Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥6.63T
• Dividend Yield: 4.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 193.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -2.84%
• EPS Growth: -88.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -7.83
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,985,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,592,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,201,340
• PEG Ratio: -2.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,167.46
• Price Target Upside: 22.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 141.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥4.52T

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,385.00 ▲(3.86% Upside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score reflects a stable financial foundation with strong cash flow management and profitability metrics. However, the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns, and technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum. The earnings call highlighted both strategic advancements and significant challenges, impacting the overall outlook. The attractive dividend yield provides some offset to valuation concerns, but revenue growth and competitive pressures remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports Takeda's operational and financial stability, providing a solid foundation for future growth and investment in R&D.

Innovent Biologics Partnership

This strategic partnership enhances Takeda's oncology pipeline, potentially leading to new product launches and strengthening its competitive position in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Qdenga Vaccine Efficacy

The sustained efficacy of the Qdenga vaccine enhances Takeda's vaccine portfolio, potentially increasing market share and revenue in the long term.

Negative Factors

Impact of VYVANSE Generic Competition

The loss of exclusivity for VYVANSE significantly impacts revenue, highlighting the challenge of maintaining market share against generic competition.

ENTYVIO Growth Below Expectations

Slower growth of ENTYVIO due to competitive pressures may affect Takeda's revenue growth and market position in the gastrointestinal therapeutic area.

Transactional FX Headwinds

FX volatility poses a risk to financial performance, affecting profitability and potentially limiting Takeda's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is a global biopharmaceutical leader focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative medicines. The company operates in several therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and vaccines. Takeda's core products include treatments for various cancers, gastrointestinal disorders, and rare diseases, alongside a growing portfolio of vaccines and biologics.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which include both patented and generic medications. The company employs a revenue model that encompasses direct sales to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies, with a significant portion of revenue derived from its innovative and specialty drugs, particularly in oncology and rare diseases. Additionally, Takeda engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which can include co-development agreements and licensing deals, enhancing its product offerings and market reach. The company also benefits from its established presence in emerging markets, contributing to its overall earnings. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to fuel its pipeline of new drugs, which is crucial for sustaining long-term profitability.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co exhibits a stable financial profile with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. The income statement reflects solid margins, although revenue growth is a concern. The balance sheet is well-managed with a balanced leverage position, though ROE could be improved. Strong cash flow generation supports the company's financial health, providing a solid foundation for future growth. Addressing revenue growth and enhancing shareholder returns could further bolster the company's financial standing.

Income Statement

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -2.21%, which is a concern. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 60.54% and a stable net profit margin of 3.06%. The EBIT margin of 10.28% and EBITDA margin of 27.04% reflect decent operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability metrics are solid, the negative revenue growth trend needs attention.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co is relatively strong. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 1.95%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a stable capital structure. While the company manages its debt well, enhancing ROE could further strengthen its financial position.

Cash Flow

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's cash flow statement shows positive trends. The free cash flow growth rate is robust at 16.67%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, both of which suggest efficient cash conversion. Overall, the company demonstrates solid cash flow management, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.48T	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.36T	2.46T	2.32T	2.30T	2.04T	1.80T
EBITDA	1.20T	1.13T	927.95B	1.18T	1.04T	1.07T
Net Income	136.92B	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.00T	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	350.01B	385.11B	457.80B	533.53B	849.70B	966.22B
Total Debt	4.51T	5.09T	5.46T	4.86T	4.81T	5.07T
Total Liabilities	7.14T	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	6.87T	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	815.68B	761.70B	464.90B	736.56B	897.97B	793.87B
Operating Cash Flow	1.01T	962.49B	640.32B	877.22B	1.02T	905.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-262.42B	-385.36B	-488.21B	-615.72B	-204.44B	392.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.17T	-638.44B	-254.04B	-600.59B	-962.06B	-981.00B

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4222.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4222 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4232.45, below the 50-day MA of 4310.31, and above the 200-day MA of 4206.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -33.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4507	76 Outperform	$2.27T	12.85	12.22%	2.54%	4.48%	11.08%
4506	74 Outperform	$828.16B	5.35	79.99%	―	29.92%	―
4530	73 Outperform	¥298.49B	15.12	7.11%	2.57%	3.53%	38.23%
4540	73 Outperform	¥271.53B	9.77	9.05%	3.83%	14.60%	8.97%
4523	66 Neutral	$1.28T	25.44	5.75%	3.53%	6.79%	22.16%
4502	59 Neutral	¥6.63T	193.64	0.54%	4.63%	-2.84%	-88.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda Pharmaceutical Reports Decline in Revenue and Profit

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., a prominent player in the pharmaceutical industry, is known for its focus on research and development in areas such as oncology, gastroenterology, and rare diseases. The company recently released its earnings report for the six-month period ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a challenging financial performance. Takeda reported a decline in revenue to JPY 2,219.5 billion, a 6.9% decrease compared to the same period last year, primarily due to reduced sales in its neuroscience division and adverse foreign exchange impacts. Operating profit also fell by 27.7% to JPY 253.6 billion, while net profit dropped by 39.9% to JPY 112.5 billion. Despite these setbacks, Takeda’s management remains focused on strategic pipeline decisions and cost-saving measures. Looking ahead, the company anticipates a broadly flat core revenue and a low-single-digit decline in core operating profit and EPS for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, as it continues to navigate market challenges and focus on new product launches.

Takeda Revises Financial Forecast for FY2025 Amid Strategic Shifts

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, anticipating a decrease in revenue and profits due to factors such as generic erosion of VYVANSE sales in the U.S. and impairment charges. Despite these challenges, the company expects to offset some losses with cost savings from R&D and efficiency programs. The revised outlook reflects a strategic shift towards new product launches and a transition to a new phase of business operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Reports Decline in Six-Month Financial Results, Adjusts Fiscal Year Forecasts

Takeda Pharmaceutical reported a decline in its financial performance for the six-month period ending September 30, 2025, with significant decreases in revenue, operating profit, and net profit compared to the previous year. Despite the downturn, the company has adjusted its forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, indicating a slight recovery in operating profit and net profit, although core financial measures are expected to see a low-single-digit decline.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Discontinues Cell Therapy Efforts to Refocus Investments

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has decided to discontinue its cell therapy research as part of a strategic portfolio prioritization process. The company plans to seek an external partner to advance its cell therapy platform technologies. This decision will result in an impairment loss of approximately JPY 58.0 billion, primarily related to intangible assets associated with the gamma delta T-cell therapy platform. Takeda will redirect its investments towards programs that promise transformative therapies, focusing on small molecules, biologics, and antibody-drug conjugates.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces Financial Reclassification to Enhance Capital Flexibility

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced a strategic financial reclassification, reversing general and other voluntary reserves to unappropriated retained earnings. This move, approved by the Board of Directors, aims to enable a more flexible capital policy by utilizing internal reserves accumulated over the years. The reclassification will not impact the company’s consolidated financial results, as it involves adjustments within the net assets section of the balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda’s Oveporexton Shows Promise in Phase 3 Narcolepsy Trials

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has presented promising data from its Phase 3 clinical trials of oveporexton (TAK-861), an investigational oral orexin receptor 2 agonist, at the World Sleep 2025 Congress. The studies demonstrated statistically significant improvements in narcolepsy type 1 symptoms, with no serious treatment-related adverse events reported, marking a potential breakthrough in addressing the underlying cause of this chronic neurological disease.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4693.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.