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Toagosei Co Ltd (JP:4045)
:4045

Toagosei Co (4045) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4045

Toagosei Co

(4045)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
¥1,993.00
▲(17.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong balance sheet and resilient profitability) tempered by recent negative free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with an ongoing uptrend and neutral-to-positive momentum, while valuation is reasonable with a healthy dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low leverage and steady equity growth create a durable financial cushion. This conservative balance sheet supports capital spending, dividend policy and downside protection during cycles, letting management manage negative free cash flow without forcing distress or asset sales.
Diverse product portfolio & brand
A broad mix of commodity acrylics, specialty resins, electronic materials and a well-known consumer adhesive brand reduces revenue concentration risk. Exposure to both industrial and consumer end-markets supports steadier demand and multiple pathways for margin expansion over the medium term.
Resilient profitability and margins
Sustained gross and net margins indicate structural pricing power in specialty lines and operational efficiency. Even with softer revenue, healthy margins support internal cash generation potential, fund strategic investments, and underpin a consistent shareholder return profile.
Negative Factors
Negative and volatile free cash flow
Repeated negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash suggests heavy capex or working-capital pressure. Over several quarters this erodes internal funding capacity, forcing reliance on the balance sheet or external financing and constraining strategic optionality.
Cooling revenue growth
Turning revenue growth signals softer end-market demand or competitive mix shifts. Prolonged top-line weakness reduces scale benefits, makes margin recovery harder, and limits the firm's ability to build long-term growth initiatives without incremental investment.
Step-up in debt in 2025
Although leverage remains modest, the recent increase in debt combined with negative free cash flow narrows financial headroom. If sustained, higher leverage could increase financing costs and restrict flexibility for M&A or counter-cyclical investments over the medium term.

Toagosei Co (4045) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Toagosei Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionToagosei Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells chemical products in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Commodity Chemicals, Polymer & Oligomer, Adhesive Material, Performance Chemicals, and Plastics segment. It offers inorganic products, including liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, synthetic hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, caustic and super potash, sulfuric acid, sodium sulfite, potassium pyrophosphate, and copper oxide, as well as iron (III) chloride, copper pyrophosphate, and copper potassium pyrophosphate solutions; organic products, such as trichlorethylene and tetrachlorethylene; and ammonium sulfate and potassium bicarbonate fertilizers. The company also provides acrylic monomers, such as dispersants, thickeners, scale inhibitors, pressure sensitive adhesives, binders, paint vehicles, and gelling agents; special polymers; solvent-free acrylic polymers; special acrylic monomers; polymer flocculants; and UV-curable resins. Further, the company provides instant glues and functional adhesives; inorganic chemicals, such as liquid hydrogen chloride, EL sulfuric acid, and hexachlorodisilane, as well as potassium hydroxide and carbonate aqueous solutions; and inorganic functional materials, including electronic materials and amenity care materials. Additionally, it offers piping equipment and nursing care products, elastomer compounds, environmental related products, etc.; and products for the construction and civil engineering. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyToagosei generates revenue primarily through the sale of industrial gases and chemical materials. Its revenue model is based on direct sales to manufacturing companies, research institutions, and various industrial sectors. Key revenue streams include the provision of specialty gases for semiconductor manufacturing, which is a growing market due to the increasing demand for electronics. Additionally, Toagosei has established significant partnerships with major players in the automotive and electronics industries, enhancing its market presence and driving sales. The company's focus on innovation and the development of new chemical products also contributes to its earnings, as it allows Toagosei to meet the evolving needs of its customers.

Toagosei Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid profitability and a conservatively financed balance sheet (low leverage with steady equity growth) support quality. The main drag is weak and volatile free cash flow, which has been negative in 2024–2025 despite steady operating cash flow, and operating margin has eased from prior peaks.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has been fairly stable over the past several years but growth has cooled recently, with 2025 revenue down about 2.4% after a modest rise in 2024. Profitability is solid for the sector, with 2025 gross margin improving to ~29% and net margin near ~7.9%. However, operating profitability has drifted down from the 2021 peak (2025 operating margin ~8.7% vs. ~12.1% in 2021), suggesting some cost pressure or less favorable mix despite resilient earnings.
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with low leverage throughout the period (debt-to-equity mostly ~0.06 and rising to ~0.10 in 2025, still modest). Equity has steadily grown, supporting asset growth and providing a strong cushion through cycles. The main watch item is the step-up in total debt in 2025 versus prior years, but leverage remains clearly manageable.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Operating cash generation is generally positive and fairly consistent (roughly ¥20–22B in recent years), but cash conversion into free cash flow has been volatile. Free cash flow turned negative in 2022 and again in 2024–2025 (2025 about -¥5.7B), implying heavier investment and/or working-capital drag. With free cash flow negative relative to net income in the last two years, near-term financial flexibility is more dependent on operating cash flow and the balance sheet than on surplus cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue166.37B162.31B167.59B159.37B160.82B156.31B
Gross Profit45.96B47.13B45.71B41.37B42.93B45.34B
EBITDA27.20B25.83B25.54B27.88B27.87B29.52B
Net Income10.55B12.77B11.88B12.18B12.49B13.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets269.84B289.11B278.02B272.29B265.13B258.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.62B31.52B41.82B56.11B58.37B75.46B
Total Debt11.01B21.81B12.30B12.35B12.38B11.49B
Total Liabilities59.19B73.16B64.35B59.77B54.33B52.34B
Stockholders Equity209.55B214.81B212.59B211.51B205.97B201.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-5.68B-1.86B9.98B-9.31B9.70B
Operating Cash Flow0.0022.29B20.18B21.64B10.99B21.22B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-29.64B-13.59B-3.53B-3.58B-10.24B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-4.50B-14.51B-15.52B-9.46B-8.64B

Toagosei Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1695.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1745.32
Positive
100DMA
1637.00
Positive
200DMA
1530.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
29.75
Positive
RSI
62.95
Neutral
STOCH
68.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4045, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1695.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1826.30, below the 50-day MA of 1745.32, and above the 200-day MA of 1530.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 29.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4045.

Toagosei Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
¥228.38B14.984.09%1.69%0.94%
73
Outperform
¥197.65B15.874.41%3.80%-1.50%-32.46%
69
Neutral
¥370.00B20.965.28%-0.47%25.41%
68
Neutral
¥850.26B24.824.79%4.21%-1.21%-27.21%
64
Neutral
¥287.14B-31.24-4.00%3.71%0.24%-234.36%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
60
Neutral
¥558.53B77.051.08%3.37%-1.94%-84.08%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4045
Toagosei Co
1,922.50
594.36
44.75%
JP:4061
Denka Co
3,679.00
1,690.23
84.99%
JP:3405
Kuraray Co
1,845.50
27.61
1.52%
JP:4042
Tosoh
2,729.50
774.22
39.60%
JP:4041
Nippon Soda Co., Ltd.
4,185.00
1,382.37
49.32%
JP:4114
Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd.
2,544.50
830.31
48.44%

Toagosei Co Corporate Events

Toagosei Launches ¥2.1 Billion Share Buyback Under New Repurchase Program
Feb 13, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has bought back 1,150,000 shares of its common stock for approximately 2.1 billion yen, at an average price of 1,830.5 yen per share, via extended-hours trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system on February 13, 2026. This transaction forms part of a board-approved share repurchase program authorizing up to 2,000,000 shares or 3.0 billion yen through year-end 2026, signaling continued capital returns to shareholders and leaving room for further buybacks that could support the stock and optimize the company’s capital structure.

Following this initial execution, Toagosei has already used a significant portion of its authorized repurchase capacity, with 1,150,000 shares acquired against the 2,000,000-share ceiling. The remaining authorization provides flexibility for additional market purchases over the course of 2026, potentially enhancing earnings per share and reinforcing management’s commitment to shareholder value, while also indicating confidence in the company’s financial position and long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Launches Targeted Share Buyback via Extended-Hours Trading
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has resolved to acquire up to 1,150,000 shares, or about 1.07% of its outstanding common stock excluding treasury shares, via extended-hours trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system at ¥1,830.5 per share, matching the February 12 closing price. The move is part of a broader buyback program authorized the same day that allows purchases of up to 2 million shares, or 1.86% of shares, for a maximum of ¥3 billion through December 31, 2026, signaling an effort to enhance shareholder returns and optimize capital allocation, though execution will depend on market conditions and some or all orders may go unfilled.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei to Dispose of Treasury Shares for Employee Stock Compensation Plan
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei will dispose of 198,000 shares of its treasury stock on March 3, 2026, at ¥1,878 per share, transferring them to a trust account at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank for use in its employee stock compensation plan. The transaction totals about ¥371.8 million and represents a dilution of roughly 0.18% of outstanding shares, a level the company deems minor for the secondary market.

The disposal supports a previously introduced employee stock compensation plan designed to heighten staff awareness of corporate performance and share price, thereby improving results and boosting medium- to long-term corporate value. Shares will be granted to employees based on position and responsibilities over the life of the trust, which runs through March 2029, reinforcing welfare benefits while further aligning employees with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Extends and Expands Employee Stock Compensation Trust
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei will continue its employee stock compensation plan, first introduced in April 2023, by extending the associated employee share granting trust through March 31, 2029. The board has approved an additional monetary contribution of ¥371.844 million, enabling the trust to acquire 198,000 shares of common stock via transfer of treasury shares on March 3, 2026, reinforcing long-term incentive alignment and potentially improving employee retention and engagement.

The trust will be administered by Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, with Custody Bank of Japan as re-trustee, and voting rights will be exercised by the trustee under instructions from an independent trust administrator. By committing further capital to this scheme, Toagosei signals a continued focus on stock-based rewards as part of its compensation policy, which may modestly affect treasury share levels while supporting a shareholder-oriented culture among employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei launches “Connect and Create 2028” plan with growth, ESG and efficiency targets
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei has unveiled its 2026–2028 medium-term management plan, “Connect and Create 2028,” targeting resilient growth amid geopolitical risks, inflation, and rising ESG and digital demands. The company plans continued investment in four priority areas—mobility, semiconductors, medical, and environmental infrastructure—while leveraging R&D, M&A, and partnerships with academia and startups to expand applications and deepen technological differentiation.

The plan emphasizes portfolio optimization through “selection and concentration,” global expansion, and groupwide digital transformation across production, quality control, R&D, and administrative functions. Financially, Toagosei is aiming by FY2028 for net sales of ¥180 billion, operating income of ¥18 billion with a 10.0% margin, EPS of ¥130, and at least 4% of sales for R&D, while slightly reducing capital expenditures versus the prior plan period.

The company also sets non-financial targets, including a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2013 levels, increasing the ratio of female managers to 8.0%, and improving ROE to 6.5% with a PBR of at least 1.0x. These initiatives are designed to strengthen its production base, improve capital efficiency, promote ESG, and secure diverse talent, positioning Toagosei to achieve its 2030 vision of a high-value, sustainability-focused portfolio of advanced materials.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Launches Up to ¥3 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has approved a new share buyback program, authorizing the acquisition of up to 2,000,000 shares, or about 1.86% of its outstanding common stock, for a maximum of 3.0 billion yen. The purchases will be conducted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 13 and December 31, 2026, via market transactions including discretionary investment agreements and extended-hours trading.

The company stated that the treasury stock acquisition is aimed at enhancing shareholder returns, improving capital efficiency, and supporting flexible capital policies to raise corporate value. As of December 31, 2025, Toagosei held 348,199 shares in treasury against 107,651,801 shares outstanding, indicating that the new program represents a significant expansion of its existing treasury stock position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Lifts Dividend as FY2025 Profit Rises Despite Lower Sales
Feb 12, 2026

Toagosei reported consolidated net sales of ¥162.3 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, down 3.2% year-on-year, while operating profit was nearly flat at ¥14.2 billion and ordinary profit declined 5.8% to ¥15.1 billion. Despite weaker sales and ordinary profit, profit attributable to owners of parent rose 7.5% to ¥12.8 billion, supported by improved comprehensive income and higher basic earnings per share of ¥117.02.

The company’s financial position remained solid, with total assets increasing to ¥289.1 billion and an equity-to-asset ratio of 74.3%, although cash and cash equivalents fell due to heavier investing outflows. Toagosei continued its shareholder return policy by raising its annual dividend from ¥60 to ¥65 per share for 2025 and forecasts a further increase to ¥70 in 2026, while guiding modest 2026 sales and profit growth but anticipating a near 10% decline in net income attributable to owners of parent.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Hold with a Yen1975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Co., Ltd. Cancels Treasury Stock to Boost Efficiency
Dec 18, 2025

Toagosei Co., Ltd. has announced its decision to cancel a significant portion of its treasury stock, specifically 5,000,000 common shares, making up 4.42% of total shares before cancellation. This move, scheduled for December 25, 2025, highlights the company’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and could impact shareholder value positively, reflecting strategic adjustments to enhance financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Buy with a Yen1687.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Toagosei Co. Announces Strategic Organizational Changes for 2026
Nov 19, 2025

Toagosei Co., Ltd. announced significant organizational changes effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing innovation and operational efficiency under its Medium-Term Management Plan. The company plans to strengthen its chemical substance management and develop innovative production processes to introduce new products swiftly and increase profits. These changes include the establishment of new sections for managing chemical substances and developing next-generation operation models, as well as changes in the company’s leadership to support these strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4045) stock is a Buy with a Yen1687.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toagosei Co stock, see the JP:4045 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026