Nextage Co., Ltd. (3186) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥253.94B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 601.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: 21.79%
• EPS Growth: 9.89%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,635
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Dealerships
• EPS (TTM): 62.21
• Shares Outstanding: 80,877,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 815,920
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 601,260
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 67.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥3,566.67
• Price Target Upside: 28.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,877.00 ▲(40.22% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by uneven cash generation, thin/compressing margins, and elevated leverage despite strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, but RSI is high, and valuation looks reasonable rather than clearly cheap.

Positive Factors

Material Revenue Scale-Up

Sustained, large revenue growth indicates strong market traction and expanding transaction volumes across the core brokerage and leasing business. Durable top-line expansion improves capacity to invest in systems, branch coverage and partnerships that support longer-term market share gains.

Improving Returns on Equity

Rising ROE reflects effective profit generation on shareholder capital and suggests competent capital allocation. If sustained, stronger ROE supports reinvestment, dividend capacity or debt reduction, bolstering long-term shareholder value and operational credibility.

Diversified Revenue Streams

A mix of commissions, recurring property-management fees and consulting reduces dependence on single transaction cycles. This structural diversification smooths revenue volatility across real-estate cycles and supports more predictable cash flows and client relationships over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Thin Net Margins

Persistently low net margins limit retained earnings and make earnings more sensitive to cost swings. Over time this constrains the firm's ability to fund growth internally, absorb shocks, or build reserves, increasing reliance on external financing for strategic initiatives.

Elevated Leverage

Consistently high debt levels amplify cyclical and interest-rate risk in a transaction-driven business. Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility for acquisitions or capex, increases refinancing and interest exposure, and heightens vulnerability if property market activity slows.

Weak and Volatile Cash Conversion

Earnings that do not reliably convert to cash indicate working-capital swings and lower quality of reported profits. Over months, this undermines ability to fund operations, pay down debt, or sustain investments without external financing, raising operational and liquidity risk.

Nextage Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. engages in the retail sale of new and used cars in Japan. It is also involved in the provision of vehicle maintenance and repair, as well as vehicle safety inspection services; operation of an insurance agency; purchase of used cars; and car exterior coating business. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Nextage generates revenue primarily through commissions from the sale and leasing of properties. The company earns a significant portion of its income by acting as a broker in real estate transactions, where it charges fees based on the value of the properties involved. Additionally, Nextage generates revenue from property management services, where it manages residential and commercial properties on behalf of owners, collecting management fees. The company may also derive income from real estate consulting and advisory services, providing clients with strategic insights and assistance in their real estate investments. Partnerships with other real estate firms, financial institutions, and technology providers enhance its service offerings and can lead to increased transactions, further contributing to its revenues.

Nextage Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue expansion and decent ROE (~16% in 2025) are offset by margin compression (net margin ~2.0% in 2025), meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.22), and weak/volatile cash conversion (OCF coverage of net income ~0.12; FCF ~34% of net income).

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially over the last several years, with strong acceleration in the latest annual period (2025 revenue growth ~383%). However, profitability has trended weaker: gross margin has drifted down (from ~19.5% in 2021 to ~17.2% in 2025) and net margin is thin for the most recent year (~2.0%), well below 2022–2023 levels. EBIT/EBITDA margins also compressed vs. prior peaks, indicating earnings quality is more volume-driven than margin-driven.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity ~1.22 in 2025; previously as high as ~1.51 in 2024), which can amplify cyclical risk in an auto dealership model. Offsetting this, equity has grown over time and returns on equity remain solid (~16% in 2025), improving from 2024 (~11%). Overall balance sheet strength is adequate but constrained by consistently elevated debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. Operating cash flow was very strong in 2023 but swung negative in 2022 and fell sharply in 2024, with free cash flow negative in 2024 and positive but modest in 2025. In the latest year, operating cash flow covers only a small portion of net income (coverage ~0.12) and free cash flow is only ~34% of net income, suggesting profits are not consistently converting into cash and working-capital swings may be significant.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	628.03B	652.07B	552.78B	463.46B	418.12B	291.26B
Gross Profit	107.51B	112.17B	98.67B	86.83B	74.03B	56.73B
EBITDA	21.16B	25.14B	17.74B	20.07B	21.96B	17.48B
Net Income	8.99B	12.81B	8.01B	11.56B	13.89B	9.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	234.69B	226.78B	222.27B	177.50B	161.26B	111.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.48B	17.69B	35.71B	29.63B	19.84B	22.75B
Total Debt	111.55B	96.35B	109.92B	77.42B	76.52B	51.49B
Total Liabilities	160.51B	147.58B	149.54B	110.99B	104.96B	69.42B
Stockholders Equity	74.19B	79.19B	72.73B	66.50B	56.30B	41.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	3.09B	-11.16B	13.20B	-30.50B	-4.22B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	9.19B	3.02B	33.69B	-17.85B	3.21B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-7.33B	-18.45B	-23.68B	-13.83B	-8.26B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-19.88B	21.37B	-227.00M	28.81B	317.00M

Nextage Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2765.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3186, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2765 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3379.05, below the 50-day MA of 2966.21, and above the 200-day MA of 2232.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 103.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3186.

Nextage Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8291	76 Outperform	¥27.61B	9.55	―	4.79%	-6.89%	-50.31%
7593	73 Outperform	¥64.49B	11.39	―	4.49%	8.56%	-13.47%
7134	71 Outperform	¥8.78B	12.31	―	2.82%	6.55%	1.07%
7599	70 Outperform	¥152.82B	12.00	―	2.82%	11.66%	-7.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
3186	61 Neutral	¥253.94B	20.26	―	1.24%	21.79%	9.89%
9268	55 Neutral	¥24.20B	-19.07	―	5.36%	23.82%	-151.12%

Nextage Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Nextage Moves to Strengthen Governance with Expanded Audit Board and Higher Auditor Pay

Nextage Co., Ltd. will seek shareholder approval at its February 20, 2026 annual general meeting to amend its Articles of Incorporation to increase the maximum number of Audit and Supervisory Board Members from three to five, aiming to strengthen its audit structure and overall corporate governance. The company is also proposing the reappointment of its current directors, including Representative Director, Chairman and President Seiji Hirota, and outside independent directors Tadamitsu Matsui and Isao Endo, alongside the appointment of certified public accountant Miki Okado as a new outside, independent Audit and Supervisory Board Member. In line with its governance enhancements and the expanding scope of audit responsibilities as the business grows, Nextage plans to raise the annual remuneration cap for Audit and Supervisory Board Members from ¥30 million to ¥50 million, a move intended to support higher audit quality and reinforce oversight as the number of board auditors potentially increases from three to four, including three outside members.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Buy with a Yen3546.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

NEXTAGE Delivers Strong FY2025 Profit Growth and Hikes Dividend, Forecasts Further Gains in FY2026

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. reported strong earnings for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, with net sales rising 18.0% year on year to ¥652.0 billion and operating profit surging 51.4% to ¥19.6 billion. Ordinary profit climbed 52.2% to ¥18.5 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent increased 60.0% to ¥12.8 billion, driving basic earnings per share up to ¥161.65 and improving profitability ratios such as ROE, total-asset profitability, and operating margin. The company’s financial position also strengthened, with total assets reaching ¥226.8 billion, net assets ¥79.2 billion, and the equity ratio improving to 34.9%, while cash flows showed solid generation from operations alongside reduced cash and cash equivalents due mainly to financing outflows. Reflecting these results, NEXTAGE raised its annual dividend from ¥33 to ¥45 per share for FY2025 and plans a further increase to ¥50 for FY2026, signaling a continued commitment to shareholder returns. For the fiscal year ending November 30, 2026, the company forecasts more moderate but continued growth, projecting net sales of ¥684.0 billion, operating profit of ¥24.0 billion, ordinary profit of ¥22.6 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥15.0 billion, with EPS expected to reach ¥191.72, suggesting management’s confidence in sustained earnings momentum following the consolidation of ONE Motoren Co., Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Hold with a Yen2801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

Nextage Raises Year-End Dividend, Signaling Stronger Shareholder Returns

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. has announced that its Board of Directors resolved to increase the year-end dividend for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, to 45 yen per share, up from both the previous forecast of 34 yen and the prior year’s 33 yen, with total dividend payments rising to 3.63 billion yen, subject to shareholder approval at the February 20, 2026 general meeting. The move underscores the company’s commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through stable and rising dividends, while signaling confidence in its earnings capacity and financial health, which may strengthen its appeal to investors seeking income and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Hold with a Yen2801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.