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GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. (JP:3788)
:3788
Japanese Market

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. (3788) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3788

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K.

(3788)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,217.00
▼(-5.86% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is supported primarily by steady financial performance and a reasonable balance sheet, but is pulled down by weak technical conditions (below major moving averages and negative momentum). Valuation is mixed, with a moderate-to-elevated P/E partly offset by a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Durable Revenue Growth
Consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth across several years indicates durable demand for PKI and digital-security services. This steady top-line expansion supports long-term scale benefits, predictable customer renewal patterns, and a base for incremental margin improvement through operating leverage.
Conservative Balance Sheet
A conservatively leveraged balance sheet with manageable debt-to-equity and growing equity provides financial flexibility for investing in product development or M&A, cushions cyclical shocks, and reduces refinancing risk—supporting sustained operations and strategic optionality over the medium term.
Strong Cash Generation Trend & High Gross Margin
High gross margins (~60%) and improving operating cash flow signal solid core economics and improved earnings quality. Persistent positive OCF enhances reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns potential, while high gross margin cushions against pricing pressure and supports sustainable profitability.
Negative Factors
Moderate Operating and Net Margins
Mid-single-digit operating and low single-digit net margins limit retained earnings and reinvestment capacity relative to peers. Persistent structural cost items or investments required to defend market position may constrain margin expansion and make earnings susceptible to revenue slowdowns or rising operating costs.
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Material year-to-year swings in free cash flow point to inconsistent working-capital patterns or lumpy investments, which complicate capital planning. This volatility can hinder predictable dividend growth, share buybacks, or timely funding of strategic projects without drawing on liquidity or increasing leverage.
Rising Total Debt vs. Earlier Periods
An uptick in absolute debt versus earlier years reduces cushioning and raises interest and refinancing exposure. Even with reasonable ratios, higher debt can constrain strategic moves, elevate fixed costs, and slightly increase financial risk if revenue or cash flow growth slows unexpectedly.

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. (3788) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. engages in the development and operation of hosting services, security services, and various other Internet solutions in Japan and internationally. The company was formerly known as GMO Cloud K.K. and changed its name to GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. in September 2020. GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. was founded in 1993 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyGMO GlobalSign Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of digital certificates and security solutions. The company’s key revenue streams include subscription fees for its certificate services, one-time fees for issuing SSL/TLS certificates, and revenue from value-added services such as managed PKI solutions and identity verification services. Additionally, GlobalSign partners with major technology firms and resellers to expand its distribution channels, enhancing its market reach and customer base. The increasing demand for online security, driven by the rise of cyber threats and regulatory requirements, further supports the company's revenue growth.

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Steady revenue growth and a conservatively leveraged balance sheet support a solid fundamental base. Profitability is moderate (mid-single-digit operating and net margins) and free cash flow has been volatile year to year, which tempers the score despite improved cash generation recently.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has grown steadily across the period (2025 annual revenue up ~6% vs. 2024; mid-to-high single digit growth also evident in prior years), indicating durable demand. Profitability is solid at the gross level (about ~60% gross margin in 2023–2024), but operating profitability is moderate (2024 operating margin ~6.7% and net margin ~4.5%), suggesting meaningful operating costs. Net income improved in 2023–2025 versus 2021–2023 levels, but remains below the unusually strong 2020 profit profile, pointing to some margin compression versus peak.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
The balance sheet looks conservatively leveraged overall, with debt-to-equity remaining manageable (about ~0.23–0.32 in 2022–2024). Equity has grown over time (2021–2025), supporting a strengthening capital base. Total debt rose from earlier levels (notably higher than 2020–2021), which reduces flexibility somewhat, but leverage still appears reasonable relative to equity and assets. Returns on equity are healthy in the high single digits to low teens in 2021–2024, though below the 2020 level.
Cash Flow
66
Positive
Operating cash flow is consistently positive and has improved from 2022 to 2025 (roughly ¥1.7B to ~¥2.8B), which supports earnings quality. Free cash flow, however, has been volatile: very low in 2023, sharply higher in 2024, and very strong in 2025, suggesting variability in investment or working-capital needs. Cash conversion is mixed, with free cash flow running below net income in 2022–2024 (based on the provided coverage), improving meaningfully in 2025 as free cash flow rebounded.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue19.54B20.67B19.17B17.50B15.96B14.05B
Gross Profit11.58B12.20B11.54B10.94B9.68B8.44B
EBITDA2.63B3.19B2.86B2.59B2.31B1.73B
Net Income760.55M1.01B854.56M739.69M846.76M483.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets17.83B18.96B18.03B15.69B14.57B11.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.49B8.94B8.46B6.66B6.68B5.04B
Total Debt3.29B2.70B3.02B2.01B1.96B693.48M
Total Liabilities8.55B8.61B8.54B7.03B6.62B4.36B
Stockholders Equity9.25B10.33B9.46B8.64B7.93B7.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.002.68B1.23B267.18M293.69M327.16M
Operating Cash Flow0.002.84B2.81B2.20B1.68B1.56B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-1.58B-1.60B-1.80B-1.14B-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-822.52M280.79M-645.92M763.68M-822.04M

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2355.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2249.47
Negative
100DMA
2240.61
Negative
200DMA
2165.23
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-55.97
Positive
RSI
38.71
Neutral
STOCH
37.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3788, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2355 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2143.95, above the 50-day MA of 2249.47, and above the 200-day MA of 2165.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -55.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3788.

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥20.55B21.480.90%17.75%44.95%
69
Neutral
¥19.05B23.882.13%-0.62%-11.36%
65
Neutral
¥32.20B10.1110.34%4.82%-3.03%38.83%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
60
Neutral
¥23.50B24.031.50%7.83%49.73%
60
Neutral
¥5.91B31.611.04%-3.46%-59.98%
50
Neutral
¥1.59B-2.735.17%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3788
GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K.
2,040.00
-250.03
-10.92%
JP:4725
CAC Holdings Corporation
1,907.00
61.61
3.34%
JP:4398
BroadBand Security, Inc.
1,316.00
-95.10
-6.74%
JP:4498
Cybertrust Japan Co.Ltd.
1,241.00
5.10
0.41%
JP:6050
E-Guardian Inc.
1,648.00
-429.25
-20.66%
JP:9250
GRCS, Inc.
1,068.00
-307.00
-22.33%

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. Corporate Events

GMO GlobalSign to Cut Authorized Shares, Tighten Capital Structure
Feb 16, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. has resolved to propose an amendment to its Articles of Incorporation that would change the total number of authorized shares, to be voted on at the annual shareholders meeting on March 17, 2026. The company plans to reduce its authorized shares from 34,360,000 to 11,909,980, aiming to maintain an appropriate capital structure and secure flexibility in capital policy in light of future changes in its management environment and the impact on shareholder value.

The decision reflects management’s focus on aligning its equity base with long-term capital strategy and market conditions, suggesting a more disciplined approach to share issuance going forward. If approved, the amendment will take effect immediately on the date of the shareholders meeting, potentially influencing future financing options, dilution dynamics, and overall capital efficiency for existing and prospective investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Plans Higher Year-End Dividend From Retained Earnings
Feb 16, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. has approved a proposal to distribute year-end dividends from retained earnings for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, setting the payment at ¥56.91 per share, up from ¥37.22 a year earlier. The total planned dividend payout is ¥653 million, with an effective payment date of March 23, 2026, pending approval at the March 17 annual shareholders meeting.

The company reiterated its policy of prioritizing both internal funding for future business expansion and organizational strengthening while maintaining stable shareholder returns, targeting a consolidated dividend payout ratio of 65% or more. The higher year-end dividend underscores management’s commitment to that policy and signals confidence in the firm’s financial performance and cash-generation capacity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Sets Record FY2025 Results and Raises Dividend Outlook
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings reported record-high sales and operating profit for FY2025, driven by strong performance of key products and a business model centered on recurring revenue. The company expects continued steady growth in revenue and profit, aims to further expand market share and improve pricing, and has revised its projected dividend upward while adopting a Dividend on Equity standard from FY2026 to enhance shareholder returns.

These moves underscore management’s confidence in the sustainability of earnings and signal a more shareholder-focused capital policy, which may strengthen the company’s market positioning and appeal to investors seeking both growth and income. The emphasis on recurring revenue and price optimization suggests a strategy geared toward resilience and profitability in a competitive digital services landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Posts Higher Earnings and Raises Dividend, Forecasts Further Growth in 2026
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥20.67 billion for the year ended 31 December 2025, up 7.9% year on year, with operating profit rising 18.3% to ¥1.48 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent climbing 17.6% to ¥1.01 billion. The company strengthened its financial position as total assets increased to ¥18.96 billion, equity ratio improved to 54.5% and cash and cash equivalents rose to ¥9.03 billion, supporting a higher year-end dividend of ¥56.91 per share and implying an elevated payout ratio of 65.0%.

Management forecast further growth in 2026, guiding for net sales of ¥22.29 billion, a 7.8% increase, and a 10.0% rise in operating profit to ¥1.62 billion, while earnings per share are projected to reach ¥91.79. The outlook suggests GMO GlobalSign aims to balance continued earnings expansion with shareholder returns, as the company maintains its dividend policy and signals confidence in its ability to generate stable cash flows in its core digital services business.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Profit Surges on Strong Digital and Cloud Service Demand
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings reported that non-consolidated net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 rose 13.7% year on year to ¥9.3 billion, driven mainly by strong demand for its GMO Sign e-contract service and CloudCREW byGMO managed cloud offering. Profitability also improved significantly, with ordinary profit climbing 69.8% to ¥698 million and net income rising 69.1% to ¥645 million, and the company has set a higher year-end dividend of ¥56.91 per share, underscoring confidence in its earnings momentum.

The strong performance in its core digital certificate, e-signature and cloud infrastructure segments highlights GMO GlobalSign Holdings’ strengthening position in Japan’s digital transformation and cloud services markets. The combination of double-digit top-line growth, sharply higher profits and an increased dividend suggests improving operational leverage and offers a positive signal to shareholders regarding the company’s growth trajectory and capital return policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Ends Modest Share Buyback Below Authorized Limit
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings has completed a share repurchase program conducted under Japan’s Companies Act, buying back 11,900 shares of its common stock for a total of JPY 26.66 million between January 1 and January 30, 2026, via market purchases through a securities firm. The program, authorized in November 2025 for up to 45,000 shares and JPY 150 million, concluded below its maximum limits, signaling a measured approach to capital allocation as the company balances business growth with efforts to enhance shareholder returns and optimize its capital structure.

The buyback’s relatively modest scale versus the authorized ceiling suggests management is preserving financial flexibility while still demonstrating a commitment to shareholder value. For investors, the completed repurchase provides incremental support to earnings per share and indicates the company’s continued use of share buybacks as a tool within its broader shareholder-return policy, without significantly altering its overall equity base or leverage profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Raises FY2025 Year-End Dividend Forecast on Strong Earnings
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings has announced an upward revision to its year-end dividend forecast for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, following a resolution at an extraordinary Board of Directors meeting on February 10, 2026. In line with its policy of shareholder returns via performance-linked dividends targeting a payout ratio of about 65% of net income attributable to owners of the parent, the company raised its projected year-end dividend from ¥49.84 to ¥56.91 per share, compared with ¥37.22 per share in the previous fiscal year, signaling stronger earnings and an enhanced commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Adds DOE Metric to Strengthen Dividend Policy
Feb 10, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings has revised its shareholder return policy, introducing Dividend on Equity (DOE) as an additional metric alongside its existing consolidated dividend payout ratio. The company aims to provide stable and consistent dividends by targeting the higher of a 65% consolidated payout ratio or a 4% DOE, based on equity excluding foreign currency translation adjustments.

This new framework, effective from the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, is designed to clarify the firm’s commitment to shareholder returns and align distributions more closely with its equity base. The move may enhance visibility and predictability of dividends for investors, potentially strengthening shareholder trust and supporting the company’s capital market positioning over the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Reports No Share Buybacks Yet Under Ongoing Repurchase Program
Jan 9, 2026

GMO GlobalSign Holdings has disclosed that, during the period from December 1 to December 31, 2025, it did not repurchase any of its own shares under its previously approved share buyback program, resulting in zero shares acquired and no capital deployed so far. The buyback authorization, approved by the board on November 12, 2025, allows for the purchase of up to 45,000 shares or ¥150 million through January 30, 2026, meaning the company still has full capacity under the program and may yet use share repurchases as a capital allocation tool, with potential implications for shareholder returns and market perception of the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

GMO GlobalSign Holdings Reports Interim Status of Share Repurchase Program
Dec 5, 2025

GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. announced an interim report on its share repurchase program, revealing that no shares were repurchased between November 17 and November 30, 2025. Despite the lack of repurchase activity, the company plans to continue its share buyback initiative, which was approved by the Board of Directors, allowing for the repurchase of up to 45,000 shares by January 30, 2026. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3788) stock is a Buy with a Yen2684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO GlobalSign Holdings K.K. stock, see the JP:3788 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026