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ENEOS Holdings (JP:5020)
:5020

ENEOS Holdings (5020) AI Stock Analysis

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ENEOS Holdings

(OTC:5020)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
¥790.00
▲(9.24%Upside)
ENEOS Holdings is rated with an overall score of 71, driven by its attractive valuation and stable technical indicators. Despite challenges in financial performance, particularly with revenue growth and cash flow volatility, the stock's low P/E ratio and solid dividend yield present it as a potentially undervalued investment opportunity. Improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow management would further enhance the stock's appeal.

ENEOS Holdings (5020) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

ENEOS Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionENEOS Holdings, Inc. is a leading Japanese energy company, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of petroleum and petrochemical products. It operates through various segments, including energy, oil and natural gas exploration and production, metals, and other relevant sectors. The company is renowned for its comprehensive supply chain in the energy industry, offering a wide range of products such as gasoline, kerosene, lubricants, and specialty chemicals, while also investing in renewable energy solutions to align with global sustainability trends.
How the Company Makes MoneyENEOS Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is its energy segment, where it earns money from the sale of refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to both retail and wholesale customers. Additionally, the company is involved in the upstream exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas, contributing to its revenue. ENEOS also makes money through its metals segment, which includes the production and sale of non-ferrous metals, with a particular focus on copper. The company's revenue is further supported by strategic partnerships and joint ventures aimed at enhancing its capabilities in renewable energy, such as solar and hydrogen power initiatives. Market conditions, crude oil prices, and global energy demand significantly influence the company's financial performance.

ENEOS Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q2-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong performance in the Energy segment and an upward revision of the operating income forecast, alongside improvements in cash flow and renewable energy profits. However, challenges remain in the oil and natural gas E&P and Metals segments, with expected declines in second-half net income.
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Energy Segment Profit Increase
The Energy segment saw a significant increase in profit, resulting in a group consolidated profit increase of JPY 152.5 billion. This was due to improved margins, including chemicals and improved selling prices in the electricity business.
Upward Revision of Operating Income Forecast
The operating income forecast for the full year was revised upward by JPY 80 billion to JPY 420 billion, with operating income excluding inventory valuation expected to rise by JPY 30 billion.
Improvement in UCL and Capacity Loss
UCL performance improved by 3% from the previous year, achieving an 8% UCL rate, and significant improvements were made in facility maintenance.
Profits in Renewable Energy
Profits in the renewable energy sector increased by JPY 7.3 billion due to an increase in power generation capacity and ForEx gains from asset sales.
Free Cash Flow Increase
Free cash flow was JPY 326.7 billion, with a net cash inflow of JPY 255.2 billion, reflecting a decrease in net interest-bearing debt by JPY 270.4 billion from the end of the previous year.
Negative Updates
Decline in Oil and Natural Gas E&P Business
Operating income for the oil and natural gas E&P business decreased by JPY 8.7 billion year-on-year due to a decline in resource prices.
Decrease in Metals Business Income
Operating income for the Metals business was JPY 72.1 billion, down JPY 8.9 billion from the previous year, largely due to decreased sales of semiconductor and ICT materials.
Expected Drop in Second Half Net Income
Net income for the second half is expected to drop to JPY 100.9 billion from JPY 269.1 billion in the first half due to a negative time lag and increased expenses like fixed asset taxes.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter earnings call for fiscal 2024, ENEOS Group executives reported several key metrics and guidance. Operating income decreased by JPY 103.3 billion to JPY 291.5 billion due to reduced inventory impact from crude oil price fluctuations. Despite this, the energy segment showed significant profit growth, contributing to a JPY 152.5 billion increase in consolidated group profits. Forecasts for the full year have been revised, with expected operating income of JPY 420 billion, up by JPY 80 billion, and operating income excluding inventory valuation projected at JPY 370 billion, an increase of JPY 30 billion. Net income is anticipated to reach JPY 200 billion, revised upward by JPY 20 billion. Additionally, the company highlighted progress in business process reengineering and energy transition efforts, aiming for improved returns on equity (ROE) and an enhanced management structure.

ENEOS Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ENEOS Holdings exhibits a mixed financial performance with strengths in gross profit margins and a stable balance sheet. However, challenges in revenue growth, declining net profit margins, and fluctuating cash flows pose risks. The company should focus on improving efficiency and stabilizing cash flows to enhance overall financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
ENEOS Holdings has shown fluctuating revenue with a decline in the latest year, which may indicate market volatility. The gross profit margin is strong, but the net profit margin has decreased, suggesting increased costs or decreased efficiency. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, highlighting challenges in maintaining operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio indicates a stable financial position with a solid proportion of assets financed by equity. Return on equity has experienced variability, showing potential for profitability but also indicating risks.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow from operations has been inconsistent, with a notable decrease in the latest year. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive but shows volatility. There is a need for improvement in cash flow management to ensure sustainable operations.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.32T13.86T15.02T10.92T7.66T
Gross Profit1.10T1.34T1.21T1.58T1.08T
EBITDA120.15B829.62B650.45B1.04T526.87B
Net Income226.07B288.12B143.77B537.12B114.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.79T10.14T9.95T9.65T8.06T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments846.56B775.91B414.04B668.47B468.25B
Total Debt2.68T3.27T3.56T3.22T2.54T
Total Liabilities5.32T6.43T6.67T6.41T5.31T
Stockholders Equity3.10T3.23T2.86T2.86T2.33T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow294.01B681.87B-428.98B-46.01B420.04B
Operating Cash Flow576.84B1.01T-110.25B209.51B679.09B
Investing Cash Flow131.54B-238.20B-115.93B-349.93B-306.79B
Financing Cash Flow-631.19B-331.03B-13.32B226.05B-355.08B

ENEOS Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price723.20
Price Trends
50DMA
700.32
Positive
100DMA
733.64
Negative
200DMA
757.28
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
5.15
Positive
RSI
55.56
Neutral
STOCH
73.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5020, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 723.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 720.24, above the 50-day MA of 700.32, and below the 200-day MA of 757.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5020.

ENEOS Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (72)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥118.24B13.50
5.41%-0.79%-19.95%
75
Outperform
¥198.67B11.61
3.86%-4.03%23.24%
72
Outperform
¥110.73B10.87
2.83%9.89%19.27%
72
Outperform
¥345.77B12.199.89%3.68%1.57%0.48%
71
Outperform
$1.95T9.04-0.17%3.60%-11.07%-15.69%
70
Outperform
$1.16T11.545.72%4.01%5.40%-53.39%
68
Neutral
¥69.30B21.98
1.41%-8.95%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:5020
ENEOS Holdings
723.20
-85.79
-10.60%
JP:8097
SAN-AI OBBLI CO. LTD
1,848.00
-167.38
-8.31%
JP:8131
Mitsuuroko Group Holdings Co., Ltd.
1,979.00
278.60
16.38%
JP:8132
SINANEN HOLDINGS CO.LTD.
6,430.00
1,844.04
40.21%
JP:8133
ITOCHU ENEX CO., LTD.
1,760.00
308.52
21.26%
JP:5019
Idemitsu Kosan Co
890.00
-101.95
-10.28%

ENEOS Holdings Corporate Events

ENEOS Holdings Corrects Financial Results for FY2024
Jun 24, 2025

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. announced a partial correction to its Consolidated Financial Results for the Fiscal Year 2024, initially released in May 2025. The correction involves reclassification of items in the cash flows from operating activities, but it does not impact the net cash flows or other financial statements, ensuring stakeholders that the overall financial health remains stable.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5020) stock is a Hold with a Yen740.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ENEOS Holdings stock, see the JP:5020 Stock Forecast page.

ENEOS Holdings Reports Fiscal Year 2024 Results and Optimistic 2025 Outlook
May 12, 2025

ENEOS Holdings reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year 2024, showing a slight decrease in revenue and significant drops in operating profit and profit before tax compared to the previous year. The company has classified its Metals Business as discontinued operations, impacting its financial figures. Despite these challenges, ENEOS plans to increase its dividend payout and forecasts a substantial recovery in operating profit for fiscal year 2025, indicating a strategic focus on improving profitability and shareholder returns.

ENEOS Holdings Revises Share Remuneration Plan to Align with New Business Strategy
May 12, 2025

ENEOS Holdings announced a continuation and partial revision of its share remuneration plan for directors and executive officers, aligning it with the company’s Fourth Medium-Term Management Plan for FY2025-2027. This revision aims to enhance corporate value and align interests with shareholders, involving new participating companies and requiring shareholder approval at upcoming general meetings.

ENEOS Holdings Exceeds Profit Forecasts Despite Revenue Decline
May 12, 2025

ENEOS Holdings announced a significant discrepancy between its forecasted and actual financial results for the fiscal year 2024. Despite a decline in revenue from its petroleum products business, the company’s operating profit and profit before tax exceeded expectations due to a lower-than-anticipated loss impact from inventory valuation. This unexpected financial performance highlights ENEOS Holdings’ resilience in managing inventory and cost valuations, potentially strengthening its position in the energy market.

ENEOS Holdings Unveils Fourth Medium-Term Management Plan
May 12, 2025

ENEOS Holdings has announced its Fourth Medium-Term Management Plan for FY2025-FY2027, aiming to enhance corporate value through a robust management structure and portfolio restructuring. The plan addresses uncertainties in the energy market by improving operational efficiency with AI, focusing on early earnings generation in the fuel oil business, and prioritizing investments in low-carbon technologies like LNG and biofuels. The company also emphasizes human capital management to foster leadership and align personnel with strategic goals. Financial targets include achieving a ROE of 10% and a ROIC of 6%, with a cumulative investment plan of ¥1,560.0 billion. Shareholder returns will be prioritized through stable dividends reflecting medium-term performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025