MonotaRO Co (3064) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.03T
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 14.16%
• EPS Growth: 26.13%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,432
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 18.01
• Shares Outstanding: 501,361,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,635,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,951,856
• PEG Ratio: 1.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 57.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,300.00
• Price Target Upside: -8.87% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 75.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥374.00B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,099.00 ▼(-16.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (steady growth, solid margins, and generally conservative leverage), but it is held back by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation that looks demanding due to the elevated P/E despite a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Trajectory

Consistent multi-year revenue scaling, including a re-acceleration in 2025, indicates durable market demand and successful customer penetration in the MRO segment. This supports sustainable top-line expansion, capacity to reinvest in logistics/catalog, and a stronger base for margin improvement over the medium term.

Platform-led MRO Business Model

A large SKU assortment plus direct-to-customer fulfillment creates recurring purchase behavior for consumables and replacement parts. That business-model durability supports high customer lifetime value, predictable reorder patterns, and competitive advantage versus fragmented offline suppliers, underpinning steady revenue and margin resilience.

Conservative Capital Structure

A generally conservative balance sheet with modest leverage and high ROE provides financial flexibility for investment, working-capital needs, and potential M&A. Lower structural leverage reduces refinancing risk and supports resilience through demand cycles, preserving the company's ability to fund long-term growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Cash Conversion

Operating cash flow has frequently lagged reported net income and free cash flow has swung materially across years. That volatility, driven by working-capital and investment timing, can constrain reinvestment pacing, complicate forecasting, and elevate the risk that growth initiatives require external financing during weaker cash years.

Margin Sensitivity

Gross and operating margins have improved overall but showed sensitivity to cost or pricing shifts (notably a softer gross margin in 2024). This indicates limited insulation from supplier or input-cost volatility, which could cap sustainable margin expansion unless the company strengthens pricing power or cost control over time.

Debt Volatility Reduces Visibility

Reported debt swings across years weaken clarity around long-term capital structure and financing strategy. Even with modest leverage overall, volatility raises uncertainty about reliance on short-term financing or one-off adjustments, which can complicate liquidity planning and increase perceived refinancing or covenant risks.

MonotaRO Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MonotaRO Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates an online MRO products store in Japan and internationally. It offers products in various categories, such as safety protection equipment, work clothes, and safety shoes; logistics, storage, and packing supplies; tapes; safety supplies/safety signs; office supplies; office furniture/lighting/cleaning supplies; cutting tools/abrasives; measurement/surveying supplies; work/electric/pneumatic tools; spray/oil/grease/paint/adhesion/repair/welding supplies; and agricultural materials/gardening supplies. The company also provides building hardware products, building materials, and painting interior supplies; air conditioning/electrical equipment materials/electrical materials; piping/water supply/pump/pneumatic/hydraulic equipment/hose products; mechanical parts; control equipment/solder/static electricity countermeasure supplies; screws/bolts/nails/materials; car/truck supplies; motorcycle/bicycle supplies; kitchen equipment/kitchen products/store supplies; scientific research and development/clean room supplies; and medical/long-term care products. It serves factories, construction, automobile maintenance, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Sumisho Grainger Co., Ltd. and changed its name to MonotaRO Co., Ltd. in 2006. MonotaRO Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Amagasaki, Japan. MonotaRO Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Grainger Global Holdings, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

MonotaRO generates revenue primarily through its online sales of industrial and maintenance products. The company employs a direct-to-consumer business model, allowing customers to purchase goods directly from its platform. Key revenue streams include sales from a vast selection of products, subscription services for premium users, and value-added services like same-day delivery. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with various manufacturers and suppliers, which enables it to offer competitive pricing and a diverse product range. The scalability of its e-commerce operations, coupled with a focus on customer service and satisfaction, contributes significantly to its earnings.

MonotaRO Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling and improving profitability support a high fundamentals score, and the balance sheet is generally conservative with modest leverage and strong ROE. The main offset is cash-flow variability versus reported profits, with inconsistent cash conversion and notable year-to-year swings in free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled steadily from 2020–2025, with growth re-accelerating in 2025 after a slower 2024. Profitability is strong and improving: gross margin rebounded in 2025 and operating profitability has expanded over time, with 2025 showing solid operating and net margins. The main watch-out is that margins have not risen in a straight line (notably a softer gross margin in 2024), indicating some sensitivity to pricing or cost pressure even within an overall strong trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative overall, supported by a low debt burden versus equity across the period and a high return on equity, indicating efficient capital use. A key weakness is volatility in reported debt levels (very low in 2024 but much higher again in 2025), which reduces visibility into capital structure consistency. Still, leverage remains modest and equity has grown materially, supporting financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and free cash flow is meaningful in most years, including a strong 2024. However, cash conversion has been inconsistent: operating cash flow has frequently trailed net income (and fell notably in 2022 and again in 2025 versus 2024), and free cash flow has swung sharply (very weak in 2021–2022, then recovering). Overall, the business produces cash, but working-capital or investment needs can create material year-to-year volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	308.95B	333.88B	288.12B	254.29B	225.97B	189.73B
Gross Profit	91.11B	99.64B	78.68B	75.97B	65.44B	54.05B
EBITDA	47.69B	52.87B	43.01B	35.88B	29.14B	26.27B
Net Income	29.26B	32.43B	26.34B	21.81B	18.66B	17.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	165.83B	193.24B	145.03B	128.35B	111.74B	95.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.77B	47.29B	30.73B	18.64B	8.89B	12.38B
Total Debt	11.28B	13.99B	1.34B	5.81B	10.29B	9.62B
Total Liabilities	51.59B	70.31B	40.76B	41.37B	39.12B	35.51B
Stockholders Equity	113.63B	122.52B	103.70B	86.46B	72.14B	59.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	21.79B	27.34B	21.97B	3.98B	257.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	33.73B	28.66B	29.93B	15.48B	12.26B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-17.09B	-3.58B	-8.40B	-12.54B	-14.29B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	27.00M	-13.34B	-11.71B	-5.51B	-5.77B

MonotaRO Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2524.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3064, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2524 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2094.40, above the 50-day MA of 2240.42, and above the 200-day MA of 2434.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -44.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3064.

MonotaRO Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9832	75 Outperform	¥138.49B	15.15	7.75%	3.63%	17.43%	248.12%
9842	71 Outperform	¥121.90B	16.37	―	2.08%	5.33%	13.54%
3048	66 Neutral	¥308.90B	16.14	11.17%	2.61%	5.63%	25.64%
2678	64 Neutral	¥116.88B	-73.98	10.61%	2.67%	1.69%	-57.32%
3064	63 Neutral	¥1.03T	31.87	28.71%	1.03%	14.16%	26.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
4755	41 Neutral	$1.80T	-10.07	-21.14%	―	11.45%	42.34%

MonotaRO Co Corporate Events

MonotaRO Posts 23.7% January Sales Growth as Customer Base Expands

MonotaRO reported non-consolidated January 2026 sales of ¥29.7 billion, a 23.7% increase year on year, indicating robust demand and continued expansion of its e-commerce MRO platform. The company also added about 100,800 new customer accounts in the month, underscoring strong customer acquisition momentum that could support sustained revenue growth and reinforce its competitive position in industrial supply distribution.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2265.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Delivers Double-Digit Profit Growth and Hikes Dividend as Cash Position Strengthens

MonotaRO reported strong results for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025, with net sales rising 15.9% year-on-year to ¥333.9 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent climbing 23.1% to ¥32.4 billion, driven by improved operating margin and robust demand for its MRO product lineup. Operating cash flow increased to ¥33.7 billion and year-end cash and equivalents expanded to ¥47.0 billion despite higher investment outflows, while total assets and net assets both grew, even as the equity ratio declined to 63.4% amid balance sheet expansion. The company significantly lifted its shareholder returns, raising the annual dividend from ¥19.0 to ¥33.0 per share for 2025, implying a higher payout ratio, and is guiding further growth in 2026 with forecast full-year sales of ¥381.4 billion, net income of ¥36.2 billion and a planned annual dividend of ¥37.0 per share, underscoring management’s confidence in continued business expansion and earnings momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Hikes Year-End Dividend Forecast on Better-Than-Expected Earnings

MonotaRO has revised its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ended December 2025, announcing a higher year-end dividend after earnings surpassed prior expectations. In line with its policy of returning at least 50% of net income attributable to owners of the parent through dividends, the company will raise the year-end payout by ¥2 from the previous forecast to ¥18 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to ¥33 per share, up sharply from ¥19 in the prior fiscal year, signaling stronger profitability and an enhanced return to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Launches ¥10 Billion Share Buyback and Cancellation to Boost Capital Efficiency

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. has approved a share buyback of up to 8 million shares, representing about 1.61% of its issued shares (excluding treasury stock), with a total purchase value capped at 10 billion yen, to be conducted through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 4 and December 30, 2026. All shares repurchased under this program are scheduled to be cancelled at a later date, a move aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and improving capital efficiency, which could support earnings per share and signal management’s confidence in the company’s long-term corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.

MonotaRO Posts 30% December Sales Surge and Strong Customer Growth in 2025

MonotaRO reported strong non-consolidated monthly sales for December 2025, with revenue reaching ¥31.39 billion, a 29.9% increase year on year, capping a full year of double-digit monthly growth. Customer acquisition also remained robust, with 108,800 new accounts added in December and consistently high monthly sign-ups throughout 2025, indicating sustained expansion of its user base and reinforcing its competitive position in Japan’s online MRO supply market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3064) stock is a Hold with a Yen2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MonotaRO Co stock, see the JP:3064 Stock Forecast page.