Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. (7347) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥13.97B
• Dividend Yield: 2.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 33.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 1.35%
• EPS Growth: -91.61%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 23
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 84.98
• Shares Outstanding: 21,549,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,580
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 33,323
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥810.00 ▼(-0.98% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial resilience (high profitability and very low leverage) and highly attractive valuation (very low P/E with a ~3% dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the company’s historically volatile cash flow and uneven multi-year performance.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low debt-to-equity (~0.04 in 2025) and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, enables opportunistic investing or support for portfolio companies, and sustains capital allocation optionality over the medium term.

High profitability rebound

A sharp profitability rebound (gross ~92%, net ~23%, operating margin ~36% in 2025) indicates strong operating economics and pricing power in core activities. Elevated margins enhance cash generation capacity and the ability to fund investments, dividends, or reserves sustainably.

Diversified income sources

A mix of realized investment gains, recurring management/advisory fees, and subsidiary revenues provides multiple cash levers. Recurring fees create a baseline of predictable revenue, while investment upside delivers episodic value creation, balancing stability with growth potential.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generation

Historic OCF and FCF volatility, with negative flows in 2020 and 2022 and weaker conversion 2021–2024, undermines predictability of internal funding. This raises execution and working-capital risks, complicating consistent capital returns or steady reinvestment plans.

Choppy revenue & returns

Significant year-to-year variability in revenue and returns suggests earnings are cyclical and market-sensitive rather than steadily compounding. This reduces earnings visibility, complicates multi-year planning, and can lead to volatile investor outcomes across business cycles.

Investment-performance sensitivity

Heavy reliance on realized investment gains and timing-dependent income makes earnings sensitive to asset valuations and exit markets. Performance dependency increases volatility of profits and cash returns, limiting predictability of long-term distributable cashflows.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the fund management business. It is also involved in the Spring real estate investment trust management and operation; investment advisory and management; and asset management activities. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mercuria Holdings primarily makes money through (1) investment-related gains and income—such as realized capital gains on the sale of equity stakes in portfolio companies/funds and, where applicable, dividend/interest income from invested assets; (2) recurring fee income—such as management/advisory fees for managing investment vehicles or providing management support to portfolio companies; and (3) other subsidiary business revenues that may be generated within group companies engaged in financial or investment-related services. Specific breakdowns of revenue by segment, named major partnerships, and the relative contribution of each stream are null.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying fundamentals: profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 with very high gross profitability (~92%) and solid net profitability (~23%), while the balance sheet remains conservatively positioned with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04). Offsetting this strength, revenue and returns show meaningful variability across years and cash flows have been historically volatile despite strong 2025 cash conversion.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: the latest year shows very high gross profitability (~92%) and solid bottom-line profitability (~23%), with operating profitability rebounding strongly versus 2024 (operating profitability ~36% vs ~18%). Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (+37.7%) after a flat-to-down 2024, but the multi-year pattern is choppy (including a decline in 2021), suggesting earnings can be cyclical/market-sensitive rather than steadily compounding.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04 in 2025, and effectively minimal in most years), supported by a large equity base. Returns on equity improved meaningfully in 2025 (~9.4%) after a weak 2024 (~2.9%), indicating profitability is capable of recovering without relying on leverage. Key watch-out is variability in returns year to year, which can weigh on valuation stability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025: operating cash flow (~¥2.94B) more than covered earnings (about 4.3x), and free cash flow was essentially in line with net income (~100%). However, cash flows have been volatile historically, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and 2022, and weaker cash conversion in 2021–2024, which introduces execution/working-capital or timing risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.24B	7.22B	5.57B	5.84B	4.60B	4.17B
Gross Profit	4.04B	6.66B	4.53B	4.03B	4.39B	3.64B
EBITDA	637.30M	2.64B	1.05B	1.58B	2.12B	1.82B
Net Income	68.58M	1.68B	505.72M	1.06B	1.56B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.12B	23.47B	21.05B	19.66B	19.98B	18.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.82B	5.23B	18.47B	16.70B	16.44B	15.28B
Total Debt	643.00M	684.50M	0.00	88.23M	843.50M	873.50M
Total Liabilities	2.07B	4.26B	2.16B	1.42B	2.44B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	15.97B	17.98B	17.51B	17.09B	16.63B	15.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	2.94B	653.00M	1.19B	-373.34M	145.34M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.94B	655.00M	1.24B	-349.43M	178.60M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-560.83M	-9.79M	497.85M	-583.05M	227.56M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	157.37M	-416.03M	-1.74B	-796.97M	1.35B

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 818.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7347, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 818 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 746.55, above the 50-day MA of 787.56, and above the 200-day MA of 801.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7347.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8739	78 Outperform	¥60.18B	10.05	17.21%	4.27%	7.60%	7.20%
7347	75 Outperform	¥13.97B	2.41	―	2.52%	1.35%	-91.61%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
9257	54 Neutral	¥17.03B	31.40	―	0.24%	―	―
2134	50 Neutral	¥16.43B	-12.65	―	―	-21.88%	17.12%
8518	46 Neutral	¥4.41B	-4.99	4.15%	―	-6.60%	―

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Mercuria Sets Improvement Plan After Falling Short of TSE Prime Free-Float Market Cap Rule

Mercuria Holdings has disclosed that its market capitalization of tradable shares fell slightly below the ¥10 billion threshold required to maintain its Prime Market listing as of December 31, 2025, triggering an improvement period through the end of 2026. The firm, which had once regained full compliance in 2024, now faces the risk of being designated for supervision or eventual delisting from the Prime Market if it cannot restore compliance, and may consider shifting to the Standard Market if market conditions make recovery unlikely.

To address the shortfall, Mercuria is continuing a multifaceted strategy that includes maximizing performance fees from buyout funds, expanding management fees via successor funds in buyout, aircraft, and venture strategies, and increasing principal investment income. The company is also intensifying IR and PR activities, investor engagement, and capital measures such as share buybacks and shareholder benefits, though it acknowledges that macroeconomic headwinds, weak Chinese real estate markets, and slower-than-expected institutional appetite for aircraft funds have made its medium-term profit targets difficult to achieve on the original schedule.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Buy with a Yen865.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Books Record FY2025 Profit on Buyout Fund Gains, Plans New Funds for 2026

Mercuria Holdings reported record-high results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, driven by performance fees and principal investment income from exits in Buyout Fund I, which has entered its performance fee stage and accumulated ¥2.9 billion in such fees. Operating gross profit rose to ¥6.74 billion, 149% of the previous fiscal year, while ordinary profit climbed to ¥2.55 billion, 221% of FY2024 levels.

Looking ahead, the company forecasts a reactionary decrease in earnings for FY2026, as the next large exit from Buyout Fund I is expected from the following fiscal year onward, but it plans to offset volatility by expanding its fund lineup and planning business. Mercuria aims to establish Aircraft Fund III with a target size of ¥50–75 billion and Buyout Fund III targeting ¥50 billion in FY2026, while strengthening group structures and monetizing new initiatives such as consulting services, the Kyushu Industrial Resilience Project, and the Century Heritage “Noren” Project.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Buy with a Yen865.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Delivers Strong 2025 Rebound but Signals Profit Drop for 2026

Mercuria Holdings reported a sharp earnings recovery for 2025, with operating revenue up 29.6% to ¥7.22 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent surging 233.1% to ¥1.69 billion, driving net income per share to ¥87.07. The company maintained its annual dividend at ¥22 per share, improved cash flows from operating activities, and kept a solid equity ratio despite an expansion of total assets.

Non-consolidated results showed an even stronger rebound, with operating revenue jumping 227.6% and the parent company swinging from a loss to a net profit of ¥1.92 billion, underscoring healthier core operations. However, Mercuria forecasts a substantial profit decline in 2026, with operating revenue expected to fall about 31% and net income about 41%, signaling a normalization after an exceptionally strong year and potential earnings volatility for investors to watch.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Buy with a Yen865.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Announces Shift in Major Shareholder to NGS Partners

Mercuria Holdings has announced a planned change in its major shareholders following a large share transaction dated February 24, 2026. Investment firm NGS Partners, Inc. will become a new major shareholder with 10.01% of Mercuria’s voting rights, while VARECS Partners Limited will effectively exit its major shareholder position, reducing its stake from 10.92% to almost zero.

The transaction qualifies as a “buying up” act equivalent to a tender offer under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act because it involves the acquisition of 5% or more of voting rights. Mercuria stated that the change is based on large shareholding reports filed with regulators and does not currently anticipate any notable impact on its business outlook, suggesting limited immediate operational consequences but a meaningful shift in its shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Enters Improvement Period After Falling Short of Prime Market Free-Float Cap

Mercuria Holdings has fallen slightly below the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market’s listing maintenance criterion for market capitalization of tradable shares, reporting ¥9.94 billion as of December 31, 2025 against the ¥10 billion threshold. While all other criteria such as shareholder count, tradable share volume, and liquidity are satisfied, the company has entered an improvement period running through December 31, 2026 to restore compliance and safeguard its Prime Market status.

The company plans to continue initiatives aimed at increasing the market capitalization of tradable shares after previously achieving compliance at the end of 2024 through similar measures. If Mercuria fails to meet the standard by the next assessment, its shares could be designated for supervision and ultimately face delisting from the Prime Market in July 2027, prompting management to also consider a potential shift to the Standard Market as a contingency to preserve a stock exchange listing.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Delivers Profit Surge in 2025 but Flags Sharp Slowdown for 2026

Mercuria Holdings reported strong consolidated results for 2025, with operating revenue up 29.6% to ¥7.2 billion and operating profit surging 157.9% to ¥2.5 billion, lifting profit attributable to owners of the parent by 233.1% to ¥1.7 billion. Profitability ratios improved sharply, cash and cash equivalents rose to ¥5.2 billion, and the company maintained a stable annual dividend of ¥22 per share despite a slight decline in the equity ratio.

Non-consolidated results showed an even sharper rebound, with operating revenue more than tripling and net profit turning positive after a prior-year loss, strengthening the parent company’s balance sheet. However, Mercuria’s 2026 forecast points to a significant pullback, with operating revenue expected to fall around 30% and profit dropping by roughly 40%, signaling a normalization after an exceptionally strong 2025 and potentially more subdued returns for shareholders in the coming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.