INPEX CORPORATION (JP:1605)
:1605
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INPEX
(1605)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
¥3,915.00
▲(25.48% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/12/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (healthy profitability and very strong operating/free cash flow), partially offset by weak technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
INPEX’s operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income and free cash flow turned strongly positive in 2025, providing durable internal funding for capex, dividends and joint‑venture commitments. This cash resilience supports capital allocation through commodity cycles and reduces reliance on external financing, strengthening long-term operational flexibility.
Negative Factors
Revenue and cash-flow cyclicality
INPEX’s top-line and free cash flow show large swings tied to the commodity cycle, making multi-year planning and margin stability uncertain. Volatility complicates capital allocation, can force capex deferrals or dividend adjustments during downturns, and increases earnings predictability risk for investors and counterparties over a 2–6 month horizon.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
INPEX’s operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income and free cash flow turned strongly positive in 2025, providing durable internal funding for capex, dividends and joint‑venture commitments. This cash resilience supports capital allocation through commodity cycles and reduces reliance on external financing, strengthening long-term operational flexibility.
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INPEX (1605) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥4.04T
Dividend Yield2.91%
Average Volume (3M)4.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-10.41%
EPS Growth-9.73%
CountryJP
Employees3,679
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)364.77
Shares Outstanding1,259,136,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,382,960
30 Day Avg. Volume4,581,243
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥4,470.00Price Target Upside43.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)395.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.31T
INPEX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Inpex Corporation is a global energy company specializing in the entire lifecycle of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources, from initial exploration and development through to production and sales. The company maintains a broad internation...
How the Company Makes Money
INPEX primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and LNG—generated from its upstream oil and gas fields and projects. Revenue is largely driven by (1) sales volumes from operated and non-operate...
INPEX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong operational and market achievements (record adjusted earnings, robust shareholder returns, share-price recovery, Ichthys contribution, progress on Abadi FEED, and active clean-energy initiatives) alongside notable near-term headwinds (commodity/FX sensitivity, Ichthys commissioning disruption, large FY2026 capex driving negative free cash flow and higher leverage, and ROIC/ROE metrics near or below capital costs). Management emphasized disciplined financing, continued shareholder returns and long-term growth confidence, but several execution and financial-return risks remain until major growth projects ramp. Overall, positives are meaningful but balanced by concrete near-term financial and operational risks.Positive Updates
Strong FY2025 Adjusted Profit Performance
Reported net profit of JPY 393.8 billion for FY2025 (third-highest on record); company states that after adjusting for oil price and FX this is the highest on record, demonstrating improved earnings-generating ability.
Negative Updates
Headline Profit Decline vs Prior Year
Reported net profit declined from JPY 427.3 billion to JPY 393.8 billion (≈ -JPY 33.5 billion, ≈ -7.8% year-on-year) driven by lower oil prices and Ichthys shutdown/operational impacts.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong FY2025 Adjusted Profit Performance
Reported net profit of JPY 393.8 billion for FY2025 (third-highest on record); company states that after adjusting for oil price and FX this is the highest on record, demonstrating improved earnings-generating ability.
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Company Guidance
INPEX guided FY2026 net profit of JPY 330 billion on conservative assumptions of Brent $63/bbl and FX JPY151/USD, and forecast an annual dividend of JPY 108/share while reiterating a >50% total shareholder return commitment (FY2025 TSR 55.4%; FY2025 dividend JPY100). Management plans heavy growth investment—JPY 850 billion in 2026 (vs ~JPY 400 billion in 2025) and a 3‑year investment program of JPY 1.9 trillion (including ~JPY 855 billion for LNG/natural gas and ~JPY 938 billion for Abadi/new asset growth). Operationally, Ichthys shipped 112 cargoes in 2025 (contributing ~JPY 270 billion) but 2026 production will be constrained by booster‑compressor commissioning (impacting roughly ten cargoes versus plan). Key financial metrics: FY2026 ROE ~7%, ROIC ~6% (from 7.3% in 2025), net debt/equity guidance 0.3–0.8x (projected ~0.39x after financing), oil/FX sensitivity ~JPY 5.5 billion per $1 Brent and ~JPY 3 billion per JPY1/USD, and profit‑booster accounting effects of ~JPY 80 billion gross (JPY 60 billion delta) in 2025 with ~JPY 90 billion expected in 2026.INPEX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.12T | 2.01T | 2.27T | 2.16T | 2.32T | 1.24T |
| Gross Profit | 1.25T | 1.13T | 1.35T | 1.32T | 1.38T | 675.45B |
| EBITDA | 1.46T | 1.61T | 1.52T | 1.53T | 1.55T | 867.24B |
| Net Income | 438.29B | 393.84B | 427.34B | 321.71B | 438.28B | 223.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.03T | 7.74T | 7.38T | 6.74T | 6.45T | 5.16T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 262.45B | 168.41B | 241.68B | 201.15B | 208.24B | 201.76B |
| Total Debt | 1.10T | 1.24T | 1.06T | 1.06T | 1.27T | 1.20T |
| Total Liabilities | 2.20T | 2.71T | 2.24T | 2.24T | 2.38T | 1.81T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.59T | 4.75T | 4.82T | 4.21T | 3.81T | 3.12T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 691.27B | 353.68B | 536.00B | 538.59B | 304.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 693.89B | 654.74B | 788.13B | 782.27B | 445.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -667.00B | -283.26B | -308.32B | -513.47B | -124.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -112.46B | -357.07B | -499.06B | -268.25B | -321.67B |
INPEX Technical Analysis
Negative
3120.00
Price Trends
3900.46
Negative
3900.45
Negative
3372.09
Positive
Market Momentum
-118.41
Positive
34.99
Neutral
21.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1605, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3120 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3640.20, below the 50-day MA of 3900.46, and below the 200-day MA of 3372.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -118.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:1605.
INPEX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | ¥421.17B | 7.99 | 8.62% | 2.95% | -12.53% | -33.99% | |
67 Neutral | ¥4.04T | 10.51 | 8.54% | 2.91% | -10.41% | -9.73% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | ¥1.57T | 9.10 | 2.23% | 3.07% | -11.80% | 87.51% | |
62 Neutral | ¥3.35T | 12.94 | -0.15% | 2.74% | -4.52% | 19.27% | |
59 Neutral | ¥603.27B | 8.08 | ― | 3.93% | -4.37% | 35.11% | |
57 Neutral | ¥675.08B | 10.61 | 24.31% | 0.73% | 11.58% | 87.17% |
* Energy Sector Average
JP:1605
INPEX
3,406.00
1,333.01
64.30%
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INPEX Corporate Events
INPEX Lifts 2026 Earnings Outlook on Strong Operations and Higher Oil Price Assumptions
May 13, 2026
INPEX has sharply raised its consolidated financial forecasts for the first half and full year 2026, citing stable operations at the Ichthys Project and other assets, along with updated assumptions for higher Brent crude prices and a weaker yen. T...
INPEX Flags Key Risks Around Q1 2026 Financial Disclosures
May 13, 2026
INPEX CORPORATION has released support material accompanying its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, emphasizing that the information includes forward-looking elements based on current assumptions and judgments. The compan...
INPEX Q1 Profit Falls but Dividend Outlook Raised for 2026
May 13, 2026
INPEX reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of ¥501.8 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year, with operating profit sliding 14.1% to ¥278.2 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent declining 13.4% to ¥109.4 billion. Despite so...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.