Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. (2264) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥326.34B
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 247.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 2.33%
• EPS Growth: -8.76%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,415
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 94.07
• Shares Outstanding: 89,045,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 265,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 247,786
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥4,002.00 ▲(8.78% Upside)

The overall stock score of 65 reflects a combination of strong technical momentum and a solid balance sheet, offset by profitability challenges and high valuation concerns. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and adapt to consumer trends, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Product Diversification

A diversified product portfolio reduces dependency on a single revenue stream, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations and supporting steady growth.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Declining profitability indicates challenges in cost management and pricing power, which could hinder the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings over time.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow poses a risk to financial health, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and potentially leading to increased borrowing or asset sales.

Declining ROE

A declining ROE suggests reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders, which may impact investor confidence and the company's attractiveness as an investment.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. (2264) is a leading Japanese dairy company specializing in the production and distribution of a wide range of dairy products. Established in 1917, the company operates in several sectors including milk, yogurt, cheese, and infant formula. Its core product offerings include liquid milk, processed cheese, yogurt, and various health supplements, which cater to both domestic and international markets. Morinaga is also known for its innovative approach to product development, focusing on nutrition and health.

How the Company Makes Money

Morinaga Milk Industry generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products, including liquid milk, yogurt, and cheese. The company leverages a diversified product portfolio to reach various consumer segments, contributing to a steady revenue stream. Key revenue streams include retail sales through supermarkets and convenience stores, as well as partnerships with food service providers and export markets. Additionally, Morinaga invests in research and development to enhance product offerings, which helps maintain competitiveness and address consumer trends. Strategic collaborations with health and wellness organizations further bolster its market presence, supporting long-term growth and profitability.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Morinaga Milk Industry shows stable revenue growth but faces profitability challenges, with declining net profit margins and ROE. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but negative free cash flow poses a significant risk.

Income Statement

Morinaga Milk Industry's revenue showed a moderate growth trend with a recent increase to ¥561.173 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin for 2025 stood at 24.06%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin declined significantly to 0.97% in 2025 from a higher margin in previous years, highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin of 5.29% and EBITDA margin of 7.39% suggest moderate operational efficiency, although they have room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 in 2025, suggesting a conservative leverage position. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 2.05% in 2025, showing a decline in shareholder returns. The equity ratio of 51.17% highlights a solid financial foundation, although the decrease in equity from previous years signals potential risks.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow of ¥12.456 billion and free cash flow of ¥-44.68 billion in 2025. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in converting earnings to cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating inefficiencies in cash generation from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	564.21B	561.17B	547.06B	525.60B	503.35B	583.55B
Gross Profit	135.81B	135.05B	131.96B	118.30B	122.28B	190.07B
EBITDA	42.78B	41.46B	113.53B	45.92B	70.39B	47.20B
Net Income	7.06B	5.46B	61.31B	16.88B	33.78B	18.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	547.97B	520.42B	566.00B	485.12B	458.79B	452.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.57B	28.56B	64.53B	21.10B	23.61B	19.26B
Total Debt	123.92B	104.73B	86.82B	101.33B	89.26B	104.29B
Total Liabilities	279.73B	249.32B	283.87B	257.99B	250.76B	250.85B
Stockholders Equity	263.57B	266.33B	277.18B	223.03B	206.07B	199.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-44.68B	23.44B	-205.00M	21.39B	10.36B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-12.46B	56.58B	19.38B	40.27B	38.54B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-18.79B	25.22B	-25.46B	8.37B	-25.30B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-5.03B	-38.62B	2.92B	-44.52B	-2.63B

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3679.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2264, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3679 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3719.75, above the 50-day MA of 3555.20, and above the 200-day MA of 3325.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 35.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2264.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2212	76 Outperform	¥670.55B	16.86	9.18%	1.11%	3.53%	4.88%
2269	74 Outperform	¥935.19B	20.31	5.97%	3.01%	2.79%	-6.46%
2229	69 Neutral	¥377.03B	21.42	8.27%	1.99%	5.82%	-13.40%
2270	69 Neutral	¥214.42B	12.95	―	2.44%	0.32%	-20.60%
2264	65 Neutral	¥326.34B	29.19	―	2.40%	2.33%	-8.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2206	62 Neutral	¥351.67B	48.17	2.66%	1.66%	8.40%	-23.50%

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Morinaga Milk Industry Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of its own shares, acquiring 176,800 common shares at a total cost of 635,457,100 yen between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the board to acquire up to 3,800,000 shares by March 31, 2026, with a maximum budget of 10,000 million yen, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

Morinaga Milk Reports Modest Growth Amidst Domestic Challenges

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. reported a slight increase in net sales and operating profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by strong performance in the global whey market. However, the domestic market faced challenges due to lower volumes and rising costs. The company revised its full-year operating profit forecast upward, despite a downward revision for the second half due to domestic sales trends and cost impacts. Morinaga is focusing on growth areas and improving efficiency, with plans to reorganize production structures and consolidate paper pack lines by 2029.

Morinaga Milk Reports Positive Financial Performance for First Half of FY 2026

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. released its financial results for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, showing a slight increase in net sales and operating profit. The company experienced growth in profit attributable to owners of the parent, indicating a positive trend in its financial performance, which could enhance its market position and benefit stakeholders.

Morinaga Milk Reports Strong Profit Growth and Positive Outlook

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. reported a modest increase in net sales by 0.9% for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with significant growth in operating profit and ordinary profit by 18.9% and 27.3% respectively. The company also announced a forecasted increase in annual dividends and an upward revision of its profit forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for stakeholders.

Morinaga Milk Industry Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of 356,300 of its own common shares at a total cost of 1,196,561,800 yen during October 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the board to acquire up to 3,800,000 shares by March 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

Morinaga Milk Industry Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of 166,100 of its own shares, with a total acquisition cost of 584,637,500 yen, during the period from September 1 to September 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the board of directors to acquire up to 3,800,000 shares by March 31, 2026, with a total budget of 10,000 million yen, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

Morinaga Milk Industry’s Strategic Relocation and Complex Development

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. announced its plans to construct a large-scale complex on the site of the former Morinaga Plaza Building, which will include offices and retail spaces. The project, involving joint development partners Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. and East Japan Railway Company, is set to begin construction in October 2025 and complete by 2033. This strategic move aims to relocate Morinaga’s head office by 2029, enhancing its operational capabilities without impacting its earnings for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.