Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co (4186) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.14T
• Dividend Yield: 1.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 576.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 19.45%
• EPS Growth: 41.03%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,996
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): 94.14
• Shares Outstanding: 127,800,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 637,990
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 576,710
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: 66.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 288.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥261.46B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥10,354.00 ▲(71.45% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (healthy and improving profitability plus low leverage), supported by bullish technical trend signals. Offsetting factors are weaker/variable free-cash-flow conversion and a valuation that appears demanding with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Recurring consumables & customer stickiness

TOK's business sells consumable, repeat-purchase materials (photoresists, developers, strippers) with long qualification cycles and technical co-development. This creates durable customer lock-in, predictable recurring revenue and higher switching costs, supporting revenue visibility over cycles.

Healthy and improving profit margins

Margins materially improved by 2025, reflecting operating leverage and pricing power in specialty lithography chemicals. Sustained mid-to-high single digit operating and double-digit net margins support reinvestment in R&D and resilience to cost swings, underpinning durable earnings power.

Conservative balance sheet and rising ROE

Low leverage provides financial flexibility for capex, qualifications, or downturns, while ROE roughly doubled over two years, indicating improved capital efficiency. This combination supports sustainable investment capacity and shareholder returns without over-reliance on debt.

Negative Factors

Uneven cash conversion and modest FCF

Operating earnings do not fully convert to free cash consistently, limiting flexible capital deployment. Variable working capital and investment cycles have produced uneven FCF historically, which can cap capacity for buybacks, dividends or accelerated R&D during adverse periods.

Revenue path volatility

While long-term revenue growth is positive, past contractions (notably 2023) show sensitivity to end-market cycles or timing of qualifications. This irregular growth pattern complicates forecasting and could pressure margins or investment pacing if another downcycle occurs.

Concentration in cyclical semiconductor & display markets

Revenue relies heavily on semiconductor and flat-panel display capex cycles. Despite customer stickiness, demand is tied to cyclical device investment and node transitions. Prolonged industry downturns or shifts in process technology adoption could materially affect volumes and utilization.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells chemical products and process equipment in Japan and internationally. The company offers optimal photoresists and photolithography relative chemicals; and coating, developing, vacuum UV hardening, and chemical supply machines. It also provides adhesive materials, thinners for the removing of adhesive materials, structure materials, surface modification materials, micro processing films, thin film mmWave absorbers, polyimide films, and zero Newton bonding and debonding machines for 3D semiconductor packaging. The company's products are used in the production of semiconductor devices, mobile devices, tablets, personal computers, wearable devices, servers, supercomputers, game consoles, MEMS and image sensors, IoT, AI autonomous vehicles, ADAS, robotics, renewable energy equipment, eco-cars, panel manufacturing, televisions, and various displays. In addition, it offers insurance agency services. The company was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Kawasaki, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo generates revenue through the sale of its specialized chemical products, predominantly photoresists used in semiconductor manufacturing. The company's revenue model relies on direct sales to semiconductor manufacturers, which are typically large-scale operations with high-volume needs. Key revenue streams include the development and supply of advanced materials for photolithography, as well as custom chemical solutions tailored to specific customer requirements. Additionally, TOK may engage in partnerships or collaborations with major technology firms and research institutions to develop new products, thus enhancing its market reach and driving growth. Factors contributing to its earnings include the increasing demand for semiconductor devices, technological advancements in electronics, and the company's ongoing investment in research and development to maintain its competitive edge.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving margins (2025 gross ~36%, operating ~21%, net ~14%) plus a conservatively financed balance sheet with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12) and improved ROE (~15%). The main drag is uneven cash generation: operating cash flow is positive but cash conversion is mixed (OCF ~0.59x net income; FCF ~0.30x net income) with notable variability across years.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the period, with 2025 showing solid year-over-year growth after a dip in 2023. Profitability is a key strength: 2025 margins are healthy (gross margin ~36%, operating margin ~21%, net margin ~14%) and have improved versus 2023–2024, indicating good operating leverage. The main weakness is volatility in the growth path (notably the 2023 revenue contraction) and a net margin that, while strong in 2025, has not been consistently at that level every year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12 in 2025, still modest even after rising from 2024). Equity has steadily grown alongside assets, supporting financial flexibility. Returns to shareholders have improved meaningfully (return on equity ~15% in 2025 vs. ~7% in 2023), which is a positive signal. The key watch item is the step-up in total debt in 2025 versus prior years, though leverage remains low overall.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive and growing (2025 above 2024 and materially above 2023), but cash conversion is mixed: operating cash flow is only about ~0.59x net income in 2025, and free cash flow is relatively modest versus earnings (~0.30x in 2025). Free cash flow has been uneven across years (stronger in 2020–2021, weaker in 2022–2024, some recovery in 2025), suggesting variability in working capital and/or investment spend that can limit cash available to shareholders in some periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	217.85B	237.03B	200.97B	162.27B	175.43B	140.06B
Gross Profit	81.16B	86.28B	73.44B	57.95B	63.12B	49.53B
EBITDA	49.63B	59.27B	41.42B	29.71B	37.63B	32.30B
Net Income	27.16B	33.34B	22.68B	12.71B	19.69B	17.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	293.52B	335.29B	281.93B	251.86B	238.07B	217.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	59.16B	70.96B	63.05B	60.81B	59.37B	60.83B
Total Debt	16.45B	26.48B	10.54B	10.49B	10.22B	10.61B
Total Liabilities	74.65B	92.99B	68.46B	56.39B	57.12B	52.08B
Stockholders Equity	207.75B	227.72B	200.65B	183.79B	169.92B	156.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	10.43B	5.58B	1.98B	7.54B	11.63B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	35.19B	30.15B	17.21B	18.99B	19.76B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-25.29B	-2.73B	-9.38B	-12.38B	-4.58B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	3.17B	-15.42B	-7.38B	-8.61B	-18.11B

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6039.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4186, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6039 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8503.50, below the 50-day MA of 7133.40, and above the 200-day MA of 5279.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 649.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4186.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6856	78 Outperform	¥881.74B	23.82	11.99%	0.65%	8.50%	14.06%
6951	78 Outperform	¥351.36B	21.69	―	2.04%	-0.69%	-29.88%
5214	76 Outperform	¥555.24B	17.99	-0.30%	2.16%	1.90%	-105.45%
4186	75 Outperform	¥1.14T	33.11	14.01%	1.08%	19.45%	41.03%
4980	70 Outperform	¥443.63B	16.99	―	2.18%	-6.10%	-7.03%
6728	62 Neutral	¥516.13B	41.36	6.61%	2.35%	-9.06%	-35.95%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co Corporate Events

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Revamps Board and Executive Lineup Ahead of March 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo has announced a new management structure to take effect following its 96th general meeting of shareholders on March 27, 2026, including the appointment of Shogo Ishihara as director and executive officer and the retirement of director Harutoshi Sato. The company is also reshuffling senior executive roles, promoting Gitae Kim to senior managing executive officer and elevating Katsumi Ohmori and Atsushi Sawano to managing executive officers, while confirming a board lineup that maintains multiple outside directors on both the main board and the Audit and Supervisory Committee to support governance and oversight.

Following the shareholder meeting, the board will continue to be led by Representative Director and President Noriaki Taneichi, alongside directors including Kosuke Doi, Hirotaka Yamamoto, and newly appointed Ishihara, with outside director Hisashi Ando providing external oversight. The refreshed structure, including senior executives who concurrently lead key subsidiaries such as TOK Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. and TOK TAIWAN CO., LTD., suggests a continued emphasis on integrating group operations and strengthening corporate governance as the company navigates its position in the competitive semiconductor materials market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen8114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Raises Year-End Dividend, Signals Ongoing Focus on Shareholder Returns

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. plans to propose a year-end dividend of 37 yen per share for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with a total payout of 4,435 million yen from retained earnings, to be approved at the March 27, 2026 shareholders’ meeting. This raises the year-end dividend above the previous forecast and lifts the full-year dividend to 72 yen per share, reflecting the company’s policy of steady shareholder returns while preserving capital to strengthen competitiveness and support long-term growth.

Management reiterated its commitment to a stable dividend policy targeting a 4.0% dividend-on-equity ratio, signaling continued emphasis on predictable profit distribution alongside strategic reinvestment. The higher dividend compared with fiscal 2024 underlines improving performance and may bolster investor confidence, reinforcing Tokyo Ohka Kogyo’s position as a shareholder-conscious player in its sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen8114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Lifts 2027 Mid-Term Plan Targets on AI-Driven Demand

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo has revised the financial targets in its “tok Medium-Term Plan 2027,” raising its consolidated net sales goal for fiscal 2027 from 270 billion yen to 295 billion yen and lifting operating income, EBITDA, and ROE targets as well. The company says stronger-than-expected demand for generative AI-related electronics and a weaker yen versus prior assumptions are pushing sales above initial forecasts, prompting the upgrade while leaving the rest of the mid-term strategic objectives unchanged.

The updated plan now calls for 58 billion yen in operating income and 72 billion yen in EBITDA in 2027, compared with earlier goals of 48 billion yen and 61 billion yen respectively. By increasing its profitability and return on equity target to 14%, the group signals greater confidence in its earnings power under favorable market and currency conditions, offering a more optimistic outlook for stakeholders tied to semiconductor and electronics supply chains.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen8114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Updates FY2025 Results and Revises Medium-Term 2027 Targets

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. released an outline of its business results for the fiscal year ended December 2025 and provided consolidated performance forecasts for fiscal 2026. The company also announced a revision of the quantitative objectives in its Medium-Term Plan 2027, signaling updates to its strategic and financial targets that could affect its future growth path and positioning in the semiconductor materials market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen8114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Delivers Strong 2025 Earnings and Signals Further Growth in 2026

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. reported strong results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with consolidated net sales rising 17.9% to ¥237.0 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent jumping 47.0% to ¥33.3 billion. Margins improved notably, with operating income up 43.2%, return on equity climbing to 15.6%, and cash and cash equivalents increasing to ¥69.2 billion despite higher investing cash outflows.

The company strengthened its balance sheet as total assets grew to ¥335.3 billion while maintaining a high equity ratio of 67.9%, and it continued shareholder returns with an annual dividend increase from ¥63 to ¥72 per share for FY2025. Looking ahead to 2026, management forecasts further growth with net sales expected to rise 10.1% and profit attributable to owners of parent to increase 5.0%, alongside another planned dividend hike to ¥80 per share, underscoring confidence in sustained earnings and cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen8114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Lifts FY2025 Earnings Outlook on AI-Driven Semiconductor Demand

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo has sharply raised its consolidated full-year forecast for the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand from the semiconductor sector. The company now projects sales of ¥237 billion, operating profit of ¥47.3 billion, ordinary profit of ¥49.2 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥33 billion, representing increases of 4.4% to 24.5% versus its August 2025 outlook and a solid improvement over 2024 results. Management attributes the upgrade to robust growth in the semiconductor market driven by expanding generative AI demand and favorable exchange rate movements, signaling improving earnings momentum and underscoring the company’s leveraged exposure to AI-related chip investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4186) stock is a Buy with a Yen7421.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co stock, see the JP:4186 Stock Forecast page.