Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥8.31T
• Dividend Yield: 4.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 72.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: -2.84%
• EPS Growth: -88.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 65.74
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,987,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,483,280
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,345,693
• PEG Ratio: -2.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,450.00
• Price Target Upside: 29.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥5,661.00 ▲(34.08% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability and cash generation, but is held back by sharply compressed net profitability and very low ROE. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is a notable drag due to the very high P/E despite an attractive dividend. Earnings-call commentary was mixed, with expected H2 improvement and pipeline progress offset by competitive and FX pressures.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Consistently high operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, sustain dividends, and pay down debt. Strong cash conversion versus net income supports investment and balance-sheet resilience even if reported earnings remain volatile.

Renewal via launch-product growth

Launch products now constitute the majority of revenue and are growing, indicating successful portfolio renewal. This shifts reliance away from legacy franchises and provides a repeatable structural growth driver as new launches scale across global markets.

Strategic oncology pipeline partnership

The Innovent collaboration brings late-stage and differentiated oncology assets, de‑risking internal R&D and accelerating potential new commercial opportunities. This enhances long-term pipeline depth and potential high-margin revenue streams if trials succeed.

Negative Factors

Compressed net profitability and low ROE

Very low net margins and ROE indicate limited shareholder returns and weak earnings quality despite decent gross/EBITDA margins. If net income fails to recover, the balance sheet’s large equity base will struggle to compound value over the medium term.

Major revenue loss from VYVANSE generics

Loss of exclusivity for a major product is a structural revenue hit that reduces cash flow and market position in that franchise. Without immediate replacement launches or offsetting growth, this diminishes sustainable top-line and profit bases over the medium term.

Earnings hit from impairments and FX volatility

Large impairment charges and recurring FX exposure materially depress reported profits and undermine return metrics. Impairments reflect strategic write-offs that reduce future earnings potential, while persistent FX swings add unpredictability to operating profit sustainability.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is a global biopharmaceutical leader focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative medicines. The company operates in several therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and vaccines. Takeda's core products include treatments for various cancers, gastrointestinal disorders, and rare diseases, alongside a growing portfolio of vaccines and biologics.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which include both patented and generic medications. The company employs a revenue model that encompasses direct sales to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies, with a significant portion of revenue derived from its innovative and specialty drugs, particularly in oncology and rare diseases. Additionally, Takeda engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which can include co-development agreements and licensing deals, enhancing its product offerings and market reach. The company also benefits from its established presence in emerging markets, contributing to its overall earnings. Takeda invests heavily in research and development to fuel its pipeline of new drugs, which is crucial for sustaining long-term profitability.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable revenue (~+1.1% TTM) with solid gross (~56%) and EBITDA (~26%) margins and strong operating/free cash flow (TTM FCF ~¥0.93T). However, net profitability has compressed to under 1% TTM and ROE is very low (~0.5%), which materially weakens earnings quality despite manageable leverage (debt-to-equity improving to ~0.65).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is essentially stable (~+1.1% growth), while gross margin remains solid (~56%) and EBITDA margin is healthy (~26%). The key weakness is profitability: net margin has compressed to under 1% in TTM versus ~2.4% in FY2025 and ~7.9% in FY2023, indicating higher costs/charges and reduced earnings quality despite decent operating profitability (EBIT margin ~8–9% in recent periods).

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a large pharma profile, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.65 in TTM from ~0.73 in FY2025 and ~0.90 in FY2021, supported by a sizable equity base. The main concern is muted returns: return on equity is very low in TTM (~0.5%) and down versus prior years, reflecting the sharp drop in net income and limiting the balance sheet’s ability to compound shareholder value if earnings don’t recover.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM operating cash flow (~¥1.12T) and free cash flow (~¥0.93T) are strong in absolute terms and free cash flow meaningfully exceeds reported net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.83), suggesting solid cash conversion. Offsetting this, free cash flow is slightly down year over year in TTM (~-3.6%), and cash flow as a share of revenue remains moderate (operating cash flow to revenue ~0.53), indicating some pressure on cash efficiency despite robust yen generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.46T	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.51T	2.46T	2.32T	2.30T	2.04T	1.80T
EBITDA	1.34T	1.13T	927.95B	1.18T	1.04T	1.07T
Net Income	112.93B	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.41T	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	761.94B	385.11B	457.80B	533.53B	849.70B	966.22B
Total Debt	4.85T	5.09T	5.46T	4.86T	4.81T	5.07T
Total Liabilities	7.76T	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	7.64T	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	931.22B	761.70B	464.90B	736.56B	897.97B	793.87B
Operating Cash Flow	1.12T	962.49B	640.32B	877.22B	1.02T	905.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-345.48B	-385.36B	-488.21B	-615.72B	-204.44B	392.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-639.76B	-638.44B	-254.04B	-600.59B	-962.06B	-981.00B

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4222.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4222 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5071.40, below the 50-day MA of 4781.14, and below the 200-day MA of 4379.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 105.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4540	76 Outperform	¥312.38B	11.22	9.05%	3.30%	10.51%	9.62%
4507	75 Outperform	¥2.79T	13.86	12.22%	2.22%	4.48%	11.08%
4523	74 Outperform	¥1.21T	24.63	5.75%	3.51%	6.79%	22.14%
4530	73 Outperform	¥464.19B	22.99	7.11%	2.43%	3.53%	38.23%
4502	66 Neutral	¥8.31T	72.61	0.54%	4.11%	-2.84%	-88.29%
4506	63 Neutral	¥912.58B	8.29	79.99%	―	29.92%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda Posts Lower Nine-Month Revenue but Higher Profit, Lifts Dividend and Trims Growth Outlook

Takeda reported a 3.3% year-on-year decline in revenue to ¥3.41 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, while operating profit edged up 1.2% and net profit attributable to owners rose 2.4% to ¥216.1 billion, supported by higher profit before tax and a sharp increase in total comprehensive income. Core operating profit fell 3.4%, and Core EPS declined to ¥428, but the company’s equity position strengthened, with total assets and equity attributable to owners increasing and the equity ratio improving to 49.6%, alongside a planned dividend increase to a full-year total of ¥200 per share for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.

For the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Takeda now forecasts a modest 1.1% decline in both reported and Core revenue to ¥4.53 trillion but expects operating profit to grow 19.7% and net profit attributable to owners to jump 42.7%, with Core operating profit and Core EPS both projected to decline slightly. Management has revised its guidance to indicate low-single-digit declines in Core revenue, Core operating profit and Core EPS on a constant exchange rate basis, signaling a near-term focus on profit resilience and shareholder returns in a challenging revenue environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen5496.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda’s Oral TYK2 Inhibitor Zasocitinib Delivers Strong Phase 3 Psoriasis Results

Takeda reported positive topline results from two pivotal Phase 3 trials of zasocitinib (TAK-279), a once-daily, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, where the drug met all primary and 44 ranked secondary endpoints and showed superiority to placebo and the active comparator apremilast on key skin clearance measures. More than half of treated patients achieved clear or almost clear skin (PASI 90) and about 30% achieved completely clear skin (PASI 100) by week 16 with a safety profile consistent with prior studies, reinforcing zasocitinib’s potential as a leading oral psoriasis therapy; Takeda plans regulatory submissions starting in fiscal 2026 and is extending development of the drug into psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease and other indications, although the Phase 3 results are not expected to affect its current full-year financial forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4898.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.

Takeda and Protagonist Showcase Promising Rusfertide Results at ASH 2025

Takeda and Protagonist Therapeutics presented new 52-week data from the Phase 3 VERIFY study at the ASH 2025 meeting, showing rusfertide’s sustained efficacy in controlling hematocrit levels in polycythemia vera patients. The study results reinforce rusfertide’s potential as a new standard of care, demonstrating a significant reduction in phlebotomy needs and maintaining hematocrit control, which is crucial for preventing thrombotic events and alleviating symptoms in patients.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4502) stock is a Hold with a Yen4898.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co stock, see the JP:4502 Stock Forecast page.