saikaya Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has seen a significant revenue decline over the years, with a notable drop from 2020 to 2025. However, there has been a positive turnaround in net profit margin and EBIT margin in recent years, indicating improved operational efficiency. Despite this, the overall revenue growth rate remains negative, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Saikaya Co., Ltd. reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio consistently above 10, indicating significant financial risk. The return on equity has improved recently but remains low, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is also low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if market conditions worsen.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows that Saikaya Co., Ltd. has struggled with negative free cash flow in recent years, although there has been some improvement. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation from operations is not strong, which could impact the company's ability to reinvest and grow. The free cash flow to net income ratio has been negative, highlighting challenges in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	Feb 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.63B	4.95B	5.20B	13.81B	15.00B
Gross Profit	2.05B	2.29B	3.12B	2.82B	3.01B
EBITDA	537.30M	445.66M	378.40M	194.00M	-333.81M
Net Income	110.25M	72.70M	9.74M	-509.68M	-846.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.00B	11.81B	12.24B	12.15B	11.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.43B	1.65B	1.78B	1.56B	861.79M
Total Debt	8.65B	8.66B	8.66B	8.67B	6.72B
Total Liabilities	11.20B	11.19B	11.66B	11.57B	10.81B
Stockholders Equity	791.99M	617.19M	576.34M	581.64M	405.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-89.29M	-48.88M	295.89M	-1.08B	-481.11M
Operating Cash Flow	410.25M	259.71M	367.11M	-872.27M	-452.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-620.35M	-390.97M	-135.26M	-952.85M	-99.98M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.31M	-3.88M	-3.87M	2.45B	732.30M

Saikaya Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 373.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8254, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 373 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 353.30, below the 50-day MA of 390.42, and below the 200-day MA of 424.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -22.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 18.85 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8254.

Saikaya Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9956	79 Outperform	¥193.59B	7.25	―	2.18%	6.30%	27.88%
8273	63 Neutral	¥216.74B	17.32	―	3.01%	18.89%	-34.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
8278	61 Neutral	¥174.15B	100.03	―	1.44%	1.48%	-33.32%
3222	53 Neutral	¥178.09B	-65.24	―	1.77%	30.67%	―
8254	46 Neutral	¥2.27B	-66.85	―	―	-6.41%	51.66%
8217	45 Neutral	¥33.05B	-145.82	―	3.11%	1.46%	-436.55%