Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (JP:4578)
:4578
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Otsuka Holdings Co
(4578)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
¥12,102.00
▲(48.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability rebound, high gross margins, and low leverage), partially offset by weaker cash conversion versus EBIT and some historical earnings volatility. Technicals show a strong uptrend but an overbought setup, and valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend.
Positive Factors
Diversified healthcare business model
Otsuka's dual focus on prescription pharmaceuticals and nutraceutical/consumer products creates durable revenue diversification. Prescription drugs provide high-margin, patent-backed sales while consumer health offers stable retail cashflows and channel breadth, reducing single-product cyclicality over time.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion versus operating profit
Operating cash flow converting to only ~54% of EBIT signals persistent working-capital or non-cash items that reduce cash available from reported profits. Over time this can limit internal funding for capex, R&D or dividends and raise reliance on balance-sheet flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified healthcare business model
Otsuka's dual focus on prescription pharmaceuticals and nutraceutical/consumer products creates durable revenue diversification. Prescription drugs provide high-margin, patent-backed sales while consumer health offers stable retail cashflows and channel breadth, reducing single-product cyclicality over time.
Read all positive factors
Otsuka Holdings Co (4578) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥5.92T
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth6.56%
EPS Growth201.49%
CountryJP
Employees35,338
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)124.25
Shares Outstanding542,988,900
10 Day Avg. Volume977,130
30 Day Avg. Volume1,112,043
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio14.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥11,437.50Price Target Upside40.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)563.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.53T
Otsuka Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. is a global healthcare company based in Japan, primarily engaged in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. The company operates through two main segments: Pharmaceuticals, which focuses on the development of innova...
How the Company Makes Money
Otsuka Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which include prescription medications and treatments for various medical conditions. Key revenue streams come from the commercialization of innovative dr...
Otsuka Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2024
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in revenue and business profit, driven by pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Forecasts have been revised upward, and there is an acquisition to further enhance drug discovery capabilities. However, there were some negatives, such as impairment losses and a decrease in certain revenues. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong performance and optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Negative Updates
Impairment Loss Impact
Operating profit was affected by an impairment loss on AVP-786, although net profit still increased by 5.1%.
Read all updates
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for 4578.T, the executives provided detailed guidance reflecting significant growth in both their pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Revenue increased by 17.0% year-on-year to JPY 1,108.9 billion, while business profit surged by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion, driven primarily by strong sales of Core 2 pharmaceutical products like ABILIFY MAINTENA and JYNARQUE, and nutraceuticals, particularly in the For Women’s Health category. Despite an impairment loss on AVP-786, net profit rose by 5.1% due to finance income. The company also revised its full-year forecast upwards, with revenue now expected to reach JPY 2,315 billion and business profit JPY 390 billion. Nutraceutical revenue saw a notable increase, achieving over a 20% growth rate to JPY 271.8 billion, fueled by the expansion of products like Bonafide and Nature Made. Additionally, the company announced plans for share repurchases amounting to JPY 50 billion as part of their shareholder return policy.Otsuka Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47T | 2.33T | 2.02T | 1.74T | 1.50T |
| Gross Profit | 1.77T | 1.67T | 1.41T | 1.17T | 1.00T |
| EBITDA | 528.60B | 522.98B | 385.37B | 279.83B | 231.43B |
| Net Income | 363.15B | 343.12B | 121.62B | 133.91B | 125.46B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.20T | 3.74T | 3.36T | 3.10T | 2.82T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 534.64B | 426.17B | 513.34B | 471.63B | 410.68B |
| Total Debt | 227.97B | 189.38B | 214.19B | 194.16B | 212.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10T | 961.08B | 924.92B | 840.26B | 775.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.03T | 2.73T | 2.39T | 2.23T | 2.01T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 315.74B | 259.08B | 192.50B | 150.90B | 176.41B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 403.58B | 354.64B | 283.23B | 211.85B | 228.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -162.56B | -268.27B | -190.63B | -81.58B | -95.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -136.37B | -186.89B | -60.17B | -95.47B | -95.84B |
Otsuka Holdings Co Technical Analysis
Positive
8150.00
Price Trends
10269.32
Positive
9555.19
Positive
8576.37
Positive
Market Momentum
292.40
Negative
57.98
Neutral
80.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4578, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8150 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10885.00, below the 50-day MA of 10269.32, and below the 200-day MA of 8576.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 292.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4578.
Otsuka Holdings Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | ¥5.92T | 12.95 | 16.30% | 1.42% | 6.56% | 201.49% | |
76 Outperform | ¥14.43T | 31.26 | 22.23% | 1.17% | 6.25% | 2.62% | |
75 Outperform | ¥4.66T | 9.34 | 7.97% | 3.61% | 13.24% | 127.88% | |
70 Neutral | ¥9.20T | 18.42 | 0.54% | 4.11% | -2.84% | -88.29% | |
68 Neutral | ¥1.42T | 19.13 | 5.75% | 3.51% | 6.79% | 22.14% | |
67 Neutral | ¥5.34T | 17.88 | 18.56% | 2.07% | 12.56% | 14.58% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4578
Otsuka Holdings Co
11,220.00
4,178.65
59.34%
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JP:4502
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44.27%
Otsuka Holdings Co Corporate Events
Otsuka Holdings to Repurchase and Cancel Up to ¥50 Billion in Shares
Feb 13, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has approved a share repurchase program and subsequent cancellation of treasury stock as part of a broader effort to enhance capital efficiency and return profits to shareholders. The board resolution allows the company to buy back...
Otsuka Weighs Investment Unit Cut to Attract Individual Investors
Feb 13, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has outlined its stance on potentially reducing its investment unit, acknowledging that smaller trading units can improve share accessibility for individual investors and help invigorate equity market participation. The company pos...
Otsuka Holdings’ Nonconsolidated Profit Falls on Lower Subsidiary Dividends
Feb 13, 2026
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a year-on-year decline in its nonconsolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenues falling 16.3% to ¥98.8 billion and net profit dropping 15.5% to ¥89.9...
Otsuka Holdings Posts Profit Surge in 2025 but Guides to Lower Earnings in 2026
Feb 13, 2026
Otsuka Holdings reported fiscal 2025 revenue of ¥2.47 trillion, up 6% year on year, with business profit rising 3.6% to ¥446.1 billion and operating profit jumping 48.2% to ¥479.4 billion. Profit attributable to owners grew 5.8% to ...
Otsuka’s VOYXACT Gains FDA Approval for IgAN Treatment
Nov 26, 2025
Otsuka Holdings has received accelerated FDA approval for VOYXACT, a novel treatment for reducing proteinuria in adults with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) at risk for disease progression. This approval, based on significant results f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.