TMS Co., Ltd. (4891) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥6.28B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 256.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 45,485,767
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 257,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 256,913
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥132.00 ▲(2.33% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance—multi-year zero revenue, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow—despite the benefit of having no reported debt. Technicals add modest pressure as the stock trades below major moving averages, while valuation provides limited support because earnings are negative and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / conservative balance sheet

Zero reported debt materially lowers solvency risk and preserves strategic optionality. Without interest burdens, management can prioritize R&D or milestone spending, extend runway during development cycles, and better withstand biotech-sector funding volatility.

Past demonstrated cash-generation ability

Robust FY2022 operating and free cash flow (~¥1.26bn) evidences the business or its assets can generate meaningful cash in the right conditions. That historical capability suggests the company has routes to monetize technology or operations if execution and market conditions improve.

Lean operating structure

A headcount of 14 indicates a lean, low-fixed-cost model that reduces ongoing cash burn while advancing development. For a pre-commercial biotech, a small team can extend runway, maintain capital efficiency, and enable focused spending on high-priority milestones.

Negative Factors

Multi-year zero revenue

Three consecutive fiscal years with zero revenue means the company lacks demonstrated commercial traction. Prolonged no-revenue periods increase execution risk for product launches or partnerships and make ongoing operations highly dependent on external financing or one-time asset monetization.

Persistent losses and capital erosion

Significant ongoing losses (FY2025 -¥661m) and falling equity signal capital erosion and negative returns on invested capital (FY2025 ROE ~-23%). This weakens balance sheet resilience, raises refinancing or dilution risk, and constrains the firm's ability to fund development internally.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Continued negative operating and free cash flow in FY2025 indicates persistent cash burn and ongoing funding needs. Even with some improvement versus prior year, sustained negative cash generation necessitates external capital or partnerships, increasing execution risk and potential shareholder dilution.

TMS Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMS Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of drug products, quasi-drugs, drug substances, medical devices, and medical commodities. The company is developing TMS-007, a stachybotrys microspora triprenyl phenol (SMTP) congener with prothrombolytic and anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities, which has completed Phase 2a clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment; and TMS-008, an SMTP congener with anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities under nonclinical development for inflammatory complications, such as acute kidney injury and cancer cachexia. It is also developing TMS-009, a product candidate in preclinical development. The company has a collaboration with Hokkaido University and Kanazawa University to evaluate the potential of the drug candidate compounds as novel drugs, as well as a joint research agreement with Teikyo University to identify biomarkers for renal function and a strategic alliance with Ji Xing Pharmaceuticals Limited. TMS Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Fuchu, Japan.

TMS Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial strength is mixed: the company has no reported debt (lower solvency risk), but operating performance is weak with zero revenue reported in FY2023–FY2025, large ongoing net losses (FY2025: -¥661m), declining equity (¥3.71bn to ¥2.82bn), and continued negative operating/free cash flow (FY2025 FCF: -¥525m).

Income Statement

Profitability and scale have deteriorated sharply versus FY2022. Revenue is 0 in FY2023–FY2025 (annual), while losses remain large (net loss of -¥661m in FY2025 vs -¥960m in FY2024). The company posted very strong profitability in FY2022 (net income ¥1.08bn with high margins), but the subsequent multi-year swing back to deep operating losses signals high earnings volatility and an uncertain near-term path to sustainable revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with total debt reported at 0 across all periods, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined from ¥3.71bn (FY2023) to ¥2.82bn (FY2025), reflecting cumulative losses and weakening book value. Returns on equity are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 ROE about -23%), highlighting that capital is currently not generating profits despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently a headwind: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 operating cash flow -¥494m; free cash flow -¥525m). There is an improvement in cash burn from FY2024 to FY2025, but cash flow remains meaningfully negative, implying continued funding needs if the trend does not reverse. The one strong year (FY2022) showed robust positive operating and free cash flow (~¥1.26bn and ~¥1.25bn), but the post-FY2022 reversal reduces confidence in durability.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2025	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95B	0.00
Gross Profit	-501.00K	-3.71M	-6.95M	-6.60M	1.74B	-4.09M
EBITDA	-1.02B	-655.89M	-937.00M	-513.55M	1.14B	-717.89M
Net Income	-699.20M	-660.55M	-960.04M	-860.92M	1.08B	-722.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.21B	3.03B	3.55B	3.79B	2.74B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.18B	2.92B	3.45B	3.58B	2.60B	1.11B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	122.98M	216.78M	97.69M	76.16M	286.78M	86.38M
Stockholders Equity	3.09B	2.82B	3.46B	3.71B	2.45B	1.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-524.60M	-826.17M	-702.14M	1.25B	-738.31M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-493.76M	-822.81M	-688.42M	1.26B	-737.81M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-30.84M	-3.36M	-13.72M	-16.96M	-499.00K
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	919.00K	688.13M	1.69B	246.48M	1.10B

TMS Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4978	56 Neutral	¥15.50B	120.78	―	―	1.24%	-33.41%
7096	56 Neutral	¥8.49B	33.49	―	―	2.99%	-52.75%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
4593	50 Neutral	¥49.28B	-13.30	―	―	-82.33%	47.73%
7776	49 Neutral	¥11.35B	-8.14	―	―	-42.49%	-2.37%
4891	45 Neutral	¥6.28B	―	―	―	―	―
4599	43 Neutral	¥17.55B	-11.30	―	―	―	11.34%

TMS Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TMS Enrolls First Japanese Patient in Global Phase II/III Stroke Trial of TMS-007

TMS Co., Ltd. said it has enrolled the first patient in the Japan cohort of the global Phase II/III ORION trial of TMS-007 (JX10), an intravenous therapy for acute ischemic stroke designed to be given between 4.5 and 24 hours after patients were last known well. The multicenter, double-blind study, sponsored globally by Corxel Pharmaceuticals, will recruit about 740 participants across more than 150 sites in over 20 countries to evaluate functional outcomes at 90 days.

TMS-007 (JX10) combines thrombolytic and anti-inflammatory mechanisms and aims to extend the treatment window beyond the current 4.5-hour standard, potentially expanding access to effective stroke care for many patients. Earlier Phase II data from Japan showed significantly improved 90-day clinical outcomes and supportive angiographic results versus placebo, positioning the ongoing ORION trial as a critical step in confirming efficacy and safety and potentially strengthening TMS’s role in the global stroke treatment market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4891) stock is a Hold with a Yen132.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMS Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4891 Stock Forecast page.

TMS Co., Ltd. Posts Continued Losses but Maintains Strong Equity Base in Shortened Fiscal Year

TMS Co., Ltd. reported non-consolidated results for an irregular 10‑month fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, posting operating, ordinary and net losses of ¥696 million, ¥711 million and ¥716 million, respectively. Despite continued losses and negative operating cash flow, the company maintained a strong equity ratio of 95.5%, net assets of ¥2,771 million and cash and cash equivalents of ¥2,781 million, supported in part by ¥640 million in financing inflows.

The company again declared no dividends for the period and forecasts a zero dividend for the year ending December 31, 2026, reflecting its priority on capital preservation and business investment over shareholder payouts. TMS has withheld earnings forecasts for 2026, citing difficulty in reasonably estimating results, which underscores ongoing uncertainty around its earnings trajectory and may prompt investors to focus on liquidity, balance sheet strength and the execution of its business plan during this transition to a new fiscal year-end.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4891) stock is a Hold with a Yen139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMS Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4891 Stock Forecast page.

TMS Posts Loss for Transitional Fiscal Year, Withheld 2026 Guidance Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

TMS Co., Ltd. reported a non-consolidated net loss of ¥716 million for the irregular 10‑month fiscal period ended December 31, 2025, following a prior-period loss, with basic earnings per share at negative ¥16.08. Despite continued operating and ordinary losses and negative operating cash flow, the company’s equity ratio rose to 95.5% and cash and cash equivalents remained robust at ¥2,781 million, though no dividends were declared for the period or forecast for 2026.

The shift in fiscal year-end to December 31 created a transitional 10‑month accounting period, complicating year-on-year comparisons and contributing to the absence of earnings guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. Management cited difficulty in reasonably estimating results for the coming year, leaving investors without a forecast and signaling ongoing uncertainty around the company’s path to profitability and future capital allocation, including dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4891) stock is a Hold with a Yen139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMS Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4891 Stock Forecast page.