Idemitsu Kosan Co (5019) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.81T
• Dividend Yield: 3.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -7.68%
• EPS Growth: -73.03%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 13,991
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 13.47
• Shares Outstanding: 1,288,747,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,061,590
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,220,776
• PEG Ratio: -0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,461.67
• Price Target Upside: -1.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 71.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥8.01T

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,675.00 ▲(12.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (revenue growth and cash-flow strength). Technicals are supportive but overbought signals temper the outlook, and a high P/E weighs on valuation.

Positive Factors

Strong operating and free cash flow

Consistently strong operating cash flow and growing free cash flow provide durable internal funding for dividends, maintenance capex, and strategic investment. This reduces reliance on external financing, cushions cyclicality in oil margins, and supports balance-sheet flexibility over the next 2–6 months.

Diversified integrated business model

Vertical integration across refining, petrochemicals, lubricants and upstream/resource activities smooths cash flow volatility and preserves margin capture across the value chain. Diversified product lines and retail/wholesale channels support structural resilience to single-market shocks and sustain long-term revenue streams.

Sustained operating profitability

Positive and resilient EBIT/EBITDA margins indicate the core refining and materials operations can convert volumes into operating profit. That operational efficiency supports durable cash generation, funds reinvestment, and helps absorb feedstock cost swings over a multi-month horizon.

Negative Factors

Recent declines in top-line and EPS

Material negative year-on-year revenue and EPS declines point to near-term demand, mix, or margin pressures that can persist if structural drivers (feedstock spreads, domestic demand) remain weak. Reduced sales and earnings weaken internal funding and heighten sensitivity to commodity cycles.

Margin volatility and weaker net margin

Fluctuating gross and net profit margins reduce earnings visibility and free cash flow predictability. For refiners, sustained margin compression undermines the benefit of scale and integration, forcing tighter cost control or reduced investment if volatility persists over coming months.

Moderate leverage and substantial liabilities

A moderate debt load paired with sizable liabilities limits financial flexibility if operating cash flow weakens. In a capital-intensive industry, higher leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate risk, constraining the firm's ability to fund projects or buffer prolonged commodity-driven downturns.

Idemitsu Kosan Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. operates in petroleum, basic chemicals, functional materials, power and renewable energy, and resources businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Petroleum segment engages in the procurement of crude oil and refining of petroleum products; sale of gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, automotive lubricants, industrial kerosene, heavy oil, and aviation and marine fuel; and operation of hydrogen stations. Its Basic Chemicals segment manufactures and sells olefins, such as ethylene, propylene, and butadiene; aromatics, including benzene, styrene monomer, mixed xylene, and paraxylene; and other chemicals. The company's Functional Materials segment researches, develops, manufactures, and sells automotive, industrial, and marine lubricants, as well as grease; engineering plastic, adhesive materials, derivative products, and solvents; electronic materials, such as OLED; asphalt; microbial pesticides, soil amendments, and livestock related materials; and solid state lithium ion battery materials. Its Power and Renewable Energy segment operates thermal power plants; develops and operates renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and biomass power plants; engages in the supply, wholesale, and retail of electric power; researches, develops, and manufactures CIS thin-film solar modules; and sells solar power systems. The company's Resources segments explores, develops, and produces oil and gas; produces and sells coal and uranium; operates geothermal power plants; and sale of electric power and steam. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Idemitsu Kosan makes money mainly by converting crude oil and other feedstocks into refined products and selling them through wholesale and retail channels. A core revenue stream is its petroleum segment: it purchases crude oil, refines it into gasoline, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel, fuel oil, and related products, then earns margin based on the spread between input costs and market selling prices (influenced by refining utilization, product mix, and market crack spreads), plus logistics and distribution economics. It also generates revenue from selling lubricants and specialty oils where profitability is driven more by formulation/brand and customer relationships than by commodity spreads. In petrochemicals and materials, it sells chemical products derived from refinery and chemical operations; earnings depend on demand in downstream industries and the spread between feedstock costs and product prices. The company additionally earns from resource and power-related activities where applicable, including sales linked to exploration/production interests and other energy-related businesses; the contribution of each depends on commodity prices, volumes, and project performance. Overall, its earnings are shaped by global oil price movements (which affect both inventory valuation and product pricing), foreign exchange rates, domestic fuel demand, and regulatory/tax frameworks affecting fuel distribution and retail pricing.

Idemitsu Kosan Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by robust revenue growth and very solid operating/free cash flow generation. Offsetting factors include fluctuating profitability (net margin down most recently) and moderate leverage with declining ROE.

Income Statement

Idemitsu Kosan Co has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a compound increase in total revenue over recent years. However, gross and net profit margins have shown fluctuations, indicating variable profitability. The net profit margin has decreased in the latest year, reflecting potential challenges in cost management or market conditions. Despite this, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, which suggests a balanced approach to financing through debt and equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has decreased, reflecting pressure on profitability. The equity ratio has improved slightly, indicating a stable capital structure, though the overall liabilities remain substantial.

Cash Flow

Idemitsu Kosan Co's cash flow statements reveal strong operational cash flow performance, particularly in the latest year. Free cash flow has shown significant growth, suggesting effective management of capital expenditures and cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates healthy cash conversion, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.26T	9.19T	8.72T	9.46T	6.69T	4.56T
Gross Profit	613.73B	689.41B	847.12B	794.02B	884.18B	559.03B
EBITDA	179.60B	267.26B	454.88B	396.36B	548.73B	247.85B
Net Income	29.18B	104.05B	228.52B	253.65B	279.50B	34.92B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.26T	4.78T	5.01T	4.87T	4.60T	3.95T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	239.90B	165.76B	139.32B	105.19B	140.28B	131.34B
Total Debt	1.60T	1.24T	1.34T	1.50T	1.36T	1.31T
Total Liabilities	3.47T	3.04T	3.20T	3.24T	3.16T	2.74T
Stockholders Equity	1.76T	1.72T	1.80T	1.61T	1.41T	1.15T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	390.19B	306.53B	-118.41B	51.37B	49.40B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	476.74B	377.39B	-32.84B	146.11B	170.47B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-111.41B	-65.81B	74.81B	-105.60B	-95.81B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-350.56B	-280.51B	-95.15B	-36.03B	-70.27B

Idemitsu Kosan Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1491.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5019, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1491 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1444.20, above the 50-day MA of 1374.95, and above the 200-day MA of 1104.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 30.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5019.

Idemitsu Kosan Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8131	74 Outperform	¥125.28B	17.49	―	2.57%	7.46%	153.98%
5015	73 Outperform	¥22.52B	20.21	―	4.50%	13.76%	13.58%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.81T	21.95	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
8132	67 Neutral	¥71.65B	32.15	―	1.37%	-5.02%	186.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
8133	63 Neutral	¥218.65B	12.70	―	3.45%	-4.87%	26.27%
5020	56 Neutral	¥3.49T	11.54	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%

Idemitsu Kosan Co Corporate Events

Idemitsu Kosan Finalizes Accelerated Share Repurchase Adjustment, Lifting Total Buyback to 65.5 Million Shares

Idemitsu Kosan has completed the adjustment transaction for its previously announced accelerated share repurchase, determining that it acquired a final total of 65,529,800 shares, including shares obtained from parties other than Daiwa Securities. The transaction was structured around an average share price of ¥1,055.0211, a benchmark amount of approximately ¥59.8 billion, and resulted in an increase of 4,792,300 shares through a no-cost acquisition mechanism, underscoring the company’s ongoing commitment to capital efficiency and shareholder returns.

The adjustment was calculated using the simple average VWAP between March 21, 2025 and March 13, 2026, multiplied by 99.4%, tying the final share count to market conditions over the period. By finalizing these terms and executing the additional no-cost share acquisition from holders of stock acquisition rights, Idemitsu Kosan has clarified the ultimate scale of the buyback, which may support earnings per share and signal confidence in its valuation and long-term financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5019) stock is a Hold with a Yen1535.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Idemitsu Kosan Co stock, see the JP:5019 Stock Forecast page.

Idemitsu Kosan Delays New Medium-Term Plan Amid Middle East Tensions

Idemitsu Kosan has delayed the announcement of its next medium-term management plan, which was originally scheduled for March 17, 2026 and was to cover fiscal 2026 and beyond. The new plan will now be unveiled on May 12, 2026, aligned with the release of full-year results for fiscal 2025.

Management cited a rapidly deteriorating environment for crude oil prices and petroleum product supply, driven by the escalating situation in the Middle East. The company says it is prioritizing its social responsibility to maintain stable supplies of energy and materials, suggesting that near-term operational continuity and supply security are being put ahead of longer-term strategic disclosures.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5019) stock is a Hold with a Yen1535.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Idemitsu Kosan Co stock, see the JP:5019 Stock Forecast page.

Idemitsu Kosan Earnings Slide Sharply but Dividend and Forecasts Intact

Idemitsu Kosan reported a sharp deterioration in earnings for the nine months to December 31, 2025, with net sales down 13.6% to ¥5.94 trillion and operating income plunging 70.2% to ¥36.7 billion, while net income attributable to owners fell 58.7% to ¥52.6 billion. Despite weaker profitability and a lower equity ratio, the company maintained its full-year forecast for a significant year-on-year decline in revenue and profit and kept its dividend plan unchanged, while expanding its consolidation scope to include Fuji Oil Company, Ltd., signaling ongoing portfolio adjustments amid a challenging market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5019) stock is a Hold with a Yen1535.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Idemitsu Kosan Co stock, see the JP:5019 Stock Forecast page.

Idemitsu Kosan Releases Q3 FY2025 Results Presentation

Idemitsu Kosan has released its presentation on financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, outlining key topics such as overall highlights, segment performance, and operational metrics. The materials indicate a detailed review of income and expense structures in the petroleum segment, financial results, sales volumes, and crude and product price trends, providing stakeholders with insight into the company’s recent operating environment and segment-level performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5019) stock is a Hold with a Yen1535.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Idemitsu Kosan Co stock, see the JP:5019 Stock Forecast page.