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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (JP:4502)
:4502
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4502

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co

(OTC:4502)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
¥4,606.00
▲(6.45%Upside)
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and effective cash flow management. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and while the company offers a solid dividend yield, the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both growth and challenges. Investors should note the potential risks associated with product exclusivity losses and tax impacts.
Positive Factors
Clinical Trials
Oral OX2R agonist oveporexton meets primary endpoints in two studies, showing promise in treatment effectiveness.
Market Potential
Takeda disclosed projections that rusfertide peak sales could reach $1-2bn, indicating strong market potential.
Regulatory Approvals
Oveporexton has been awarded Breakthrough Therapy designations in both China and the US, likely leading to priority review.
Negative Factors
Patent Expiry
Vyvanse going off patent will have long-term effects, impacting the company's performance.
Pricing Risks
Risks are associated with US drug price policy, which has not been accounted for in the earnings estimates.
Regulatory Challenges
The US’s 340B program and Medicare Part D redesign are estimated to have a significant financial impact on Takeda, totaling JPY130Bn for FY2025.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTakeda Pharmaceutical Co. generates revenue primarily through the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's key revenue streams include prescription drug sales across its core therapeutic areas, such as oncology, gastroenterology, and neuroscience. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to create innovative treatments that address unmet medical needs, which in turn drives sales growth. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Licensing agreements and the commercialization of co-developed drugs also contribute to its earnings. The company's global presence and strong distribution networks enable it to capture market share across different regions, further bolstering its revenue.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Takeda demonstrated strong performance and growth in its product portfolio and pipeline, with positive financial results and shareholder returns. However, challenges from VYVANSE's loss of exclusivity, ENTYVIO's U.S. market issues, and higher taxes slightly dampened the overall results.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth and Launch Product Portfolio Success
Takeda's Growth and Launch Product portfolio grew by 14.7% and now accounts for 48% of total core revenue, indicating strong performance and future potential.
Strong Financial Performance
Core revenue grew 2.8% at constant exchange rate, and core operating profit increased by 4.9% at constant exchange rate, driven by robust OpEx control and efficiency programs.
Dividend Increase
Takeda announced a dividend increase to JPY 200 per share, reflecting a commitment to delivering shareholder value.
Pipeline Progress and Late-stage Developments
Takeda progressed its late-stage pipeline with 6 Phase III programs and achieved positive Phase III results for rusfertide in polycythemia vera.
Negative Updates
VYVANSE Loss of Exclusivity Impact
Significant generic impact from VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, with expectations of further erosion in 2025 due to increased generics in the market.
ENTYVIO Revenue Performance
ENTYVIO revenue performance was below expectations due to challenges in the U.S. access landscape, affecting seamless patient access to new formulations.
Higher-than-anticipated Tax Expenses
Core EPS fell slightly short of guidance primarily due to higher-than-anticipated tax expenses.
Challenges in China Market
Albumin growth was impacted by lower demand in China, affecting overall revenue growth.
Company Guidance
In the latest earnings call for Takeda, the company provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, highlighting several key financial metrics. Takeda expects broadly flat core revenue, core operating profit, and core EPS at constant exchange rates, primarily due to the carryover impact of VYVANSE's decline. The guidance also includes an anticipated JPY 130 billion negative impact from Medicare Part D redesign and 340B expansion. Despite these challenges, Takeda demonstrated strong momentum in its Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which grew by 14.7% and now accounts for 48% of total core revenue. The company also achieved a core operating profit margin of 25.4%, exceeding expectations by more than 2 percentage points. Additionally, Takeda plans to increase its annual dividend to JPY 200 per share, reflecting its commitment to progressive dividend growth. The company is also focusing on advancing its late-stage pipeline, with several promising Phase III programs underway.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co exhibits a commendable financial performance with solid growth in revenue and cash flow, underpinned by strong operational efficiency. While the balance sheet is stable, attention should be given to managing debt levels. Overall, the company is in a healthy financial state, well-positioned for future growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains healthy, though there was a slight decline in net profit margin, indicating potential cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting strong operational efficiency, albeit with some fluctuations.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet depicts a stable financial position with a moderately high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting some reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is reasonable, showing effective use of shareholders' equity, though there could be improvements. The equity ratio indicates a solid asset base supported by equity.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co demonstrates strong cash flow management, with significant free cash flow growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio supports ongoing operational and financial stability.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.58T4.26T4.03T3.57T3.20T
Gross Profit2.36T2.83T2.78T2.46T2.20T
EBITDA1.15T874.60B1.18T1.18T983.72B
Net Income107.93B144.07B317.02B230.06B376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets14.25T15.11T13.96T13.18T12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments385.11B457.80B553.70B875.00B1.00T
Total Debt4.52T4.84T4.38T4.35T4.64T
Total Liabilities7.31T7.83T7.60T7.49T7.74T
Stockholders Equity6.94T7.27T6.35T5.68T5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow761.70B235.61B343.47B937.07B774.46B
Operating Cash Flow962.49B716.34B977.16B1.12T1.01T
Investing Cash Flow-385.36B-463.86B-607.10B-198.13B393.53B
Financing Cash Flow-638.44B-354.42B-709.15B-1.07T-1.09T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price4327.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4314.00
Positive
100DMA
4308.53
Positive
200DMA
4193.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Positive
RSI
47.55
Neutral
STOCH
42.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4327 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4382.30, above the 50-day MA of 4314.00, and above the 200-day MA of 4193.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$6.89T63.641.50%4.53%7.45%-25.77%
52
Neutral
$7.61B0.11-63.03%2.07%16.35%0.29%
$3.08B21.0413.50%
$7.98B23.825.34%0.15%
$1.97B15.487.24%2.14%
$15.15B12.3312.99%0.16%
$1.90B8.9211.16%0.14%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4502
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co
4,327.00
213.56
5.19%
DNPUF
Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co
7.74
4.99
181.45%
ESALF
Eisai Co
25.59
-12.14
-32.18%
HTSUF
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co
27.22
1.03
3.93%
SGIOF
Shionogi & Co
16.81
3.04
22.08%
TSMRF
Tsumura & Co
24.75
-0.16
-0.64%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda’s Oveporexton Shows Promise in Phase 3 Narcolepsy Studies
Jul 14, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced positive results from two pivotal Phase 3 studies of oveporexton (TAK-861) in treating narcolepsy type 1. The studies met all primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating statistically significant improvements across symptoms and reinforcing the potential of oveporexton to transform the standard of care. The drug was generally well-tolerated, and Takeda is advancing regulatory submissions to bring oveporexton to market quickly. This development marks a significant advancement in addressing the underlying cause of narcolepsy type 1 and positions Takeda for future growth in the orexin biology field.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Completes Treasury Share Disposal with Minor Adjustments
Jul 8, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has completed the disposal of treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan for employees outside Japan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares due to partial forfeiture of rights by some allottees. This change is expected to have an immaterial impact on the company’s full-year financials, indicating a stable operational outlook despite the adjustment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Director Assignments, Emphasizing Strong Governance
Jun 25, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced new assignments of directors following its 149th Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The board, comprised predominantly of external directors, underscores Takeda’s commitment to strong, independent governance. This governance model is crucial for aligning decisions with stakeholder interests and maintaining the company’s values. The new assignments include roles in the Nomination and Compensation Committees, further emphasizing the company’s focus on transparency and objectivity in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces Disposal of Treasury Shares for Global Employee Incentive Plan
Jun 10, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced the disposal of 17,355,770 treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees outside Japan, valued at 75.25 billion yen. This initiative aims to align employee interests with shareholders, attract and retain talent, and balance risk and reward, potentially enhancing the company’s competitive positioning and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Shelf Registration for LTIP Support
Jun 2, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. announced its plan to withdraw a previous Shelf Registration Statement and file a new one in Japan to issue new shares or dispose of treasury shares. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees. The scheduled issue amount is up to JPY 220 billion, with an expected share dilution of around 1.1% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. This strategic decision allows Takeda to manage its equity more flexibly and aligns with its ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda and Protagonist Reveal Positive Phase 3 VERIFY Study Results
Jun 1, 2025

Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics announced the full 32-week results of their Phase 3 VERIFY study on rusfertide, presented at the ASCO Annual Meeting. The study, which targeted patients with polycythemia vera, successfully met its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating significant reductions in phlebotomy and improved hematocrit control. Despite the positive clinical outcomes, the impact on Takeda’s financial results for FY2025 is expected to be minimal.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Continues Stock Compensation Plans for Directors and Management
May 8, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company has announced the continuation of its stock compensation plans for directors and management in Japan, initially introduced in 2014 and 2016. These plans aim to align the interests of directors with shareholders by linking compensation to company performance, thereby enhancing corporate value and ensuring effective supervisory functions.

Takeda Reports Revenue Growth but Decline in Net Profit for FY 2025
May 8, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, showing a 7.5% increase in revenue to 4,581,551 million JPY. Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a 25% decline in net profit attributable to owners, amounting to 107,928 million JPY. The company’s financial position reflects a decrease in total assets and equity, while cash flow from operating activities improved significantly. The company has also announced a dividend increase and provided forecasts for the next fiscal year, indicating a slight revenue decline but a substantial increase in operating profit and net profit.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025