Activia Properties (3279) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥344.33B
• Dividend Yield: 4.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: -5.01%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 3111.00
• Shares Outstanding: 2,376,318
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,809
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,875
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥145,357.54
• Price Target Upside: -0.71% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥161,014 ▲(9.98% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability offset by leverage and cash-flow volatility). Technicals are supportive with an uptrend, but overbought signals add near-term risk. Valuation is held back by a higher P/E despite a favorable dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Sustained Profitability

Consistent, solid net income across reporting periods indicates resilient underlying earnings power. For a REIT, steady profitability supports recurring distributions, funds internal reinvestment and maintenance, and underpins long-term asset value preservation despite cyclical leasing dynamics.

Diversified, Recurring Revenue Mix

A mix of long-term rental contracts, fee-based property management and opportunistic property sales creates multiple cash generation channels. Recurring lease income plus service fees reduces reliance on single sources, improving resilience through leasing cycles and supporting steady cash flow over time.

Improving Cash Generation Trend

A multi-year recovery to positive free cash flow enhances the company's ability to fund capex, service debt and sustain distributions without dilutive financing. Persistently positive FCF over several years strengthens liquidity and strategic optionality for acquisitions or renovations.

Negative Factors

Meaningful Leverage

A near-1x debt-to-equity profile leaves limited buffer against interest-rate rises or valuation declines. For a capital-intensive REIT, this leverage level increases refinancing and cash-flow risk, reducing flexibility for opportunistic buying or absorbing tenant stress during downturns.

Volatile Cash Flows

Lumpy operating and free cash flows complicate long-term planning for capex, dividends and debt schedules. Volatility increases the chance of shortfalls in weak periods, forcing reactive financing or asset sales and constraining steady capital allocation over multi-quarter horizons.

Inconsistent Revenue Growth

An uneven top-line trajectory signals exposure to leasing-cycle variability, tenant turnover, or market demand shifts. Inconsistent revenue reduces predictability of earnings and cash generation, making it harder to rely on organic growth to fund reinvestment or reduce leverage over time.

Activia Properties Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Activia Properties Inc. invests primarily in Urban Retail and Tokyo Office Properties. API seeks to increase unitholder value by building a portfolio of properties that are competitive in the medium- to long-term and operating it. To build a portfolio of properties that can expect stable and sustainable customer demand, we believe that in addition to the location, use, scale, and quality of properties, reducing our environmental footprint and contributing to the surrounding communities and environment are important.

How the Company Makes Money

Activia Properties generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is rental income derived from leasing commercial spaces to various tenants, which includes long-term leases with established businesses and short-term leases for retail spaces. Additionally, the company profits from property management services, which involve overseeing the operations and maintenance of its properties, often charging fees to property owners for these services. Furthermore, Activia Properties may engage in property sales, realizing capital gains from appreciated assets. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and contractors also contribute to the company's earnings, enhancing service offerings and expanding its market reach.

Activia Properties Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is a clear strength with solid, steady earnings, but revenue growth is inconsistent. Leverage is meaningful (debt roughly in line with equity), and cash flows have improved recently but remain volatile, which reduces overall financial quality.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently high profit levels across the period (net income remaining solid each year) and steady operating earnings. Growth, however, is mixed: revenue declined in 2024 and improved modestly in 2025, following a stronger 2023. Overall, earnings power looks resilient, but the top-line trajectory is not consistently upward.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a leveraged REIT profile: debt is roughly in line with equity (debt-to-equity around ~0.93–0.99 in recent years), which increases sensitivity to financing conditions. Offsetting this, equity is sizable and relatively stable, and returns on equity have been steady in the mid-single digits. Overall, leverage is manageable but leaves less margin for error if asset values or funding costs move against the company.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in most years, with operating cash flow generally supporting the business and free cash flow returning to healthy positive levels in 2022–2025. That said, cash flows are volatile (notably a large operating cash flow spike in 2023 and negative free cash flow in 2021), suggesting lumpiness in timing and/or investment and working-capital swings. The recent trend is improved, but variability remains a key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.42B	31.62B	34.83B	31.69B	30.36B
Gross Profit	16.85B	18.80B	19.88B	20.24B	19.44B
EBITDA	19.84B	18.86B	21.91B	20.29B	19.60B
Net Income	14.31B	14.16B	17.47B	15.58B	15.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	561.23B	560.21B	568.92B	561.68B	566.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.21B	16.84B	21.37B	18.68B	15.99B
Total Debt	264.85B	264.85B	265.85B	260.35B	260.35B
Total Liabilities	293.42B	292.43B	294.12B	286.78B	287.54B
Stockholders Equity	267.81B	267.78B	274.80B	274.91B	278.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.16B	18.42B	14.61B	23.47B	-22.48B
Operating Cash Flow	18.11B	21.63B	62.48B	24.49B	29.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.56B	-3.26B	-46.75B	-2.55B	-50.45B
Financing Cash Flow	-14.72B	-22.54B	-12.37B	-19.81B	23.21B

Activia Properties Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 146400.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3279, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 146400 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145370.00, above the 50-day MA of 142549.87, and above the 200-day MA of 129135.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 960.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3279.

Activia Properties Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8964	72 Outperform	¥247.78B	20.01	―	4.67%	4.11%	2.05%
3279	67 Neutral	¥344.33B	24.06	5.23%	4.18%	-5.01%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
8956	65 Neutral	¥211.34B	24.86	―	4.51%	65.46%	-0.92%
3249	64 Neutral	¥389.82B	21.53	7.56%	4.52%	-6.57%	2.83%
3234	64 Neutral	¥282.47B	22.96	―	4.15%	-0.15%	-2.63%
3226	59 Neutral	¥356.71B	30.63	―	3.56%	2.91%	2.68%

Activia Properties Corporate Events

Activia Properties Lifts FY2026 Forecasts on Asset Sale Gain and Strong Leasing Income

Activia Properties has raised its forecasts for operating revenue, profit and cash distributions for the fiscal period ending May 31, 2026, citing stronger-than-expected performance. The REIT now expects an 11.1% increase in operating revenue and more than 20% growth in ordinary profit versus its previous outlook, driven by a gain on the planned May 2026 sale of the Kobe Kyu Kyoryuchi 25Bankan property and higher-than-anticipated leasing income, including sales-linked rents, resulting in a projected 5.6% uplift in cash distributions per unit for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3279) stock is a Hold with a Yen146000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Activia Properties stock, see the JP:3279 Stock Forecast page.

Activia Properties Posts Higher Earnings and Lifts Outlook Through 2026

Activia Properties reported solid results for the fiscal period ended November 30, 2025, with operating revenue rising 4.1% year-on-year to ¥16.5 billion and profit increasing 6.9% to ¥7.39 billion, supported by improved operating and ordinary profits and steady portfolio performance. Distributions per unit were set at ¥3,113 with a 100% payout ratio, while total assets and net assets remained broadly stable, and operating cash flow strengthened; the REIT also issued guidance for the next two fiscal periods, projecting further growth in operating revenue and profit through November 2026, signaling continued earnings momentum and stable income prospects for unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3279) stock is a Hold with a Yen146000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Activia Properties stock, see the JP:3279 Stock Forecast page.

Activia Properties to Sell Kobe Retail Asset Above Book Value in Portfolio Rebalancing Move

Activia Properties Inc. has agreed to dispose of its trust beneficiary interest in the urban retail property Kobe Kyu Kyoryuchi 25Bankan for a total of ¥26.26 billion, significantly above the asset’s book value of ¥19.16 billion, generating a gain of about ¥7.09 billion. The sale, to J. FRONT CITY DEVELOPMENT, will be executed in four staged transfers between May 2026 and June 2027, forming part of Activia’s broader asset replacement strategy to upgrade its portfolio and redeploy capital into higher-yielding opportunities. While the property has provided stable occupancy and supported portfolio performance for more than a decade due to its prime location in Kobe’s Kyu Kyoryuchi district, Activia judged that limited further internal growth and an attractive exit yield made this an opportune time to sell; the REIT plans to use the proceeds and retained portion of the disposal gains to support future acquisitions and manage distributions, aiming to bolster unitholder value over the medium to long term, leaving it with 44 properties and a total acquisition price of ¥520.4 billion post-transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3279) stock is a Hold with a Yen146000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Activia Properties stock, see the JP:3279 Stock Forecast page.

Activia Properties Announces Key Leadership Change

Activia Properties Inc. announced a key personnel change at TLC REIT Management Inc., the asset management company it collaborates with. Yoshiya Kira will take over as Executive Director and Compliance Officer, effective December 1, 2025, replacing Hidekazu Omi. This change is part of the company’s compliance with relevant financial and real estate regulations, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3279) stock is a Hold with a Yen155621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Activia Properties stock, see the JP:3279 Stock Forecast page.

Activia Properties Renews Lease Agreement with Times24

Activia Properties Inc. has announced the renewal of a lease agreement with Times24 Co., Ltd. for the Kyoto Karasuma Parking Building, effective from August 1, 2026, to July 31, 2031. This renewal is expected to improve the profitability of Activia Properties, although it will have minimal impact on the company’s management performance for the fiscal periods ending November 2025 and May 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3279) stock is a Buy with a Yen142241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Activia Properties stock, see the JP:3279 Stock Forecast page.