ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (JP:2491)
:2491
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ValueCommerce Co., Ltd.
(2491)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
¥480.00
▼(-29.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating financial performance (revenue decline, margin compression, net loss, and sharply weaker free cash flow), partially offset by a very low-risk balance sheet (zero debt). Technicals show only a modest near-term recovery while the longer-term trend remains weak, and valuation is mixed with a high P/E but a very strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Performance-based affiliate model
ValueCommerce's core affiliate and performance marketing model aligns revenue with measurable advertiser outcomes, creating durable recurring fee flows tied to conversions. This outcome-based model supports long-term client retention and scales with merchant transaction volume, producing stable structural demand.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline and net loss
A sustained ~22% TTM revenue drop and transition to a net loss reflect weakening demand or execution issues. Persistent top-line contraction compresses margins and reduces reinvestment capacity, risking market share loss and making recovery slower absent structural improvements or new revenue streams.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Performance-based affiliate model
ValueCommerce's core affiliate and performance marketing model aligns revenue with measurable advertiser outcomes, creating durable recurring fee flows tied to conversions. This outcome-based model supports long-term client retention and scales with merchant transaction volume, producing stable structural demand.
Read all positive factors
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (2491) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥15.48B
Dividend Yield7.85%
Average Volume (3M)275.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth-38.96%
EPS Growth-127.02%
CountryJP
Employees404
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-36.47
Shares Outstanding34,471,000
10 Day Avg. Volume295,840
30 Day Avg. Volume275,036
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio7.71
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-9.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥16.64B
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. provides marketing solutions in Japan and internationally. The company develops and offers affiliate marketing services, including pay-per-performance advertising services; and Value Point Club, a cash-back program that all...
How the Company Makes Money
ValueCommerce primarily makes money by providing performance marketing services where advertisers (merchants/brands) pay based on measurable outcomes rather than only ad impressions. A key revenue stream is affiliate marketing: ValueCommerce opera...
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.88B | 24.17B | 30.41B | 29.40B | 35.71B | 33.56B |
| Gross Profit | 5.90B | 7.35B | 9.98B | 10.15B | 12.83B | 12.88B |
| EBITDA | 954.00M | 2.36B | 4.59B | 5.70B | 8.72B | 8.70B |
| Net Income | -790.00M | 487.00M | 2.85B | 3.40B | 5.81B | 3.26B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.44B | 16.14B | 19.71B | 28.47B | 28.20B | 24.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.07B | 11.03B | 11.78B | 21.53B | 20.18B | 15.50B |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 3.88B | 3.96B | 6.84B | 6.01B | 7.38B | 7.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.56B | 12.18B | 12.86B | 22.46B | 20.82B | 16.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 243.00M | 1.87B | 3.38B | 3.49B | 6.79B | 5.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 304.00M | 1.92B | 3.47B | 3.53B | 6.82B | 5.53B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -955.00M | -1.44B | -716.00M | -434.00M | -408.00M | -101.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.05B | -1.23B | -12.51B | -1.75B | -1.72B | -1.35B |
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis
Neutral
685.00
Price Trends
446.84
Positive
551.38
Negative
647.83
Negative
Market Momentum
6.03
Negative
63.70
Neutral
73.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2491, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 685 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 449.00, above the 50-day MA of 446.84, and above the 200-day MA of 647.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:2491.
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | ¥12.98B | 22.31 | ― | 2.19% | 14.04% | 2.69% | |
66 Neutral | ¥8.49B | 12.89 | ― | 2.61% | 11.54% | 222.33% | |
66 Neutral | ¥18.58B | 8.10 | ― | 2.01% | 4.60% | 6.55% | |
65 Neutral | ¥14.24B | 10.92 | ― | 1.51% | 8.31% | 60.19% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
54 Neutral | ¥15.48B | -10.28 | ― | 7.85% | -38.96% | -127.02% | |
50 Neutral | ¥12.28B | 2.40 | ― | ― | -0.41% | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
JP:2491
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ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Corporate Events
ValueCommerce Swings to Loss and Cuts FY2026 Dividend Outlook Amid Revenue Drop
Apr 28, 2026
ValueCommerce reported non-consolidated Q1 FY2026 results showing net sales of ¥2,896 million and a net loss of ¥224 million, reflecting a move from previously consolidated to non-consolidated disclosure. Assets and equity declined modes...
ValueCommerce Finalizes Adjusted Treasury Share Disposition for Restricted Stock Compensation
Apr 24, 2026
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. has completed the payment process for a previously approved disposition of treasury shares to be used as restricted share-based remuneration for its directors, as well as restricted shares for executive officers and employe...
ValueCommerce Expands Restricted Stock Compensation to Directors, Executives and Staff
Mar 25, 2026
ValueCommerce has approved the disposal of 64,990 shares of its treasury stock, worth approximately ¥27.7 million at ¥426 per share, to six directors, three executive officers and 25 employees as restricted share-based remuneration. The ...
ValueCommerce to Relocate Tokyo Head Office, Amending Articles of Incorporation
Feb 20, 2026
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. plans to amend its Articles of Incorporation to relocate its head office from Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, to Minato-ku, Tokyo, as approved by its Board of Directors. The move is intended to support hybrid work practices, signaling a...
ValueCommerce refreshes board and audit structure ahead of 2026 shareholders meeting
Feb 20, 2026
ValueCommerce announced planned changes to its board of directors, with the current slate of executive directors, including President and CEO Jin Kagawa and CFO Masatomo Endo, all standing for reelection at the March 25, 2026 shareholders meeting....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.