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MonotaRO Co Ltd (JP:3064)
:3064

MonotaRO Co (3064) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3064

MonotaRO Co

(3064)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,956.00
▲(2.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
Solid fundamentals (growth and profitability with modest leverage) are the primary positive driver, but the overall score is pulled down by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with modest yield). Cash-flow variability versus earnings is the key fundamental risk to monitor.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Sales scale across 2020–2025 with re-acceleration in 2025 indicates durable demand for MRO consumables. A broad SKU assortment and repeat purchase dynamics support persistent revenue growth, enabling scale economies, stronger supplier terms, and reinvestment for platform improvements over months.
Improving Profitability and Margins
A rebound in gross margin and expanding operating/net margins in 2025 point to improving unit economics and pricing or cost management. Sustained margin improvement boosts return on capital and cash generation capacity, strengthening the business's ability to invest in logistics and customer experience long term.
Conservative Capital Structure
Modest leverage and material equity growth provide financial flexibility to fund logistics, inventory, or platform initiatives without heavy refinancing risk. A generally conservative balance sheet supports resilience through demand cycles and preserves capacity for strategic investments over months.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Cash Conversion
Operating cash flow lagging reported earnings and swinging free cash flow reduce the reliability of reported profits as funding for operations or returns. Working-capital or investment timing can create material year-to-year volatility, complicating planning and constraining predictable reinvestment.
Volatile Reported Debt Levels
episodic shifts in net debt suggest reliance on short-term borrowing or one-off financing, which can increase refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Such variability undermines confidence in leverage stability and could limit strategic flexibility if higher debt persists.
Margin Sensitivity to Cost/Price Pressure
Intermittent margin compression shows the business remains exposed to input cost swings or competitive pricing in MRO distribution. This structural sensitivity can erode profitability during supply-cost inflation or heightened competition, reducing earnings durability absent offsetting pricing power or efficiency gains.

MonotaRO Co (3064) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

MonotaRO Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMonotaRO Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates an online MRO products store in Japan and internationally. It offers products in various categories, such as safety protection equipment, work clothes, and safety shoes; logistics, storage, and packing supplies; tapes; safety supplies/safety signs; office supplies; office furniture/lighting/cleaning supplies; cutting tools/abrasives; measurement/surveying supplies; work/electric/pneumatic tools; spray/oil/grease/paint/adhesion/repair/welding supplies; and agricultural materials/gardening supplies. The company also provides building hardware products, building materials, and painting interior supplies; air conditioning/electrical equipment materials/electrical materials; piping/water supply/pump/pneumatic/hydraulic equipment/hose products; mechanical parts; control equipment/solder/static electricity countermeasure supplies; screws/bolts/nails/materials; car/truck supplies; motorcycle/bicycle supplies; kitchen equipment/kitchen products/store supplies; scientific research and development/clean room supplies; and medical/long-term care products. It serves factories, construction, automobile maintenance, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Sumisho Grainger Co., Ltd. and changed its name to MonotaRO Co., Ltd. in 2006. MonotaRO Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Amagasaki, Japan. MonotaRO Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Grainger Global Holdings, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyMonotaRO primarily makes money by selling MRO and industrial consumable products through its e-commerce platform. Its core revenue stream is product sales: the company sources goods from manufacturers and distributors and resells them to customers, earning gross profit on the spread between procurement costs and selling prices. Revenue is supported by (i) a wide SKU assortment that drives repeat purchasing of consumables and replacement items, (ii) direct-to-customer fulfillment enabled by logistics operations that allow it to process and ship orders efficiently, and (iii) customer acquisition and retention via its online catalog/search experience and marketing that encourages repeat orders. Additional revenue streams (e.g., membership fees, advertising/marketplace fees, or service income) are null because such specifics are not available in the provided context.

MonotaRO Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and improving profitability with steady revenue growth and a generally conservative balance sheet. The main offset is inconsistent cash conversion versus earnings and volatile free cash flow, which reduces overall fundamental quality despite solid income statement and ROE.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Revenue has scaled steadily from 2020–2025, with growth re-accelerating in 2025 after a slower 2024. Profitability is strong and improving: gross margin rebounded in 2025 and operating profitability has expanded over time, with 2025 showing solid operating and net margins. The main watch-out is that margins have not risen in a straight line (notably a softer gross margin in 2024), indicating some sensitivity to pricing or cost pressure even within an overall strong trajectory.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks conservative overall, supported by a low debt burden versus equity across the period and a high return on equity, indicating efficient capital use. A key weakness is volatility in reported debt levels (very low in 2024 but much higher again in 2025), which reduces visibility into capital structure consistency. Still, leverage remains modest and equity has grown materially, supporting financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
64
Positive
Cash generation is positive and free cash flow is meaningful in most years, including a strong 2024. However, cash conversion has been inconsistent: operating cash flow has frequently trailed net income (and fell notably in 2022 and again in 2025 versus 2024), and free cash flow has swung sharply (very weak in 2021–2022, then recovering). Overall, the business produces cash, but working-capital or investment needs can create material year-to-year volatility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue308.95B333.88B288.12B254.29B225.97B189.73B
Gross Profit89.33B99.64B78.68B70.95B65.44B54.05B
EBITDA47.67B52.88B42.83B36.33B29.78B26.27B
Net Income29.26B32.43B26.34B21.81B18.66B17.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets165.83B193.24B145.80B129.18B112.16B95.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.77B47.29B30.73B18.64B8.89B12.38B
Total Debt10.30B13.99B1.34B5.81B10.29B9.62B
Total Liabilities51.59B70.31B41.53B42.20B39.53B35.50B
Stockholders Equity113.63B122.52B103.70B86.46B72.14B59.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.0021.79B27.34B24.08B6.02B2.61B
Operating Cash Flow0.0033.73B28.66B29.93B15.48B12.26B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-17.09B-3.58B-7.95B-12.54B-14.08B
Financing Cash Flow0.0027.00M-13.34B-12.16B-5.51B-5.98B

MonotaRO Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1905.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2068.95
Negative
100DMA
2179.09
Negative
200DMA
2350.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-83.06
Positive
RSI
33.59
Neutral
STOCH
1.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3064, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1905 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1933.90, below the 50-day MA of 2068.95, and below the 200-day MA of 2350.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -83.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3064.

MonotaRO Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥121.58B6.217.75%3.63%17.43%248.12%
67
Neutral
¥110.00B21.462.08%5.33%13.54%
66
Neutral
¥291.01B14.9811.17%2.61%5.63%25.64%
64
Neutral
¥105.22B-4.5810.61%2.67%1.69%-57.32%
62
Neutral
¥868.61B38.3128.71%1.03%14.16%26.13%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
41
Neutral
¥1.58T-12.21-21.14%11.45%42.34%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3064
MonotaRO Co
1,748.00
-920.83
-34.50%
JP:4755
Rakuten
727.80
-167.70
-18.73%
JP:2678
ASKUL
1,173.00
-405.99
-25.71%
JP:9832
Autobacs Seven Co
1,560.00
111.42
7.69%
JP:3048
BIC Cameras
1,700.00
163.07
10.61%
JP:9842
ARCLANDS CORPORATION
1,765.00
126.96
7.75%

MonotaRO Co Corporate Events

MonotaRO posts strong February sales growth and steady customer gains
Mar 10, 2026

MonotaRO reported non-consolidated February 2026 sales of ¥28.45 billion, up 17.3% year on year, following 23.7% growth in January, underscoring continued strong momentum in its core online MRO distribution business. Newly acquired customer accounts reached 92,100 in February, after 100,800 in January, indicating sustained expansion of the customer base, while management noted that monthly revenue figures are preliminary and include overseas royalty income at quarter-end months.

The company operated 18 working days in February, unchanged from the prior year, suggesting that sales growth was driven by higher demand and customer activity rather than calendar effects. The robust start to 2026, with double-digit revenue growth and solid new account acquisition, signals ongoing scaling of MonotaRO’s platform and reinforces its competitive positioning in Japan’s industrial e-commerce segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
Mar 2, 2026

MonotaRO has disclosed progress on its ongoing share buyback program, reporting the purchase of 1,490,800 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 4 and February 28, 2026, for a total outlay of about ¥3.11 billion. This activity forms part of a broader board-approved repurchase plan authorizing buybacks of up to 8 million shares or ¥10 billion through the end of 2026, signaling continued efforts to optimize capital structure and return value to shareholders, though the current purchases still represent only a portion of the approved ceiling.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2099.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Posts 23.7% January Sales Growth as Customer Base Expands
Feb 10, 2026

MonotaRO reported non-consolidated January 2026 sales of ¥29.7 billion, a 23.7% increase year on year, indicating robust demand and continued expansion of its e-commerce MRO platform. The company also added about 100,800 new customer accounts in the month, underscoring strong customer acquisition momentum that could support sustained revenue growth and reinforce its competitive position in industrial supply distribution.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2265.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Delivers Double-Digit Profit Growth and Hikes Dividend as Cash Position Strengthens
Feb 3, 2026

MonotaRO reported strong results for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025, with net sales rising 15.9% year-on-year to ¥333.9 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent climbing 23.1% to ¥32.4 billion, driven by improved operating margin and robust demand for its MRO product lineup. Operating cash flow increased to ¥33.7 billion and year-end cash and equivalents expanded to ¥47.0 billion despite higher investment outflows, while total assets and net assets both grew, even as the equity ratio declined to 63.4% amid balance sheet expansion. The company significantly lifted its shareholder returns, raising the annual dividend from ¥19.0 to ¥33.0 per share for 2025, implying a higher payout ratio, and is guiding further growth in 2026 with forecast full-year sales of ¥381.4 billion, net income of ¥36.2 billion and a planned annual dividend of ¥37.0 per share, underscoring management’s confidence in continued business expansion and earnings momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Hikes Year-End Dividend Forecast on Better-Than-Expected Earnings
Feb 3, 2026

MonotaRO has revised its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ended December 2025, announcing a higher year-end dividend after earnings surpassed prior expectations. In line with its policy of returning at least 50% of net income attributable to owners of the parent through dividends, the company will raise the year-end payout by ¥2 from the previous forecast to ¥18 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to ¥33 per share, up sharply from ¥19 in the prior fiscal year, signaling stronger profitability and an enhanced return to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Launches ¥10 Billion Share Buyback and Cancellation to Boost Capital Efficiency
Feb 3, 2026

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. has approved a share buyback of up to 8 million shares, representing about 1.61% of its issued shares (excluding treasury stock), with a total purchase value capped at 10 billion yen, to be conducted through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 4 and December 30, 2026. All shares repurchased under this program are scheduled to be cancelled at a later date, a move aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and improving capital efficiency, which could support earnings per share and signal management’s confidence in the company’s long-term corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Posts 30% December Sales Surge and Strong Customer Growth in 2025
Jan 13, 2026

MonotaRO reported strong non-consolidated monthly sales for December 2025, with revenue reaching ¥31.39 billion, a 29.9% increase year on year, capping a full year of double-digit monthly growth. Customer acquisition also remained robust, with 108,800 new accounts added in December and consistently high monthly sign-ups throughout 2025, indicating sustained expansion of its user base and reinforcing its competitive position in Japan’s online MRO supply market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 12, 2026