tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Nextage Co., Ltd. (JP:3186)
:3186
Japanese Market

Nextage Co., Ltd. (3186) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
0 Followers

Top Page

JP:3186

Nextage Co., Ltd.

(3186)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
¥4,067.00
▲(47.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/07/26
The score is primarily held back by uneven cash generation, thin/compressing margins, and elevated leverage despite strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, but RSI is high, and valuation looks reasonable rather than clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale
Revenue surged sharply (2025 growth ~383%), indicating successful scaling of retail footprint and customer acquisition. Durable volume expansion can improve supplier negotiating leverage, spread fixed costs, and underpin longer-term market share gains if margin pressure is addressed.
Diversified Revenue Mix
Core business combines used-vehicle retail with transaction-linked ancillaries (financing, insurance, warranties). This diversified mix produces higher-margin, repeatable fees and cross-sell opportunities, supporting customer lifetime value and cushioning revenue per unit over multi‑quarter horizons.
Improving ROE
Returns on equity improved to mid-teens (~16% in 2025) alongside equity growth, signaling management's ability to deploy capital profitably. Sustained ROE at this level supports internal funding capacity and indicates efficient use of equity over a multi-quarter timeframe.
Negative Factors
Margin Erosion
Gross and net margins have compressed materially, with net margin thin at ~2.0% in 2025. Persistent margin erosion weakens earnings resilience, limits reinvestment and buffer against cost inflation, and makes long-term profitability sensitive to pricing and reconditioning cost swings.
Elevated Leverage
Leverage remains meaningful (debt above equity), which increases interest burden and amplifies cyclical downside in the auto-dealership model. Elevated debt limits strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and can pressure margins and solvency if vehicle sales soften.
Weak Cash Conversion
Operating cash flow covers only a small portion of reported profit and free cash flow is a fraction of net income, reflecting volatile cash conversion and working-capital swings. This constrains self-funding for growth, dividends, and reduces resilience to shocks without external financing.

Nextage Co., Ltd. (3186) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Nextage Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNEXTAGE Co., Ltd. engages in the retail sale of new and used cars in Japan. It is also involved in the provision of vehicle maintenance and repair, as well as vehicle safety inspection services; operation of an insurance agency; purchase of used cars; and car exterior coating business. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyNextage generates revenue primarily through commissions from the sale and leasing of properties. The company earns a significant portion of its income by acting as a broker in real estate transactions, where it charges fees based on the value of the properties involved. Additionally, Nextage generates revenue from property management services, where it manages residential and commercial properties on behalf of owners, collecting management fees. The company may also derive income from real estate consulting and advisory services, providing clients with strategic insights and assistance in their real estate investments. Partnerships with other real estate firms, financial institutions, and technology providers enhance its service offerings and can lead to increased transactions, further contributing to its revenues.

Nextage Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue expansion and decent ROE (~16% in 2025) are offset by margin compression (net margin ~2.0% in 2025), meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.22), and weak/volatile cash conversion (OCF coverage of net income ~0.12; FCF ~34% of net income).
Income Statement
66
Positive
Revenue has scaled materially over the last several years, with strong acceleration in the latest annual period (2025 revenue growth ~383%). However, profitability has trended weaker: gross margin has drifted down (from ~19.5% in 2021 to ~17.2% in 2025) and net margin is thin for the most recent year (~2.0%), well below 2022–2023 levels. EBIT/EBITDA margins also compressed vs. prior peaks, indicating earnings quality is more volume-driven than margin-driven.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Leverage is meaningful, with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity ~1.22 in 2025; previously as high as ~1.51 in 2024), which can amplify cyclical risk in an auto dealership model. Offsetting this, equity has grown over time and returns on equity remain solid (~16% in 2025), improving from 2024 (~11%). Overall balance sheet strength is adequate but constrained by consistently elevated debt levels.
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
Cash generation is volatile. Operating cash flow was very strong in 2023 but swung negative in 2022 and fell sharply in 2024, with free cash flow negative in 2024 and positive but modest in 2025. In the latest year, operating cash flow covers only a small portion of net income (coverage ~0.12) and free cash flow is only ~34% of net income, suggesting profits are not consistently converting into cash and working-capital swings may be significant.
BreakdownNov 2025Nov 2024Nov 2023Nov 2022Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue652.07B552.78B463.46B418.12B291.26B
Gross Profit112.17B98.67B86.83B74.03B56.73B
EBITDA25.14B17.74B20.07B21.96B17.48B
Net Income12.81B8.01B11.56B13.89B9.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets226.78B222.27B177.50B161.26B111.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments17.69B35.71B29.63B19.84B22.75B
Total Debt96.35B109.92B77.42B76.52B51.49B
Total Liabilities147.58B149.54B110.99B104.96B69.42B
Stockholders Equity79.19B72.73B66.50B56.30B41.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.09B-11.16B13.20B-30.50B-4.22B
Operating Cash Flow9.19B3.02B33.69B-17.85B3.21B
Investing Cash Flow-7.33B-18.45B-23.68B-13.83B-8.26B
Financing Cash Flow-19.88B21.37B-227.00M28.81B317.00M

Nextage Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2765.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3326.00
Positive
100DMA
2939.81
Positive
200DMA
2426.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
122.31
Negative
RSI
68.81
Neutral
STOCH
76.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3186, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2765 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3551.00, below the 50-day MA of 3326.00, and above the 200-day MA of 2426.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 122.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3186.

Nextage Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
¥877.93B22.0219.13%2.64%7.58%15.12%
75
Outperform
¥18.31B12.112.64%2.79%-4.61%
70
Outperform
¥153.82B12.082.82%11.66%-7.47%
63
Neutral
¥68.05B11.944.49%8.56%-13.47%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
¥298.91B23.851.24%21.79%9.89%
48
Neutral
¥4.94B-18.451.08%-2.36%-1738.42%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3186
Nextage Co., Ltd.
3,855.00
2,374.45
160.38%
JP:4732
USS Co
1,902.50
552.39
40.91%
JP:5589
AUTOSERVER CO.,LTD
2,528.00
756.91
42.74%
JP:7593
VT Holdings Co., Ltd.
574.00
87.78
18.05%
JP:7599
IDOM Inc.
1,532.00
449.08
41.47%
JP:7602
Carchs Holdings Co., Ltd.
239.00
101.00
73.19%

Nextage Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Nextage Expands Restricted Stock Compensation to Key Personnel
Feb 20, 2026

Nextage Co., Ltd. has approved the issuance of 27,200 new ordinary shares as restricted stock compensation, valued at about ¥99.4 million, to directors, executive officers, employees, and subsidiary directors. The move extends its existing restricted stock plan to a broader group of 37 eligible officers, with allocation levels tied to role and responsibility.

The restricted shares will be subject to transfer limitations until recipients retire or resign, with full vesting generally contingent on a 36‑month service period from March 2026. By conditioning stock grants on continued tenure and long-term value sharing, Nextage aims to strengthen retention, align management and staff interests with shareholders, and support sustainable improvement in corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Buy with a Yen4079.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

Nextage Revamps Board and Executive Lineup to Strengthen Governance
Feb 20, 2026

Nextage Co., Ltd. has overhauled its leadership structure following resolutions passed at its 27th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders and subsequent board meeting held on February 20, 2026. The company confirmed Seiji Hirota as Representative Director, Chairman and President, appointed Masashi Nomura as Director and Executive Officer, and reinforced outside oversight with two outside directors and four Audit and Supervisory Board members, three of whom are external.

In parallel, Nextage detailed a refreshed slate of executive officers, naming two Senior Managing Executive Officers and three Managing Executive Officers to support day-to-day management. The combination of internal promotions and a significant presence of outside auditors indicates a continued emphasis on corporate governance, risk control and management depth as the company navigates its next phase of growth and responds to stakeholder expectations for transparency and accountability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Buy with a Yen4079.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

Nextage Moves to Strengthen Governance with Expanded Audit Board and Higher Auditor Pay
Jan 16, 2026

Nextage Co., Ltd. will seek shareholder approval at its February 20, 2026 annual general meeting to amend its Articles of Incorporation to increase the maximum number of Audit and Supervisory Board Members from three to five, aiming to strengthen its audit structure and overall corporate governance. The company is also proposing the reappointment of its current directors, including Representative Director, Chairman and President Seiji Hirota, and outside independent directors Tadamitsu Matsui and Isao Endo, alongside the appointment of certified public accountant Miki Okado as a new outside, independent Audit and Supervisory Board Member. In line with its governance enhancements and the expanding scope of audit responsibilities as the business grows, Nextage plans to raise the annual remuneration cap for Audit and Supervisory Board Members from ¥30 million to ¥50 million, a move intended to support higher audit quality and reinforce oversight as the number of board auditors potentially increases from three to four, including three outside members.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Buy with a Yen3546.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

NEXTAGE Delivers Strong FY2025 Profit Growth and Hikes Dividend, Forecasts Further Gains in FY2026
Jan 5, 2026

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. reported strong earnings for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, with net sales rising 18.0% year on year to ¥652.0 billion and operating profit surging 51.4% to ¥19.6 billion. Ordinary profit climbed 52.2% to ¥18.5 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent increased 60.0% to ¥12.8 billion, driving basic earnings per share up to ¥161.65 and improving profitability ratios such as ROE, total-asset profitability, and operating margin. The company’s financial position also strengthened, with total assets reaching ¥226.8 billion, net assets ¥79.2 billion, and the equity ratio improving to 34.9%, while cash flows showed solid generation from operations alongside reduced cash and cash equivalents due mainly to financing outflows. Reflecting these results, NEXTAGE raised its annual dividend from ¥33 to ¥45 per share for FY2025 and plans a further increase to ¥50 for FY2026, signaling a continued commitment to shareholder returns. For the fiscal year ending November 30, 2026, the company forecasts more moderate but continued growth, projecting net sales of ¥684.0 billion, operating profit of ¥24.0 billion, ordinary profit of ¥22.6 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥15.0 billion, with EPS expected to reach ¥191.72, suggesting management’s confidence in sustained earnings momentum following the consolidation of ONE Motoren Co., Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Hold with a Yen2801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

Nextage Raises Year-End Dividend, Signaling Stronger Shareholder Returns
Jan 5, 2026

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. has announced that its Board of Directors resolved to increase the year-end dividend for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, to 45 yen per share, up from both the previous forecast of 34 yen and the prior year’s 33 yen, with total dividend payments rising to 3.63 billion yen, subject to shareholder approval at the February 20, 2026 general meeting. The move underscores the company’s commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through stable and rising dividends, while signaling confidence in its earnings capacity and financial health, which may strengthen its appeal to investors seeking income and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3186) stock is a Hold with a Yen2801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nextage Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3186 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 07, 2026