Accrete, Inc. (4395) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥9.50B
• Dividend Yield: 0.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 166.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 17.63%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 98
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 20.98
• Shares Outstanding: 7,780,158
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 189,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 166,063
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.89
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,270.00 ▼(-15.22% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is primarily weighed down by the latest cash flow deterioration (negative operating and free cash flow in 2025) and profitability volatility, despite strong 2025 revenue growth and a generally manageable leverage profile. Offsetting these risks, technical trends and momentum are positive, while valuation is neither clearly cheap nor strongly supported by dividends.

Positive Factors

Revenue re-acceleration in 2025

A clear rebound to +18.5% revenue growth in 2025 indicates product-market fit and improving sales execution after prior weakness. Durable top-line momentum supports investment in product development and scaling, and increases the likelihood of sustained traction across enterprise customers over the next several quarters.

Diversified recurring revenue mix

A business model combining licenses, subscriptions and consulting gives recurring revenue, customer stickiness, and multiple monetization paths. This diversification reduces dependency on one channel, smooths revenue volatility, and supports long-term gross revenue visibility and upsell potential across clients.

Exposure to secular AI/ML demand

Operating in AI/ML and serving finance, healthcare and logistics aligns the company with multi-year structural tailwinds. Broad industry applicability expands total addressable market, lowers client concentration risk, and supports sustained demand for analytics and automation solutions as enterprises continue digital transformation efforts.

Negative Factors

Sharp cash-flow deterioration

A sudden swing to large negative operating and free cash flow is a durable red flag: it strains liquidity and raises near-term funding risk. Absent a quick restoration of cash generation, the company may need external financing or to curtail investment, both of which can impair strategic execution over the coming quarters.

Profitability volatility & margin compression

Material margin swings and long-term gross margin compression undermine profitability resilience. With volatile net margins, the firm has less buffer to absorb higher costs or interest expense, making earnings and cash generation less predictable and increasing execution risk until margins sustainably recover.

Higher absolute debt in 2025

A large increase in absolute debt raises servicing and refinancing risk despite reported leverage ratios. Elevated debt requires consistent cash generation to avoid liquidity stress; combined with the recent cash-flow swing, higher borrowings amplify the company's financial vulnerability over the next several quarters.

Accrete, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Accrete, Inc. (4395) is a technology company specializing in advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions. The company operates primarily in the software sector, providing innovative tools and platforms that enhance data analysis and decision-making processes for businesses across various industries, including finance, healthcare, and logistics. Accrete's core products include AI-driven analytics software, data integration solutions, and customized machine learning algorithms designed to optimize operational efficiency and drive business growth.

How the Company Makes Money

Accrete, Inc. generates revenue through a combination of software licensing, subscription services, and consulting fees. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of software licenses for its AI analytics platforms, which companies purchase to integrate into their existing systems. Additionally, Accrete offers subscription-based access to its cloud-based services, providing continuous updates and support. The company also earns revenue from consulting services, helping clients implement AI solutions tailored to their specific needs. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and industry leaders further enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings through co-development projects and joint marketing efforts.

Accrete, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth re-accelerated strongly in 2025 (+18.5%), and leverage is generally manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.41). However, profitability has been volatile and 2025 cash generation is the key concern, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning sharply negative (~-499M and ~-503M), increasing near-term funding risk alongside higher debt in 2025.

Income Statement

Top-line momentum is solid, with revenue accelerating to +18.5% in 2025 after modest growth in 2024 (+0.2%) and a decline in 2023 (-12.2%). Profitability, however, has been volatile: 2022 showed very strong margins (net margin ~13.8%), but 2023–2024 were much weaker (net margin ~0.6% to ~1.2%) before improving in 2025 (net margin ~3.5%). Gross margin has also compressed materially versus 2020–2022 levels, suggesting either pricing pressure or higher delivery costs even as scale improves.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable overall, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.41 in 2025 (down from ~0.81 in 2022) and equity expanding meaningfully alongside asset growth. That said, debt increased sharply in 2025 (to ~1.43B from ~0.50B in 2024), which raises the bar for sustained profitability and cash generation going forward. Returns on equity were strong in 2022 but much lower in 2023–2024, highlighting earnings volatility despite a generally reasonable capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated materially in 2025, with operating cash flow turning negative (~-499M) and free cash flow also negative (~-503M), a major reversal from positive operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024 (~191M–215M). This creates near-term financing and liquidity risk if the downturn persists, particularly alongside the higher debt level in 2025. Prior years show the business can generate cash, but the latest period’s swing is the key red flag.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.42B	8.79B	6.35B	5.43B	6.19B	2.83B
Gross Profit	1.83B	2.11B	1.56B	1.59B	2.30B	1.14B
EBITDA	649.62M	760.71M	29.07M	153.83M	1.35B	483.13M
Net Income	136.30M	307.77M	73.50M	33.43M	851.65M	307.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.54B	7.09B	3.59B	4.21B	4.92B	2.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.43B	1.32B	1.47B	1.82B	2.19B	1.52B
Total Debt	446.20M	1.43B	501.00M	923.00M	1.34B	346.08M
Total Liabilities	1.67B	3.01B	1.50B	2.07B	2.74B	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	2.38B	3.45B	1.79B	1.67B	1.66B	1.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-502.77M	214.00M	188.00M	956.61M	339.13M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-498.72M	214.95M	191.00M	976.31M	359.72M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-541.55M	-104.68M	-95.15M	-471.03M	-464.19M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	887.72M	-473.34M	-461.00M	161.14M	407.84M

Accrete, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1498.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4395, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1498 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1233.40, above the 50-day MA of 1186.64, and above the 200-day MA of 1020.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 25.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4395.

Accrete, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3834	80 Outperform	¥19.32B	12.60	―	3.53%	5.03%	-9.55%
9445	75 Outperform	¥9.59B	10.29	―	3.85%	1.75%	24.87%
9424	66 Neutral	¥22.35B	22.27	―	―	30.15%	31.28%
3776	63 Neutral	¥13.77B	47.06	―	1.01%	17.19%	-43.91%
9419	62 Neutral	¥3.51B	27.33	―	―	-3.76%	-67.98%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
4395	58 Neutral	¥9.50B	26.16	―	0.38%	17.63%	―