Want to see JP:1605 full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
INPEX
(1605)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
¥3,936.00
▲(4.65% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and cash flow resilience) and supportive earnings-call guidance with enhanced shareholder returns. Valuation is reasonably attractive (moderate P/E and solid yield). Offsetting these positives, technicals are mixed and the outlook remains sensitive to commodity/geopolitical factors and project-execution uncertainty (notably Abadi).
Positive Factors
Cash generation resilience
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a large free-cash-flow surge provide durable funding for capex, dividends, buybacks and project reserves. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk and lets management fund growth (Abadi) from internal resources across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Geopolitical volume risk (Abu Dhabi)
Significant reliance on exports transiting geopolitical chokepoints creates structural downside to volumes and near‑term cash flows. Prolonged disruption can erode revenue and force costly logistics or rerouting, making operating results and planning materially less predictable over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation resilience
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a large free-cash-flow surge provide durable funding for capex, dividends, buybacks and project reserves. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk and lets management fund growth (Abadi) from internal resources across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
INPEX (1605) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥4.45T
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)4.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth-7.57%
EPS Growth2.16%
CountryJP
Employees3,720
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)319.38
Shares Outstanding1,259,136,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,382,960
30 Day Avg. Volume4,581,243
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥4,452.86Price Target Upside18.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)404.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.35T
INPEX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Inpex Corporation is a global energy company specializing in the entire lifecycle of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources, from initial exploration and development through to production and sales. The company maintains a broad internation...
How the Company Makes Money
INPEX primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and LNG—derived from its operated and non-operated upstream projects. Revenue is generally generated through (1) lifting/sales of crude oil and c...
INPEX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: record H1 profit, a record full-year profit target (JPY 510 billion), strong operating cash flow (>JPY 1 trillion), clear progress on major growth projects (Abadi FEED ~80%, Ichthys performance), and a robust shareholder return program (DPS JPY112, JPY140 billion buyback). Management also candidly discussed risks: a ~30% reduction in Abu Dhabi sales volume from the Strait of Hormuz closure (partially offset by portfolio and higher prices), one-off impairments (~JPY 20 billion), uncertainty around Abadi final CapEx/IRR and Indonesian negotiations, and regulatory/geopolitical risks in Australia and the Middle East. On balance, the positive items (record earnings, cash generation, project progress, shareholder returns) outweigh the challenges, though timing and policy risks remain material.Positive Updates
Record profit and strong full-year forecast
Net profit (H1) reached JPY 263.1 billion (highest on record); management forecasts full-year profit of JPY 510 billion (record high) and ROE above 10%.
Negative Updates
Abu Dhabi sales volume decline (~30%) due to Strait of Hormuz disruption
Sales volume from Abu Dhabi fell approximately 30% year-over-year for the period because oil exports for some fields require transit through the Strait of Hormuz; management now assumes normalization by October (versus earlier assumptions).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record profit and strong full-year forecast
Net profit (H1) reached JPY 263.1 billion (highest on record); management forecasts full-year profit of JPY 510 billion (record high) and ROE above 10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
INPEX guided to record results and continued growth: H1 profit attributable to owners reached JPY 263.1 billion (H1 EPS JPY 226.33), and management reiterated a full‑year net profit forecast of JPY 510 billion with operating cash flow of about JPY 1.0 trillion and investment cash flow of JPY 859 billion; they expect to accumulate roughly JPY 770 billion of cash reserves for Abadi by year‑end, pay a record JPY 112 DPS (up JPY 12), execute about JPY 140 billion of share buybacks and target a total payout ratio of ~53%. Production is guided to rise from ~730,000 BOE/d to ~800,000 BOE/d after Abadi, with operating cash flow potential growing to JPY 1.5 trillion; Abadi FEED is ~80% complete with FID hoped mid‑next year, Abadi LNG capacity 9.5 Mtpa (≈8 Mtpa long‑term contracts + ~1.5 Mtpa buffer), Ichthys cargoes and LNG sales up (c.10 cargoes/month), Abu Dhabi sales volume down ~30% year‑on‑year due to Strait of Hormuz issues (normalization assumed around October), and macro assumptions of Brent ~$80 (Q3)/$70 (Q4) and yen around JPY 160.INPEX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98T | 2.01T | 2.27T | 2.16T | 2.32T | 1.24T |
| Gross Profit | 1.09T | 1.13T | 1.35T | 1.32T | 1.38T | 675.45B |
| EBITDA | 1.51T | 1.61T | 1.52T | 1.53T | 1.55T | 867.24B |
| Net Income | 376.96B | 393.84B | 427.34B | 321.71B | 438.28B | 223.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.02T | 7.74T | 7.38T | 6.74T | 6.45T | 5.16T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 210.49B | 168.41B | 241.68B | 201.15B | 208.24B | 201.76B |
| Total Debt | 1.34T | 1.24T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 1.27T | 1.20T |
| Total Liabilities | 2.90T | 2.71T | 2.24T | 2.24T | 2.38T | 1.81T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.89T | 4.75T | 4.82T | 4.21T | 3.81T | 3.12T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 691.27B | 353.68B | 536.00B | 538.59B | 304.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 693.89B | 654.74B | 788.13B | 782.27B | 445.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -667.00B | -283.26B | -308.32B | -513.47B | -124.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -112.46B | -357.07B | -499.06B | -268.25B | -321.67B |
INPEX Technical Analysis
Positive
3761.00
Price Trends
3466.93
Positive
3759.35
Negative
3504.06
Positive
Market Momentum
40.43
Negative
59.53
Neutral
77.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1605, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3761 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3570.75, above the 50-day MA of 3466.93, and above the 200-day MA of 3504.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 40.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:1605.
INPEX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | ¥4.45T | 9.99 | 8.06% | 2.77% | -7.57% | 2.16% | |
73 Outperform | ¥676.04B | 10.11 | 28.73% | 1.73% | 16.80% | 89.11% | |
72 Outperform | ¥3.46T | 5.00 | 8.16% | 2.57% | 2.30% | 437.64% | |
71 Outperform | ¥463.85B | 11.19 | 9.47% | 3.73% | -15.65% | -52.06% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | ¥1.59T | 4.06 | 9.71% | 2.78% | -2.72% | 3087.62% | |
59 Neutral | ¥670.07B | 4.09 | ― | 3.93% | -0.10% | 446.81% |
* Energy Sector Average
JP:1605
INPEX
3,700.00
1,462.87
65.39%
JP:5019
Idemitsu Kosan Co
1,283.00
354.73
38.21%
JP:1662
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co
1,790.00
664.69
59.07%
JP:5020
ENEOS Holdings
1,282.50
459.92
55.91%
JP:6269
Modec
10,215.00
3,363.80
49.10%
JP:5021
Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.
4,069.00
721.11
21.54%
INPEX Corporate Events
INPEX Launches ¥140 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION’s board has approved a new share buyback program, authorizing the acquisition of up to 50 million common shares, or about 4.3 percent of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares, for a total amount of up to 140 billi...
INPEX Lifts Interim Dividends and Raises 2026 Payout Forecasts
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX has approved higher interim dividends for both common and Class A shares and raised its year-end dividend forecasts for the 2026 fiscal year, signaling stronger returns to shareholders. The interim dividend for common stock is set at 56 yen ...
INPEX Lifts 2026 Profit Outlook on Strong Ichthys Output Despite Middle East Drag
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX reported that revenue for the first half of 2026 came in slightly below its earlier forecast due to lower sales volumes stemming from instability in the Middle East. However, profits beat expectations as higher crude oil prices and strong ou...
INPEX Sets Investor Briefing on FY2026 First-Half Results and Outlook
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION, a major Japanese oil and gas producer, outlined its financial communications plan for the first half of fiscal 2026, reflecting its continued role in securing energy supply for Japan and its global partners. The company schedule...
INPEX Raises Dividend Forecast as First-Half Profit Climbs Despite Lower Revenue
Aug 7, 2026
INPEX reported consolidated revenue of ¥1,000.5 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, down 4.6% year on year, while operating profit was broadly flat at ¥618.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent rose 17.7% ...
INPEX Advances Upper Zakum Expansion with EPC Tender Awards
Jun 26, 2026
INPEX said its subsidiary Japan Oil Development Co., Ltd., together with partners, has issued engineering, procurement and construction tender awards for further development of the offshore Upper Zakum Oil Field in the United Arab Emirates. The pr...
INPEX Lifts 2026 Earnings Outlook on Strong Operations and Higher Oil Price Assumptions
May 13, 2026
INPEX has sharply raised its consolidated financial forecasts for the first half and full year 2026, citing stable operations at the Ichthys Project and other assets, along with updated assumptions for higher Brent crude prices and a weaker yen. T...
INPEX Flags Key Risks Around Q1 2026 Financial Disclosures
May 13, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has released support material accompanying its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, emphasizing that the information includes forward-looking elements based on current assumptions and judgments. The compan...
INPEX Q1 Profit Falls but Dividend Outlook Raised for 2026
May 13, 2026
INPEX reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of ¥501.8 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year, with operating profit sliding 14.1% to ¥278.2 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent declining 13.4% to ¥109.4 billion. Despite so...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.