Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. (7347) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥15.11B
• Dividend Yield: 2.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 33.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: 1.35%
• EPS Growth: -91.61%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 23
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 84.98
• Shares Outstanding: 21,549,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,580
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 33,323
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥876.00 ▲(7.09% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial resilience (high profitability and very low leverage) and highly attractive valuation (very low P/E with a ~3% dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the company’s historically volatile cash flow and uneven multi-year performance.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage provides durable financial resilience: the company can absorb investment volatility, fund opportunistic deals or distributions without relying on debt, and maintain flexibility in downturns. This reduces solvency and refinancing risk over the medium term.

High profitability

Very strong margins signal a high-margin business model or profitable realized-investment outcomes, supporting sustainable earnings generation. Persistently elevated profitability enhances internal capital for reinvestment, dividends, and cushions earnings volatility when markets soften.

Improved cash generation (2025)

Material improvement in cash conversion in 2025 strengthens cash flexibility: operating cash well above earnings and FCF roughly matching net income supports distributions and new investments without external financing, increasing durability of capital allocation ability.

Negative Factors

Earnings/revenue volatility

The firm's revenue and returns are uneven across multi-year periods, reflecting reliance on episodic realized gains and market-sensitive income. This cyclical performance complicates forecasting, weakens predictable cash flows, and can hinder stable long-term revenue compounding.

Historical cash-flow swings

Past negative operating cash flow years and inconsistent conversion create execution and timing risk: during weaker cycles the company may face funding pressure, limit distributions, or defer investments, reducing the reliability of cash generation across business cycles.

Limited scale / concentration

A very small operating base and investment-centric revenue mix imply concentration of decision-making and client/product risk. Limited scale can constrain ability to diversify mandates, absorb large mandates, or replace key personnel, increasing business-model and execution vulnerability.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the fund management business. It is also involved in the Spring real estate investment trust management and operation; investment advisory and management; and asset management activities. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mercuria Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily derived from its real estate investments and management fees. The company earns rental income from its managed properties and capital gains from real estate transactions. Additionally, revenue is generated from its investments in renewable energy projects, which benefit from government subsidies and long-term power purchase agreements. The financial services sector provides further income through asset management fees, as Mercuria offers tailored investment products to clients. Strategic partnerships with other investment firms and technology providers also enhance its earning potential by diversifying its portfolio and leveraging new market opportunities.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying fundamentals: profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 with very high gross profitability (~92%) and solid net profitability (~23%), while the balance sheet remains conservatively positioned with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04). Offsetting this strength, revenue and returns show meaningful variability across years and cash flows have been historically volatile despite strong 2025 cash conversion.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: the latest year shows very high gross profitability (~92%) and solid bottom-line profitability (~23%), with operating profitability rebounding strongly versus 2024 (operating profitability ~36% vs ~18%). Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (+37.7%) after a flat-to-down 2024, but the multi-year pattern is choppy (including a decline in 2021), suggesting earnings can be cyclical/market-sensitive rather than steadily compounding.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04 in 2025, and effectively minimal in most years), supported by a large equity base. Returns on equity improved meaningfully in 2025 (~9.4%) after a weak 2024 (~2.9%), indicating profitability is capable of recovering without relying on leverage. Key watch-out is variability in returns year to year, which can weigh on valuation stability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025: operating cash flow (~¥2.94B) more than covered earnings (about 4.3x), and free cash flow was essentially in line with net income (~100%). However, cash flows have been volatile historically, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and 2022, and weaker cash conversion in 2021–2024, which introduces execution/working-capital or timing risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.24B	7.22B	5.57B	5.84B	4.60B	4.17B
Gross Profit	4.04B	6.66B	4.53B	4.03B	4.39B	3.64B
EBITDA	637.30M	2.64B	1.05B	1.58B	2.12B	1.82B
Net Income	68.58M	1.68B	505.72M	1.06B	1.56B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.12B	23.47B	21.05B	19.66B	19.98B	18.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.82B	5.23B	18.47B	16.70B	16.44B	15.28B
Total Debt	643.00M	684.50M	0.00	88.23M	843.50M	873.50M
Total Liabilities	2.07B	4.26B	2.16B	1.42B	2.44B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	15.97B	17.98B	17.51B	17.09B	16.63B	15.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	2.94B	653.00M	1.19B	-373.34M	145.34M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.94B	655.00M	1.24B	-349.43M	178.60M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-560.83M	-9.79M	497.85M	-583.05M	227.56M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	157.37M	-416.03M	-1.74B	-796.97M	1.35B

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 818.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7347, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 818 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 770.35, above the 50-day MA of 802.17, and above the 200-day MA of 801.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -18.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:7347.

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8737	76 Outperform	¥22.45B	3.91	―	5.27%	18.05%	34.17%
7347	75 Outperform	¥15.11B	2.41	―	2.52%	1.35%	-91.61%
3772	69 Neutral	¥20.75B	169.87	―	1.85%	-40.77%	-91.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
3454	63 Neutral	¥16.79B	3.76	―	2.86%	36.31%	52.62%
9257	51 Neutral	¥16.87B	31.40	―	0.24%	―	―
8783	44 Neutral	¥8.52B	0.65	―	―	-17.04%	46.36%

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Mercuria Holdings Announces Shift in Major Shareholder to NGS Partners

Mercuria Holdings has announced a planned change in its major shareholders following a large share transaction dated February 24, 2026. Investment firm NGS Partners, Inc. will become a new major shareholder with 10.01% of Mercuria’s voting rights, while VARECS Partners Limited will effectively exit its major shareholder position, reducing its stake from 10.92% to almost zero.

The transaction qualifies as a “buying up” act equivalent to a tender offer under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act because it involves the acquisition of 5% or more of voting rights. Mercuria stated that the change is based on large shareholding reports filed with regulators and does not currently anticipate any notable impact on its business outlook, suggesting limited immediate operational consequences but a meaningful shift in its shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Enters Improvement Period After Falling Short of Prime Market Free-Float Cap

Mercuria Holdings has fallen slightly below the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market’s listing maintenance criterion for market capitalization of tradable shares, reporting ¥9.94 billion as of December 31, 2025 against the ¥10 billion threshold. While all other criteria such as shareholder count, tradable share volume, and liquidity are satisfied, the company has entered an improvement period running through December 31, 2026 to restore compliance and safeguard its Prime Market status.

The company plans to continue initiatives aimed at increasing the market capitalization of tradable shares after previously achieving compliance at the end of 2024 through similar measures. If Mercuria fails to meet the standard by the next assessment, its shares could be designated for supervision and ultimately face delisting from the Prime Market in July 2027, prompting management to also consider a potential shift to the Standard Market as a contingency to preserve a stock exchange listing.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Delivers Profit Surge in 2025 but Flags Sharp Slowdown for 2026

Mercuria Holdings reported strong consolidated results for 2025, with operating revenue up 29.6% to ¥7.2 billion and operating profit surging 157.9% to ¥2.5 billion, lifting profit attributable to owners of the parent by 233.1% to ¥1.7 billion. Profitability ratios improved sharply, cash and cash equivalents rose to ¥5.2 billion, and the company maintained a stable annual dividend of ¥22 per share despite a slight decline in the equity ratio.

Non-consolidated results showed an even sharper rebound, with operating revenue more than tripling and net profit turning positive after a prior-year loss, strengthening the parent company’s balance sheet. However, Mercuria’s 2026 forecast points to a significant pullback, with operating revenue expected to fall around 30% and profit dropping by roughly 40%, signaling a normalization after an exceptionally strong 2025 and potentially more subdued returns for shareholders in the coming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Expects Record-High Profit Amid Strategic Adjustments

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. has revised its targets and expects to achieve a record-high full-year profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The company anticipates realizing performance fees and principal investment income from its Buyout Fund I in the fourth quarter, despite a low achievement rate in the third quarter due to unrealized performance fees and currency fluctuations. Additionally, Mercuria Holdings is working to meet the listing maintenance criteria for the TSE Prime Market by enhancing its disclosure practices to boost its stock price.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.

Mercuria Holdings Reports Decline but Expects Recovery by Year-End

Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in its financial performance for the first nine months of 2025, with operating revenue and profits showing a substantial year-on-year decrease. Despite the downturn, the company has revised its full-year forecast upwards, indicating expectations of a strong recovery by the end of the fiscal year, which may impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7347) stock is a Hold with a Yen886.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7347 Stock Forecast page.