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Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (JP:4151)
:4151
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Kyowa Kirin Co
(4151)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
¥2,587.00
▲(0.06% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—steady growth, high margins, and a very low-debt balance sheet—partly tempered by inconsistent cash flow conversion and profit margin volatility. Technicals are supportive due to price holding above major moving averages, but negative MACD limits the momentum outlook. Valuation is fair with a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / minimal leverage
Extremely low leverage and zero reported debt in 2025 provide durable financial flexibility, lowering solvency risk and preserving optionality for R&D, licensing, or selective M&A. This conservatism supports resilience to reimbursement or product-cycle shocks over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
High gross margins and improving operating profit
Sustained gross margins near the mid-70s indicate strong product economics and pricing power typical of specialty biologics. Improving operating profitability in 2025 suggests scalable operations and room to fund pipeline investment, making earnings more durable against cost fluctuations.
Consistent top-line growth (2020–2025)
A multi-year rise in revenue to ~497B demonstrates persistent demand for core therapies and effective commercialization both in Japan and via partners. Steady top-line expansion underpins capacity to reinvest in R&D and supports medium-term scale advantages in specialty markets.
Negative Factors
Net margin volatility
Material swings in net margin reduce predictability of earnings and free cash generation, complicating planning for R&D, dividends, or licensing spends. If driven by mix or one-offs, volatility may persist near-term, weakening confidence in sustainable bottom-line conversion over the next several quarters.
Inconsistent cash flow conversion
Irregular conversion of accounting profits into free cash flow makes financing of long-term projects less reliable and increases reliance on working-capital management or partners. This inconsistency raises forecasting risk and constrains the firm’s ability to steadily fund investment or returning capital to shareholders.
Very low leverage constrains financial efficiency
While conservatism lowers risk, near-zero leverage also caps ROE and capital efficiency versus peers that use targeted debt to amplify returns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this structural choice may limit earnings acceleration or shareholder yield expansion when attractive growth or buyback opportunities arise.
Kyowa Kirin Co (4151) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥1.23T
Dividend Yield2.33%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.7
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-3.36%
EPS Growth-55.41%
CountryJP
Employees5,669
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)65.79
Shares Outstanding525,634,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,064,410
30 Day Avg. Volume1,199,913
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)2.66
P/FCF Ratio22.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,937.50Price Target Upside-25.06% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)157.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥521.00B
Kyowa Kirin Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. is a global biotechnology company based in Japan, focusing on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceuticals. The company operates primarily in the fields of oncology, nephrology, and immunology, and is known for its innovative therapeutic solutions, including monoclonal antibodies and other biopharmaceuticals. Kyowa Kirin aims to contribute to the advancement of healthcare through the development of breakthrough medicines that address unmet medical needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyKyowa Kirin makes money primarily by selling prescription pharmaceuticals. Revenue is generated from (1) product sales of its marketed drugs to wholesalers, hospitals, and pharmacies (with pricing and reimbursement frameworks materially influencing sales in Japan and other markets), and (2) collaboration-related income such as upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties from licensing and co-development/co-commercialization agreements where partners commercialize products in certain territories. The company also earns revenue through supplying products/active ingredients where it manufactures for its own products and, in some cases, supports partnered products under agreed commercial terms. Overall earnings are driven by the performance of key global products in its focus areas, successful pipeline development leading to new launches and label expansions, and the structure and execution of strategic partnerships that monetize assets outside of its direct commercial footprint.
Kyowa Kirin Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in North American and EMEA markets, particularly in strategic products like Crysvita and Poteligeo. However, this was offset by declines in overall revenue and interim profit due to restructuring costs and challenges in the Japanese market. While there were strong performances in certain segments and promising R&D developments, the financial declines and restructuring challenges resulted in a mixed sentiment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth in North America and EMEA
Sales in North America increased by JPY9.6 billion, or 12%, in real terms excluding forex impact. Crysvita and Poteligeo grew 11% and 15% respectively in local currency terms.
Strong Performance of Strategic Products
Crysvita continues to grow throughout North America, EMEA, and Japan, with revenues up 10%, or JPY8.9 billion YoY. Poteligeo also continued to grow, increasing its sales by JPY2.6 billion or 14% over the previous year.
Significant Increase in Libmeldy/Lenmeldy Sales
Sales of Libmeldy/Lenmeldy began to be booked in the US and increased significantly, showing a JPY3 billion or 206% increase.
Progress in Ziftomenib Development
Ziftomenib, an oral small molecule menin inhibitor for AML, showed promising results in the KOMET-001 and KOMET-007 trials, with a favorable safety profile and high efficacy rates, leading to a submission for FDA approval.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue and Profit Decline
Revenue was JPY230.7 billion, a decrease of JPY.3 billion, or 1%. Core operating profit was JPY35 billion, a decrease of JPY9.1 billion, or 21%, and interim profit was JPY16.3 billion, a decrease of JPY21.5 billion, or 57%.
Impact of Special Voluntary Retirement Program
Interim profit decreased by 57% due to JPY9.4 billion in extra retirement payments related to a special voluntary retirement program in Japan.
Challenges in Japan Region
Sales for the Japan region declined by 9% due to the termination of a marketing agreement, NHI price revisions, and a decrease in Dobovet sales.
Negative Forex Impact
The total forex impact on revenue was negative JPY1.6 billion, and the forex impact on core operating profit was negative JPY1.3 billion.
Company Guidance
During the call, Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. provided financial guidance for Q2 of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The company reported a revenue of JPY230.7 billion, marking a 1% decrease compared to the previous year, largely due to business restructuring in the APAC region and NHI price reductions in Japan. Core operating profit fell by 21% to JPY35 billion, attributed to a decrease in gross profit and a 7% rise in R&D expenses. Interim profit saw a significant drop of 57% to JPY16.3 billion, impacted by JPY9.4 billion in special voluntary retirement payments. Despite these declines, the company remains optimistic about achieving its full-year plan, with revenue and gross profit at 48% of the forecast and core operating profit at 44%. Sales in North America grew by 12%, driven by Crysvita and Poteligeo, which saw increases of 11% and 15%, respectively. The company is also advancing its R&D pipeline, with promising developments in products like Ziftomenib and rocatinlimab, which are undergoing crucial trials and FDA submissions.Kyowa Kirin Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong overall fundamentals: steady revenue growth and high gross margins, plus an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage. The main offsets are net margin volatility since 2023 and uneven cash flow conversion, which reduce confidence in consistency.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (roughly 318B to 497B), supporting a solid top-line trajectory. Profitability is strong for the industry with consistently high gross margins (~73–78%) and healthy operating profitability, improving in 2025 versus 2024. The main weakness is earnings volatility: net margin peaked in 2023 (~18%) but fell back to ~12–13% in 2024–2025, indicating less stable bottom-line conversion despite continued sales growth.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is very conservatively positioned with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity near zero in most years and total debt reported as zero in 2025), and equity has steadily increased over time. Returns on equity are respectable (~7–10%) and generally stable, supported by a large equity base. The primary trade-off is that very low leverage can limit financial efficiency, and return levels are good but not exceptional given the scale of assets and equity.92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive with free cash flow improving strongly in 2025 (up materially versus 2024) and generally tracking profitability over the period. However, cash flow conversion is inconsistent: free cash flow relative to net income sits around ~0.59–0.77 in most years but has shown weaker periods (notably 2020 and 2022), and operating cash flow relative to revenue remains moderate. Overall, cash flow quality is decent but not consistently strong year-to-year.67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 496.83B | 495.56B | 442.23B | 398.37B | 352.25B |
| Gross Profit | 356.35B | 351.22B | 320.62B | 301.36B | 253.89B |
| EBITDA | 128.42B | 116.65B | 116.94B | 100.85B | 80.61B |
| Net Income | 67.04B | 59.87B | 81.19B | 53.57B | 52.35B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.11T | 1.07T | 1.03T | 939.88B | 921.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.77B | 244.68B | 403.08B | 339.19B | 335.08B |
| Total Debt | 26.13B | 21.68B | 19.70B | 22.29B | 16.59B |
| Total Liabilities | 214.53B | 216.55B | 189.52B | 177.06B | 184.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 893.33B | 850.81B | 836.42B | 762.83B | 737.16B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.90B | 41.85B | 98.34B | 33.11B | 80.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.62B | 67.88B | 115.55B | 48.67B | 86.55B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -89.19B | -142.39B | -20.38B | -17.18B | -11.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.85B | -84.70B | -32.53B | -29.03B | -28.45B |
Kyowa Kirin Co Technical Analysis
Negative
2585.50
Price Trends
2525.29
Negative
2507.21
Negative
2475.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-65.97
Positive
42.83
Neutral
89.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4151, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2585.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2500.75, above the 50-day MA of 2525.29, and above the 200-day MA of 2475.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -65.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4151.
Kyowa Kirin Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | ¥14.22T | 31.26 | 22.23% | 1.17% | 6.25% | 2.62% | |
75 Outperform | ¥4.29T | 9.34 | 7.97% | 3.61% | 13.24% | 127.88% | |
75 Outperform | ¥1.10T | 8.84 | 6.03% | 3.63% | 4.00% | -48.73% | |
72 Outperform | ¥1.23T | 19.73 | 4.27% | 2.33% | -3.36% | -55.41% | |
68 Neutral | ¥1.34T | 19.13 | 5.75% | 3.51% | 6.79% | 22.14% | |
63 Neutral | ¥5.41T | 17.88 | 18.56% | 2.07% | 12.56% | 14.58% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4151
Kyowa Kirin Co
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12.46%
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46.45%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.