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Medley, Inc. (JP:4480)
:4480

Medley (4480) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4480

Medley

(4480)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,897.00
▼(-18.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages and bearish momentum) and elevated valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield data). Financial performance is mixed: strong revenue growth and positive cash flow are outweighed by sharp 2025 margin compression and increased leverage.
Positive Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth
Sustained high top-line growth over multiple years signals expanding product adoption and market penetration. Durable revenue momentum increases scale, supports reinvestment in services and R&D, and provides a structural runway to improve unit economics over the medium term.
High Gross Margin
A ~63% gross margin indicates meaningful pricing power or a differentiated, low-cost delivery model in healthcare information services. This gross-profit buffer can sustain operating investment, absorb competitive pressure, and underpins long-term margin recovery if operating expenses are managed.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Consistent positive free cash flow and near-par earnings-to-cash conversion provide internal funding for capex, working capital and debt service. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports strategic initiatives over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Net Margin Compression
A sharp drop in net margin materially weakens profitability despite healthy gross margins, suggesting rising operating costs, one-off charges, or adverse mix. If persistent, this reduces retained earnings, limits reinvestment capacity, and undermines long-term return on capital.
Rising Leverage
Material increase in leverage and a shrinking equity cushion raise financial risk and constrain flexibility. Higher debt raises interest and covenant pressures, elevates downside risk in cyclicality, and can limit the company's ability to fund M&A or absorb further margin volatility.
Cash Flow Volatility
Declines and variability in free cash flow and modest coverage ratios indicate operational or working-capital swings. Persistent volatility reduces predictability of internal funding, complicates capital planning and increases the chance management must access markets during adverse conditions.

Medley (4480) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Medley Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedley, Inc. operates platforms for recruitment and medical businesses in Japan. It operates through three segments: HR Platform Business, Medical Platform Business, and New Services. The company manages JobMedley, a human resource recruitment system for medical and healthcare, and related businesses; CLINICS Telemedicine, a telemedicine system for patients and medical institutions; CLINICS, a cloud medical support system; Pharms pharmacy window support systems; and MEDLEY, a medical information service for patients, as well as Kaigo-no Honne, a website to search nursing care facilities. It also conducts proof-of-concept testing for pharms. Medley, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedley generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its telehealth platform, where healthcare providers pay for access to the software and services that facilitate virtual care. Additionally, the company earns income from per-visit fees charged to patients for virtual consultations. Key revenue streams include partnerships with healthcare organizations and insurance companies that integrate Medley's services into their offerings, as well as monetization of data insights gathered from patient interactions to improve healthcare delivery and outcomes. The company's growth is further supported by strategic collaborations with technology firms to enhance its platform capabilities and expand its market reach.

Medley Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year revenue growth and healthy gross margin (~63% in 2025) are positives, but profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025 (net margin down to ~2.7% from ~9.5% in 2024) and leverage rose materially (debt-to-equity ~1.09 in 2025 vs ~0.75 in 2024). Cash flow remains positive with decent earnings-to-cash conversion, but recent volatility and margin compression reduce overall financial quality.
Income Statement
66
Positive
Revenue growth has been strong over the period (from ~¥6.8B in 2020 to ~¥36.8B in 2025), with 2025 showing ~11% growth. Profitability, however, has weakened meaningfully: net margin fell from ~9.5% (2024) to ~2.7% (2025) and operating margin also stepped down, despite gross margin staying healthy (~63% in 2025). Overall, solid top-line momentum and good gross profitability are offset by a sharp decline in bottom-line performance in the latest year.
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Leverage increased materially in the latest year: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.75 (2024) to ~1.09 (2025), and equity declined while debt rose. The balance sheet was relatively lightly levered earlier (e.g., 2022–2023), so the recent shift suggests a higher financial risk profile going forward. Asset base remains sizable (~¥41.3B in 2025), but the higher leverage and lower equity cushion are key weaknesses.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash generation is positive, with 2025 operating cash flow of ~¥3.5B and free cash flow of ~¥3.3B. Free cash flow broadly tracks earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.94 in 2025 and ~0.97 in 2024), indicating generally decent earnings-to-cash conversion. That said, free cash flow declined in 2024 (negative growth), and cash flow relative to operating profit remains modest based on the provided coverage ratios, suggesting volatility or working-capital/investment swings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue33.06B36.79B29.30B20.53B14.19B10.86B
Gross Profit20.74B23.19B18.92B13.59B9.72B6.99B
EBITDA5.03B4.61B4.00B4.50B2.14B1.25B
Net Income1.44B975.00M2.80B2.57B1.02B563.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets47.42B41.25B45.20B25.43B21.81B20.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.52B8.57B19.00B15.35B14.42B14.29B
Total Debt18.27B16.09B15.18B1.66B2.38B3.11B
Total Liabilities29.36B26.45B24.98B7.79B6.64B6.16B
Stockholders Equity18.07B14.80B20.21B17.55B15.08B13.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.003.28B2.38B3.47B1.64B796.39M
Operating Cash Flow0.003.49B2.45B3.87B2.01B1.04B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-7.13B-10.72B-1.66B-751.00M-3.29B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-6.78B11.90B-1.22B-927.00M2.22B

Medley Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2340.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2311.96
Negative
100DMA
2325.52
Negative
200DMA
2616.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-117.33
Positive
RSI
37.93
Neutral
STOCH
23.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4480, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2340 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2168.75, above the 50-day MA of 2311.96, and below the 200-day MA of 2616.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -117.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4480.

Medley Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
¥1.17T23.5012.15%1.01%33.50%17.26%
70
Outperform
¥11.22B29.025.30%0.09%-48.79%
63
Neutral
¥65.48B226.810.39%6.17%-8918.66%
63
Neutral
¥273.19B39.510.43%20.55%48.62%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
¥64.95B64.708.79%31.95%-40.95%
45
Neutral
¥3.02B-5.6016.19%-4.42%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4480
Medley
1,984.00
-918.00
-31.63%
JP:2413
M3
1,718.00
-52.99
-2.99%
JP:3902
Medical Data Vision Co.Ltd.
1,679.00
1,274.00
314.57%
JP:4438
Welby Inc.
365.00
61.00
20.07%
JP:4483
JMDC Inc.
4,175.00
1,188.71
39.81%
JP:9341
GENOVA Inc.
629.00
-387.54
-38.12%

Medley Corporate Events

Medley Maintains Board Lineup and Sets 2026 Management Structure
Feb 13, 2026

Medley has proposed reappointing its existing board, including President and CEO Kohei Takiguchi and CFO Ryo Kawahara, with all internal and independent external directors slated for re-nomination at the upcoming shareholders’ meeting in March 2026. The company also set its executive and management structure for the fiscal year ending December 2026, clarifying leadership roles across its HR and medical platform businesses, finance, legal and compliance, and corporate functions, signaling continuity in governance and a stable organizational framework as it executes its business strategy.

The new structure will see Takiguchi continue as representative director and CEO, with Ishizaki leading the HR Platform Business and Shishido and Yamazaki heading technology for the Medical Platform Business. Medley is reinforcing specialized roles such as CHRO, GC, VPoE, and CFO positions within both HR and medical platforms, which is likely aimed at strengthening operational oversight, technological development, and corporate governance to support long-term growth and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Medley Posts Strong Sales Growth but Profit Slumps, Eyes Rebound in 2026
Feb 13, 2026

Medley reported consolidated net sales of ¥36.79 billion for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025, up 25.5% year on year, while EBITDA rose 17.2%, but operating profit fell 7.6% and profit attributable to owners of parent dropped 65.1% amid a sharp decline in ordinary profit. Total assets shrank to ¥41.25 billion and the equity ratio slid to 35.9%, reflecting heavier cash outflows from investing and financing activities, though the company ended the year with ¥8.58 billion in cash and cash equivalents and again paid no dividends.

The company expects a rebound in profitability in 2026, forecasting a 26.1% rise in net sales to ¥46.4 billion and an 84.5% jump in profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥1.8 billion, with a stronger operating margin. Medley also streamlined its consolidation scope by deconsolidating three subsidiaries, a move that could sharpen its strategic focus, while maintaining a zero‑dividend policy to prioritize reinvestment and balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Medley Reports No Share Buybacks in January Under Ongoing Repurchase Program
Feb 2, 2026

Medley, Inc., listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, has an authorized share repurchase program for its common stock, allowing buybacks of up to 1.5 million shares, or 4.8% of its outstanding shares excluding treasury stock, for a total of up to ¥3 billion between November 17, 2025 and March 31, 2026. This program is part of the company’s broader capital management strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value through market purchases of its own shares.

In its latest progress update, Medley reported that it did not repurchase any shares during the period from January 1 to January 31, 2026, leaving both the number of shares bought and the amount spent at zero for that month, while cumulative repurchases under the current authorization totaled 529,100 shares for approximately ¥1.29 billion as of January 31, 2026. The pause in buybacks during January suggests a tactical approach to timing and market conditions, while the substantial amount already deployed indicates an ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders within the authorized timeframe.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Medley Secures ¥5 Billion in Unsecured Loans for Working Capital and Share Buybacks
Jan 22, 2026

Medley, Inc. has resolved at its board meeting to secure a total of ¥5 billion in new financing through unsecured loans from Mizuho Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, with a five-year term and equal principal repayment structure. The funds will be used for long-term working capital and the acquisition of treasury shares, a move that may support capital efficiency and shareholder value, while the company expects no significant impact on its current fiscal year consolidated results but has committed to further disclosure if the outlook changes materially.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Medley Reports Progress on Ongoing Share Repurchase Program
Jan 5, 2026

Medley, Inc. reported progress on its ongoing share repurchase program, disclosing that it bought back 234,500 common shares for a total of 566.9 million yen via market transactions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025. Under the broader repurchase authorization approved by the board in November 2025—allowing buybacks of up to 1.5 million shares or 3.0 billion yen through March 31, 2026—the company has, as of December 31, 2025, cumulatively repurchased 529,100 shares for approximately 1.29 billion yen, signaling continued execution of its capital allocation policy and a focus on enhancing shareholder value through reducing shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Medley, Inc. Reports Progress on Share Repurchase Program
Dec 1, 2025

Medley, Inc. has announced the progress of its share repurchase program, which was resolved at a board meeting on November 14, 2025. The company repurchased 294,600 common shares for a total of 723,474,500 yen through market transactions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between November 17 and November 30, 2025. This initiative is part of a larger plan to repurchase up to 1.5 million shares, amounting to 3,000 million yen, by March 31, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4480) stock is a Hold with a Yen2772.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medley stock, see the JP:4480 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026