AHC Group Inc (7083) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.58B
• Dividend Yield: 1.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1809.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 4.95%
• EPS Growth: -74.21%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 470
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): -13.19
• Shares Outstanding: 2,135,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,460
• PEG Ratio: -18.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: -20.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 94.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥7.29B

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥704.00 ▼(-19.36% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held down primarily by weaker financial quality—high and rising leverage, volatile profitability (sharp 2025 earnings compression), and inconsistent free cash flow—combined with a strong technical downtrend (below all major moving averages and very weak momentum). Valuation is mixed: a modest dividend yield helps, but a negative P/E reflects unstable earnings.

Positive Factors

Steady revenue growth

Consistent topline growth across multiple years indicates durable demand for the company’s healthcare-plan services. Steady revenue provides a foundation for margin recovery, reinvestment and debt servicing over the next 2–6 months, reducing execution risk versus cyclical peers.

Improved operating cash flow

Recent sustained positive operating cash flow shows the business can generate liquidity from core operations after prior volatility. This improves near-term funding for working capital and interest costs, supporting durability while the firm stabilizes free cash flow conversion.

Modest dividend support

A recurring dividend indicates management focus on returning cash and sustaining investor confidence. Even a modest yield signals policy discipline and can anchor capital allocation priorities, making cash returns a structural element of shareholder value over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverage

Elevated, increasing debt materially constrains financial flexibility and amplifies refinancing and interest-rate risk. With equity little changed, leverage raises the probability that margin pressure or cash-flow hiccups could force austerity measures or costly funding solutions within a multi-quarter horizon.

Volatile profitability

Large swings in earnings indicate operational sensitivity to costs, pricing or utilization. Such volatility undermines predictability of cash generation and makes planning for debt repayment, reinvestment, and dividends harder, increasing strategic and execution risk over the medium term.

Inconsistent free cash flow

Uneven free cash flow conversion signals the company may struggle to consistently turn earnings into usable cash. This pattern raises the risk that capital needs, debt service or dividend commitments will strain liquidity if operating performance slips again.

AHC Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AHC Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the welfare, nursing care, restaurant, and other businesses in Japan. Its welfare services include after-school day and child development, employment transition, employment continuation, community living assistance, planning consultation, counseling for children with disabilities, and living care. It provides nursing care services, including day care service; and operates Izakaya restaurants. In addition, the company processes and sells food products; offers management guidance and nursing care, welfare, and restaurant businesses; and operates in the back-office service and real estate businesses. AHC Group Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

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AHC Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is steady, but profitability is volatile (earnings compressed sharply in 2025 to near breakeven). Leverage is elevated and rising, with debt high versus equity, which limits flexibility. Cash flow is uneven, with free cash flow turning negative again in 2025 after a strong 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across the period, with positive growth in the most recent year (2025 annual). Profitability, however, has been volatile: the company swung from a large loss in 2022 to profits in 2023–2024, then saw earnings compress sharply in 2025 (net income near breakeven). Margins were stronger in 2020 and improved from 2022’s trough, but the latest year shows weaker operating performance versus 2024, suggesting sensitivity to costs and/or pricing pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and trending higher: total debt rose from ~¥2.0B (2020) to ~¥4.2B (2025), while equity has not grown meaningfully and is slightly lower than 2021. Debt relative to equity is consistently high (over 3x in 2022–2024), limiting financial flexibility. Assets have grown, but the balance sheet is carrying meaningful debt load for the level of profitability, increasing refinancing and earnings-risk if conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating cash flow improved materially in 2024 and remained positive in 2025, but free cash flow swung back to negative in 2025 after being solidly positive in 2024. Earlier years (2021–2023) show sizable negative free cash flow and, at times, negative operating cash flow, indicating uneven conversion of earnings into cash and/or heavy reinvestment needs. Overall, liquidity support from operations exists recently, but durability is not yet proven.

Breakdown	TTM	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.44B	6.66B	6.28B	5.92B	4.90B	4.11B
Gross Profit	678.02M	701.29M	678.45M	506.74M	243.31M	163.46M
EBITDA	210.93M	272.50M	270.82M	167.95M	-132.15M	-150.95M
Net Income	59.57M	1.02M	98.31M	67.86M	-253.89M	1.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.97B	6.09B	5.80B	5.25B	5.21B	4.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.44B	2.44B	2.42B	2.05B	2.06B	2.49B
Total Debt	4.02B	4.20B	3.90B	3.56B	3.56B	2.93B
Total Liabilities	4.75B	4.91B	4.60B	4.09B	4.12B	3.40B
Stockholders Equity	1.22B	1.18B	1.20B	1.16B	1.09B	1.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-88.27M	215.37M	-266.08M	-736.42M	-870.46M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	192.54M	439.48M	97.99M	-102.69M	-12.32M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-395.71M	-358.65M	-94.13M	-909.08M	-670.09M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	224.65M	290.88M	-15.08M	582.03M	879.48M

AHC Group Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 873.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7083, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 873 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 789.60, above the 50-day MA of 826.10, and below the 200-day MA of 881.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -22.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7083.

AHC Group Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9220	81 Outperform	¥2.91B	4.69	―	2.82%	4.82%	9.78%
2425	75 Outperform	¥2.98B	27.02	―	2.56%	-3.06%	-38.56%
9214	69 Neutral	¥2.05B	15.41	―	―	32.45%	58.25%
2373	60 Neutral	¥5.75B	23.20	―	4.07%	6.08%	38.00%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
7362	49 Neutral	¥1.26B	14.80	―	―	2.81%	-42.50%
7083	41 Neutral	¥1.58B	1,809.14	―	1.44%	4.95%	-74.21%