INPEX (1605) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.83T
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: -11.79%
• EPS Growth: 18.12%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,679
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 85.45
• Shares Outstanding: 1,259,136,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,382,960
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,581,243
• PEG Ratio: -2.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥3,696.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 324.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.02T

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥4,039.00 ▲(29.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and excellent operating/free cash flow), supported by a favorable technical trend (above key moving averages with positive MACD) and reasonable valuation (P/E ~10.5 with a ~2.82% yield). The main offset is cyclicality, including volatile revenue/free cash flow and higher total debt in 2025.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistently strong operating cash flow and repeated positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt servicing. This cash-generation ability improves strategic optionality and resilience through commodity cycles, supporting long-term capital allocation.

LNG value-chain participation

INPEX's participation across upstream and the LNG value chain, combined with long-term offtake contracts, creates structural volume and revenue stability versus pure spot exposure. That contractual backbone supports predictable cashflows and positions the company to benefit from secular LNG demand growth.

High margins

Sustained high gross and net margins indicate competitive operating economics and pricing power in core assets. Margin strength underpins robust free cash flow, enabling reinvestment and shareholder distributions and making the business more resilient to moderate price or volume shocks.

Negative Factors

Revenue volatility

Wide year-to-year revenue swings driven by commodity prices reduce predictability of earnings and cashflow, complicating capital planning and dividend forecasting. This structural cyclicality forces a conservative balance between investment and returns and raises execution risk on multi-year projects.

Rising debt in 2025

An uptick in nominal debt in 2025 weakens financial headroom even if leverage remains moderate. Higher absolute borrowings increase interest and refinancing risk during downturns, limiting flexibility for opportunistic investments or additional distributions without further balance-sheet action.

Moderate ROE

ROE that is solid but not exceptional suggests the company converts cash generation into shareholder returns modestly. This may reflect heavy reinvestment, fiscal terms or project returns below investor expectations, limiting long-term attractiveness to yield/return-focused capital over peers.

INPEX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Inpex Corporation engages in the research, exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources in Japan, rest of Asia and Oceania, Europe and NIS countries, the Middle East and Africa, and the Americas. It is also involved in the investment and lending to the companies engaged in mineral resources business, etc. In addition, the company transports natural gas, as well as operates, manages, and maintains gas pipelines. As of December 31, 2021, its proved reserves were 2,704 million barrels for crude oil, condensate, and LPG; and 5,118 billion cubic feet for natural gas, for a total of 3,645 million BOE. Inpex Corporation was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

INPEX generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company earns money by selling the hydrocarbons it extracts from its various projects, both on the spot market and through long-term contracts. Key revenue streams include production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and equity interests in oil and gas fields. In addition, INPEX benefits from partnerships with other energy companies and national governments, which can provide access to new resources and markets. The company's financial performance is influenced by global oil and gas prices, production levels, and operational efficiency. Significant projects, such as the Ichthys LNG project in Australia, also contribute substantially to the company's earnings by providing liquefied natural gas to international markets.

INPEX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and very strong cash generation support a healthy financial profile. Key risks are commodity-driven volatility in revenue/free cash flow and a rise in total debt in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong across the cycle, with very high gross and operating profitability in 2021–2024 (gross profit margin ~54%–61% and net profit margin ~15%–21% in 2022–2024). Earnings recovered sharply after a loss in 2020 and remained solid through 2024 (net income ¥427B). The main weakness is top-line volatility: revenue swung from +87% (2022) to -6.9% (2023), +4.7% (2024), and -5.3% in 2025, reflecting commodity sensitivity and creating less predictable earnings momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled for the industry: debt-to-equity improved from 0.45 (2020) to ~0.22–0.25 (2023–2024). Equity has grown materially (¥2.74T in 2020 to ¥4.82T in 2024), supporting balance-sheet resilience. Offsetting this, total debt rose in 2025 (¥1.24T vs. ¥1.06T in 2024), and returns on equity are moderate rather than exceptional (~7.6%–13.2% over 2021–2024, 8.9% in 2024), suggesting profitability is strong but not consistently translating into very high shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength. Operating cash flow is consistently robust (¥445B–¥788B in 2021–2024, ¥694B in 2025) and generally exceeds net income (operating cash flow to net income ~1.23–1.43 in 2022–2024). Free cash flow is meaningfully positive each year and surged in 2025 (¥691B vs. ¥354B in 2024). The main concern is volatility: free cash flow declined in 2023 and 2024 before rebounding sharply, which may reflect swings in capex timing and underlying commodity-driven cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12T	2.01T	2.27T	2.16T	2.32T	1.24T
Gross Profit	1.25T	1.13T	1.35T	1.32T	1.38T	675.45B
EBITDA	1.50T	1.36T	1.53T	1.63T	1.63T	867.24B
Net Income	438.28B	393.84B	427.34B	321.71B	498.45B	223.05B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.03T	7.74T	7.38T	6.74T	6.26T	5.16T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	262.45B	168.41B	241.68B	201.15B	285.98B	201.76B
Total Debt	1.10T	1.24T	1.06T	1.06T	1.27T	1.18T
Total Liabilities	2.20T	2.71T	2.24T	2.24T	2.22T	1.81T
Stockholders Equity	4.59T	4.75T	4.82T	4.21T	3.78T	3.12T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	691.27B	353.68B	536.00B	554.62B	294.49B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	693.89B	654.74B	788.13B	751.28B	445.46B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-667.00B	-290.40B	-320.12B	-525.57B	-130.73B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-112.46B	-349.94B	-487.27B	-241.93B	-315.21B

INPEX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3120.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1605, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3120 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3652.30, below the 50-day MA of 3369.63, and above the 200-day MA of 2668.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 97.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:1605.

INPEX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1662	84 Outperform	¥682.10B	13.13	16.04%	2.95%	4.14%	91.38%
1605	78 Outperform	¥4.83T	11.49	9.52%	2.91%	-11.79%	18.12%
5021	73 Outperform	¥810.71B	16.12	―	3.93%	2.57%	-4.79%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.96T	62.58	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
5020	64 Neutral	¥4.17T	21.74	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%
6269	62 Neutral	¥937.08B	17.01	24.31%	0.73%	10.13%	25.50%

INPEX Corporate Events

INPEX Revamps Leadership in Broad Board and Executive Reshuffle

INPEX CORPORATION has announced a renewal of its management structure, highlighted by the appointment of Hitoshi Okawa as Representative Director while he continues as Senior Executive Vice President overseeing General Administration, Oceania projects and overseas operations. The move, subject to shareholder approval on March 27, 2026, reflects a broader leadership refresh aimed at strengthening governance and international project oversight.

The company will also add Senior Managing Executive Officer Hideki Kurimura and outside directors Naoko Saiki and Hidenori Takaoka to its board, while directors Hiroshi Fujii and Jun Yanai will step down, with Fujii becoming a corporate advisor. In related shifts, corporate advisor Kenji Kawano will lead INPEX Solutions and counselor Hiromi Sugiyama will head INPEX PIPELINE (JAPAN), signaling a redistribution of leadership talent across key subsidiaries to support the group’s operational and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Announces Resignation of Outside Director Atsuko Nishimura

INPEX CORPORATION has announced that Outside Director Atsuko Nishimura will resign from the board, with her departure scheduled to take effect on February 28, 2026. The company stated that Nishimura is stepping down for personal reasons, without disclosing further details about the circumstances of her decision.

Following this resignation, INPEX emphasized that the number of directors will remain in compliance with relevant laws, regulations and the company’s Articles of Incorporation. The disclosure signals that the governance framework and board structure will continue to meet statutory requirements, suggesting limited immediate impact on corporate oversight or decision-making stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX to Brief Investors on 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook

INPEX CORPORATION has scheduled an investor meeting to present its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, and its consolidated financial forecasts for 2026. The session will be led by President and CEO Takayuki Ueda and senior executives overseeing finance and corporate strategy.

The agenda covers a business overview, detailed discussion of consolidated results and outlook, and a progress update on the company’s “Sustainable Growth of Corporate Value” initiative. A dedicated Q&A segment signals a focus on transparency for investors and may offer insights into INPEX’s strategic priorities and capital allocation plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Profit Eases in 2025 as Revenue Falls, Dividend Payout Rises

INPEX reported a decline in full-year 2025 results, with revenue down 11.2% to ¥2.01 trillion and operating profit falling 10.7%, while profit attributable to owners of the parent slipped 7.8% to ¥393.8 billion. Despite weaker earnings and a drop in total comprehensive income, profitability metrics such as a 56.5% operating margin and 15.5% ratio of profit before tax to total assets remained robust, underscoring resilient operations amid a softer environment.

The company strengthened shareholder returns by raising the annual dividend to ¥100 per common share for 2025, up from ¥86, and plans a further increase to ¥108 in 2026 alongside ongoing share buybacks that lifted treasury stock. INPEX forecasts another year of moderate contraction in 2026, with revenue expected to fall 5.9% and profit attributable to owners of the parent down 16.2%, signaling a cautious outlook as earnings normalize from recent peaks and sector conditions remain challenging.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3845.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Completes Nearly ¥100 Billion Share Buyback Program

INPEX CORPORATION has completed a share buyback program authorized by its board, acquiring 3,216,500 common shares between January 1 and January 9, 2026 via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at a total cost of approximately 9.98 billion yen. This transaction forms part of a broader buyback framework approved in November 2025, under which INPEX has cumulatively repurchased 35,238,300 shares for nearly 100 billion yen, representing a sizeable capital allocation move that may support shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding and signaling confidence in the company’s financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3667.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Advances Shareholder Returns with Ongoing ¥100 Billion Share Buyback

INPEX CORPORATION has continued its share buyback program, acquiring 7,431,300 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025 at a total cost of approximately ¥23.6 billion. This forms part of a broader Board-approved repurchase plan, under which INPEX is authorized to buy back up to 60 million shares or ¥100 billion between August 12, 2025 and January 31, 2026; by the end of December 2025, the company had cumulatively repurchased 32,021,800 shares for about ¥90.0 billion, signaling an ongoing effort to enhance capital efficiency and return value to shareholders through active treasury stock acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3635.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Acquires 6 Million Treasury Shares in November

INPEX CORPORATION announced the acquisition of 6,072,000 shares of its treasury stock between November 1 and November 30, 2025, at a total cost of 18.65 billion yen. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 60 million shares by January 31, 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3635.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.

INPEX Announces Leadership Change

INPEX Corporation has announced a change in its leadership structure, effective January 1, 2026. Hiroshi Fujii, currently serving as the Representative Director and Senior Executive Vice President for Europe & Middle East Projects, will transition to the role of Director and Corporate Advisor. This change reflects a strategic shift within the company’s executive team, potentially impacting its operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1605) stock is a Buy with a Yen3635.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on INPEX stock, see the JP:1605 Stock Forecast page.