TMS Co., Ltd. (4891) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 256.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 45,485,767
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 257,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 256,913
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥132.00 ▲(2.33% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/16/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (zero revenue for multiple years, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow), partially offset by a debt-free balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought readings (high RSI/Stoch) temper the outlook. Valuation signals remain challenged due to negative earnings and no stated dividend support.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

A zero-debt balance sheet materially reduces financial leverage and interest obligations, giving the company structural flexibility to fund R&D or clinical programs via equity or partnerships. This lowers bankruptcy risk and preserves strategic optionality during extended development timelines.

Improving cash burn trend

A reduction in cash burn indicates management has begun reining in operational outflows or achieving efficiencies, which can extend runway without immediate financing. Sustained improvement stabilizes execution risk and enhances the odds of reaching value-inflecting milestones over months.

Historic positive cash generation

The material positive OCF and FCF in FY2022 demonstrate the business or assets can generate meaningful cash under the right conditions, implying the company has a path back to self-sufficiency if commercial or operational inflection points are achieved, supporting long-term viability.

Negative Factors

Multi-year zero revenue

Three consecutive fiscal years with no revenue is a structural weakness: it implies products or services are not commercialized, revenue model unproven, and operating costs must be funded externally. This heightens dilution and execution risk over the medium term.

Persistent negative cash flow

Continued negative OCF and FCF erode cash reserves and necessitate external financing or asset sales. Over a multi-month horizon this constrains R&D and go-to-market investment, increases dependency on capital markets, and raises the probability of disruptive funding rounds.

Declining equity & negative returns

Material erosion of shareholders' equity and persistently negative ROE indicate capital destruction and weak return generation. This degrades balance-sheet resilience, limits borrowing capacity, and undermines investor confidence in the company's ability to compound capital over time.

TMS Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMS Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of drug products, quasi-drugs, drug substances, medical devices, and medical commodities. The company is developing TMS-007, a stachybotrys microspora triprenyl phenol (SMTP) congener with prothrombolytic and anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities, which has completed Phase 2a clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment; and TMS-008, an SMTP congener with anti-inflammatory/antioxidative activities under nonclinical development for inflammatory complications, such as acute kidney injury and cancer cachexia. It is also developing TMS-009, a product candidate in preclinical development. The company has a collaboration with Hokkaido University and Kanazawa University to evaluate the potential of the drug candidate compounds as novel drugs, as well as a joint research agreement with Teikyo University to identify biomarkers for renal function and a strategic alliance with Ji Xing Pharmaceuticals Limited. TMS Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Fuchu, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

TMS Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured by multiple years of zero reported revenue (FY2023–FY2025) alongside sizable losses and negative operating/free cash flow (FY2025 OCF -¥494m; FCF -¥525m). A key offset is a debt-free balance sheet, but declining equity and continued cash burn keep overall financial strength weak.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale have deteriorated sharply versus FY2022. Revenue is 0 in FY2023–FY2025 (annual), while losses remain large (net loss of -¥661m in FY2025 vs -¥960m in FY2024). The company posted very strong profitability in FY2022 (net income ¥1.08bn with high margins), but the subsequent multi-year swing back to deep operating losses signals high earnings volatility and an uncertain near-term path to sustainable revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with total debt reported at 0 across all periods, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined from ¥3.71bn (FY2023) to ¥2.82bn (FY2025), reflecting cumulative losses and weakening book value. Returns on equity are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 ROE about -23%), highlighting that capital is currently not generating profits despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently a headwind: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in FY2023–FY2025 (FY2025 operating cash flow -¥494m; free cash flow -¥525m). There is an improvement in cash burn from FY2024 to FY2025, but cash flow remains meaningfully negative, implying continued funding needs if the trend does not reverse. The one strong year (FY2022) showed robust positive operating and free cash flow (~¥1.26bn and ~¥1.25bn), but the post-FY2022 reversal reduces confidence in durability.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2025	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95B	0.00
Gross Profit	-501.00K	-3.71M	-6.95M	-6.60M	1.95B	-4.09M
EBITDA	-1.02B	-655.89M	-937.00M	-854.88M	1.14B	-717.89M
Net Income	-699.20M	-660.55M	-960.04M	-860.92M	1.08B	-722.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.21B	3.03B	3.55B	3.79B	2.74B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.18B	2.92B	3.45B	3.58B	2.60B	1.11B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	122.98M	216.78M	97.69M	76.16M	286.78M	86.38M
Stockholders Equity	3.09B	2.82B	3.46B	3.71B	2.45B	1.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-524.60M	-826.17M	-702.14M	1.25B	-738.31M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-493.76M	-822.81M	-688.42M	1.26B	-737.81M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-30.84M	-3.36M	-13.72M	-16.96M	-499.00K
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	919.00K	688.13M	1.69B	246.48M	1.10B

TMS Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4978	59 Neutral	¥17.82B	-54.84	―	―	1.24%	-33.41%
7096	56 Neutral	¥9.31B	48.36	―	―	2.99%	-52.75%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
4593	50 Neutral	¥59.40B	-18.92	―	―	-82.33%	47.73%
4891	49 Neutral	¥7.05B	-9.87	―	―	―	―
7776	49 Neutral	¥14.17B	-11.63	―	―	-42.49%	-2.37%
4599	43 Neutral	¥19.24B	-10.06	―	―	―	11.34%

TMS Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TMS Co., Ltd. Posts Continued Losses but Maintains Strong Equity Base in Shortened Fiscal Year

TMS Co., Ltd. reported non-consolidated results for an irregular 10‑month fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, posting operating, ordinary and net losses of ¥696 million, ¥711 million and ¥716 million, respectively. Despite continued losses and negative operating cash flow, the company maintained a strong equity ratio of 95.5%, net assets of ¥2,771 million and cash and cash equivalents of ¥2,781 million, supported in part by ¥640 million in financing inflows.

The company again declared no dividends for the period and forecasts a zero dividend for the year ending December 31, 2026, reflecting its priority on capital preservation and business investment over shareholder payouts. TMS has withheld earnings forecasts for 2026, citing difficulty in reasonably estimating results, which underscores ongoing uncertainty around its earnings trajectory and may prompt investors to focus on liquidity, balance sheet strength and the execution of its business plan during this transition to a new fiscal year-end.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4891) stock is a Hold with a Yen139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMS Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4891 Stock Forecast page.

TMS Posts Loss for Transitional Fiscal Year, Withheld 2026 Guidance Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

TMS Co., Ltd. reported a non-consolidated net loss of ¥716 million for the irregular 10‑month fiscal period ended December 31, 2025, following a prior-period loss, with basic earnings per share at negative ¥16.08. Despite continued operating and ordinary losses and negative operating cash flow, the company’s equity ratio rose to 95.5% and cash and cash equivalents remained robust at ¥2,781 million, though no dividends were declared for the period or forecast for 2026.

The shift in fiscal year-end to December 31 created a transitional 10‑month accounting period, complicating year-on-year comparisons and contributing to the absence of earnings guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. Management cited difficulty in reasonably estimating results for the coming year, leaving investors without a forecast and signaling ongoing uncertainty around the company’s path to profitability and future capital allocation, including dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4891) stock is a Hold with a Yen139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMS Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4891 Stock Forecast page.