TMS Co., Ltd. (4891) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 256.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 45,485,767
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 257,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 256,913
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥155.00 ▲(20.16% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals (zero revenue, continued losses, and negative cash flow), partly offset by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages and positive MACD). Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

A zero-debt balance sheet materially reduces default and interest exposure, giving the company durable financial flexibility. This structural low leverage supports multi-month runway for R&D, strengthens negotiation power for partnerships or licensing, and lowers fixed financing costs.

Demonstrated prior cash generation

FY2022's strong net income and ~¥1.26bn operating/free cash flow demonstrate the company can generate profits and cash when programs succeed. That historical track record reduces structural execution risk and indicates the firm may have commercially viable assets or capabilities to redeploy if development milestones are met.

Improving cash burn trend

A clear reduction in cash burn over the past fiscal year shows management can tighten operations or advance programs with lower incremental spend. Sustained improvement in negative cash flow enhances runway, reduces near-term financing frequency, and preserves strategic options over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Multi-year zero revenue

No recorded revenue for multiple consecutive years signifies the company lacks commercialized product sales, leaving it dependent on financing, partnerships, or milestone payments. This structural absence of revenue elevates execution and funding risk and makes sustainability contingent on future commercialization success.

Persistent negative cash flow

Large negative OCF and FCF in FY2025 indicate ongoing funding needs and a structural cash burn problem. Continued deficits can force dilution, delay R&D or commercialization timelines, and limit strategic investments unless the company secures sustainable revenue or external financing.

Eroding equity and negative returns

Declining book equity and a roughly -23% ROE reflect cumulative losses eroding shareholder capital. This structural deterioration weakens balance sheet resilience, reduces borrowing or partnership leverage, and raises the likelihood of dilution or restructurings if profitability is not restored.

TMS Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMS Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of drug products, quasi-drugs, drug substances, medical devices, and medical commodities. The company is developing TMS-007, a stachybotrys microspora triprenyl phenol (SMTP) congener with prothrombolytic and anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities, which has completed Phase 2a clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment; and TMS-008, an SMTP congener with anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities under nonclinical development for inflammatory complications, such as acute kidney injury and cancer cachexia. It is also developing TMS-009, a product candidate in preclinical development. The company has a collaboration with Hokkaido University and Kanazawa University to evaluate the potential of the drug candidate compounds as novel drugs, as well as a joint research agreement with Teikyo University to identify biomarkers for renal function and a strategic alliance with Ji Xing Pharmaceuticals Limited. TMS Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Fuchu, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

TMS Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured by multiple years of zero reported revenue (FY2023–FY2025) alongside sizable losses and negative operating/free cash flow (FY2025 OCF -¥494m; FCF -¥525m). A key offset is a debt-free balance sheet, but declining equity and continued cash burn keep overall financial strength weak.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale have deteriorated sharply versus FY2022. Revenue is 0 in FY2023–FY2025 (annual), while losses remain large (net loss of -¥661m in FY2025 vs -¥960m in FY2024). The company posted very strong profitability in FY2022 (net income ¥1.08bn with high margins), but the subsequent multi-year swing back to deep operating losses signals high earnings volatility and an uncertain near-term path to sustainable revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with total debt reported at 0 across all periods, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined from ¥3.71bn (FY2023) to ¥2.82bn (FY2025), reflecting cumulative losses and weakening book value. Returns on equity are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 ROE about -23%), highlighting that capital is currently not generating profits despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently a headwind: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 operating cash flow -¥494m; free cash flow -¥525m). There is an improvement in cash burn from FY2024 to FY2025, but cash flow remains meaningfully negative, implying continued funding needs if the trend does not reverse. The one strong year (FY2022) showed robust positive operating and free cash flow (~¥1.26bn and ~¥1.25bn), but the post-FY2022 reversal reduces confidence in durability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95B	0.00
Gross Profit	-501.00K	-3.71M	-6.95M	-6.60M	1.95B	-4.09M
EBITDA	-1.02B	-655.89M	-937.00M	-854.88M	1.14B	-717.89M
Net Income	-699.20M	-660.55M	-960.04M	-860.92M	1.08B	-722.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.21B	3.03B	3.55B	3.79B	2.74B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.18B	2.92B	3.45B	3.58B	2.60B	1.11B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	122.98M	216.78M	97.69M	76.16M	286.78M	86.38M
Stockholders Equity	3.09B	2.82B	3.46B	3.71B	2.45B	1.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-524.60M	-826.17M	-702.14M	1.25B	-738.31M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-493.76M	-822.81M	-688.42M	1.26B	-737.81M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-30.84M	-3.36M	-13.72M	-16.96M	-499.00K
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	919.00K	688.13M	1.69B	246.48M	1.10B

TMS Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2183	52 Neutral	¥7.02B	-5.92	―	5.44%	-15.42%	-879.08%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
4891	48 Neutral	¥7.05B	-9.87	―	―	―	―
2370	46 Neutral	¥8.21B	-6.02	―	―	5.44%	-2.17%
4893	45 Neutral	¥6.40B	-8.19	―	―	-12.01%	26.66%
3750	45 Neutral	¥7.78B	-4.23	―	―	-93.79%	-1332.86%