INPEX CORPORATION (JP:1605)
:1605
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INPEX
(1605)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
¥5,066.00
▲(62.37% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven by strong underlying financial performance (high profitability and robust cash generation) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is supportive (low P/E with a moderate dividend yield), but the latest earnings call adds meaningful near-term risk due to guidance for lower profit, expected negative free cash flow from sharply higher capex, and commissioning-related production disruption.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound in 2025 demonstrate durable internal funding capacity. This underpins the company’s ability to finance growth capex, sustain dividends and service debt without immediate reliance on equity issuance, helping absorb commodity cycles over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Heavy capex / negative FCF risk
A near-term doubling of growth capex to JPY 850B and the resulting negative FCF mean INPEX must raise external funds and accept higher leverage. This constrains financial flexibility, increases interest and refinancing risk, and raises execution pressure to deliver project cash returns to restore free cash flow in subsequent years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound in 2025 demonstrate durable internal funding capacity. This underpins the company’s ability to finance growth capex, sustain dividends and service debt without immediate reliance on equity issuance, helping absorb commodity cycles over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
INPEX (1605) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥5.47T
Dividend Yield2.91%
Average Volume (3M)4.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-11.79%
EPS Growth18.12%
CountryJP
Employees3,679
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)85.45
Shares Outstanding1,259,136,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,382,960
30 Day Avg. Volume4,581,243
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥4,303.33Price Target Upside37.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)354.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.17T
INPEX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Inpex Corporation engages in the research, exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources in Japan, rest of Asia and Oceania, Europe and NIS countries, the Middle East and Africa, and the Americas. ...
How the Company Makes Money
INPEX makes money mainly by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and LNG—from its portfolio of upstream oil and gas projects.
1) Upstream production and sales (primary revenue driver)
- Working interests in oil and gas field...
INPEX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong operational and market achievements (record adjusted earnings, robust shareholder returns, share-price recovery, Ichthys contribution, progress on Abadi FEED, and active clean-energy initiatives) alongside notable near-term headwinds (commodity/FX sensitivity, Ichthys commissioning disruption, large FY2026 capex driving negative free cash flow and higher leverage, and ROIC/ROE metrics near or below capital costs). Management emphasized disciplined financing, continued shareholder returns and long-term growth confidence, but several execution and financial-return risks remain until major growth projects ramp. Overall, positives are meaningful but balanced by concrete near-term financial and operational risks.Positive Updates
Strong FY2025 Adjusted Profit Performance
Reported net profit of JPY 393.8 billion for FY2025 (third-highest on record); company states that after adjusting for oil price and FX this is the highest on record, demonstrating improved earnings-generating ability.
Negative Updates
Headline Profit Decline vs Prior Year
Reported net profit declined from JPY 427.3 billion to JPY 393.8 billion (≈ -JPY 33.5 billion, ≈ -7.8% year-on-year) driven by lower oil prices and Ichthys shutdown/operational impacts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong FY2025 Adjusted Profit Performance
Reported net profit of JPY 393.8 billion for FY2025 (third-highest on record); company states that after adjusting for oil price and FX this is the highest on record, demonstrating improved earnings-generating ability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
INPEX guided FY2026 net profit of JPY 330 billion on conservative assumptions of Brent $63/bbl and FX JPY151/USD, and forecast an annual dividend of JPY 108/share while reiterating a >50% total shareholder return commitment (FY2025 TSR 55.4%; FY2025 dividend JPY100). Management plans heavy growth investment—JPY 850 billion in 2026 (vs ~JPY 400 billion in 2025) and a 3‑year investment program of JPY 1.9 trillion (including ~JPY 855 billion for LNG/natural gas and ~JPY 938 billion for Abadi/new asset growth). Operationally, Ichthys shipped 112 cargoes in 2025 (contributing ~JPY 270 billion) but 2026 production will be constrained by booster‑compressor commissioning (impacting roughly ten cargoes versus plan). Key financial metrics: FY2026 ROE ~7%, ROIC ~6% (from 7.3% in 2025), net debt/equity guidance 0.3–0.8x (projected ~0.39x after financing), oil/FX sensitivity ~JPY 5.5 billion per $1 Brent and ~JPY 3 billion per JPY1/USD, and profit‑booster accounting effects of ~JPY 80 billion gross (JPY 60 billion delta) in 2025 with ~JPY 90 billion expected in 2026.INPEX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.12T | 2.01T | 2.27T | 2.16T | 2.32T | 1.24T |
| Gross Profit | 1.25T | 1.13T | 1.35T | 1.32T | 1.38T | 675.45B |
| EBITDA | 1.46T | 1.36T | 1.52T | 1.53T | 1.55T | 800.70B |
| Net Income | 438.29B | 393.84B | 427.34B | 321.71B | 438.28B | 223.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.03T | 7.74T | 7.38T | 6.74T | 6.45T | 5.16T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 262.45B | 168.41B | 241.68B | 201.15B | 208.24B | 201.76B |
| Total Debt | 1.10T | 1.24T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 1.27T | 1.20T |
| Total Liabilities | 2.20T | 2.71T | 2.24T | 2.24T | 2.38T | 1.81T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.59T | 4.75T | 4.82T | 4.21T | 3.81T | 3.12T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 691.27B | 353.68B | 536.00B | 538.59B | 304.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 693.89B | 654.74B | 788.13B | 782.27B | 445.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -667.00B | -283.26B | -308.32B | -513.47B | -124.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -112.46B | -357.07B | -499.06B | -268.25B | -321.67B |
INPEX Technical Analysis
Positive
3120.00
Price Trends
3980.64
Positive
3557.18
Positive
2973.29
Positive
Market Momentum
220.32
Positive
57.21
Neutral
49.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1605, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3120 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4497.95, below the 50-day MA of 3980.64, and above the 200-day MA of 2973.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 220.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:1605.
INPEX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | ¥645.29B | 7.90 | 8.62% | 2.95% | 4.14% | 91.38% | |
78 Outperform | ¥5.47T | 9.15 | 8.54% | 2.91% | -11.79% | 18.12% | |
73 Outperform | ¥728.98B | 15.20 | ― | 3.93% | 2.57% | -4.79% | |
68 Neutral | ¥2.01T | 21.95 | 2.23% | 3.07% | -7.68% | -73.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | ¥1.02T | 2,361.65 | 24.31% | 0.73% | 10.13% | 25.50% | |
56 Neutral | ¥3.88T | 11.54 | -0.15% | 2.74% | -14.13% | 33.18% |
* Energy Sector Average
JP:1605
INPEX
4,567.00
2,936.44
180.09%
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INPEX Corporate Events
INPEX Revamps Leadership in Broad Board and Executive Reshuffle
Feb 16, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has announced a renewal of its management structure, highlighted by the appointment of Hitoshi Okawa as Representative Director while he continues as Senior Executive Vice President overseeing General Administration, Oceania proj...
INPEX Announces Resignation of Outside Director Atsuko Nishimura
Feb 16, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has announced that Outside Director Atsuko Nishimura will resign from the board, with her departure scheduled to take effect on February 28, 2026. The company stated that Nishimura is stepping down for personal reasons, without d...
INPEX to Brief Investors on 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook
Feb 12, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has scheduled an investor meeting to present its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, and its consolidated financial forecasts for 2026. The session will be led by President and CEO Takayuki Ueda and senior exe...
INPEX Profit Eases in 2025 as Revenue Falls, Dividend Payout Rises
Feb 12, 2026
INPEX reported a decline in full-year 2025 results, with revenue down 11.2% to ¥2.01 trillion and operating profit falling 10.7%, while profit attributable to owners of the parent slipped 7.8% to ¥393.8 billion. Despite weaker earnings a...
INPEX Completes Nearly ¥100 Billion Share Buyback Program
Jan 13, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has completed a share buyback program authorized by its board, acquiring 3,216,500 common shares between January 1 and January 9, 2026 via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at a total cost of approximately 9.98 billion...
INPEX Advances Shareholder Returns with Ongoing ¥100 Billion Share Buyback
Jan 9, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has continued its share buyback program, acquiring 7,431,300 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025 at a total cost of approximately ¥23.6 billion. This forms part of a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.