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Rakuten Inc (JP:4755)
:4755

Rakuten (4755) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4755

Rakuten

(4755)

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Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
¥833.00
▲(0.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial quality—ongoing net losses and high leverage—despite strong revenue growth and improved operating cash flow. Technicals are also unfavorable with the stock trading below major moving averages and bearish MACD, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Ecosystem & Cross‑sell
Rakuten’s integrated ecosystem (commerce, fintech, travel, mobile) and Rakuten Points create durable cross‑sell advantages. Shared IDs and loyalty program raise customer lifetime value, support targeted ads and product bundling, and structurally deepen engagement across segments.
Strong Revenue Growth
Consistent top‑line growth with a marked 2025 acceleration indicates the business can scale demand across its platform. Durable revenue expansion supports operating leverage opportunities, investment in product and distribution, and the potential to monetize a larger user base over multiple business cycles.
Improving Cash Generation
Operating and free cash flow turned positive and stepped up materially in 2024–2025, showing the company can convert sales into cash despite accounting losses. Stronger cash generation reduces near‑term reliance on external financing and supports reinvestment or deleveraging when sustained.
Negative Factors
Persistent Net Losses
Chronic net losses and negative margins erode shareholder value and limit retained earnings as a funding source. Over time this constrains strategic flexibility, makes consistent profitability a prerequisite for equity returns, and raises sensitivity to revenue or margin setbacks.
High Leverage
A heavily debt‑funded balance sheet (debt/equity ~5–6x) materially reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest rate risk. High leverage magnifies earnings volatility, constrains capital allocation, and raises the cost of pursuing investments or absorbing shocks.
Gross Margin Pressure
A sharp gross margin decline signals weakening unit economics or adverse mix/pricing trends. Even with revenue growth, sustained margin compression undermines operating profitability and the company’s ability to scale earnings, making long‑term profit recovery more challenging.

Rakuten (4755) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Rakuten Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRakuten Group, Inc. offers internet services in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile segments. The Internet Services segment operates Rakuten Ichiba, an internet shopping mall; Rakuten Books, an online bookstore; Rakuten Travel, an internet travel site; Rakuten Gora, an online golf course reservation service; Rakuten Fashion, an online fashion store; Rakuma, a flea market app; Rakuten Rewards, which offers online cash-back services; and Rakuten 24, an internet shopping site that sells medical supplies and daily necessities. It also offers mobile messaging and VoIP, performance marketing, and e-book services. The FinTech segment issues credit cards; offers internet banking, general and life insurance, and payment services; and operates online securities trading platform. The Mobile segment provides mobile communication, optical broadband line, and power supply services. The company was formerly known as Rakuten, Inc. and changed its name to Rakuten Group, Inc. in April 2021. Rakuten Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyRakuten generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is its e-commerce platform, where it earns income from transaction fees charged to merchants for selling products on its marketplace. Additionally, Rakuten operates a loyalty program, Rakuten Super Points, which enhances customer retention and drives sales. The company also has a significant presence in fintech, generating revenue through its banking and insurance services, where it earns fees and commissions from financial products. Furthermore, Rakuten provides digital content services, including streaming and subscription services, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with major brands and expansion into international markets, also bolster its earnings.

Rakuten Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects strong growth in revenue and EBITDA, driven by improvements across several segments, particularly in Mobile and FinTech. The launch of Rakuten AI and advancements in AI initiatives showcase the company's innovation. However, challenges remain with valuation losses in the Internet Services segment, financial issues related to taxation, and a reported net loss, balancing the positive aspects with notable concerns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Growth in Revenue and EBITDA
Consolidated revenue increased by 11% YoY to JPY596.4 billion, and consolidated EBITDA increased significantly by 54.5% YoY, reaching JPY103.2 billion, marking the highest amount ever recorded for a Q2.
Strong Performance in Mobile Segment
Rakuten Mobile's stand-alone EBITDA improved by JPY19.1 billion YoY, reaching JPY5.6 billion, and the Mobile segment's revenue increased by 18.1% YoY to JPY112.1 billion.
Successful Launch of Rakuten AI
Rakuten AI was officially launched on July 30, expanding its services with the new Agentic AI service fully live across Japan, enhancing user experience.
FinTech Segment Growth
Segment revenue increased by 14.8% YoY to JPY232.7 billion, driven by expansion in Rakuten Card and Rakuten Bank.
Positive Developments in AI Initiatives
Enhancements in AI capabilities led to improved search and recommendation algorithms, resulting in significant increases in purchase volumes on Rakuten Ichiba and Rakuten Rakuma.
Negative Updates
Valuation Losses in Internet Services Segment
Non-GAAP operating income in the Internet Services segment declined by 10.5% YoY due to valuation losses on securities held in the minority investment business.
Financial Challenges Related to Taxation
Rakuten Card received a correction notice for consumption tax, resulting in JPY4.9 billion in expenses for additional taxes and delinquency charges.
Quarterly Net Loss
Despite strong revenue growth, the company reported a quarterly net loss of JPY40.1 billion, impacted by increased corporate income tax expenses and other financial factors.
Operating Income Still Negative in Mobile Segment
Despite improvements, the operating income for the Mobile segment remains negative.
Company Guidance
In the Q2 2025 call, Rakuten Group reported significant financial and operational progress across various segments. Rakuten Mobile achieved a stand-alone EBITDA of JPY5.6 billion, improving by JPY19.1 billion YoY, with a subscriber base reaching 9.08 million. The Group's consolidated revenue grew by 11% YoY to JPY596.4 billion, with notable contributions from the Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile segments, which saw revenue increases of 6.8%, 14.8%, and 18.1%, respectively. Consolidated non-GAAP operating income rose by JPY31.9 billion YoY to JPY20.1 billion, marking the first Q2 profit since FY2019. Additionally, Rakuten launched its Rakuten AI and Agentic AI platform, enhancing user experience with personalized search and AI-driven advertising optimizations. The FinTech segment saw a 10.2% YoY increase in Rakuten Card shopping GTV to JPY6.5 trillion, while Rakuten Bank's accounts surpassed 17 million, reflecting robust growth in the customer base. The Mobile segment's revenue surged by 33.5% YoY to JPY90.6 billion, with improvements in network quality and innovative packages like the Rakuten Saikyo U-Next package. The call also highlighted Rakuten's issuance of sustainability bonds as part of its financial strategy to ensure medium-term stability and growth.

Rakuten Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and improved operating momentum are offset by persistent net losses and a highly levered balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~5–6x). Cash flow has been positive recently, but volatility and weak earnings quality keep financial risk elevated.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Revenue has grown consistently over the period, with a notable acceleration in 2025 (annual growth of ~193%). However, profitability remains the key drag: net income is negative every year shown, and net margins are still meaningfully negative in 2024–2025 (~-7%). Operating performance has improved versus 2022–2023 (EBITDA margin turning solidly positive and improving into 2025), but the sharp drop in gross margin in 2025 (~4% vs ~14% in 2024) highlights pressure on unit economics and/or mix, keeping overall earnings quality weak.
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Leverage is high and persistent. Debt-to-equity sits around ~5–6x from 2022–2025, indicating a balance sheet that is heavily debt-funded relative to equity. Equity has grown modestly since 2023, but remains small compared with total debt and total assets, limiting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are deeply negative in years provided (2022–2024), reflecting that losses are eroding shareholder value and elevating refinancing and downturn risk.
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
Cash generation is a relative strength versus accounting earnings. Operating cash flow is positive in most years (except 2022), and free cash flow is positive in 2020–2021 and again in 2023–2025, with a very large step-up in 2024 and continued positive free cash flow in 2025. That said, cash flow is volatile (2022 was materially negative), and coverage of earnings is not consistently strong; 2025 shows operating cash flow covering less than 1x of reported profitability needs, reinforcing that cash conversion can swing meaningfully year to year.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.50T2.28T2.07T1.93T1.68T
Gross Profit97.41B316.29B790.31B585.31B542.63B
EBITDA417.88B289.41B146.60B-108.83B6.47B
Net Income-177.89B-162.44B-339.47B-375.91B-133.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets28.80T26.51T22.63T20.44T16.83T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.84T6.17T5.13T4.86T4.69T
Total Debt5.57T5.46T4.80T4.91T3.40T
Total Liabilities27.45T25.28T21.54T19.57T15.71T
Stockholders Equity992.40B927.87B836.57B813.73B1.09T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow277.83B947.64B373.04B-697.36B172.07B
Operating Cash Flow343.50B1.19T724.19B-257.95B582.71B
Investing Cash Flow-779.81B-921.72B-597.42B-952.41B-611.83B
Financing Cash Flow94.72B757.47B291.96B1.49T1.40T

Rakuten Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price828.10
Price Trends
50DMA
944.67
Negative
100DMA
957.19
Negative
200DMA
900.24
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-37.31
Positive
RSI
31.49
Neutral
STOCH
19.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4755, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 828.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 889.36, below the 50-day MA of 944.67, and below the 200-day MA of 900.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -37.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4755.

Rakuten Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
¥1.79T21.411.11%
66
Neutral
¥308.90B16.1411.17%2.61%5.63%25.64%
65
Neutral
¥1.01T21.7847.74%2.82%6.80%0.62%
64
Neutral
¥485.49B16.614.18%2.57%1.26%14.65%
63
Neutral
¥606.27B20.6331.11%4.83%106.29%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
41
Neutral
¥1.80T-10.07-21.14%11.45%42.34%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4755
Rakuten
828.10
-89.20
-9.72%
JP:3048
BIC Cameras
1,804.50
226.14
14.33%
JP:4385
Mercari
3,675.00
1,301.00
54.80%
JP:9843
Nitori Holdings Co
3,128.00
21.56
0.69%
JP:3092
ZOZO
1,139.00
-377.91
-24.91%
JP:9831
Yamada Denki Co
580.60
159.45
37.86%

Rakuten Corporate Events

Rakuten Grants Long-Term Retirement Stock Options to Executive Officers
Feb 12, 2026

Rakuten Group has approved the issuance of 5,981 units of share acquisition rights, representing up to 598,100 shares of common stock, as retirement compensation stock options for 49 executive officers. The zero-cost options are structured so that their value tracks Rakuten’s share price, aligning executives’ long-term incentives with shareholder returns.

The options can only be exercised within ten days after an officer retires from Rakuten or its group companies, with a 40-year overall exercise window from issuance. By linking a larger portion of senior executives’ pay to performance-based bonuses and stock price–linked options, Rakuten aims to strengthen motivation for sustained profit growth, improve stock performance, and bolster recruitment and retention of top management talent.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Grants New Stock Options to Align Staff Incentives With Shareholders
Feb 12, 2026

Rakuten Group has approved the issuance of 9,151 share acquisition rights as stock options to directors of its subsidiaries and to 67 executive officers and employees across the group, covering up to 915,100 shares of common stock. The options, which require no cash payment and carry a token exercise price of one yen per right, are structured so that a portion becomes exercisable one year after issuance and vests in stages over four years within a ten-year exercise window.

By linking compensation to the company’s share price, Rakuten aims to align management and employee interests with shareholders, enhance motivation for higher performance and stock price appreciation, and support long-term retention. The program extends beyond senior management to include a wide range of personnel, reflecting a strategy to make many employees potential shareholders and strengthen unity in building out the Rakuten Ecosystem in increasingly competitive global talent markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Halts 2025 Dividend, Extends Rakuten Mobile Perks to Shareholders
Feb 12, 2026

Rakuten Group’s board has decided not to pay a year-end dividend for the fiscal year with a record date of December 31, 2025, as it prioritizes financial soundness and the reduction of interest-bearing debt. The company says limiting cash outflows will help secure funds for growth investments, stabilize its balance sheet and ultimately enhance shareholder value, while maintaining a long-term policy of stable, continuous dividends and targeting a resumption after improving consolidated results.

To offset the lack of cash dividends, Rakuten will again provide a shareholder benefit program, offering eligible investors a six-month free Rakuten Mobile voice and data plan with 30 GB per month and renewal eligibility. By extending this perk, the group aims to reward shareholder loyalty and promote deeper use and understanding of Rakuten Mobile, a core strategic business that has surpassed 10 million subscribers and is investing in network quality, including its new platinum band service.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Lifts Revenue and EBITDA but Deeper Net Loss Highlights Balance-Sheet Strain
Feb 12, 2026

Rakuten Group reported a 9.5% rise in revenue to ¥2.50 trillion for fiscal 2025, but operating income dropped 72.9% to ¥14.4 billion and the company swung to an income-before-tax loss of ¥29.6 billion, with net income attributable to owners deepening to a ¥177.9 billion loss. Despite this, EBITDA jumped 33.7% to ¥435.9 billion, indicating stronger cash-flow generation, while total assets grew to ¥28.8 trillion and the equity ratio remained thin at about 3–5%, underscoring continued balance-sheet pressure even as cash and cash equivalents stayed high at ¥5.84 trillion after sizable investing outflows and modest financing inflows.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten lifts revenue and core profits in 2025 but net loss deepens
Feb 12, 2026

Rakuten reported consolidated revenue of ¥2.50 trillion for fiscal 2025, up 9.5% year-on-year, with all major segments – Internet Services, FinTech and Mobile – posting higher sales and stronger underlying profitability. Despite this top-line growth and a sharp rise in Non-GAAP operating income, the company’s net loss attributable to shareholders widened to ¥177.89 billion, reflecting financial expenses, losses from affiliates and higher tax costs.

Internet Services profits rose even after valuation losses on minority stakes, supported by steady gains at Rakuten Ichiba, Rakuten Travel and overseas operations. FinTech delivered significant profit growth, buoyed by higher interest income at Rakuten Bank after the Bank of Japan’s rate hike and record earnings at Rakuten Securities on expanding customer numbers and favorable markets.

In the Mobile segment, increased subscribers and higher data ARPU reduced losses and produced the first full-year positive EBITDA since Rakuten entered the carrier business, underscoring improving economics in a once-heavily loss-making unit. However, IFRS operating profit fell 72.9% to ¥14.38 billion due mainly to the absence of a large one-off remeasurement gain booked in 2024, though management highlighted that, excluding this factor, core profitability and the group’s ability to generate stable profits have strengthened.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Flags Asset Impairments but Books Derivative Gains for FY2025
Feb 10, 2026

Rakuten Group, Inc. said it expects to book significant impairment losses on fixed assets tied to its Rakuten Symphony Open RAN and logistics businesses in its consolidated results for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company cited slower-than-expected growth in the Open RAN unit and lower effective warehouse capacity due to delayed cargo volume growth and larger product sizes as key factors behind the write-downs.

At the same time, Rakuten anticipates sizable valuation gains on currency swap derivatives linked to its foreign currency-denominated undated subordinated notes, which will bolster financial income in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overall, the combination of impairment charges and derivative gains will reshape the company’s expense and income mix for the fiscal year, with further details to be disclosed when full-year results are announced on February 12.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Securities Posts Strong Profit Growth in Fiscal 2025
Jan 27, 2026

Rakuten Securities, Inc. reported strong growth for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising to ¥158.3 billion and net income increasing to ¥21.7 billion, up from ¥130.1 billion and ¥16.1 billion, respectively, in the previous year. The improved profitability, seen in higher operating and ordinary income, underscores the subsidiary’s expanding contribution to Rakuten Group’s overall financial performance ahead of the parent company’s consolidated results announcement in February 2026, and highlights the robustness of its securities business under Japan’s uniform industry accounting standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Buy with a Yen1110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Issues New Stock Options to Align Employee Incentives and Bolster Talent Retention
Jan 15, 2026

Rakuten Group has approved the issuance of 50,314 share acquisition rights (stock options), covering up to 5,031,400 common shares, to directors of subsidiaries and to about 15,600 executive officers and employees across the group. The options, granted without cash payment as part of a performance-linked compensation scheme, are structured to become exercisable gradually from one year after issuance over a four-year period and remain exercisable for up to ten years, aiming to align employee interests with shareholders, enhance long-term performance and stock-price motivation, support retention, and strengthen recruitment in competitive talent markets by making a broad base of staff potential shareholders and reinforcing unity around expanding the Rakuten Ecosystem globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Sell with a Yen883.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Announces Shareholder Benefits with Free Mobile Service
Dec 12, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. has announced a shareholder benefit program for the 29th fiscal year, offering qualified shareholders a six-month free subscription to its Rakuten Mobile service, with an option for an additional six months if certain conditions are met. This initiative aims to express gratitude to shareholders and provide them with a deeper understanding of Rakuten Mobile, a key business area for the company, thereby potentially strengthening shareholder engagement and loyalty.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Hold with a Yen950.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026