Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. (4598) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.30B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 379.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 25.25%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -33.68
• Shares Outstanding: 12,975,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 693,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 379,723
• PEG Ratio: 1.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 18.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: ¥227.00 ▼(-55.23% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/15/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/15/26

The score is driven down primarily by weak financial performance (no recent revenue, widening losses, and accelerating cash burn with a shrinking equity base) and a strongly bearish technical picture (price far below major moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage

Minimal debt materially lowers near-term financial obligations and preserves strategic optionality. For a development-stage biotech, low leverage reduces bankruptcy risk, eases ability to pursue licensing or partnerships, and provides flexibility in structuring future financing without heavy interest burden.

Prior Revenue History

The company produced modest revenue in 2021–2022, indicating prior commercial or collaborator traction. This historical revenue reduces binary program risk versus firms with zero commercial track record and suggests the business model or assets have yielded monetization pathways that can be redeployed or expanded.

Lean Cost Base

A very small headcount implies lower fixed overhead and a lean operational footprint. Over the medium term this helps extend runway versus larger peers, enabling management to reallocate scarce cash to critical R&D milestones or partner discussions and to better withstand financing cycles.

Negative Factors

Accelerating Cash Burn

Operating cash outflows have accelerated materially, increasing near-term financing requirements. Sustained, rising negative cash flow erodes liquidity, forces funding rounds or dilutive financings, and constrains the firm's ability to advance multiple programs concurrently without external capital.

Sustained Losses and No Recent Revenue

The absence of meaningful recent revenue combined with large, widening losses signals that operations are not self-funding. Over months to quarters this heightens dependency on external financing, makes long-term profitability uncertain, and increases project prioritization risk if capital becomes constrained.

Eroded Equity Base

A sharply reduced equity cushion limits the company's loss-absorbing capacity and bargaining power with partners and investors. This depletion elevates dilution risk on future financings, may force less favorable deal terms, and shortens runway absent new capital sources or meaningful revenue generation.

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. develops anticancer drugs. It develops DFP-10917 that is in phase III clinical trial in the United States and phase I trial in Japan for the treatment of relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia; DFP-14323, which is in phase III clinical trial to treat lung cancer; DFP-17729 that is in phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of solid cancer; DFP-11207, which has completed phase I clinical trial to treat pancreatic cancer; DFP-14927 that is in phase I for the treatment of hematologic cancer; and DFP-10825, which is in preclinical trial to treat gastric/ovarian cancer. Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Tokushima, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue streams include out-licensing agreements, collaborative partnerships, and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies that partner with Delta-Fly Pharma to further develop and market its drug candidates. Additionally, the company may earn income from royalties on product sales once its therapeutic candidates receive regulatory approval and are commercialized. Strategic alliances and research partnerships are significant factors contributing to Delta-Fly Pharma's earnings, enabling the company to leverage the resources and expertise of larger pharmaceutical firms to bring its innovations to market.

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is weak: no meaningful revenue in 2023–2025, widening net losses (to -1.72B in 2025), and accelerating operating cash burn (to -1.83B in 2025). The main offsetting strength is very low leverage (effectively no debt), but equity has been heavily depleted (to ~278M in 2025), increasing funding/dilution risk.

Income Statement

The business has shown no meaningful revenue in the last three fiscal years (2023–2025), following modest revenue in 2021–2022. Losses are large and widening again, with net income moving from -967M (2022) to -1.33B (2023), -1.43B (2024), and -1.72B (2025). Profitability is structurally weak and highly dependent on future commercialization or partnering progress; the main positive is that revenue was previously achievable (2021–2022), but the recent trend is clearly deteriorating.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very low (effectively no debt in recent years), which reduces financial risk and gives some flexibility. However, the equity base has been materially eroded (stockholders’ equity fell from ~2.08B in 2021 to ~278M in 2025), reflecting sustained losses. Total assets also declined sharply over the period, indicating balance sheet shrinkage; the key strength is minimal debt burden, while the key weakness is the pace of capital depletion.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative, with operating cash flow worsening from -940M (2022) to -1.30B (2023), -1.28B (2024), and -1.83B (2025); free cash flow tracks similarly negative each year. Cash burn is broadly in line with reported losses, which is typical for a development-stage biotech, but the magnitude and recent acceleration increase funding risk and raise the likelihood of dilution or additional financing needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	300.00M	300.00M
Gross Profit	-1.55M	-1.59M	-1.51M	-1.63M	300.00M	300.00M
EBITDA	-1.57B	-1.72B	-1.40B	-1.32B	-960.00M	-857.32M
Net Income	-1.59B	-1.72B	-1.43B	-1.33B	-967.30M	-862.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	790.57M	434.33M	1.47B	906.82M	1.32B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	730.32M	338.83M	1.42B	844.34M	1.27B	2.09B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	137.03M	156.54M	241.50M	115.62M	91.19M	82.46M
Stockholders Equity	653.55M	277.80M	1.23B	791.20M	1.23B	2.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.83B	-1.28B	-1.30B	-940.40M	-727.15M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-1.83B	-1.28B	-1.30B	-940.40M	-726.65M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-206.00K	207.00K	-326.00K	0.00	-505.00K
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	756.70M	1.85B	882.62M	119.86M	875.31M

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 507.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4598, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 507 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 224.80, above the 50-day MA of 323.50, and below the 200-day MA of 520.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -20.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4598.

Delta-Fly Pharma, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
4588	50 Neutral	¥79.87B	-34.13	―	―	-9.04%	13.09%
4592	48 Neutral	¥176.20B	-46.79	-636.97%	―	―	-12.69%
4563	47 Neutral	¥23.34B	-4.00	-184.71%	―	56.75%	-97.56%
4587	46 Neutral	¥185.07B	-49.16	-10.16%	―	-62.47%	-134.06%
4591	43 Neutral	¥4.67B	-3.88	―	―	-100.00%	7.60%
4598	39 Underperform	¥3.30B	-1.66	―	―	―	25.25%