Modec (6269) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.02T
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: 10.13%
• EPS Growth: 25.50%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 5,962
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): 227.23
• Shares Outstanding: 68,345,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,347,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,737,503
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥15,762.00 ▲(4.59% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by strong revenue growth/profitability and an improving technical uptrend, but is held back by negative operating/free cash flow and a valuation that looks only moderately attractive given the low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Rapid Revenue Recovery & Profitability

A dramatic TTM revenue rebound alongside positive gross and net margins indicates successful contract wins and execution. Sustained top-line recovery and mid-single-digit net margins support durable earnings capacity for reinvestment and debt servicing if execution consistency continues.

Healthy Capital Structure & High ROE

Manageable leverage and a strong ROE imply efficient capital use in a capital-intensive FPSO business. Low D/E preserves financial flexibility for large project financing, reduces refinancing risk, and supports competitive bidding and long-term asset investments.

Long-Term Contractual Revenue Model

A business model built on multi-year leasing/day-rate contracts and recurring maintenance yields predictable cashflows and client stickiness. This structural revenue visibility reduces cyclical volatility and supports long-horizon planning and capital deployment.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Negative operating and free cash flow in a capital-heavy FPSO business threatens the firm's ability to fund capex, vessel maintenance, and working capital from operations. Persistent cash shortfalls raise dependence on external financing and heighten long-term liquidity risk.

Poor Cash Conversion

A near-1 FCF-to-net-income ratio coupled with negative FCF growth indicates accounting profits are not producing expanding cash. Weak cash conversion limits internal funding for new FPSO builds, increases refinancing needs, and constrains dividend or buyback capacity over time.

Subdued Operational Margins

Moderate gross and net margins in project-driven offshore services leave limited buffers for cost overruns and competitive pressure. Without efficiency or pricing improvements, margins could compress in downturns, reducing free cash and returns on large, long-dated FPSO investments.

Modec Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MODEC, Inc., a general contractor, engages in the engineering, procurement, construction, and installation of floating production systems worldwide. The company provides floating production storage and offloading vessels; floating storage and offloading vessels; floating LNGs; floating storage regasification water-desalination and power generation; tension leg platforms; production semi-submersibles; mooring systems; and other technologies. It also offers operation and maintenance services. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. MODEC, Inc. is a subsidiary of Mitsui E&S Holdings Co., Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

Modec generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts with oil and gas companies for the leasing and operation of its FPSO units. The company earns money from the day rates charged for the use of its production units, as well as from additional services such as maintenance and technical support. Key revenue streams include fixed contracts with established clients in the oil and gas industry, which provide stable income over several years. Modec also benefits from partnerships with major oil companies, which can lead to further opportunities for contracts and joint ventures in new projects. Additionally, the company may see revenue from project financing and construction services linked to the development of new FPSO units.

Modec Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income-statement performance (very high TTM revenue growth and solid net margin) and a stable balance sheet (manageable leverage and strong ROE) are tempered by weak cash flow, with negative operating and free cash flow creating liquidity and sustainability risk.

Income Statement

Modec's income statement shows a remarkable revenue growth rate of 4265.46% in the TTM, indicating a significant recovery and expansion. The gross profit margin of 14.34% and net profit margin of 7.83% reflect strong profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while positive, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity of 20.41% is strong, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 29.68% suggests a solid equity base, though there is potential to improve asset utilization.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99 indicates that cash generation is nearly aligned with net income, but the negative growth in free cash flow highlights potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.53B	4.19B	3.57B	2.77B	3.90B	3.01B
Gross Profit	470.52M	392.81M	250.38M	69.01M	-225.53M	-93.07M
EBITDA	291.70M	207.69M	324.46M	-12.04M	-220.93M	-175.97M
Net Income	293.72M	220.40M	96.54M	37.38M	-363.98M	-126.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.44B	4.50B	3.89B	3.14B	3.43B	3.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.28B	1.31B	1.07B	529.91M	824.30M	641.09M
Total Debt	413.32M	514.43M	570.75M	393.38M	426.92M	3.14B
Total Liabilities	3.07B	3.30B	2.85B	2.30B	2.87B	2.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.32B	1.18B	992.82M	811.64M	532.54M	886.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	771.77M	548.61M	478.42M	-215.78M	122.88M	262.40M
Operating Cash Flow	778.83M	560.89M	485.89M	-208.90M	152.24M	300.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-160.90M	-122.58M	-210.54M	-56.85M	-220.54M	-6.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.21B	-186.27M	241.15M	-49.01M	265.96M	-130.10M

Modec Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15070.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6269, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15070 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14432.50, above the 50-day MA of 13568.86, and above the 200-day MA of 8601.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 456.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6269.

Modec Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1662	84 Outperform	¥484.03B	5.56	16.04%	2.95%	4.14%	91.38%
1605	79 Outperform	¥4.12T	9.60	9.52%	2.91%	-11.79%	18.12%
5021	73 Outperform	¥757.21B	12.75	―	3.93%	2.57%	-4.79%
6269	72 Outperform	¥1.02T	23.43	24.31%	0.73%	10.13%	25.50%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
5020	64 Neutral	¥3.51T	15.85	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%
5019	63 Neutral	¥1.68T	41.13	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%

Modec Corporate Events

Modec Announces Upward Revisions to 2025 Earnings and Dividend Forecasts

Modec, Inc. has revised its earnings and dividend forecasts for the fiscal year ending December 2025, citing steady progress in EPCI projects and improved operating performance of existing vessels. The company anticipates an 18.9% increase in revenue and a 29.6% rise in profit attributable to owners, leading to a higher year-end dividend forecast, which will be submitted for approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6269) stock is a Buy with a Yen11200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modec stock, see the JP:6269 Stock Forecast page.

Modec Reports Strong Financial Growth and Upward Earnings Forecast for 2025

Modec, Inc. reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, with revenue rising by 11.9% and profit attributable to owners of the parent increasing by 43.6% compared to the previous year. The company also announced an upward revision in its earnings forecast for the full year 2025, indicating strong growth expectations and a positive outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6269) stock is a Buy with a Yen11200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modec stock, see the JP:6269 Stock Forecast page.