Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.89T
• Dividend Yield: 4.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 7.45%
• EPS Growth: -25.77%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -66.00
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,961,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,118,160
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,910,613
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $5,038.65
• Price Target Upside: 15.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,489.00 ▲(3.22%Upside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score is primarily driven by strong financial performance and growth in its product portfolio. However, the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. The technical analysis reflects a mixed market sentiment, and the earnings call suggests both opportunities and challenges ahead.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Rusfertide achieved the primary endpoint as well as all key secondary endpoints in the Ph3 study.

Market Potential

Takeda disclosed projections that rusfertide peak sales could reach $1-2bn, indicating strong market potential.

Negative Factors

Patent Expiry

Vyvanse going off patent will have long-term effects, impacting the company's performance.

Regulatory Challenges

The US’s 340B program and Medicare Part D redesign are estimated to have a significant financial impact on Takeda, totaling JPY130Bn for FY2025.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a leading global biopharmaceutical company, headquartered in Japan, focusing on delivering life-transforming treatments. The company operates in a variety of therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, and vaccines. Takeda is committed to innovation and research, utilizing its extensive R&D capabilities to develop therapies that address unmet medical needs and enhance patients' quality of life.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda makes money primarily through the development, production, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue streams are driven by its diverse portfolio of prescription drugs and therapies, which are sold globally. Key revenue-generating products include treatments in oncology, rare diseases, and gastroenterology. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other biotech and pharmaceutical companies to enhance its research and development efforts, expand its product pipeline, and accelerate the commercialization of new treatments. The company's earnings are also supported by investments in cutting-edge technologies and innovation that facilitate the discovery and development of new therapeutic solutions.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co exhibits commendable financial performance with solid growth in revenue and cash flow, underpinned by strong operational efficiency. While the balance sheet is stable, attention should be given to managing debt levels.

Income Statement

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains healthy, though there was a slight decline in net profit margin, indicating potential cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting strong operational efficiency, albeit with some fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet depicts a stable financial position with a moderately high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting some reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is reasonable, showing effective use of shareholders' equity, though there could be improvements. The equity ratio indicates a solid asset base supported by equity.

Cash Flow

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co demonstrates strong cash flow management, with significant free cash flow growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio supports ongoing operational and financial stability.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
	Gross Profit
2.36T	2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T
	EBIT
523.11B	214.07B	490.50B	460.84B	509.27B
	EBITDA
1.15T	874.60B	1.18T	1.18T	983.72B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
385.11B	457.80B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T
	Total Assets
14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
	Total Debt
4.52T	4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T
	Net Debt
4.13T	4.39T	3.85T	3.50T	3.67T
	Total Liabilities
7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
	Stockholders Equity
6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
761.70B	235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B
	Operating Cash Flow
962.49B	716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T
	Investing Cash Flow
-385.36B	-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B
	Financing Cash Flow
-638.44B	-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4349.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4349 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4250.70, above the 50-day MA of 4235.62, and above the 200-day MA of 4155.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 40.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4507	80 Outperform	$2.19T	12.41	12.99%	2.33%	0.73%	7.75%
4530	71 Outperform	$317.32B	14.71	7.90%	1.98%	10.09%	63.28%
4523	69 Neutral	$1.14T	24.76	5.34%	3.64%	6.42%	10.82%
4540	69 Neutral	$258.06B	7.90	11.16%	3.03%	20.05%	94.28%
4502	65 Neutral	$6.89T	63.62	1.50%	4.43%	7.45%	-25.77%
4506	65 Neutral	¥420.34B	17.79	13.50%	―	26.79%	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.37B	3.26	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda Announces Disposal of Treasury Shares for Global Employee Incentive Plan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced the disposal of 17,355,770 treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees outside Japan, valued at 75.25 billion yen. This initiative aims to align employee interests with shareholders, attract and retain talent, and balance risk and reward, potentially enhancing the company’s competitive positioning and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Shelf Registration for LTIP Support

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. announced its plan to withdraw a previous Shelf Registration Statement and file a new one in Japan to issue new shares or dispose of treasury shares. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees. The scheduled issue amount is up to JPY 220 billion, with an expected share dilution of around 1.1% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. This strategic decision allows Takeda to manage its equity more flexibly and aligns with its ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda and Protagonist Reveal Positive Phase 3 VERIFY Study Results

Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics announced the full 32-week results of their Phase 3 VERIFY study on rusfertide, presented at the ASCO Annual Meeting. The study, which targeted patients with polycythemia vera, successfully met its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating significant reductions in phlebotomy and improved hematocrit control. Despite the positive clinical outcomes, the impact on Takeda’s financial results for FY2025 is expected to be minimal.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Continues Stock Compensation Plans for Directors and Management

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company has announced the continuation of its stock compensation plans for directors and management in Japan, initially introduced in 2014 and 2016. These plans aim to align the interests of directors with shareholders by linking compensation to company performance, thereby enhancing corporate value and ensuring effective supervisory functions.

Takeda Reports Revenue Growth but Decline in Net Profit for FY 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, showing a 7.5% increase in revenue to 4,581,551 million JPY. Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a 25% decline in net profit attributable to owners, amounting to 107,928 million JPY. The company’s financial position reflects a decrease in total assets and equity, while cash flow from operating activities improved significantly. The company has also announced a dividend increase and provided forecasts for the next fiscal year, indicating a slight revenue decline but a substantial increase in operating profit and net profit.

Takeda Completes Share Repurchase to Optimize Capital Structure

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has completed the acquisition of 11,823,500 of its own shares, amounting to a cost of JPY 49,977,956,800, as part of a resolution made by its Board of Directors. This move, executed through an open-market repurchase via a trust bank, is part of a broader strategy to acquire up to 28.5 million shares, reflecting Takeda’s efforts to optimize its capital structure and potentially increase shareholder value.

Takeda Updates on Share Repurchase Progress

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced an update on its share repurchase program, acquiring 4,513,800 shares of common stock at a cost of JPY 20,144,679,100 between March 1 and March 31, 2025. This acquisition is part of a broader plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 28.5 million shares, with a total acquisition cost of up to JPY 100 billion, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

Takeda Proposes Re-election of Directors Ahead of Leadership Transition

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced its intention to propose the re-election of all current directors, excluding Audit and Supervisory Committee Members, at its upcoming 149th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. This decision reflects the company’s strategy to maintain continuity in its leadership as it prepares for a significant leadership transition in 2026, when Julie Kim will succeed Christophe Weber as CEO. This move is expected to ensure stability and continued focus on its strategic goals, impacting its operations and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.