Tamron Co., Ltd. (7740) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥175.48B
• Dividend Yield: 3.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 427.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -5.65%
• EPS Growth: -16.35%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 4,820
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 10.59
• Shares Outstanding: 170,800,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 383,470
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 427,340
• PEG Ratio: -0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 78.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥86.90B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,155.00 ▲(8.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial health (high margins and very low leverage), supported by a reasonable valuation and dividend yield. This is tempered by weak-to-neutral technical momentum and the notable 2025 revenue decline, which raises near-term growth uncertainty.

Positive Factors

High margins

Tamron’s sustained high gross margins and materially expanded EBIT and net margins over 2020–2025 indicate durable pricing power and manufacturing efficiency. Strong margins support cash generation and buffer profitability when volumes slip, underpinning long‑term operating resilience.

Conservative balance sheet

The company’s minimal leverage and steady equity growth provide substantial financial flexibility. Low debt materially reduces solvency and refinancing risk, enabling Tamron to fund capex, support OEM programs, or sustain distributions through cyclical downturns without relying on external financing.

Consistent positive free cash flow

Persistent positive free cash flow, with particularly strong FCF in 2024–2025, supports reinvestment, dividend capacity and strategic optionality. Even with some variability, the ability to generate cash annually reduces dependence on external funding and strengthens long‑term capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Sharp 2025 revenue decline

A roughly 31% revenue drop in 2025 materially weakens near-term top-line visibility and can erode operating leverage. Such a large decline may require multiple quarters to recover, pressuring margins, returns and strategic investments until demand normalizes or new programs ramp.

Revenue volatility / cyclicality

The pattern of a multi-year rebound followed by a sharp fall highlights structural demand cyclicality and reliance on uneven end markets or OEM program timing. Persistent volatility harms forecasting, capital budgeting and the predictability of earnings over the coming quarters.

Inconsistent cash conversion

Operating cash conversion and free cash flow growth have been inconsistent, with coverage ranging and FCF share of net income varying widely. This suggests working‑capital swings and timing risk that complicate sustained investment, dividend planning and stress testing under weaker revenue scenarios.

Tamron Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tamron Co., Ltd. (7740) is a Japanese manufacturer specializing in optical products, particularly known for its high-quality camera lenses. The company operates primarily in the imaging sector, providing a wide range of lenses for digital SLRs, mirrorless cameras, and other optical devices. In addition to camera lenses, Tamron also develops and sells industrial optics and optical components for various applications, contributing to its reputation as a leader in the optical industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Tamron generates revenue primarily through the sale of its optical products, particularly camera lenses, which are marketed to both amateur and professional photographers. The company earns income from retail sales as well as through partnerships with camera manufacturers, often supplying lenses for their camera kits. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of lenses, aftermarket products, and accessories. Tamron also benefits from collaborations with various photography and imaging companies, which can enhance their market reach and product offerings. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to innovate and expand its product line, ensuring a competitive edge in the optical market.

Tamron Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability with materially improved EBIT and net margins over 2020–2025, plus an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage. Offsetting factors include the sharp revenue decline in 2025 and somewhat inconsistent cash conversion/free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong, with consistently high gross margins (~38%–45%) and solid operating profitability (EBIT margin improving from ~6% in 2020 to ~19%–22% in 2023–2025). Net profit margins also expanded materially (about ~4% in 2020 to ~14%–16% in 2023–2025). The key weakness is growth volatility: revenue rebounded strongly in 2021–2024, but 2025 shows a sharp decline (about -31% year over year), raising questions around demand cyclicality and near-term earnings momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative: debt is minimal relative to equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~1%–5% across the period), providing substantial financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Equity has grown steadily alongside asset growth, and returns on equity are healthy (roughly ~10%–18% from 2021–2025, peaking in 2024). A mild watch item is that returns eased in 2025 versus 2024, consistent with the weaker revenue/profit backdrop.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid, with free cash flow positive every year and very strong free cash flow in 2024–2025. Cash conversion is decent but not consistently strong: operating cash flow has ranged from covering less than net income in some years to modestly above it (about ~0.70–1.06x), and free cash flow has been ~48%–77% of net income depending on the year. Free cash flow growth is also choppy (down in 2022–2023, then surging in 2024), indicating variability in working capital and/or investment timing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.34B	85.07B	88.47B	71.43B	63.45B	57.54B
Gross Profit	38.10B	37.42B	39.39B	31.66B	27.62B	23.21B
EBITDA	20.55B	20.05B	22.29B	17.00B	14.49B	10.43B
Net Income	13.37B	11.76B	14.53B	10.81B	8.35B	5.17B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	96.53B	106.05B	102.18B	87.06B	75.56B	67.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	33.16B	35.37B	38.38B	32.64B	29.95B	25.80B
Total Debt	1.57B	1.04B	2.22B	1.85B	1.91B	2.03B
Total Liabilities	17.73B	20.13B	19.85B	16.33B	14.98B	14.53B
Stockholders Equity	78.81B	85.91B	82.33B	70.73B	60.57B	52.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	10.73B	12.79B	4.83B	6.03B	6.64B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	15.10B	17.64B	10.03B	9.23B	8.66B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-7.34B	-6.73B	-5.14B	-3.87B	-3.78B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-11.13B	-6.02B	-2.78B	-2.04B	-1.25B

Tamron Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1063.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7740, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1063 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1030.15, above the 50-day MA of 1036.74, and above the 200-day MA of 966.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7740.

Tamron Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7839	79 Outperform	¥96.61B	15.79	―	3.29%	-9.58%	-14.06%
7740	75 Outperform	¥175.48B	14.47	―	3.47%	-5.65%	-16.35%
7951	67 Neutral	¥586.34B	28.46	3.68%	2.35%	-4.47%	-4.52%
7867	63 Neutral	¥257.66B	22.34	―	2.18%	10.50%	27.82%
7944	63 Neutral	¥105.25B	49.27	―	4.78%	-1.25%	9.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7731	48 Neutral	¥624.23B	-7.53	1.29%	2.88%	-3.24%	-65.77%

Tamron Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Tamron Unveils FY2025 Results and Upgraded ‘Value Creation 26 ver. 2.0’ Growth Plan

Tamron Co., Ltd. has presented its FY2025 financial results alongside an updated medium-term management plan and a renewed long-term vision, branded “Value Creation 26 ver. 2.0.” The disclosure outlines performance by key segments—photographic products, surveillance and FA lenses, and mobility and healthcare products—while setting out FY2026 forecasts and progress metrics for each business line. The company is sharpening its strategy with a reinforced financial policy covering capital allocation, technology-focused strategic investments, and initiatives aimed at cost of capital and share price, underpinned by ESG and sustainability priorities. Through these measures and planned investments toward becoming a “100-year company” in the 2030s, Tamron signals an intention to strengthen its competitive position in optics, enhance long-term shareholder value, and support sustainable growth across its diversified product portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7740) stock is a Hold with a Yen1109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamron Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7740 Stock Forecast page.

Tamron Revamps Board with Finance and Governance Experts Ahead of March 2026 AGM

Tamron Co., Ltd. has announced a broad reshuffle of its board of directors, to take effect following shareholder approval at the annual general meeting on March 27, 2026. Several current directors, including outside directors and full-time Audit & Supervisory Committee members, will retire, while four new directors are slated to join the board: Akira Okabe, currently Executive Officer and Assistant to the President, will become a director, and three seasoned financial and governance specialists — Hironari Nozaki, Kayoko Nishimura and Akira Yokota — are nominated as independent outside directors, with Nishimura serving as a full-time Audit & Supervisory Committee member and Yokota as an Audit & Supervisory Committee member. The incoming directors bring extensive backgrounds in global finance, equity research, banking, human resources and corporate management at major institutions, signaling Tamron’s intent to strengthen its governance, financial oversight and strategic capabilities as it navigates its competitive operating environment and addresses the expectations of shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7740) stock is a Hold with a Yen1109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamron Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7740 Stock Forecast page.

Tamron Sees FY2025 Profit Decline but Projects Earnings Recovery in FY2026

Tamron reported a 3.8% decline in FY2025 net sales to ¥85.1 billion, with operating income down 13.4% and profit attributable to owners of parent falling 19.0%, reflecting margin pressure despite a still-strong operating margin near 20%. While profitability and earnings per share weakened year on year, total assets and net assets increased modestly, the equity ratio remained high at 81.0%, and cash and cash equivalents stayed solid at ¥35.4 billion; the company maintained shareholder returns with total annual dividends roughly stable in yen terms after adjusting for stock splits, and it forecasts a recovery in FY2026 with net sales expected to rise 7.0% and profit attributable to owners of parent to grow 16.4%, signaling confidence in earnings momentum despite a soft first half outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7740) stock is a Hold with a Yen1109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamron Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7740 Stock Forecast page.