ENEOS Holdings (5020) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.02T
• Dividend Yield: 2.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -14.13%
• EPS Growth: 33.18%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43,683
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 23.97
• Shares Outstanding: 2,706,766,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,657,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,652,513
• PEG Ratio: -0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.24
• 1Y Price Target: $1,382.65
• Price Target Upside: -7.08% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 63.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.41T

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,520.00 ▲(2.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is led by strong bullish technicals (price well above key moving averages with positive MACD) and supportive current cash flow, offset by weak recent profitability (TTM net loss and margin compression) and only middling valuation for the level of earnings volatility.

Positive Factors

Integrated downstream & retail network

ENEOS’s integrated refining-to-retail model and nationwide service-station/distribution network create durable scale and customer reach. Vertical integration helps capture margin across the value chain, supports stable volumes in transport fuels and cross-selling of lubricants and services over multi-year cycles.

Strong recent cash generation

Trailing-twelve-month positive operating and free cash flow provide recurring internal funding for maintenance capex, low-risk investments and debt reduction. Sustained FCF supports operational resilience and strategic flexibility even during commodity price swings over the next 2–6 months.

Improving leverage and balance-sheet stability

Lower debt-to-equity versus recent years strengthens financial flexibility, reducing refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability. A more moderate leverage profile supports funding of transitions, capital projects and shareholder initiatives while improving resilience to industry cyclicality.

Negative Factors

TTM net loss and margin compression

The swing to a TTM net loss and materially compressed margins indicate weaker core profitability and reduced earnings resilience. Persistent weak net income undermines return metrics and limits retained earnings, constraining long-term reinvestment and dividend capacity if not reversed.

Declining revenue trend

A roughly 13% decline in revenue reflects soft demand or margin headwinds and erodes scale economics in refining, petrochemicals and lubricants. Continued top-line contraction will pressure operating leverage and the ability to restore margins and profitability over the medium term.

Earnings and cash-flow volatility

Historical swings in operating cash flow and profitability increase uncertainty around future free cash generation and capital allocation. This volatility complicates multi-year planning, raises the risk of earnings surprises, and may force conservative capital or payout policies.

ENEOS Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ENEOS Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, oil and natural gas exploration and production (E&P), and metals businesses Japan, China, and internationally. The company operates through Energy, Oil and Natural Gas E&P, Metals, and Other segments. It manufactures and sells petroleum products, including gasoline, kerosene, lubricants, etc., as well as petrochemicals; and offers crude oil, natural gas, and copper concentrates. In addition, the company offers non-ferrous metal products, including electrolytic coppers, functional materials, and thin-film materials. Further, the company develops and explores non-ferrous metal resources and products; recycles industrial waste treatment, titanium, and electric wires. Additionally, the company offers copper foils, precision rolled, and precision-fabricated products. Furthermore, it engages in the asphalt paving, civil engineering, construction, land transportation, and real estate leasing business. It is engaged in the sales of mineral resources; and researching, studying, evaluating, designing and planning, and consulting services. ENEOS Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

ENEOS Holdings generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are distributed across domestic and international markets. Additionally, the company earns income from the sale of petrochemical products and lubricants. A significant revenue stream also comes from its exploration and production activities in oil and gas fields. ENEOS has formed strategic partnerships with various companies to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market reach. Furthermore, the company's investment in renewable energy projects and technologies is expected to contribute to its future revenue growth as the demand for sustainable energy solutions increases.

ENEOS Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are mixed: the income statement is weak with TTM net losses and declining revenues versus recent annual periods, but leverage has improved (debt-to-equity below 1.0) and cash generation is currently strong with positive TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show very weak profitability: net income turned negative despite positive operating profit, reflecting a sharp deterioration from the prior annual periods that were solidly profitable. Revenue has been choppy—strong growth in 2022–2023 followed by declines in 2024, 2025, and again in TTM—while margins have compressed significantly versus the 2022 peak. Strengths are scale and still-positive gross profit and operating profit; the key weakness is the swing to a loss in TTM and reduced margin resilience.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable-to-moderate for the industry, with debt-to-equity below 1.0 in TTM and 2025, improving from higher leverage in 2022–2024. Equity is sizable relative to the asset base, supporting balance-sheet stability. The main concern is shareholder returns: return on equity is negative in TTM after being positive in recent annual periods, indicating earnings volatility is pressuring capital efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both strongly positive, following prior volatility (notably negative operating and free cash flow in 2023). Free cash flow in TTM is down versus the prior year, but still healthy in absolute terms. A key risk is consistency—cash flows have swung meaningfully year to year—yet the current TTM profile suggests the company is funding operations and investments with internally generated cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.44T	12.32T	13.86T	15.02T	10.92T	7.66T
Gross Profit	962.25B	1.10T	1.34T	1.21T	1.58T	1.08T
EBITDA	566.03B	627.48B	735.34B	626.29B	1.00T	605.99B
Net Income	184.62B	226.07B	288.12B	143.77B	537.12B	114.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.03T	8.79T	10.14T	9.95T	9.65T	8.06T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	775.38B	846.56B	775.91B	311.52B	547.27B	417.72B
Total Debt	2.98T	2.96T	3.55T	3.94T	3.63T	2.97T
Total Liabilities	5.47T	5.32T	6.43T	6.67T	6.41T	5.31T
Stockholders Equity	3.19T	3.10T	3.23T	2.86T	2.86T	2.33T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	492.17B	294.01B	681.87B	-428.98B	-46.01B	420.04B
Operating Cash Flow	724.01B	576.84B	1.01T	-110.25B	209.51B	679.09B
Investing Cash Flow	179.58B	131.54B	-238.20B	-113.55B	-310.93B	-306.79B
Financing Cash Flow	-651.77B	-631.19B	-333.81B	-15.70B	187.05B	-355.08B

ENEOS Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1488.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5020, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1488 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1421.42, above the 50-day MA of 1275.02, and above the 200-day MA of 959.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 55.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5020.

ENEOS Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8131	74 Outperform	¥131.32B	11.31	―	2.57%	7.46%	153.98%
5015	70 Outperform	¥23.00B	21.89	―	4.50%	13.76%	13.58%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.92T	62.58	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
8132	67 Neutral	¥71.05B	25.58	―	1.37%	-5.02%	186.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
5020	64 Neutral	$4.02T	21.74	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%
8133	63 Neutral	¥235.36B	16.46	―	3.45%	-4.87%	26.27%

ENEOS Holdings Corporate Events

ENEOS outlines FY2025 Q3 results and strategy progress

ENEOS Group has released headline information indicating it has announced its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. The agenda for this disclosure covers highlights of the results, progress under its fourth medium-term management plan, an overview of the business environment, detailed Q3 financial performance, and reference materials, pointing to a structured update on both current earnings and strategic execution.

While the content is high level, the framing suggests ENEOS aims to connect quarterly performance with longer-term strategic goals and market conditions. For investors and stakeholders, the focus on medium-term plan progress and business environment implies that management is emphasizing how financial results align with its ongoing transformation and positioning within the energy industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5020) stock is a Hold with a Yen1474.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ENEOS Holdings stock, see the JP:5020 Stock Forecast page.

ENEOS Lifts Profit Outlook and Dividend Despite Lower Revenue in Q3 FY2025

ENEOS Holdings reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of ¥8.72 trillion, down 4% year-on-year, while operating profit rose 26.6% to ¥270.8 billion and profit before tax climbed 28.1%. Profit attributable to owners fell 24.3% to ¥129.2 billion and basic earnings per share declined to ¥48.04, partly reflecting the reclassification and discontinuation of its former metals business and changes in equity-method contributions.

Total assets increased to ¥9.03 trillion and total equity attributable to owners rose to ¥3.19 trillion, keeping the equity ratio steady at 35.3%. The company maintained its forecast for full-year 2025, projecting ¥11.4 trillion in revenue and a sharp improvement in operating profit excluding inventory valuation factors to ¥420 billion, while also planning to raise annual dividends to ¥34 per share, signaling confidence in its core energy operations despite lower headline revenue and profit.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5020) stock is a Hold with a Yen1474.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ENEOS Holdings stock, see the JP:5020 Stock Forecast page.