Welby Inc. (4438) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.71B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: 15.50%
• EPS Growth: -31.31%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 54
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -9.17
• Shares Outstanding: 8,275,582
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,920
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,840
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥343.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥343.00 ▲(4.89% Upside)

Welby Inc. faces significant financial and operational challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses weighing heavily on its score. Technical analysis suggests a potential bearish trend, while negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield make valuation unattractive. Focus on improving profitability and cash flow is crucial for future recovery.

Positive Factors

Strong Equity Position

A strong equity position indicates financial stability, providing a buffer against potential financial downturns and enabling future investments.

Revenue Diversification

Diversified revenue streams reduce dependency on a single source, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations and supporting sustainable growth.

Gross Profit Margin

A strong gross profit margin suggests efficient cost management and pricing power, contributing positively to long-term profitability despite current challenges.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates potential market share loss and challenges in product adoption, necessitating strategic initiatives to reverse the trend.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow highlights operational inefficiencies and limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting long-term sustainability.

Operational Inefficiencies

Operational inefficiencies, as indicated by negative margins, suggest the need for cost optimization and process improvements to enhance profitability.

Welby Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Welby Inc. (4438) is a technology-driven company specializing in innovative healthcare solutions. Operating primarily in the digital health sector, Welby focuses on developing software applications and platforms that enhance patient engagement, streamline healthcare delivery, and improve health outcomes. The company's core products include mobile health applications, data analytics tools, and telehealth services, aimed at both healthcare providers and patients.

How the Company Makes Money

Welby Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams. Primarily, the company earns money by offering subscription-based services for its digital health platforms, which healthcare providers pay for to access tools that improve patient care and operational efficiency. Additionally, Welby monetizes its mobile applications through in-app purchases and advertising. The company may also enter into partnerships with healthcare organizations and pharmaceutical companies, which can provide a steady income through collaborative projects and licensing agreements. Furthermore, government grants and funding for health technology innovation can contribute to its financial growth, especially in projects that align with public health initiatives.

Welby Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Welby Inc. is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. Although the balance sheet remains strong due to high equity, the company struggles with cash flow generation and operational efficiency. Continued focus on improving profitability and cash flow is essential for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

Welby Inc. has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the past few years, with a notable drop from 2022 to 2023. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly, which could pose a risk if the trend continues. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, impacting overall shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Welby Inc. has faced challenges in generating positive operating cash flow, with significant negative free cash flow over the years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting difficulties in converting earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	545.99M	528.04M	575.00M	1.05B	1.14B	864.64M
Gross Profit	394.31M	379.92M	376.00M	755.44M	683.91M	506.30M
EBITDA	-674.21M	-792.75M	-499.97M	40.29M	-127.70M	-309.28M
Net Income	-844.88M	-804.60M	-505.00M	33.91M	-130.68M	-353.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	978.41M	1.17B	1.21B	1.40B	1.39B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	666.37M	740.43M	883.00M	830.82M	960.72M	1.10B
Total Debt	200.00M	200.00M	1.00M	8.35M	15.49M	22.63M
Total Liabilities	294.41M	328.90M	88.00M	121.40M	134.83M	162.60M
Stockholders Equity	649.77M	810.02M	1.09B	1.27B	1.26B	1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-776.25M	-177.00M	-146.86M	-115.46M	-155.09M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-603.63M	-174.00M	-114.11M	-95.95M	-110.97M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-235.84M	235.61M	-7.04M	-34.56M	-19.48M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	696.54M	341.25M	-8.74M	-7.14M	20.00M

Welby Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 327.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4438, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 327 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.95, below the 50-day MA of 345.14, and below the 200-day MA of 343.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4438.

Welby Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6545	74 Outperform	¥3.42B	15.26		1.89%	5.27%	12.22%
3939	72 Outperform	¥24.14B	23.73		1.28%	13.39%	12.00%
6034	52 Neutral	¥4.01B	―		―	-2.66%	-913.85%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$8.02B	-0.39	-43.38%	2.20%	22.34%	-2.13%
4263	45 Neutral	¥14.89B	―		―	35.15%	16.85%
4438	44 Neutral	¥2.71B	―		―	15.50%	-31.31%
3902	43 Neutral	¥22.11B	4,465.71		1.15%	-0.58%	-260.22%