Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (JP:4578)
:4578
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Otsuka Holdings Co
(4578)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
¥11,765.00
▲(44.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high profitability and a very low-leverage balance sheet), with supportive technical uptrend signals. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~13) but the dividend is modest, and cash-flow volatility/OCF conversion is the main near-term risk factor.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low debt-to-equity and steady growth in equity and assets give durable financial flexibility. This conservatism supports sustained R&D investment, withstands healthcare market swings, and preserves capacity for acquisitions or lifecycle spending without forcing distressed capital raises.
Negative Factors
OCF materially below net income
Operating cash generation lagging reported earnings suggests working-capital timing or non-cash profit drivers. Over months this can constrain discretionary spending and raises questions about earnings quality, requiring closer monitoring of cash conversion to validate profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low debt-to-equity and steady growth in equity and assets give durable financial flexibility. This conservatism supports sustained R&D investment, withstands healthcare market swings, and preserves capacity for acquisitions or lifecycle spending without forcing distressed capital raises.
Read all positive factors
Otsuka Holdings Co (4578) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥5.71T
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth5.15%
EPS Growth9.56%
CountryJP
Employees35,338
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)713.14
Shares Outstanding542,988,900
10 Day Avg. Volume977,130
30 Day Avg. Volume1,112,043
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio14.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥12,758.00Price Target Upside56.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)596.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.59T
Otsuka Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. is a global enterprise with operations spanning pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and various other sectors. Its pharmaceutical division is dedicated to developing treatments for a wide array of conditio...
How the Company Makes Money
Otsuka Holdings makes money mainly by selling products from two core business domains—Pharmaceuticals and Nutraceutical/Consumer Health—through a combination of direct sales and distribution partners in Japan and overseas. (1) Pharmaceuticals: Rev...
Otsuka Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2024
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in revenue and business profit, driven by pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Forecasts have been revised upward, and there is an acquisition to further enhance drug discovery capabilities. However, there were some negatives, such as impairment losses and a decrease in certain revenues. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong performance and optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Negative Updates
Impairment Loss Impact
Operating profit was affected by an impairment loss on AVP-786, although net profit still increased by 5.1%.
Read all updates
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for 4578.T, the executives provided detailed guidance reflecting significant growth in both their pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Revenue increased by 17.0% year-on-year to JPY 1,108.9 billion, while business profit surged by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion, driven primarily by strong sales of Core 2 pharmaceutical products like ABILIFY MAINTENA and JYNARQUE, and nutraceuticals, particularly in the For Women’s Health category. Despite an impairment loss on AVP-786, net profit rose by 5.1% due to finance income. The company also revised its full-year forecast upwards, with revenue now expected to reach JPY 2,315 billion and business profit JPY 390 billion. Nutraceutical revenue saw a notable increase, achieving over a 20% growth rate to JPY 271.8 billion, fueled by the expansion of products like Bonafide and Nature Made. Additionally, the company announced plans for share repurchases amounting to JPY 50 billion as part of their shareholder return policy.Otsuka Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52T | 2.47T | 2.33T | 2.02T | 1.74T | 1.50T |
| Gross Profit | 1.80T | 1.77T | 1.67T | 1.41T | 1.17T | 1.00T |
| EBITDA | 592.51B | 611.24B | 522.98B | 385.37B | 279.83B | 231.43B |
| Net Income | 376.50B | 363.15B | 343.12B | 121.62B | 133.91B | 125.46B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.21T | 4.20T | 3.74T | 3.36T | 3.10T | 2.82T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 538.30B | 534.64B | 426.17B | 513.34B | 471.63B | 410.68B |
| Total Debt | 194.63B | 227.97B | 189.38B | 214.19B | 194.16B | 212.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.04T | 1.10T | 961.08B | 924.92B | 840.26B | 775.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.11T | 3.03T | 2.73T | 2.39T | 2.23T | 2.01T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 314.13B | 315.74B | 259.08B | 192.50B | 150.90B | 176.41B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 407.03B | 403.58B | 354.64B | 283.23B | 211.85B | 228.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.10B | -162.56B | -268.27B | -190.63B | -81.58B | -95.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -191.13B | -136.37B | -186.89B | -60.17B | -95.47B | -95.84B |
Otsuka Holdings Co Technical Analysis
Positive
8150.00
Price Trends
10935.40
Negative
10602.36
Positive
9537.83
Positive
Market Momentum
-183.62
Positive
51.01
Neutral
57.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4578, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8150 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10872.00, below the 50-day MA of 10935.40, and below the 200-day MA of 9537.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -183.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4578.
Otsuka Holdings Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | ¥5.71T | 14.83 | 16.30% | 1.42% | 5.15% | 9.56% | |
72 Outperform | ¥12.45T | 27.31 | 22.23% | 1.17% | 5.65% | 10.24% | |
65 Neutral | ¥3.92T | 13.27 | 7.97% | 3.61% | 11.87% | 474.29% | |
65 Neutral | ¥1.12T | 28.72 | 5.75% | 3.51% | 4.56% | -16.55% | |
60 Neutral | ¥4.96T | 18.49 | 18.56% | 2.07% | 12.55% | -10.18% | |
58 Neutral | ¥7.98T | 40.30 | 0.54% | 4.11% | -1.66% | -239.68% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Otsuka Holdings Co Corporate Events
Otsuka’s VOYXACT Shows Kidney Function Preservation in Phase 3 IgA Nephropathy Trial
Jun 4, 2026
Otsuka reported positive interim Phase 3 data showing that VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab-szsi) preserved kidney function over 12 months in adults with primary IgA nephropathy at risk of disease progression. In the VISIONARY trial, patients on VOYXACT had...
Otsuka Advances ¥50 Billion Share Buyback, Repurchasing Over 2 Million Shares
Jun 2, 2026
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. has been executing a share repurchase program authorized by its board in February 2026, allowing buybacks of up to 7,000,000 common shares, or 1.33% of outstanding shares excluding treasury stock, for a total of up to ...
Otsuka Boosts Capital in U.S. Clinical Nutrition Unit to Expand Operations
May 7, 2026
Otsuka Holdings said its wholly owned unit Otsuka Pharmaceutical Factory America will inject USD 130 million into its newly formed U.S. subsidiary Otsuka Clinical Nutrition America, boosting the latter’s capital to USD 130 million and making...
Otsuka Advances Share Buyback, Repurchasing ¥8.49 Billion in April
May 1, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has disclosed the latest progress of its ongoing share buyback program authorized by its board in February 2026. During the period from April 1 to April 30, 2026, the company repurchased 783,900 shares of its common stock on the To...
Otsuka Holdings Posts Solid Q1 Growth but Maintains Cautious 2026 Profit Outlook
Apr 28, 2026
Otsuka Holdings reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of ¥630.3 billion, up 8.2% year on year, with business profit essentially flat at ¥123.0 billion and operating profit up 1.5%. Profit attributable to owners rose 15.7% to ¥98.3 bil...
Otsuka Completes Treasury Share Disposal for Restricted Stock Compensation
Apr 24, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has completed the payment process for the disposal of 83,920 treasury shares, which were issued as restricted stock compensation to directors of the company and its subsidiaries. The transaction, valued at approximately ¥930.7...
Otsuka Advances ¥50 Billion Share Buyback Program on Tokyo Market
Apr 1, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has reported progress on a previously approved share repurchase program, buying back 499,800 common shares for approximately ¥5.14 billion on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between March 1 and March 31, 2026. These purchases form pa...
Otsuka to Buy Transcend Therapeutics to Deepen Push Into Next-Generation Psychiatric Drugs
Mar 27, 2026
Otsuka Pharmaceutical, a 100% subsidiary of Otsuka Holdings, has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of U.S.-based Transcend Therapeutics via its North American holding company Otsuka America, Inc., with closing targeted for the second quarte...
Otsuka Holdings Grants Restricted Stock to Directors Tied to Medium-Term Performance Targets
Mar 27, 2026
Otsuka Holdings will dispose of 83,920 treasury shares as restricted stock compensation for eight directors of the parent company and 35 directors of major subsidiaries, at ¥11,090 per share for a total value of about ¥930.7 million. The...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.