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Rakuten (JP:4755)
:4755

Rakuten (4755) AI Stock Analysis

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Rakuten

(OTC:4755)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
¥808.00
▲(0.39%Upside)
Rakuten's overall stock score is influenced by moderate financial performance with high leverage risks, bearish technical indicators, and valuation concerns due to negative earnings. However, the earnings call reveals strong revenue growth and strategic advancements, particularly in Internet Services and FinTech, supporting a more favorable outlook.

Rakuten (4755) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Rakuten Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRakuten, Inc. is a global leader in internet services, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Established in 1997, the company operates across various sectors including e-commerce, fintech, digital content, and communications. Rakuten's core services include its flagship e-commerce platform, Rakuten Ichiba, as well as Rakuten Viber, Rakuten TV, and a suite of financial services such as credit cards, banking, and insurance. The company's diverse portfolio is designed to empower individuals and businesses through innovative digital solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyRakuten generates revenue through a multifaceted business model that includes e-commerce transactions, financial services, and digital content. Its e-commerce platform, Rakuten Ichiba, charges merchants fees for listing products and takes a commission on sales. In the fintech sector, Rakuten earns money from interest on loans, transaction fees from its credit card services, and financial product sales. The company also monetizes its digital content services through subscriptions and advertisements. Additionally, Rakuten's telecommunications arm, which includes mobile and internet services, contributes to its revenue through customer subscriptions and usage fees. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with other businesses further enhance Rakuten's earnings by expanding its market reach and service offerings.

Rakuten Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance with record revenues and significant growth in major segments like Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile. AI initiatives show promising results in operational efficiency. However, there are challenges in the Mobile segment churn rates and potential impacts from tariff policies.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Consolidated Revenue
Consolidated revenue for the first quarter reached JPY 562.7 billion, marking a record high with a 9.6% increase year-on-year.
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA was JPY 79.9 billion, achieving a 51.4% increase year-on-year. Non-FinTech EBITDA turned positive at JPY 20 billion.
AI Initiatives
Over 13,000 employees are utilizing Rakuten AI, with more than 16,000 custom AIs created, delivering results in advertising, UX personalization, coding, and sales support.
Internet Services Segment Growth
Revenue reached JPY 305.5 billion, a 6.9% year-on-year increase with a 25.8% increase in non-GAAP operating income.
FinTech Segment Success
Revenue reached JPY 223.6 billion, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with a 21.7% increase in non-GAAP operating income.
Mobile Segment Profitability
The Mobile segment achieved a quarterly EBITDA profit of JPY 102 million, with revenue increasing by 10.9% year-on-year.
Rakuten Mobile Subscriber Growth
Total subscribers reached 8.63 million, with a net increase of approximately 300,000 in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Mobile Segment Challenges
Adjusted churn rate increased during the spring sales season, particularly in March, due to increased incentives by competitors.
Impact of Tariff Policies
Tariff policies affected Rakuten Rewards and advertisement business, and potential impacts on fintech and stock trading are noted.
Legacy Insurance Contracts
Non-life insurance losses continue due to legacy contracts, though recent online sales are performing well.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Rakuten Group reported significant financial achievements and strategic advancements. The company reached a record high consolidated revenue of JPY 562.7 billion, a 9.6% year-on-year increase, with EBITDA rising 51.4% to JPY 79.9 billion. Rakuten Mobile achieved its first quarterly EBITDA profit of JPY 102 million, excluding fixed asset tax, and the mobile subscriber base expanded significantly, contributing to 181,000 new ecosystem users. The Internet Services segment saw a 6.9% revenue increase to JPY 305.5 billion, driven by a 3% rise in domestic EC gross merchandise sales to JPY 1.4 trillion. FinTech revenue grew 15.6% to JPY 223.6 billion, with Rakuten Card's transaction volume increasing by 12.8% to JPY 6.3 trillion. The company is leveraging AI through initiatives like the Triple 20 program, with 13,000 employees utilizing Rakuten AI for Rakutenians and 16,000 custom AIs developed. These efforts aim to enhance operational efficiency by 20% and improve customer experience across platforms. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Rakuten remains confident in its financial targets, focusing on sustainable growth and high returns through strategic investments and technological integration.

Rakuten Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rakuten's revenue growth and improving cash flow metrics are positive indicators. However, persistent net losses and high leverage present significant risks, necessitating a focus on profitability and debt management.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Rakuten has shown consistent revenue growth, with a 10.03% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company has been struggling with profitability, reflected in its net profit margin remaining negative over the years, at -7.13% in 2024. The EBIT margin improved to 2.32% in 2024 from negative values in previous years, indicating a positive trend, but the net losses are a concern.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Rakuten's balance sheet indicates high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.89 in 2024, posing potential risks. Stockholders' equity shows an improvement, and the equity ratio stands at 3.50% in 2024, which is still low, indicating reliance on debt for financing. However, the company's asset base has been growing steadily.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive trend in free cash flow, with a substantial growth rate of 153.96% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, indicating improved liquidity.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.33T2.28T2.07T1.93T1.68T1.46T
Gross Profit
308.82B316.29B790.31B609.93B542.63B562.57B
EBIT
86.39B52.98B-163.64B-251.01B-173.99B-71.41B
EBITDA
443.66B450.82B146.60B1.18B6.47B52.07B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-193.52B-162.44B-339.47B-375.91B-135.83B-115.84B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.92T6.17T5.24T4.69T4.41T3.02T
Total Assets
25.08T26.51T22.63T20.44T16.83T12.52T
Total Debt
5.25T5.46T4.80T4.91T3.40T2.49T
Net Debt
331.67B-709.17B-332.50B218.39B-1.01T-533.85B
Total Liabilities
23.94T25.28T21.54T19.57T15.71T11.90T
Stockholders Equity
818.15B927.87B836.57B813.73B1.09T608.74B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
174.09B947.64B373.04B-697.36B172.07B656.32B
Operating Cash Flow
283.04B1.19T724.19B-257.95B582.71B1.04T
Investing Cash Flow
-1.02T-921.72B-597.42B-952.41B-611.83B-303.35B
Financing Cash Flow
286.04B757.47B291.96B1.49T1.40T808.11B

Rakuten Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price804.90
Price Trends
50DMA
813.08
Negative
100DMA
876.07
Negative
200DMA
899.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.82
Positive
RSI
46.92
Neutral
STOCH
48.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4755, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 804.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 816.77, below the 50-day MA of 813.08, and below the 200-day MA of 899.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4755.

Rakuten Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$1.40T30.3348.74%2.19%8.18%36.67%
76
Outperform
$146.31B16.2911.70%2.58%3.87%-50.88%
75
Outperform
$406.06B24.8521.33%3.01%-2.84%
73
Outperform
¥1.41T51.1028.00%0.87%14.03%23.40%
68
Neutral
$363.74B11.184.20%2.81%2.33%11.91%
62
Neutral
$6.83B11.282.95%3.88%2.70%-24.56%
50
Neutral
¥1.73T-22.97%10.38%38.09%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4755
Rakuten
804.90
-34.10
-4.06%
JP:4385
Mercari
2,600.00
477.00
22.47%
JP:2678
ASKUL
1,558.00
-568.29
-26.73%
JP:3064
MonotaRO Co
2,818.50
1,190.82
73.16%
JP:3092
ZOZO
1,548.00
323.67
26.44%
JP:9831
Yamada Denki Co
435.10
13.08
3.10%

Rakuten Corporate Events

Rakuten Group Announces Subsidiary Merger to Boost Efficiency
May 14, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. announced a merger of its subsidiaries, including Rakuten Mart, Rakuten Ticket, Rakuten Car, Rakuten STAY, and Monzen Corporation Japan, effective January 1, 2026. This merger aims to reduce administrative costs and improve operational efficiency, aligning with Rakuten’s strategy to enhance cost efficiency through AI and expand the Rakuten Ecosystem. The merger will not involve new share issuance or payments, as it involves wholly-owned subsidiaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Hold with a Yen930.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results: Revenue Growth Amidst Net Income Loss
May 14, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a revenue increase of 9.6% year-on-year to 562,704 million yen. Despite the revenue growth, the company faced a net income loss of 73,471 million yen, reflecting ongoing financial challenges. The company’s EBITDA saw a significant rise of 51.4% to 79,889 million yen, indicating strong cash flow generation capabilities. However, the total equity and equity ratio experienced a slight decline, highlighting potential concerns about financial stability. The dividend per share for the fiscal year 2025 remains undecided, maintaining the previously disclosed forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4755) stock is a Hold with a Yen930.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rakuten stock, see the JP:4755 Stock Forecast page.

Rakuten Securities Reports Positive Q1 2025 Financial Results
Apr 30, 2025

Rakuten Securities, Inc., a subsidiary of Rakuten Group, reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a rise in operating revenue and income compared to the previous year. This financial performance indicates a positive trajectory for the company, potentially strengthening its position in the securities market and providing value to its stakeholders.

Rakuten Issues Share Options to Align Employee and Shareholder Interests
Apr 15, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. has announced the issuance of share options to its directors, executive officers, and employees as part of a performance-linked compensation package. This initiative aims to align the interests of the employees with shareholders by linking compensation to stock price performance, thereby motivating higher performance and retention of talent. The staged exercisability of these share options is designed to attract and retain skilled personnel, especially in competitive markets, while fostering a sense of unity and commitment to enhancing the company’s value.

Rakuten Issues Share Options to Align Executive Compensation with Performance
Apr 15, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. announced the issuance of share acquisition rights as retirement compensation for directors who also serve as executive officers. This initiative is designed to align the interests of the officers with shareholders by linking compensation to stock performance, thereby motivating higher performance and retention of talent. The share options can be exercised within ten days of retirement, aiming to enhance long-term corporate and shareholder value.

Rakuten Group’s Diversified Business Strategy and Market Positioning
Mar 28, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. has outlined its extensive business operations and strategic focus in its articles of incorporation. The company is involved in numerous sectors, ranging from telecommunications and financial services to real estate and entertainment, indicating its broad market presence and diversified business model. This strategic diversification is likely to enhance its market positioning and provide resilience against sector-specific downturns, benefiting stakeholders by potentially increasing stability and growth opportunities.

Rakuten Group’s Commitment to Diversity and Strategic Investment
Mar 28, 2025

Rakuten Group, Inc. emphasizes corporate governance with a focus on diversity and non-discrimination, adopting measures such as English as the official language and support for LGBTQ+ employees. The company classifies its investment shares based on their purpose, ensuring that investments contribute to shareholder value and are regularly reviewed by the Investment Committee.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.