Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (5021) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥750.32B
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 557.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 2.57%
• EPS Growth: -4.79%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 6,530
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 68.68
• Shares Outstanding: 165,041,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 444,540
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 557,900
• PEG Ratio: -0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,475.00
• Price Target Upside: 31.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥5,098.00 ▲(22.11% Upside)

Cosmo Energy's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and reasonable valuation, which are slightly offset by financial performance challenges, particularly in profit margins and cash flow management. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent top-line growth demonstrates durable underlying demand across Cosmo Energy's integrated businesses (refining, petrochemicals, upstream). A steady revenue base supports long-term planning, helps absorb commodity swings, and underpins investment capacity and market positioning in Japan.

Balance Sheet Strength

Moderate leverage and a solid equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund maintenance capex and strategic projects without overreliance on external financing. A near-10% ROE indicates efficient capital use, supporting sustainable shareholder returns and resilience through industry cycles.

Cash Conversion

High operating cash conversion shows the company reliably turns accounting profits into cash, supporting working capital needs, dividend payments and reinvestment. This structural cash generation capacity is key for capital-intensive energy operations over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Compressed Margins

Squeezed profitability limits the firm's ability to self-fund growth and cushions against cyclical downturns. Low net and operating margins reduce reinvestment headroom and make returns sensitive to modest cost or commodity-price pressures, weakening long-term earnings resilience.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A large fall in free cash flow materially reduces capacity to fund dividends, deleveraging or project investment without external funding. If sustained, this deterioration can constrain strategic flexibility and increase vulnerability to higher rates or weaker product margins.

Earnings Volatility

A sharp decline in EPS signals earnings instability, amplifying risk in a commodity-exposed integrated oil business. Persistent earnings volatility hampers long-term planning, may pressure credit metrics during downturns, and reduces predictability of cash returns to shareholders.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the oil business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Petroleum, Petrochemical, Oil Exploration and Production, and Renewable Energy segments. The Petroleum segment produces and markets gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, crude oil, lubricants, and LPG products. The Petrochemical segment produces and sells ethylene, mixed xylene, para-xylene, benzene, toluene, and solvent related products. The Oil Exploration and Production segment explores and produces crude oil. The Renewable Energy supplies and sells electricity generated by wind and solar power. Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosmo Energy Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of refined petroleum products, which include gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel. The company's revenue model is supported by its extensive network of service stations, retail operations, and industrial sales. Additionally, the company earns income from its upstream oil exploration and production activities, which contribute significantly to its overall profitability. Cosmo Energy also engages in petrochemical production, adding another layer to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with other energy firms and investments in renewable energy projects are key factors that enhance its earnings potential, allowing the company to diversify its offerings and mitigate risks associated with traditional energy markets.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosmo Energy displays stable revenue growth and a balanced leverage profile. However, declining profit margins and cash flow pressures highlight potential operational and financial challenges. Maintaining profitability and enhancing cash flow efficiency are critical for strengthening its financial health.

Income Statement

Cosmo Energy has demonstrated a steady revenue growth trajectory over the years, particularly with a 2.58% increase from 2024 to 2025. While gross profit margin showed some variation, it remained robust at approximately 10.95% in 2025. The net profit margin, however, declined to 2.06% in 2025, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also experienced a contraction to 4.58% and 6.69% respectively, indicating operational challenges in converting revenue to earnings.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06 in 2025, suggesting moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) was 9.86% in 2025, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio was 27.11%, showing a solid foundation of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cosmo Energy's free cash flow decreased significantly by 52.38% from 2024 to 2025, highlighting potential challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was strong at 2.38, indicating robust cash conversion from earnings. However, the decline in free cash flow to net income ratio to 0.75 signals a need for better cash flow management amid capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.79T	2.80T	2.73T	2.79T	2.44T	2.23T
Gross Profit	274.07B	306.82B	319.64B	320.73B	378.85B	232.67B
EBITDA	142.45B	187.38B	215.00B	213.54B	271.95B	154.85B
Net Income	30.95B	57.67B	82.06B	67.94B	138.89B	85.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.11T	2.16T	2.21T	2.12T	1.94T	1.71T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	147.45B	126.93B	117.30B	104.34B	80.33B	52.97B
Total Debt	668.87B	619.91B	618.32B	686.22B	583.66B	609.35B
Total Liabilities	1.42T	1.45T	1.49T	1.46T	1.35T	1.26T
Stockholders Equity	562.95B	584.78B	600.52B	527.89B	456.20B	324.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	43.36B	91.07B	-60.47B	49.94B	78.10B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	137.21B	177.94B	8.12B	108.36B	167.44B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-145.78B	-32.77B	-81.18B	-67.51B	-84.58B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-69.03B	-104.18B	81.14B	-42.04B	-80.57B

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4175.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5021, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4175 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4579.25, below the 50-day MA of 4382.30, and above the 200-day MA of 3620.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 74.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5021.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1662	84 Outperform	¥571.44B	12.31	16.04%	2.95%	4.14%	91.38%
1605	79 Outperform	¥4.16T	10.50	9.52%	2.91%	-11.79%	18.12%
5021	73 Outperform	¥750.32B	15.30	―	3.93%	2.57%	-4.79%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.78T	58.09	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
8133	63 Neutral	¥219.78B	15.38	―	3.45%	-4.87%	26.27%
5020	61 Neutral	¥3.85T	20.83	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Cosmo Energy Executes Major Share Buyback and Plans Further Market Purchases

Cosmo Energy Holdings has executed a repurchase of 4,124,900 common shares for approximately JPY 19.46 billion through an off-floor ToSTNeT-3 transaction on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This buyback, conducted under the Articles of Incorporation provisions, is part of the company’s broader capital policy and may support shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding and signaling confidence in its financial position.

Following this off-floor transaction, the company plans to continue repurchasing its own shares via market trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, within the limits previously approved by its board. The overall buyback program authorizes up to 6,250,000 shares or JPY 25 billion through March 31, 2026, indicating a significant commitment to capital return that could influence liquidity, ownership structure, and market perception of the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5261.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Launches Up to ¥25 Billion Share Buyback via TSE Off-Floor and Market Trades

Cosmo Energy Holdings has resolved to repurchase up to 4,451,000 of its common shares, with a maximum total outlay of ¥21.0 billion, through an off-floor transaction on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system at the February 6 closing price of ¥4,718, scheduled for execution at 8:45 a.m. on February 9, 2026. This transaction forms part of a broader share buyback program approved the same day, authorizing repurchases of up to 6,250,000 shares or ¥25.0 billion between February 9 and March 31, 2026 via both off-floor and market trades, signaling a shareholder-return focus and potentially enhancing capital efficiency and earnings per share for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Launches ¥25 Billion Share Buyback to Meet Payout Target

Cosmo Energy Holdings has approved a share repurchase program as part of its capital policy to enhance shareholder returns and fulfill its medium-term management target of achieving a total payout ratio of 60% or more over a three-year period. The company will buy back up to 6.25 million common shares, equivalent to about 3.81% of its outstanding stock (excluding treasury shares), for a maximum total of ¥25 billion between February 9 and March 31, 2026, via off-floor and market trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a move that is expected to improve capital efficiency and potentially support the share price while signaling management’s confidence in its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Announces Officer Structure Change and Leadership Realignment

Cosmo Energy Holdings has announced a leadership change in its top management, with Representative Director and Senior Executive Officer Junko Takeda scheduled to step down from the representative director role and assume the position of director effective April 1, 2026. The move, approved by the board of directors, is attributed to a reorganization of the officer structure, signaling an internal realignment of governance rather than an abrupt leadership departure, and will leave Group CEO Shigeru Yamada as the key representative of the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy Holds Profit Forecast Steady as Q3 Earnings Decline, Steps Up Shareholder Returns

Cosmo Energy Holdings reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 consolidated results showing a modest 1.5% decline in net sales to ¥2,008.1 billion and broadly flat operating profit, but a sharper year-on-year drop in ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting a tougher earnings environment despite slightly higher comprehensive income and a marginally improved net worth. The company kept its full-year forecast unchanged, projecting lower sales and profits than the prior year, and it is actively managing capital through a recently executed cancellation of treasury shares, a 2-for-1 stock split, and a newly approved share buyback, alongside maintaining a high dividend level when adjusted for the split, underscoring an ongoing commitment to shareholder returns even as profitability softens.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen5136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.

Cosmo Energy to Absorb Shared-Services Subsidiary in Streamlining Move

Cosmo Energy Holdings has approved an absorption-type merger of its wholly owned subsidiary Cosmo Business Associates, a shared-services provider within the group, with an effective date of April 1, 2026. By folding the subsidiary’s accounting, purchasing, general affairs and human-resources functions into the holding company’s administrative division, the group aims to streamline its organizational structure, improve productivity and reduce complexity, with no share issuance, cash consideration or changes to Cosmo Energy’s name, business scope, capital or fiscal year-end expected following the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5021) stock is a Buy with a Yen4328.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:5021 Stock Forecast page.