Modec (6269) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥979.77B
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: 10.13%
• EPS Growth: 25.50%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 5,962
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): 227.23
• Shares Outstanding: 68,345,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,347,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,737,503
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥15,923.00 ▲(5.66% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably revenue growth and profitability with manageable leverage), supported by a clear technical uptrend. The main constraints are negative operating/free cash flows and a valuation that looks only moderate with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Stable long-term contracts and day-rate model

Modec’s revenue model is anchored in multi-year FPSO leases and day rates plus maintenance services, producing predictable, contract-backed cash flows and long contract lifecycles. This stability supports project planning, recurring revenue visibility, and resilience versus spot-cycle volatility.

Exceptional recent revenue recovery and profitability

A dramatic TTM revenue rebound and positive margins indicate successful contract ramp-ups and utilization of assets. Sustained top-line expansion combined with positive net margins suggests improving project execution and pricing power that can underpin long-term earnings growth if new contract wins continue.

Manageable leverage and strong ROE

Low leverage and a 20%+ ROE indicate conservative financial structure and efficient capital deployment. This balance sheet strength preserves borrowing capacity for newbuilds or project financing and reduces refinancing risk, supporting strategic flexibility across the project lifecycle.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flows

Despite strong reported revenue and profits, negative operating and free cash flows reduce liquidity and increase reliance on external financing or asset sales to fund capital spending and working capital. Persisting cash deficits can constrain growth and elevate refinancing risk over months.

Margins show room for operational improvement

Moderate gross and net margins leave limited buffer against cost inflation on large offshore projects and compress profitability on new contracts. Improving operational efficiency and higher project margins are needed to sustainably convert revenue growth into stronger free cash generation and returns.

Concentration in FPSO/oil & gas project cycles

Heavy reliance on FPSO projects and major oil companies creates exposure to sector capital spending cycles and a small number of large contracts. Project timing, award concentration, and commodity-driven capex swings can cause multi-quarter revenue volatility and bidding pressure.

Modec Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modec (6269) is a leading provider of offshore production solutions, primarily focusing on the design, construction, and operation of floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units. The company operates within the oil and gas sector, delivering innovative and efficient solutions for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in deepwater environments. Modec's core services include project management, engineering, and the provision of floating production units that enable oil and gas companies to extract resources from offshore locations.

How the Company Makes Money

Modec generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts with oil and gas companies for the leasing and operation of its FPSO units. The company earns money from the day rates charged for the use of its production units, as well as from additional services such as maintenance and technical support. Key revenue streams include fixed contracts with established clients in the oil and gas industry, which provide stable income over several years. Modec also benefits from partnerships with major oil companies, which can lead to further opportunities for contracts and joint ventures in new projects. Additionally, the company may see revenue from project financing and construction services linked to the development of new FPSO units.

Modec Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modec demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and profitability. The company's balance sheet is stable, with a manageable level of debt and strong return on equity. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a potential risk that needs to be addressed to ensure long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Modec has shown a positive trajectory in revenue growth with a 3.7% increase in the TTM period. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 9.4% and a net profit margin of 5.0%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 5.2% suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 indicates a moderate level of leverage, which is manageable. The return on equity (ROE) of 20.4% is strong, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 28.5% suggests a balanced capital structure, though there is potential risk if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow growth rate has declined by 25.7% in the TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.27 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99 indicate that the company is generating sufficient cash relative to its net income, supporting its liquidity position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	191.66B	4.19B	3.57B	2.77B	3.90B	3.01B
Gross Profit	27.49B	392.81M	250.38M	69.01M	-225.53M	-93.07M
EBITDA	22.62B	207.69M	324.46M	-12.04M	-220.93M	-175.97M
Net Income	15.01B	220.40M	96.54M	37.38M	-363.98M	-126.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	665.74B	4.50B	3.89B	3.14B	3.43B	3.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	192.21B	1.31B	1.07B	529.91M	824.30M	641.09M
Total Debt	62.01B	514.43M	570.75M	393.38M	426.92M	3.14B
Total Liabilities	461.24B	3.30B	2.85B	2.30B	2.87B	2.55B
Stockholders Equity	197.69B	1.18B	992.82M	811.64M	532.54M	886.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-20.73B	548.61M	478.42M	-215.78M	122.88M	262.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-20.53B	560.89M	485.89M	-208.90M	152.24M	300.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.54B	-122.58M	-210.54M	-56.85M	-220.54M	-6.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.51B	-186.27M	241.15M	-49.01M	265.96M	-130.10M

Modec Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15070.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6269, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15070 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12328.87, above the 50-day MA of 12591.74, and above the 200-day MA of 7696.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 254.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6269.

Modec Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1662	80 Outperform	¥408.39B	4.91	16.04%	2.95%	4.14%	91.38%
1605	79 Outperform	¥3.62T	8.50	9.52%	2.91%	-11.79%	18.12%
5021	73 Outperform	¥705.35B	11.80	―	3.93%	2.57%	-4.79%
6269	72 Outperform	¥979.77B	22.49	24.31%	0.73%	10.13%	25.50%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
5020	64 Neutral	¥3.07T	14.17	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%
5019	63 Neutral	¥1.53T	37.40	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%

Modec Corporate Events

Modec Announces Upward Revisions to 2025 Earnings and Dividend Forecasts

Modec, Inc. has revised its earnings and dividend forecasts for the fiscal year ending December 2025, citing steady progress in EPCI projects and improved operating performance of existing vessels. The company anticipates an 18.9% increase in revenue and a 29.6% rise in profit attributable to owners, leading to a higher year-end dividend forecast, which will be submitted for approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6269) stock is a Buy with a Yen11200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modec stock, see the JP:6269 Stock Forecast page.

Modec Reports Strong Financial Growth and Upward Earnings Forecast for 2025

Modec, Inc. reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, with revenue rising by 11.9% and profit attributable to owners of the parent increasing by 43.6% compared to the previous year. The company also announced an upward revision in its earnings forecast for the full year 2025, indicating strong growth expectations and a positive outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6269) stock is a Buy with a Yen11200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modec stock, see the JP:6269 Stock Forecast page.