GEO Holdings Corporation (2681) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥66.44B
• Dividend Yield: 1.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 142.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 6.48%
• EPS Growth: -38.41%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 5,912
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 108.13
• Shares Outstanding: 39,783,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 146,540
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 142,133
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.17
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,784.00 ▼(-4.95% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is primarily driven by mixed financial performance—stable balance sheet strength but notable cash flow weakness (including negative free cash flow). Technical indicators add downside risk due to a bearish trend (below key moving averages and negative MACD), while a reasonable P/E and modest dividend yield provide partial support.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet stability

Balanced debt-to-equity and a healthy equity ratio provide durable financial stability. This structure helps GEO absorb retail cyclicality, maintain store operations and invest in inventory/refurbishment without immediate refinancing pressure, supporting multi-month operational resilience.

Nationwide retail & used-goods model

A large physical store network plus e-commerce and trade-in programs create structural advantages in sourcing and reselling used devices. The model captures spreads on used goods, leverages local customer traffic and supports steady inventory flow, sustaining margins over the medium term.

Stable gross margins

Stable gross margins indicate GEO keeps core product economics intact despite retail pressures. Combined with periodic revenue growth, this suggests underlying demand and pricing discipline in its used/new electronics mix, helping protect operating profitability over coming months.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow weakens GEO's ability to self-finance capex, inventory purchases and working capital for its retail network. Over a 2-6 month horizon this raises reliance on external financing or asset sales, constraining strategic flexibility and execution capacity.

Declining ROE and net margin

Declining ROE and net margins signal reduced efficiency in converting equity into earnings, likely from competitive pressures or cost headwinds. If persistent, this erodes shareholder returns and limits reinvestment headroom, posing a structural threat to long-term profitability.

Inconsistent revenue growth

Volatile top-line performance and recent margin pressure undermine predictability of cash flows and inventory turn in GEO's retail and used-goods business. Structural variability makes planning and scaling initiatives harder and raises execution risk over the medium term.

GEO Holdings Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geo Holdings Corporation engages in the amusement businesses in Japan. The company operates GEO shops, which offer a range of in-home amusement software products, including DVDs, CDs, game titles, and books through rental, resale of previously owned items, and sell-through formats; 2nd STREET that handles various reuse items related to daily life, such as clothing, furniture, electronic devices, household electric appliances, and hobby and other lifestyle items; and JUMBLE STORE, which specializes in used clothing and fashion items. It also sells pre-owned mobile devices through GEO MOBILE stores; and engages in the store management support, wholesale of rental music packages, import and wholesale of bags and fashion accessories, video-gram package and titles, production and distribution of digital publication, EC, online-gaming, and management consulting services, as well as develops and operates websites and software. In addition, the company sells its products online. It operates 1,958 outlets. Geo Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

GEO Holdings Corporation generates revenue primarily through rental income from its real estate investments, which include residential complexes, commercial office spaces, and industrial facilities. The company also earns income from property management services and development projects. Additionally, GEO Holdings may engage in asset sales, allowing them to realize capital gains from appreciated properties. Strategic partnerships with real estate developers and financial institutions further enhance its market position and contribute to its revenue streams, facilitating access to new investment opportunities and financing options.

GEO Holdings Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are mixed: a relatively solid balance sheet (reasonable leverage and stable equity ratio) is offset by weaker cash flow, with free cash flow turning negative and challenges converting profits into cash. Profitability is modest with some recent margin pressure and inconsistent revenue growth.

Income Statement

The company has shown moderate performance with fluctuating revenue and profit margins. The Gross Profit Margin has been stable, but the Net Profit Margin has seen a decline recently due to lower net income. Revenue Growth Rate has been inconsistent, with periods of growth followed by declines, indicating a volatile growth trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable but show some decline, reflecting potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a balanced Debt-to-Equity Ratio, suggesting reasonable leverage levels. Return on Equity (ROE) has seen a decline, indicating reduced efficiency in generating returns on equity. The Equity Ratio shows a stable financial structure with a healthy proportion of assets financed by equity, contributing to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation shows significant variability, with Free Cash Flow turning negative in recent periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio reflects challenges in translating profits into cash flow, potentially pointing to operational inefficiencies. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is unfavorable, indicating cash flow management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	431.98B	427.67B	433.85B	377.30B	334.79B	328.36B
Gross Profit	173.79B	170.67B	159.82B	142.48B	130.80B	125.22B
EBITDA	20.58B	20.59B	25.50B	18.85B	17.02B	14.37B
Net Income	3.43B	4.54B	10.90B	5.68B	5.99B	-752.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	268.66B	252.81B	231.13B	201.80B	174.38B	169.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.26B	64.81B	60.07B	47.50B	47.85B	54.58B
Total Debt	135.78B	119.94B	100.05B	81.07B	59.19B	52.25B
Total Liabilities	176.52B	162.34B	143.77B	124.59B	97.18B	96.75B
Stockholders Equity	92.07B	90.40B	87.31B	77.21B	77.19B	72.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-3.11B	2.15B	-2.20B	-10.73B	6.64B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	8.01B	9.30B	4.28B	-5.73B	12.43B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-12.49B	-10.40B	-9.59B	-6.69B	-8.22B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	10.78B	12.40B	3.94B	5.59B	14.68B

GEO Holdings Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1877.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2681, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1877 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1730.10, above the 50-day MA of 1778.72, and above the 200-day MA of 1692.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:2681.

GEO Holdings Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2674	74 Outperform	¥27.59B	8.12	―	3.77%	7.88%	-5.92%
2652	66 Neutral	¥11.81B	7.84	―	0.30%	5.03%	-17.66%
3093	65 Neutral	¥40.35B	9.40	―	2.19%	17.90%	14.14%
7685	65 Neutral	¥202.14B	27.65	―	0.64%	57.01%	91.03%
9278	64 Neutral	¥30.62B	11.19	―	1.73%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
2681	60 Neutral	¥66.44B	4.34	―	1.81%	6.48%	-38.41%