MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. (2270) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥236.37B
• Dividend Yield: 2.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 167.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.28
• Revenue Growth: 0.32%
• EPS Growth: -20.60%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 5,731
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 173.82
• Shares Outstanding: 70,751,854
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 230,700
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 167,820
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.04K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 489.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥619.00B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,771.00 ▲(16.57% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

Overall score is driven by a solid balance sheet and attractive valuation, supported by a constructive technical trend. The main offset is fundamental risk from the steep TTM revenue contraction and negative TTM free cash flow, which keeps the score in the upper-middle range rather than higher.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Improved leverage and a large equity base materially increase financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk. This conservatively positioned balance sheet supports investment, working-capital needs and dividend capacity across a 2–6 month horizon, cushioning operating volatility.

Diversified products & channels

A broad portfolio (consumer dairy, B2B ingredients, and functional products) and multiple distribution channels reduce single-market dependence. Manufacturing scale and brand equity support resilience to demand shifts and enable margin mix management over the medium term.

Earnings recovery vs recent annual period

Improved trailing earnings despite top-line pressure suggests effective cost control or favorable product mix. Sustained profit recovery supports reinvestment and stakeholder returns, and provides a base for margin improvement if revenue stabilizes over the coming months.

Negative Factors

Sharp TTM revenue decline

A pronounced revenue contraction erodes scale economics, pressures fixed-cost absorption and weakens bargaining leverage with retailers. If this trend persists, it could force margin sacrifices or restructuring, impairing durable earnings and growth prospects over the medium term.

Negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, innovation or dividends and raises reliance on external financing. Even with a solid balance sheet, persistent FCF deficits constrain strategic flexibility and increase execution risk over the next several quarters.

Modest margins and returns

Relatively low ROE and slim net margins limit internal capital generation and vulnerability to input-cost shocks. In a commodity-linked packaged foods industry, modest returns constrain investment capacity and raise sensitivity to persistent cost or competitive pressure.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells cow's milk, milk products, and other food products in Japan and internationally. It offers dairy products, including butter, margarine, cheese, condensed and skim milk, etc.; beverages and desserts, such as milk and milk beverages, yogurts, fruit and vegetable juices, soft drinks, desserts, etc.; feed stuffs and seeds, landscaping, etc.; and nutrition products, including infant formula, functional foods, etc. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products across various market segments, including retail, food service, and industrial channels. Key revenue streams include direct sales of milk, cheese, yogurt, and ice cream to consumers and businesses. The company also invests in product development and marketing to differentiate its offerings and capture market share. Significant partnerships with retailers and food service providers enhance distribution capabilities and brand visibility, contributing to consistent sales growth. Additionally, MEGMILK SNOW BRAND may explore export opportunities and collaborations with international partners to expand its market reach and diversify revenue sources.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is the key positive (low/moderate leverage with improving debt-to-equity), but performance is held back by a sharp TTM revenue decline and weak cash conversion. TTM free cash flow is negative, which reduces flexibility if it persists, despite improved TTM earnings versus the most recent annual period.

Income Statement

Profitability is steady but not high: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin is ~16.5% and net margin ~2.6%, with operating margin ~3.4%. Earnings improved versus the most recent annual period (TTM net income ¥23.6B vs. ¥13.9B), but growth is the key concern—TTM revenue shows a sharp decline (-25.5%) versus positive growth in the last few annual years. Overall, margins are fairly consistent for a packaged foods business, but the recent revenue contraction keeps the score in the middle range.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet looks conservatively positioned. Leverage is moderate with TTM debt-to-equity around 0.24 (improved from ~0.41 in 2021), supported by a sizable equity base (TTM equity ¥234.7B vs. debt ¥51.6B). Returns are reasonable (TTM return on equity ~6.9%), though down from the stronger 2024 level (~8.4%), indicating profitability is adequate but not exceptional. Overall: improving leverage and solid capitalization, tempered by only mid-level returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed and recently weaker. TTM operating cash flow is positive (¥21.7B) but is low relative to profits (about 16% of net income), and TTM free cash flow is negative (about -¥5.7B), implying heavier investment or working-capital pressure. While prior years showed healthier free cash flow (e.g., 2024 positive and meaningfully above net income), the latest TTM reversal raises execution and funding flexibility risk if it persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	611.83B	615.82B	605.42B	584.31B	558.40B	615.19B
Gross Profit	102.38B	101.50B	98.28B	87.19B	89.44B	142.61B
EBITDA	39.02B	36.31B	45.96B	30.65B	35.12B	35.79B
Net Income	23.57B	13.90B	19.43B	9.13B	12.07B	14.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	432.62B	431.07B	431.22B	410.13B	401.89B	398.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.92B	21.37B	29.00B	20.35B	19.99B	21.84B
Total Debt	51.57B	56.52B	58.87B	69.88B	72.23B	79.37B
Total Liabilities	194.87B	183.03B	195.92B	194.23B	192.36B	200.40B
Stockholders Equity	234.66B	244.68B	232.09B	212.88B	206.78B	195.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.65B	167.00M	11.88B	7.04B	9.45B	-4.55B
Operating Cash Flow	21.71B	21.10B	30.46B	26.81B	29.42B	26.57B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.63B	-18.51B	-6.31B	-19.62B	-20.21B	-27.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-27.54B	-10.38B	-15.64B	-7.29B	-11.26B	6.77B

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3235.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2270, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3235 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3473.25, below the 50-day MA of 3385.10, and above the 200-day MA of 3003.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 25.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2270.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2602	69 Neutral	¥197.70B	8.38	12.56%	3.44%	3.80%	63.03%
2270	68 Neutral	¥236.37B	9.38	―	2.47%	0.32%	-20.60%
2206	65 Neutral	¥393.51B	76.68	2.66%	1.64%	8.40%	-23.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2269	62 Neutral	¥1.11T	23.73	5.97%	2.96%	2.79%	-6.46%
2264	59 Neutral	¥440.06B	31.87	―	2.42%	2.33%	-8.76%
2607	57 Neutral	¥342.82B	15.70	―	1.45%	20.02%	―

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Megmilk Snow Brand Updates FY2025 Results and Revises Full‑Year Net Sales Outlook

Megmilk Snow Brand has released supplementary financial information for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, including consolidated income statements, segment performance by product, cash flow data and balance sheet figures. The company also revised its full‑year consolidated net sales forecast for the year ending March 31, 2026 from the guidance issued in November 2025, signaling an updated view of market conditions and business momentum for stakeholders.

The materials show year‑on‑year changes in net sales, operating profit and ordinary profit, along with analysis of factors driving shifts in profitability and major management indicators. By tying these results and forecasts to its “Next Design 2030” KPIs, Megmilk Snow Brand is linking short‑term financial performance with longer‑term strategic goals, offering investors and business partners greater visibility into its operational trajectory and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.

Megmilk Snow Brand Profit Jumps on Buyback Despite Softer Sales

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND reported consolidated net sales of ¥465.8 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, down 0.8% year on year, with operating profit falling 10.3% to ¥14.6 billion and ordinary profit down 5.8% to ¥16.6 billion. Despite weaker sales and margins, profit attributable to owners of the parent surged 77.4% to ¥22.1 billion, helped by factors such as share repurchases, which also reduced the average number of shares and lifted basic EPS to ¥350.01.

Total assets were broadly flat at ¥432.6 billion, but net assets declined to ¥237.7 billion and the equity ratio slipped to 54.2%, reflecting increased treasury stock after an ongoing share buyback. The company maintained its annual dividend forecast of ¥100 per share and slightly revised full-year guidance, now expecting virtually flat sales at ¥615 billion, modestly lower operating profit of ¥19 billion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent to more than double to ¥30 billion as financial effects of the buyback support per-share earnings.

Management noted that three subsidiaries, including Royal Farm Co., Ltd., were removed from the scope of consolidation during the period, which may influence segment comparisons. MEGMILK SNOW BRAND will brief analysts and institutional investors on these results and its outlook, as it balances share repurchases, stable dividends, and modest profit growth against a sluggish top line and softer profitability in its core dairy operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Appoints Substitute Audit Director After Board Member’s Death

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND has announced the death of Director and Audit & Supervisory Committee member Hiroyuki Ito on February 9, 2026, which immediately ended his tenure. The company expressed condolences and acknowledged his contributions, while noting that his passing temporarily reduced the number of Audit & Supervisory Committee directors below the legal minimum.

To restore compliance with statutory governance requirements, substitute director Kotaro Yamashita assumed the role of Director and Audit & Supervisory Committee member on February 10, 2026. Yamashita, a long-serving insider with extensive general affairs and internal audit experience within the Megmilk Snow Brand group, will serve the remainder of Ito’s term, helping ensure continuity in oversight and internal control functions.

Yamashita’s career includes senior roles in general affairs and internal audit at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND and audit positions at group company Snow Brand Seed Co., Ltd. His appointment underscores the company’s reliance on experienced internal personnel to stabilize its governance structure following the unexpected vacancy. The change is largely procedural but relevant for shareholders monitoring board composition and compliance with corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Reports Progress on Large-Scale Share Buyback Program

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. has disclosed the January 2026 progress of its ongoing share repurchase program, buying back 243,100 shares of common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for a total of ¥818.8 million during the month. The buybacks form part of a larger program authorized in May 2025 to repurchase up to 10 million shares or ¥20 billion by March 13, 2026, under which the company has cumulatively acquired 6,581,200 shares for approximately ¥18.85 billion as of January 31, 2026, signaling a strong commitment to capital returns and potentially enhancing shareholder value through reduced share float.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3674.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.

Megmilk Snow Brand Reports Progress on Large-Scale Share Buyback Program

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. has disclosed the results of its share repurchase activity for December 2025, buying back 249,500 shares of common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for a total of approximately ¥776 million under its previously approved buyback program. This transaction forms part of a larger capital allocation initiative authorized in May 2025 that allows repurchases of up to 10 million shares or ¥20 billion through March 13, 2026, under which the company had cumulatively acquired 6,338,100 shares for about ¥18.0 billion by the end of December 2025, signaling continued efforts to enhance shareholder value and adjust its capital structure through treasury share acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Reports November Share Repurchase Results

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. announced the results of its share repurchase program for November 2025, acquiring 238,600 shares at a total cost of JPY 703,465,500. This move is part of a larger plan to repurchase up to 10,000,000 shares by March 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2270) stock is a Hold with a Yen3168.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2270 Stock Forecast page.