Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.12T
• Dividend Yield: 4.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 208.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -2.84%
• EPS Growth: -88.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -7.83
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,985,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,513,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,046,170
• PEG Ratio: -2.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,032.70
• Price Target Upside: 19.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 115.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥4.51T

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,898.00 ▲(16.01% Upside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score is primarily supported by its stable financial performance and positive technical indicators. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and recent earnings call highlights mixed results with significant challenges. The strategic partnership with Innovent Biologics provides a positive future outlook.

Positive Factors

Innovent Biologics Partnership

This strategic partnership enhances Takeda's oncology pipeline, potentially leading to new product launches and strengthening its market position in the oncology sector.

Strong Free Cash Flow

Strong cash flow generation supports Takeda's ability to invest in R&D and strategic initiatives, ensuring long-term sustainability and operational flexibility.

Pipeline Advancements

Advancements in the drug pipeline, including promising Phase III studies, suggest potential for future product launches and revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Impact of VYVANSE Generic Competition

The loss of exclusivity for VYVANSE significantly impacts revenue, highlighting challenges in maintaining market share against generic competition.

ENTYVIO Growth Below Expectations

Slower growth for ENTYVIO indicates increased competitive pressures and challenges in achieving projected sales targets, affecting revenue projections.

Transactional FX Headwinds

FX volatility poses a risk to financial performance, affecting profitability and complicating financial planning and forecasting.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is a global biopharmaceutical leader focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative medicines. The company operates in several therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and vaccines. Takeda's core products include treatments for various cancers, gastrointestinal disorders, and rare diseases, alongside a growing portfolio of vaccines and biologics.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which include both patented and generic medications. The company employs a revenue model that encompasses direct sales to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies, with a significant portion of revenue derived from its innovative and specialty drugs, particularly in oncology and rare diseases. Additionally, Takeda engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which can include co-development agreements and licensing deals, enhancing its product offerings and market reach. The company also benefits from its established presence in emerging markets, contributing to its overall earnings. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to fuel its pipeline of new drugs, which is crucial for sustaining long-term profitability.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co demonstrates a stable financial performance with strengths in cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains operational efficiency and a strong capital structure.

Income Statement

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth, but the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of approximately 52.8%. The net profit margin is modest at 3.1%, reflecting some profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, indicating efficient operations despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is low at 1.9%, suggesting limited profitability from equity investments. However, the equity ratio is strong, showing a solid capital structure with stockholders' equity making up a significant portion of total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 14.2% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.46, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.81, highlighting strong cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.42T	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.46T	2.46T	2.32T	2.30T	2.04T	1.80T
EBITDA	1.14T	1.13T	927.95B	1.18T	1.04T	1.07T
Net Income	33.08B	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.47T	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	739.68B	385.11B	457.80B	533.53B	849.70B	966.22B
Total Debt	4.65T	5.09T	5.46T	4.86T	4.81T	5.07T
Total Liabilities	7.34T	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	7.13T	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	931.56B	761.70B	464.90B	736.56B	897.97B	793.87B
Operating Cash Flow	1.13T	962.49B	640.32B	877.22B	1.02T	905.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-230.55B	-385.36B	-488.21B	-615.72B	-204.44B	392.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.10T	-638.44B	-254.04B	-600.59B	-962.06B	-981.00B

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4222.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4222 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4483.50, below the 50-day MA of 4359.02, and below the 200-day MA of 4274.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 43.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4540	76 Outperform	¥307.02B	11.03	9.05%	3.34%	10.51%	9.62%
4507	75 Outperform	¥2.39T	13.54	12.22%	2.26%	4.48%	11.08%
4523	74 Outperform	¥1.27T	25.80	5.75%	3.49%	6.79%	22.14%
4530	73 Outperform	¥310.46B	15.73	7.11%	2.48%	3.53%	38.23%
4502	66 Neutral	¥7.12T	208.00	0.54%	4.41%	-2.84%	-88.29%
4506	66 Neutral	¥901.06B	5.85	79.99%	―	29.92%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda Revises Financial Forecast for FY2025 Amid Strategic Shifts

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, anticipating a decrease in revenue and profits due to factors such as generic erosion of VYVANSE sales in the U.S. and impairment charges. Despite these challenges, the company expects to offset some losses with cost savings from R&D and efficiency programs. The revised outlook reflects a strategic shift towards new product launches and a transition to a new phase of business operations.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Reports Decline in Six-Month Financial Results, Adjusts Fiscal Year Forecasts

Takeda Pharmaceutical reported a decline in its financial performance for the six-month period ending September 30, 2025, with significant decreases in revenue, operating profit, and net profit compared to the previous year. Despite the downturn, the company has adjusted its forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, indicating a slight recovery in operating profit and net profit, although core financial measures are expected to see a low-single-digit decline.

Takeda Discontinues Cell Therapy Efforts to Refocus Investments

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has decided to discontinue its cell therapy research as part of a strategic portfolio prioritization process. The company plans to seek an external partner to advance its cell therapy platform technologies. This decision will result in an impairment loss of approximately JPY 58.0 billion, primarily related to intangible assets associated with the gamma delta T-cell therapy platform. Takeda will redirect its investments towards programs that promise transformative therapies, focusing on small molecules, biologics, and antibody-drug conjugates.

Takeda Announces Financial Reclassification to Enhance Capital Flexibility

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced a strategic financial reclassification, reversing general and other voluntary reserves to unappropriated retained earnings. This move, approved by the Board of Directors, aims to enable a more flexible capital policy by utilizing internal reserves accumulated over the years. The reclassification will not impact the company’s consolidated financial results, as it involves adjustments within the net assets section of the balance sheet.

Takeda’s Oveporexton Shows Promise in Phase 3 Narcolepsy Trials

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has presented promising data from its Phase 3 clinical trials of oveporexton (TAK-861), an investigational oral orexin receptor 2 agonist, at the World Sleep 2025 Congress. The studies demonstrated statistically significant improvements in narcolepsy type 1 symptoms, with no serious treatment-related adverse events reported, marking a potential breakthrough in addressing the underlying cause of this chronic neurological disease.