Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.89T
• Dividend Yield: 4.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 7.45%
• EPS Growth: -25.77%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -66.00
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,962,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,885,740
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,632,766
• PEG Ratio: -1.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $5,090.64
• Price Target Upside: 17.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,606.00 ▲(6.45%Upside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and effective cash flow management. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and while the company offers a solid dividend yield, the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both growth and challenges. Investors should note the potential risks associated with product exclusivity losses and tax impacts.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Oral OX2R agonist oveporexton meets primary endpoints in two studies, showing promise in treatment effectiveness.

Market Potential

Takeda disclosed projections that rusfertide peak sales could reach $1-2bn, indicating strong market potential.

Regulatory Approvals

Oveporexton has been awarded Breakthrough Therapy designations in both China and the US, likely leading to priority review.

Negative Factors

Patent Expiry

Vyvanse going off patent will have long-term effects, impacting the company's performance.

Pricing Risks

Risks are associated with US drug price policy, which has not been accounted for in the earnings estimates.

Regulatory Challenges

The US’s 340B program and Medicare Part D redesign are estimated to have a significant financial impact on Takeda, totaling JPY130Bn for FY2025.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. generates revenue primarily through the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's key revenue streams include prescription drug sales across its core therapeutic areas, such as oncology, gastroenterology, and neuroscience. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to create innovative treatments that address unmet medical needs, which in turn drives sales growth. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Licensing agreements and the commercialization of co-developed drugs also contribute to its earnings. The company's global presence and strong distribution networks enable it to capture market share across different regions, further bolstering its revenue.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co exhibits a commendable financial performance with solid growth in revenue and cash flow, underpinned by strong operational efficiency. While the balance sheet is stable, attention should be given to managing debt levels. Overall, the company is in a healthy financial state, well-positioned for future growth.

Income Statement

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains healthy, though there was a slight decline in net profit margin, indicating potential cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting strong operational efficiency, albeit with some fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet depicts a stable financial position with a moderately high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting some reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is reasonable, showing effective use of shareholders' equity, though there could be improvements. The equity ratio indicates a solid asset base supported by equity.

Cash Flow

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co demonstrates strong cash flow management, with significant free cash flow growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio supports ongoing operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.36T	2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T
EBITDA	1.15T	874.60B	1.18T	1.18T	983.72B
Net Income	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	385.11B	457.80B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T
Total Debt	4.52T	4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T
Total Liabilities	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	761.70B	235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B
Operating Cash Flow	962.49B	716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T
Investing Cash Flow	-385.36B	-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B
Financing Cash Flow	-638.44B	-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4327.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4327 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4382.30, above the 50-day MA of 4314.00, and above the 200-day MA of 4193.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4502	62 Neutral	$6.89T	63.64	1.50%	4.53%	7.45%	-25.77%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.61B	0.11	-63.03%	2.07%	16.35%	0.29%
DNPUF	―	$3.08B	21.04	13.50%	―	―	―
ESALF	―	$7.98B	23.82	5.34%	0.15%	―	―
HTSUF	―	$1.97B	15.48	7.24%	2.14%	―	―
SGIOF	―	$15.15B	12.33	12.99%	0.16%	―	―
TSMRF	―	$1.90B	8.92	11.16%	0.14%	―	―

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda’s Oveporexton Shows Promise in Phase 3 Narcolepsy Studies

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced positive results from two pivotal Phase 3 studies of oveporexton (TAK-861) in treating narcolepsy type 1. The studies met all primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating statistically significant improvements across symptoms and reinforcing the potential of oveporexton to transform the standard of care. The drug was generally well-tolerated, and Takeda is advancing regulatory submissions to bring oveporexton to market quickly. This development marks a significant advancement in addressing the underlying cause of narcolepsy type 1 and positions Takeda for future growth in the orexin biology field.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Completes Treasury Share Disposal with Minor Adjustments

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has completed the disposal of treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan for employees outside Japan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares due to partial forfeiture of rights by some allottees. This change is expected to have an immaterial impact on the company’s full-year financials, indicating a stable operational outlook despite the adjustment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Director Assignments, Emphasizing Strong Governance

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced new assignments of directors following its 149th Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The board, comprised predominantly of external directors, underscores Takeda’s commitment to strong, independent governance. This governance model is crucial for aligning decisions with stakeholder interests and maintaining the company’s values. The new assignments include roles in the Nomination and Compensation Committees, further emphasizing the company’s focus on transparency and objectivity in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces Disposal of Treasury Shares for Global Employee Incentive Plan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced the disposal of 17,355,770 treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees outside Japan, valued at 75.25 billion yen. This initiative aims to align employee interests with shareholders, attract and retain talent, and balance risk and reward, potentially enhancing the company’s competitive positioning and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Shelf Registration for LTIP Support

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. announced its plan to withdraw a previous Shelf Registration Statement and file a new one in Japan to issue new shares or dispose of treasury shares. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees. The scheduled issue amount is up to JPY 220 billion, with an expected share dilution of around 1.1% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. This strategic decision allows Takeda to manage its equity more flexibly and aligns with its ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda and Protagonist Reveal Positive Phase 3 VERIFY Study Results

Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics announced the full 32-week results of their Phase 3 VERIFY study on rusfertide, presented at the ASCO Annual Meeting. The study, which targeted patients with polycythemia vera, successfully met its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating significant reductions in phlebotomy and improved hematocrit control. Despite the positive clinical outcomes, the impact on Takeda’s financial results for FY2025 is expected to be minimal.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Continues Stock Compensation Plans for Directors and Management

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company has announced the continuation of its stock compensation plans for directors and management in Japan, initially introduced in 2014 and 2016. These plans aim to align the interests of directors with shareholders by linking compensation to company performance, thereby enhancing corporate value and ensuring effective supervisory functions.

Takeda Reports Revenue Growth but Decline in Net Profit for FY 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, showing a 7.5% increase in revenue to 4,581,551 million JPY. Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a 25% decline in net profit attributable to owners, amounting to 107,928 million JPY. The company’s financial position reflects a decrease in total assets and equity, while cash flow from operating activities improved significantly. The company has also announced a dividend increase and provided forecasts for the next fiscal year, indicating a slight revenue decline but a substantial increase in operating profit and net profit.