Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.25T
• Dividend Yield: 4.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 1.52%
• EPS Growth: -8.68%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 79.40
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,971,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,787,610
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,725,380
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,399.47
• Price Target Upside: 18.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,693.00 ▲(2.60% Upside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and strong earnings call results, particularly in its Growth and Launch Product portfolio. The company's robust cash flow management and dividend increase further support its financial health. However, the high P/E ratio and mixed technical indicators suggest caution. Addressing revenue growth challenges and maintaining momentum in its product portfolio will be key to improving its stock performance.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Rusfertide Phase III data in polycythemia vera came out better than management expected, with 73% of rusfertide patients needing zero phlebotomies vs. 22% of those on placebo.

Product Performance

Entyvio continues to grow faster than the market many years into its launch, and neither biosimilar step edits nor branded competition from IL-23s seem to yet have made a major dent.

Regulatory Recognition

Oveporexton has been awarded Breakthrough Therapy designations in both China and the US for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness in NT1 patients, so it will likely receive priority review.

Negative Factors

Financial Impact

The US’s 340B program and Medicare Part D redesign are estimated to have a significant financial impact on Takeda, totaling JPY130Bn for FY2025.

Government Initiatives

Entyvio faces potential pricing headwinds via two government initiatives: MFN and IRA.

Pricing Concerns

MFN poses a threat not just because of its direct implications, but also because of the way in which prices are determined for 340b.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. generates revenue primarily through the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's key revenue streams include prescription drug sales across its core therapeutic areas, such as oncology, gastroenterology, and neuroscience. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to create innovative treatments that address unmet medical needs, which in turn drives sales growth. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Licensing agreements and the commercialization of co-developed drugs also contribute to its earnings. The company's global presence and strong distribution networks enable it to capture market share across different regions, further bolstering its revenue.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co exhibits a stable financial profile with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. The income statement reflects solid margins, although revenue growth is a concern. The balance sheet is well-managed with a balanced leverage position, though ROE could be improved. Strong cash flow generation supports the company's financial health, providing a solid foundation for future growth. Addressing revenue growth and enhancing shareholder returns could further bolster the company's financial standing.

Income Statement

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -2.21%, which is a concern. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 60.54% and a stable net profit margin of 3.06%. The EBIT margin of 10.28% and EBITDA margin of 27.04% reflect decent operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability metrics are solid, the negative revenue growth trend needs attention.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co is relatively strong. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 1.95%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a stable capital structure. While the company manages its debt well, enhancing ROE could further strengthen its financial position.

Cash Flow

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co's cash flow statement shows positive trends. The free cash flow growth rate is robust at 16.67%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, both of which suggest efficient cash conversion. Overall, the company demonstrates solid cash flow management, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.48T	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.71T	2.36T	2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T
EBITDA	1.21T	1.15T	874.60B	1.18T	1.18T	983.72B
Net Income	136.92B	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.00T	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	419.18B	385.11B	457.80B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T
Total Debt	4.51T	4.52T	4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T
Total Liabilities	7.14T	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	6.87T	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	831.40B	761.70B	235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B
Operating Cash Flow	1.07T	962.49B	716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T
Investing Cash Flow	-243.56B	-367.06B	-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.28T	-751.42B	-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4574.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4574 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4459.00, above the 50-day MA of 4387.78, and above the 200-day MA of 4230.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 47.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4502	66 Neutral	¥7.25T	52.46	1.99%	4.29%	1.52%	-8.68%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.95B	-0.40	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
DNPUF	―	$4.41B	32.84	10.94%	―	―	―
ESALF	―	$9.58B	28.46	5.96%	3.29%	―	―
HTSUF	―	$2.15B	16.58	7.24%	2.37%	―	―
SGIOF	―	$15.50B	13.50	13.71%	4.28%	―	―
TSMRF	―	$1.95B	10.31	9.09%	4.12%	―	―

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda’s Narcolepsy Drug Study Abstract Accidentally Published

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced that an abstract for their Phase 3 study of the drug oveporexton (TAK-861) for narcolepsy type 1 was inadvertently published by the World Sleep Congress. The abstract was quickly removed, and Takeda plans to present the positive results of their Phase 3 studies at the upcoming World Sleep 2025 congress. The studies met all primary and secondary endpoints, highlighting oveporexton’s potential to transform the standard of care for narcolepsy type 1. Takeda does not expect this incident to significantly impact its financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Reports Mixed Financial Results for Q2 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported its consolidated financial results for the three-month period ending June 30, 2025. The company experienced a decline in revenue by 8.4% compared to the previous year, but saw an increase in operating profit and net profit by 11.0% and 30.4% respectively. The company maintains its management guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with expectations of broadly flat growth in core revenue, core operating profit, and core EPS.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda’s Oveporexton Shows Promise in Phase 3 Narcolepsy Studies

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced positive results from two pivotal Phase 3 studies of oveporexton (TAK-861) in treating narcolepsy type 1. The studies met all primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating statistically significant improvements across symptoms and reinforcing the potential of oveporexton to transform the standard of care. The drug was generally well-tolerated, and Takeda is advancing regulatory submissions to bring oveporexton to market quickly. This development marks a significant advancement in addressing the underlying cause of narcolepsy type 1 and positions Takeda for future growth in the orexin biology field.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Completes Treasury Share Disposal with Minor Adjustments

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has completed the disposal of treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan for employees outside Japan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares due to partial forfeiture of rights by some allottees. This change is expected to have an immaterial impact on the company’s full-year financials, indicating a stable operational outlook despite the adjustment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Director Assignments, Emphasizing Strong Governance

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced new assignments of directors following its 149th Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The board, comprised predominantly of external directors, underscores Takeda’s commitment to strong, independent governance. This governance model is crucial for aligning decisions with stakeholder interests and maintaining the company’s values. The new assignments include roles in the Nomination and Compensation Committees, further emphasizing the company’s focus on transparency and objectivity in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces Disposal of Treasury Shares for Global Employee Incentive Plan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co announced the disposal of 17,355,770 treasury shares under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees outside Japan, valued at 75.25 billion yen. This initiative aims to align employee interests with shareholders, attract and retain talent, and balance risk and reward, potentially enhancing the company’s competitive positioning and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda Announces New Shelf Registration for LTIP Support

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. announced its plan to withdraw a previous Shelf Registration Statement and file a new one in Japan to issue new shares or dispose of treasury shares. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for employees. The scheduled issue amount is up to JPY 220 billion, with an expected share dilution of around 1.1% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. This strategic decision allows Takeda to manage its equity more flexibly and aligns with its ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda and Protagonist Reveal Positive Phase 3 VERIFY Study Results

Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics announced the full 32-week results of their Phase 3 VERIFY study on rusfertide, presented at the ASCO Annual Meeting. The study, which targeted patients with polycythemia vera, successfully met its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating significant reductions in phlebotomy and improved hematocrit control. Despite the positive clinical outcomes, the impact on Takeda’s financial results for FY2025 is expected to be minimal.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Buy with a Yen5500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.