Welby Inc. (4438) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.33B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 16.19%
• EPS Growth: -4.42%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 54
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -20.79
• Shares Outstanding: 8,275,582
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,910
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥328.00 ▲(16.31% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. Technical analysis provides some neutral signals, but valuation remains poor due to negative earnings. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Business Model Strength

The SaaS model provides steady, predictable revenue through subscription fees, enhancing long-term financial stability and customer retention.

Market Position

Specialization in healthcare tech positions Welby Inc. to capitalize on growing demand for digital health solutions, supporting sustained market relevance.

Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance product offerings and market penetration, fostering growth and competitive advantage in the healthcare sector.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue indicates potential market challenges or competitive pressures, threatening long-term growth and financial health.

Cash Flow Issues

Persistent cash flow issues can limit operational flexibility and investment capacity, hindering future growth and stability.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability challenges highlight operational inefficiencies, impacting long-term viability and shareholder value.

Welby Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Welby Inc. provides digital health solutions that help patients to get medical care services. The company offers services in the areas of diabetes mellitus, lifestyle related disease, mental illness, autoimmune disease, neurological disease, rare disease, oncology, and pain. It also engages in the medical data survey business; and operates Welby My Carte platform. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Welby Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its software solutions and subscription-based services. The company operates on a SaaS (Software as a Service) model, where healthcare organizations pay a recurring fee to access and utilize its platforms. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for its software products, subscription fees for ongoing service and support, and fees for additional features or modules that customers can opt to integrate into their existing systems. Additionally, Welby Inc. has established partnerships with healthcare providers and technology firms to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, which contribute significantly to its earnings.

Welby Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Welby Inc. is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. While the balance sheet remains relatively strong due to high equity, the company struggles with cash flow generation and operational efficiency. Continued focus on improving profitability and cash flow is essential for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

Welby Inc. has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the past few years, with a notable drop from 2022 to 2023. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly, which could pose a risk if the trend continues. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, impacting overall shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Welby Inc. has faced challenges in generating positive operating cash flow, with significant negative free cash flow over the years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting difficulties in converting earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	630.81M	528.04M	575.00M	1.05B	1.14B	864.64M
Gross Profit	455.08M	379.92M	376.00M	755.44M	683.91M	506.30M
EBITDA	-564.74M	-792.75M	-499.97M	40.29M	-127.70M	-309.28M
Net Income	-744.65M	-804.60M	-505.00M	33.91M	-130.68M	-353.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	966.27M	1.17B	1.21B	1.40B	1.39B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	567.83M	740.43M	883.00M	830.82M	960.72M	1.10B
Total Debt	235.00M	200.00M	1.00M	8.35M	15.49M	22.63M
Total Liabilities	365.43M	328.90M	88.00M	121.40M	134.83M	162.60M
Stockholders Equity	565.27M	810.02M	1.09B	1.27B	1.26B	1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-776.25M	-177.00M	-146.86M	-115.46M	-155.09M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-603.63M	-174.00M	-114.11M	-95.95M	-110.97M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-235.84M	-114.39M	-7.04M	-34.56M	-19.48M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	696.54M	341.25M	-8.74M	-7.14M	20.00M

Welby Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 282.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4438, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 282 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 287.15, below the 50-day MA of 305.86, and below the 200-day MA of 332.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4438.

Welby Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3939	76 Outperform	¥25.75B	23.18	―	1.38%	9.85%	20.83%
6545	74 Outperform	¥3.44B	13.78	―	1.88%	6.68%	2.86%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
4438	48 Neutral	¥2.33B	-3.35	―	―	16.19%	-4.42%
4263	45 Neutral	¥14.22B	-55.46	―	―	39.30%	32.06%
6034	45 Neutral	¥3.58B	-20.50	―	―	1.51%	-13.66%
3902	43 Neutral	¥65.75B	-152.46	―	0.39%	6.17%	-8918.66%