Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (JP:4502)
:4502
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co
(4502)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥5,465.00
▲(29.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but uneven financial fundamentals (stable revenue history and strong free cash flow, but volatile profitability and weaker recent cash flow momentum). Earnings call factors are moderately supportive due to pipeline progress, stable cash flow guidance, and a dividend raise, but FY26 profit/EPS decline guidance and restructuring costs add near-term risk. Technical signals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is constrained by a high P/E despite a healthy dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Late-stage pipeline & regulatory catalysts
A deep late-stage portfolio with FDA priority reviews and expected H2 2026 launches creates a multi-year structural growth runway. Repeated NME filings and pivotal readouts through 2030 can progressively replace LOE losses, diversify revenue streams, and de-risk medium-term top-line recovery.
Negative Factors
Near-term profit and EPS pressure
Guidance for lower core operating profit and sharply lower core EPS signals multi-quarter earnings pressure as management invests behind launches while absorbing restructuring charges. This reduces near-term earnings power and may slow deleveraging and reinvestment capacity until launches scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Late-stage pipeline & regulatory catalysts
A deep late-stage portfolio with FDA priority reviews and expected H2 2026 launches creates a multi-year structural growth runway. Repeated NME filings and pivotal readouts through 2030 can progressively replace LOE losses, diversify revenue streams, and de-risk medium-term top-line recovery.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥8.10T
Dividend Yield4.11%
Average Volume (3M)4.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.5
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-1.66%
EPS Growth78.06%
CountryJP
Employees49,281
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)121.97
Shares Outstanding1,591,262,500
10 Day Avg. Volume4,483,280
30 Day Avg. Volume4,345,693
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.98
P/FCF Ratio11.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥6,900.00Price Target Upside63.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)148.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥4.61T
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally....
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda primarily makes money by selling prescription medicines and vaccines to wholesalers, hospitals, pharmacies, governments, and other healthcare providers across major geographies (including Japan and international markets). Its core revenue s...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a constructive long-term outlook driven by a deep late-stage pipeline, multiple near-term regulatory catalysts (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) and strong cash generation, supported by substantial cost savings and a clear transformation plan to fund launches and R&D. Near-term headwinds include a FY25 core revenue decline driven by VYVANSE LOE (≈JPY 150 billion), moderated growth in some legacy products (albumin, parts of PDT), restructuring costs (~JPY 170 billion in FY26) and guidance that anticipates core operating profit and EPS declines in FY26 as investments are made. On balance, the positive R&D achievements, clear launch roadmap, solid free cash flow and concrete efficiency targets outweigh the short-term financial pressures and execution risks.Positive Updates
Strong Late-Stage R&D Momentum and Regulatory Progress
Three positive Phase III readouts (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) in FY25; FDA priority review granted for oveporexton and rusfertide with expected U.S. launches in H2 2026 and zasocitinib commercialization planned H1 2027. Additional positive pivotal result for TAK-881 (20% facilitated subcutaneous Ig) with regulatory submissions planned in 2026. Management expects an average of 2–3 NME filings / important U.S. indication expansions per year through 2030.
Negative Updates
Core Revenue Decline and VYVANSE LOE Impact
Core revenue was approximately JPY 4.5 trillion in FY25, a decline of 2.6% at constant exchange rates (CER). The company lost ~JPY 150 billion of VYVANSE revenue due to loss of exclusivity, which materially contributed to the top-line decline.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Late-Stage R&D Momentum and Regulatory Progress
Three positive Phase III readouts (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) in FY25; FDA priority review granted for oveporexton and rusfertide with expected U.S. launches in H2 2026 and zasocitinib commercialization planned H1 2027. Additional positive pivotal result for TAK-881 (20% facilitated subcutaneous Ig) with regulatory submissions planned in 2026. Management expects an average of 2–3 NME filings / important U.S. indication expansions per year through 2030.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda's FY2026 guidance calls for revenue to be down low single-digits at constant exchange rates (CER) but, using FX assumptions of JPY156/USD and JPY182/EUR, to rise about 3% to JPY4.64 trillion; core operating profit is guided to decline 5–8% at CER (forecast JPY1.16 trillion, only –1.1% on actual FX), reported operating profit to increase ~2.7% to JPY420 billion, and core EPS to decline in the mid‑teens; adjusted free cash flow is guided to JPY650–750 billion and the annual dividend will be increased to JPY204 per share. Management plans to invest behind launches and R&D while funding this with transformation savings (expect ~JPY100 billion of savings in FY26 and >JPY200 billion annualized by FY2028) but will incur ~JPY170 billion of restructuring costs in FY26 affecting ~4,500 roles; this builds on ~JPY300 billion of gross annualized savings identified and >JPY150 billion of cost savings delivered in FY2025 (FY25 results included ~JPY4.5 trillion core revenue, JPY1.17 trillion core OP, JPY408.8 billion reported OP, core EPS JPY517 and adjusted FCF JPY684.5 billion). The company noted the VYVANSE LOE reduced FY25 revenue by ~JPY150 billion and will be a much smaller headwind in FY26, plans to repay ~JPY500 billion of debt maturing in FY26 (100% fixed rate, weighted avg interest ~2.4%), and is targeting deleveraging toward ~2x adjusted net debt/EBITDA.Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.51T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T |
| Gross Profit | 2.30T | 2.46T | 2.32T | 2.30T | 2.04T |
| EBITDA | 1.26T | 1.13T | 927.95B | 1.18T | 1.04T |
| Net Income | 191.76B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.45T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 595.05B | 385.11B | 457.80B | 533.53B | 849.70B |
| Total Debt | 4.88T | 5.09T | 5.46T | 4.86T | 4.81T |
| Total Liabilities | 7.68T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.77T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 762.71B | 761.70B | 464.90B | 736.56B | 897.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 938.71B | 962.49B | 640.32B | 877.22B | 1.02T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -387.80B | -385.36B | -488.21B | -615.72B | -204.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -375.44B | -638.44B | -254.04B | -600.59B | -962.06B |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis
Negative
4222.00
Price Trends
5512.02
Negative
5356.49
Negative
4808.56
Positive
Market Momentum
-94.44
Negative
32.29
Neutral
44.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4222 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5255.70, below the 50-day MA of 5512.02, and below the 200-day MA of 4808.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -94.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4502.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | ¥2.60T | 14.39 | 12.22% | 2.22% | 14.01% | 20.33% | |
67 Neutral | ¥283.49B | 22.21 | ― | 2.12% | 6.58% | -8.74% | |
65 Neutral | ¥1.17T | 35.61 | 5.75% | 3.51% | 4.56% | -16.55% | |
58 Neutral | ¥8.10T | 46.52 | 0.54% | 4.11% | -1.66% | 78.06% | |
58 Neutral | ¥677.15B | 7.72 | 48.92% | ― | 13.66% | 352.17% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events
Takeda faces major AMITIZA antitrust verdict and prepares FY2025 provision
May 19, 2026
Takeda said a Massachusetts jury returned a verdict against the company in U.S. antitrust litigation over the constipation drug AMITIZA, awarding nearly USD 885 million in single damages to wholesalers, retailers and end payors, with certain porti...
Takeda Extends Long-Term Stock Incentive Plans for Directors and Management into 2026
May 13, 2026
Takeda’s board has approved the continuation in 2026 of its stock compensation plan for directors and the stock grant system for Japan-based company management, both designed as long-term incentive schemes. The framework distinguishes betwee...
Takeda Lifts Profit and Dividend Despite Revenue Dip, Signals Softer Earnings Ahead
May 13, 2026
Takeda reported fiscal year 2026 revenue of ¥4.51 trillion, down 1.7% year on year, but operating profit rose 19.3% to ¥408.8 billion and net profit attributable to owners surged 77.7% to ¥191.8 billion, supported by stronger margin...
Takeda’s Oral Psoriasis Drug Zasocitinib Shows Strong Phase 3 Results
Mar 29, 2026
Takeda reported detailed Phase 3 results for its oral TYK2 inhibitor zasocitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, showing rapid and durable skin clearance with once-daily dosing. In two large Latitude PsO trials, about 70% of pa...
Takeda Sets June CEO Handover to Julie Kim and Overhauls Board Line-up
Mar 26, 2026
Takeda’s board has proposed CEO-elect Julie Kim as a new internal director ahead of the June 24, 2026 shareholders meeting, with plans to appoint her representative director, president and CEO immediately after her expected election. Incumbe...
Takeda Unveils Cost-Saving Transformation to Fund Next Wave of Drug Launches
Mar 25, 2026
Takeda has approved the next phase of its corporate transformation aimed at boosting competitiveness and supporting long-term growth as it prepares for a wave of new product launches. The program is built around a streamlined organizational struct...
Takeda and Protagonist Win FDA Priority Review for First-in-Class Polycythemia Vera Drug
Mar 2, 2026
Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has accepted their New Drug Application and granted Priority Review for rusfertide, an investigational first-in-class hepcidin mimetic for adults with polycythemia vera...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.