Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (JP:4502)
:4502
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co
(4502)
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Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
¥6,387.00
▲(51.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability and cash generation despite very weak net profitability/ROE, supported by a constructive technical uptrend. Valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend, while earnings-call updates add a balanced outlook: strong cash-flow discipline and pipeline progress tempered by near-term LOE pressure and longer-term ENTYVIO pricing risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Takeda's substantial TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for launches, debt reduction, dividends, and M&A. High absolute FCF vs. net income supports financial flexibility and resilience through multi-quarter revenue headwinds and investment cycles.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability and low ROE
Severely compressed net margins and minimal ROE reflect weak earnings quality and limit the company's ability to compound shareholder value. Even with strong gross and EBITDA margins, low net profitability constrains retained earnings and long-term return generation if earnings don't recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Takeda's substantial TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for launches, debt reduction, dividends, and M&A. High absolute FCF vs. net income supports financial flexibility and resilience through multi-quarter revenue headwinds and investment cycles.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥9.09T
Dividend Yield4.11%
Average Volume (3M)4.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.4
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-2.84%
EPS Growth-88.29%
CountryJP
Employees49,281
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)65.74
Shares Outstanding1,591,204,500
10 Day Avg. Volume4,483,280
30 Day Avg. Volume4,345,693
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio9.15
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥6,550.00Price Target Upside55.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)168.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥4.60T
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally....
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda makes money primarily by selling prescription and specialty medicines and related therapies to wholesalers, hospitals, pharmacies, governments, and other healthcare providers across major markets (notably Japan, the U.S., and Europe). Reven...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational and R&D momentum—three positive Phase III readouts, NDA filings, robust free cash flow (JPY 625.9B), and improving growth product performance (growth & launch products +6.7% CER)—against clear near-term commercial and pricing headwinds (notably VYVANSE generic erosion, PDT/albumin softness in China, IVIG Medicare Part D effects, and IRA inclusion risk for ENTYVIO). Management emphasized strict cost discipline that preserved core OP guidance and upgraded cash flow expectations while committing to invest behind multiple imminent launches and pipeline programs. Overall the narrative is one of solid financial and pipeline resilience with identifiable risks that are being actively managed.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and upgraded cash flow outlook
Adjusted free cash flow of JPY 625.9 billion YTD (after a USD 1.2 billion upfront Innovent payment); management upgraded the adjusted free cash flow forecast despite transactional spend.
Negative Updates
Overall revenue decline and guidance revision
9-month revenue of just over JPY 3.4 trillion, down 3.3% Y/Y (minus 2.8% at CER). Full-year revenue guidance revised to JPY 4.53 trillion and to a low single-digit decline at CER due primarily to stronger-than-anticipated VYVANSE generic erosion.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and upgraded cash flow outlook
Adjusted free cash flow of JPY 625.9 billion YTD (after a USD 1.2 billion upfront Innovent payment); management upgraded the adjusted free cash flow forecast despite transactional spend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda updated FY25 guidance while reiterating commitment to OpEx discipline: Q3 YTD revenue was just over JPY 3.4 trillion (‑3.3% YoY, ‑2.8% CER), core operating profit JPY 971.6 billion (‑3.4% YoY), reported operating profit JPY 422.4 billion (+1.2%), core EPS JPY 428 and reported EPS JPY 137, with adjusted free cash flow of JPY 625.9 billion. Growth & launch products (over 50% of revenue) grew 6.7% at CER (ENTYVIO +7.4% CER, TAKHZYRO +2.4% CER, IG +4.3% YTD, albumin +1.3%, QDENGA +22.1%). Management revised only revenue guidance to a low single‑digit decline at CER and now forecasts full‑year revenue of JPY 4.53 trillion, core operating profit of JPY 1.15 trillion and core EPS of JPY 486, noting FX upside added ~JPY 30 billion to revenue and ~JPY 20 billion to core OP and that adjusted free cash flow guidance was upgraded.Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.46T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T | 3.20T |
| Gross Profit | 2.66T | 2.46T | 2.32T | 2.30T | 2.04T | 1.80T |
| EBITDA | 1.34T | 1.13T | 927.95B | 1.18T | 1.04T | 1.07T |
| Net Income | 112.93B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B | 376.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.41T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T | 12.91T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 761.94B | 385.11B | 457.80B | 533.53B | 849.70B | 966.22B |
| Total Debt | 4.85T | 5.09T | 5.46T | 4.86T | 4.81T | 5.07T |
| Total Liabilities | 7.76T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T | 7.74T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.64T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T | 5.17T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 931.22B | 761.70B | 464.90B | 736.56B | 897.97B | 793.87B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.12T | 962.49B | 640.32B | 877.22B | 1.02T | 905.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -345.48B | -385.36B | -488.21B | -615.72B | -204.44B | 392.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -639.76B | -638.44B | -254.04B | -600.59B | -962.06B | -981.00B |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis
Positive
4222.00
Price Trends
5591.29
Positive
5106.33
Positive
4660.15
Positive
Market Momentum
66.68
Positive
52.57
Neutral
44.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4222 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5721.12, below the 50-day MA of 5591.29, and below the 200-day MA of 4660.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 66.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | ¥2.96T | 8.09 | 12.22% | 2.22% | 4.48% | 11.08% | |
77 Outperform | ¥347.00B | 9.44 | ― | 2.12% | 4.07% | 22.59% | |
73 Outperform | ¥441.06B | 15.43 | 7.11% | 2.43% | 3.53% | 38.23% | |
70 Neutral | ¥9.09T | 18.42 | 0.54% | 4.11% | -2.84% | -88.29% | |
68 Neutral | ¥1.42T | 19.13 | 5.75% | 3.51% | 6.79% | 22.14% | |
56 Neutral | ¥810.48B | 26.11 | 48.92% | ― | 29.92% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4502
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events
Takeda Sets June CEO Handover to Julie Kim and Overhauls Board Line-up
Mar 26, 2026
Takeda’s board has proposed CEO-elect Julie Kim as a new internal director ahead of the June 24, 2026 shareholders meeting, with plans to appoint her representative director, president and CEO immediately after her expected election. Incumbe...
Takeda Unveils Cost-Saving Transformation to Fund Next Wave of Drug Launches
Mar 25, 2026
Takeda has approved the next phase of its corporate transformation aimed at boosting competitiveness and supporting long-term growth as it prepares for a wave of new product launches. The program is built around a streamlined organizational struct...
Takeda and Protagonist Win FDA Priority Review for First-in-Class Polycythemia Vera Drug
Mar 2, 2026
Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has accepted their New Drug Application and granted Priority Review for rusfertide, an investigational first-in-class hepcidin mimetic for adults with polycythemia vera...
Takeda Wins FDA Priority Review for Potential First-in-Class Narcolepsy Drug
Feb 10, 2026
Takeda has had its New Drug Application for oveporexton (TAK-861), an oral orexin receptor 2-selective agonist for narcolepsy type 1, accepted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration with Priority Review and a target action date in the third quar...
Takeda Posts Lower Nine-Month Revenue but Higher Profit, Lifts Dividend and Trims Growth Outlook
Jan 29, 2026
Takeda reported a 3.3% year-on-year decline in revenue to ¥3.41 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, while operating profit edged up 1.2% and net profit attributable to owners rose 2.4% to ¥216.1 billion, supported by hi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.