Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (5021) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥731.94B
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 557.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 2.57%
• EPS Growth: -4.79%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 6,530
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 68.68
• Shares Outstanding: 165,041,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 444,540
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 557,900
• PEG Ratio: -0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,310.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 353.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.57T

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥4,973.00 ▲(19.11% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 11/15/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 11/15/25

Cosmo Energy's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and reasonable valuation, which are slightly offset by financial performance challenges, particularly in profit margins and cash flow management. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Diversified Integrated Model

Cosmo's integrated portfolio across refining, petrochemicals and upstream creates durable revenue diversification. Multiple cash engines reduce reliance on a single margin stream, supporting steady revenue through cycles and providing structural resilience over the next 2–6 months.

Stable Revenue Trajectory

Consistent year‑over‑year revenue growth indicates sustained demand for fuels and petrochemical products in Japan. This underlying top‑line stability supports near‑term planning, capacity utilization and investment decisions, helping preserve long‑term cash generation.

Strong Cash Conversion from Ops

A high operating cash flow to net income ratio signals quality earnings and reliable cash generation from core operations. This enhances the firm's ability to fund working capital, service debt and invest in maintenance or growth projects despite commodity cyclicality.

Negative Factors

Compressed Profit Margins

Material margin compression reduces earnings resilience in an industry exposed to volatile commodity spreads. Low net and operating margins limit retained earnings for reinvestment and heighten sensitivity to cost or price shocks over the medium term.

Deteriorating Free Cash Flow

A sharp fall in free cash flow undermines financial flexibility, constraining the ability to pay down debt, fund upstream projects or sustain dividends. If prolonged, this pressures liquidity and forces tradeoffs between capital expenditure and balance sheet repair.

Moderate Leverage & Waning ROE

With moderate leverage and a declining ROE trend, the company has less buffer against cyclical downturns. Leverage combined with weakening returns can restrict strategic investment and increase vulnerability to prolonged commodity weakness or unexpected capital needs.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the oil business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Petroleum, Petrochemical, Oil Exploration and Production, and Renewable Energy segments. The Petroleum segment produces and markets gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, crude oil, lubricants, and LPG products. The Petrochemical segment produces and sells ethylene, mixed xylene, para-xylene, benzene, toluene, and solvent related products. The Oil Exploration and Production segment explores and produces crude oil. The Renewable Energy supplies and sells electricity generated by wind and solar power. Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosmo Energy Holdings makes money primarily through (1) refining and marketing petroleum products, (2) petrochemical-related sales, and (3) upstream oil & gas earnings. 1) Petroleum refining & marketing (largest earnings driver in most integrated oil groups): The group purchases crude oil, refines it into products such as gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oils, and other refined products, and sells them to customers in Japan. Revenue in this segment is driven by sales volumes and market prices for refined products. Profitability is largely determined by the refining margin (the spread between refined product prices and crude oil/other feedstock costs), utilization rates of refining assets, and supply-demand conditions in domestic and regional product markets. The company also earns revenue from wholesale distribution and retail sales (e.g., fuel sales through service-station channels) and may generate ancillary income from related logistics and trading activities tied to petroleum product distribution; if specific sub-stream details are not publicly available in the referenced materials, they are null. 2) Petrochemicals: The group generates revenue by manufacturing and selling petrochemical products derived from petroleum-based feedstocks. Earnings depend on product prices and spreads (petrochemical product selling prices relative to feedstock costs), operating rates, and end-market demand (e.g., industrial materials). Specific named product lines not confirmed by available sources are null. 3) Oil & gas exploration and production (upstream): The company earns revenue and profit from its interests in oil and gas fields/projects. This typically includes sales of produced crude oil and natural gas (or entitlement volumes), with earnings influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, operating costs, and impairment or valuation effects associated with reserves and development projects. Details on specific fields, counterparties, or offtake arrangements that are not available are null. Across these businesses, consolidated results can be significantly affected by movements in crude oil and product prices, foreign exchange rates, inventory valuation effects, and macro demand conditions in Japan’s fuel and industrial markets. Specific significant partnerships or named counterparties are null if not disclosed in the available information.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosmo Energy displays stable revenue growth and a balanced leverage profile. However, declining profit margins and cash flow pressures highlight potential operational and financial challenges. Maintaining profitability and enhancing cash flow efficiency are critical for strengthening its financial health.

Income Statement

Cosmo Energy has demonstrated a steady revenue growth trajectory over the years, particularly with a 2.58% increase from 2024 to 2025. While gross profit margin showed some variation, it remained robust at approximately 10.95% in 2025. The net profit margin, however, declined to 2.06% in 2025, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also experienced a contraction to 4.58% and 6.69% respectively, indicating operational challenges in converting revenue to earnings.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06 in 2025, suggesting moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) was 9.86% in 2025, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio was 27.11%, showing a solid foundation of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cosmo Energy's free cash flow decreased significantly by 52.38% from 2024 to 2025, highlighting potential challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was strong at 2.38, indicating robust cash conversion from earnings. However, the decline in free cash flow to net income ratio to 0.75 signals a need for better cash flow management amid capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.79T	2.80T	2.73T	2.79T	2.44T	2.23T
Gross Profit	274.07B	306.82B	319.64B	320.73B	378.85B	232.67B
EBITDA	141.41B	187.38B	215.00B	213.54B	271.95B	154.44B
Net Income	30.95B	57.67B	82.06B	67.94B	138.89B	85.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.11T	2.16T	2.21T	2.12T	1.94T	1.71T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	147.45B	126.93B	117.30B	104.34B	80.33B	52.97B
Total Debt	668.87B	619.91B	618.32B	686.22B	583.66B	609.35B
Total Liabilities	1.42T	1.45T	1.49T	1.46T	1.35T	1.26T
Stockholders Equity	562.95B	584.78B	600.52B	527.89B	456.20B	324.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	43.36B	91.07B	-60.47B	49.94B	78.10B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	137.21B	177.94B	8.12B	108.36B	167.44B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-145.78B	-32.77B	-81.18B	-67.51B	-84.58B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-69.03B	-104.18B	81.14B	-42.04B	-80.57B

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4175.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5021, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4175 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4643.95, below the 50-day MA of 4563.68, and above the 200-day MA of 3781.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -30.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5021.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8131	74 Outperform	¥123.94B	17.49	―	2.57%	7.46%	153.98%
5021	73 Outperform	¥731.94B	15.20	―	3.93%	2.57%	-4.79%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.88T	21.95	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
8132	67 Neutral	¥69.65B	32.15	―	1.37%	-5.02%	186.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
8133	63 Neutral	¥222.15B	12.70	―	3.45%	-4.87%	26.27%
5020	56 Neutral	¥3.68T	11.54	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Cosmo Energy Completes ¥25 Billion Share Buyback Program

Cosmo Energy Holdings has completed a board-approved share repurchase program, acquiring a total of 5,328,900 common shares for approximately ¥24.999 billion by March 11, 2026. This effectively reaches the maximum monetary cap of ¥25 billion and nearly the full share limit of 6.25 million shares set in February, signaling an aggressive capital return stance and potential enhancement of shareholder value.

In March alone, the company bought back 647,700 shares for about ¥2.93 billion, using both off-floor transactions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and regular market trades via a discretionary investment contract. The completion of the program ahead of the original March 31 deadline underscores strong execution of its capital allocation policy and may support earnings per share and share price stability for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Hold with a Yen4588.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Buys Back ¥22 Billion of Shares Under Ongoing Repurchase Program

Cosmo Energy Holdings has reported progress on its ongoing share repurchase program authorized by its board on February 6, 2026. The company bought back 4,681,200 common shares for a total of about ¥22.07 billion between February 9 and February 28, 2026.

The repurchases represent a substantial portion of the board-approved ceiling of 6.25 million shares and ¥25 billion to be executed by March 31, 2026. This buyback underscores management’s continued focus on shareholder returns and capital efficiency, potentially supporting the stock price and earnings per share for existing investors as the program continues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5371.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Executes Major Share Buyback and Plans Further Market Purchases

Cosmo Energy Holdings has executed a repurchase of 4,124,900 common shares for approximately JPY 19.46 billion through an off-floor ToSTNeT-3 transaction on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This buyback, conducted under the Articles of Incorporation provisions, is part of the company’s broader capital policy and may support shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding and signaling confidence in its financial position.

Following this off-floor transaction, the company plans to continue repurchasing its own shares via market trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, within the limits previously approved by its board. The overall buyback program authorizes up to 6,250,000 shares or JPY 25 billion through March 31, 2026, indicating a significant commitment to capital return that could influence liquidity, ownership structure, and market perception of the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5261.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Launches Up to ¥25 Billion Share Buyback via TSE Off-Floor and Market Trades

Cosmo Energy Holdings has resolved to repurchase up to 4,451,000 of its common shares, with a maximum total outlay of ¥21.0 billion, through an off-floor transaction on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system at the February 6 closing price of ¥4,718, scheduled for execution at 8:45 a.m. on February 9, 2026. This transaction forms part of a broader share buyback program approved the same day, authorizing repurchases of up to 6,250,000 shares or ¥25.0 billion between February 9 and March 31, 2026 via both off-floor and market trades, signaling a shareholder-return focus and potentially enhancing capital efficiency and earnings per share for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Launches ¥25 Billion Share Buyback to Meet Payout Target

Cosmo Energy Holdings has approved a share repurchase program as part of its capital policy to enhance shareholder returns and fulfill its medium-term management target of achieving a total payout ratio of 60% or more over a three-year period. The company will buy back up to 6.25 million common shares, equivalent to about 3.81% of its outstanding stock (excluding treasury shares), for a maximum total of ¥25 billion between February 9 and March 31, 2026, via off-floor and market trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a move that is expected to improve capital efficiency and potentially support the share price while signaling management’s confidence in its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Announces Officer Structure Change and Leadership Realignment

Cosmo Energy Holdings has announced a leadership change in its top management, with Representative Director and Senior Executive Officer Junko Takeda scheduled to step down from the representative director role and assume the position of director effective April 1, 2026. The move, approved by the board of directors, is attributed to a reorganization of the officer structure, signaling an internal realignment of governance rather than an abrupt leadership departure, and will leave Group CEO Shigeru Yamada as the key representative of the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Holds Profit Forecast Steady as Q3 Earnings Decline, Steps Up Shareholder Returns

Cosmo Energy Holdings reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 consolidated results showing a modest 1.5% decline in net sales to ¥2,008.1 billion and broadly flat operating profit, but a sharper year-on-year drop in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting a tougher earnings environment despite slightly higher comprehensive income and a marginally improved net worth. The company kept its full-year forecast unchanged, projecting lower sales and profits than the prior year, and it is actively managing capital through a recently executed cancellation of treasury shares, a 2-for-1 stock split, and a newly approved share buyback, alongside maintaining a high dividend level when adjusted for the split, underscoring an ongoing commitment to shareholder returns even as profitability softens.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy to Absorb Shared-Services Subsidiary in Streamlining Move

Cosmo Energy Holdings has approved an absorption-type merger of its wholly owned subsidiary Cosmo Business Associates, a shared-services provider within the group, with an effective date of April 1, 2026. By folding the subsidiary’s accounting, purchasing, general affairs and human-resources functions into the holding company’s administrative division, the group aims to streamline its organizational structure, improve productivity and reduce complexity, with no share issuance, cash consideration or changes to Cosmo Energy’s name, business scope, capital or fiscal year-end expected following the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen4328.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.