Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. (2264) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥440.06B
• Dividend Yield: 2.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 247.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: 2.33%
• EPS Growth: -8.76%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,415
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 89.81
• Shares Outstanding: 89,045,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 265,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 247,786
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 242.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥577.50B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥5,003.00 ▲(34.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/18/25

The overall stock score of 65 reflects a combination of strong technical momentum and a solid balance sheet, offset by profitability challenges and high valuation concerns. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Conservative Leverage / Strong Equity Base

A low debt-to-equity ratio (0.39) and a ~51% equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure supports investment, weathering commodity or demand shocks, and reduces refinancing risk, underpinning long-term stability and strategic optionality.

Diversified dairy and nutrition portfolio

A broad product set across staple dairy, infant nutrition and frozen desserts diversifies revenue and reduces single-category exposure. Strong branded categories like infant formula and fermented products support recurring demand and pricing power, sustaining durable cash flows.

Stable revenue growth and solid gross margin

Moderate top-line growth with a 24% gross margin indicates efficient production and ability to maintain product-level profitability. Scale and margin mix in value-added categories support reinvestment in R&D, marketing, and distribution over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak net profitability and falling ROE

A sub-1% net margin and a ~2% ROE signal limited retained earnings generation and poor shareholder returns. Persistently thin net profits constrain reinvestment, dividend capacity, and make the business more vulnerable to cost inflation or input-price swings over the medium term.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Negative operating and free cash flow indicate difficulty converting accounting profits into cash, limiting the company's ability to fund capex, pay down debt, or return capital without tapping reserves. This weak cash conversion is a durable operational risk if unresolved.

Declining EPS growth

A large negative EPS growth rate reflects material downward pressure on earnings, suggesting structural margin erosion or rising costs. Sustained earnings declines reduce internal funding for innovation and expansion, and may signal competitive or operational headwinds.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells various dairy products in Japan and internationally. The company offers milk, yogurt, cheese, and butter products, as well as chilled desserts, ice creams, infant formulas and baby foods, health foods, and liquid diet and nursing care foods; milk-based drinks, coffee drinks, chilled tea beverages, and various other products; and other products, such as creaming powders, condensed milks, and TOFU products. It also provides infant and toddler milk ingredients, including whey protein concentrate and lactose, as well as lactoferrin. In addition, the company is involved in the processing and packaging products, such as tofu and other soy-based products. Further, it engages in the mail-order sale of health food products; and offers hygiene management equipment. The company was formerly known as Nippon Rennyu Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. in 1949. Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Morinaga Milk Industry generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products, including liquid milk, yogurt, and cheese. The company leverages a diversified product portfolio to reach various consumer segments, contributing to a steady revenue stream. Key revenue streams include retail sales through supermarkets and convenience stores, as well as partnerships with food service providers and export markets. Additionally, Morinaga invests in research and development to enhance product offerings, which helps maintain competitiveness and address consumer trends. Strategic collaborations with health and wellness organizations further bolster its market presence, supporting long-term growth and profitability.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Morinaga Milk Industry shows stable revenue growth but faces profitability challenges with declining net profit margins and ROE. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, yet cash flow issues, particularly negative free cash flow, pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Morinaga Milk Industry's revenue showed a moderate growth trend with a recent increase to ¥561.173 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin for 2025 stood at 24.06%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin declined significantly to 0.97% in 2025 from a higher margin in previous years, highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin of 5.29% and EBITDA margin of 7.39% suggest moderate operational efficiency, although they have room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 in 2025, suggesting a conservative leverage position. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 2.05% in 2025, showing a decline in shareholder returns. The equity ratio of 51.17% highlights a solid financial foundation, although the decrease in equity from previous years signals potential risks.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow of ¥12.456 billion and free cash flow of ¥-44.68 billion in 2025. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in converting earnings to cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating inefficiencies in cash generation from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	564.21B	561.17B	547.06B	525.60B	503.35B	583.55B
Gross Profit	135.81B	135.05B	131.96B	118.30B	122.28B	190.07B
EBITDA	42.78B	41.46B	113.53B	45.92B	70.39B	47.20B
Net Income	7.06B	5.46B	61.31B	16.88B	33.78B	18.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	547.97B	520.42B	566.00B	485.12B	458.79B	452.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.57B	28.56B	64.53B	21.10B	23.61B	19.26B
Total Debt	123.92B	104.73B	86.82B	101.33B	89.26B	104.29B
Total Liabilities	279.73B	249.32B	283.87B	257.99B	250.76B	250.85B
Stockholders Equity	263.57B	266.33B	277.18B	223.03B	206.07B	199.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-44.68B	23.44B	-205.00M	21.39B	10.36B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-12.46B	56.58B	19.38B	40.27B	38.54B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-18.79B	25.22B	-25.46B	8.37B	-25.30B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-5.03B	-38.62B	2.92B	-44.52B	-2.63B

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3724.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2264, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3724 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4344.75, below the 50-day MA of 4033.26, and above the 200-day MA of 3542.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 196.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2264.

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2809	71 Outperform	¥622.46B	20.30	9.28%	1.30%	5.50%	27.32%
2270	68 Neutral	¥236.37B	9.38	―	2.47%	0.32%	-20.60%
2264	65 Neutral	¥440.06B	31.87	―	2.42%	2.33%	-8.76%
2206	65 Neutral	¥393.51B	76.68	2.66%	1.64%	8.40%	-23.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2269	62 Neutral	¥1.11T	23.73	5.97%	2.96%	2.79%	-6.46%
2607	57 Neutral	¥342.82B	15.70	―	1.45%	20.02%	―

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Morinaga Milk Announces Leadership Change as Executive Vice President to Step Down

Morinaga Milk Industry has announced a leadership change, with Representative Director and Executive Vice President Teiichiro Okawa set to resign from his role and transition to an advisor position. The change will take effect at the conclusion of the company’s Annual General Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for late June 2026, signaling a planned and orderly handover at the top management level that may influence the firm’s strategic direction and governance structure.

The move reflects a retirement-driven shift in the composition of the representative directors rather than a sudden management overhaul, suggesting continuity in operations despite the executive reshuffle. Stakeholders, including investors and business partners, are likely to view the transition as part of routine succession planning, with limited immediate disruption but potential medium‑term implications for leadership style and corporate priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4459.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Hits Record Quarterly Profit, Keeps Full-Year Outlook Unchanged

Morinaga Milk Industry reported third-quarter net sales of ¥437.8 billion, up 1.6% year on year, and operating profit of ¥30.7 billion, a ¥5.2 billion increase that marked record highs for both the quarter and the nine-month period. The global business outperformed forecasts, driven by strong contributions from MILEI amid high whey prices and higher sales of probiotics and formula milk.

Domestic operations tracked internal projections but faced a difficult sales environment, as lower volumes and elevated raw material and operational costs weighed on performance despite ongoing price revisions and product mix improvements. The company also booked one-off expenses tied to acquired assets and inventory disposals as part of balance sheet normalization but left its full-year March 2026 forecasts unchanged, expecting robust global performance in the fourth quarter to offset domestic headwinds and planned future-oriented spending.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4459.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Lifts Margins as Nine-Month Profit Nearly Doubles Pace of Sales

Morinaga Milk Industry reported steady top-line growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net sales rising 1.6% year-on-year to ¥437.8 billion and gross profit up 6.6%, supported by improved cost ratios and restrained logistics and promotional spending. Operating profit for the nine-month period climbed 20.4% to ¥30.7 billion and ordinary profit surged 25.8% to ¥32.8 billion, while profit attributable to owners of parent jumped 48.8% to ¥21.9 billion, reflecting stronger margins and a recovery from last year’s depressed earnings.

The company maintained cost of sales at roughly three-quarters of revenue while holding selling, general and administrative expenses around 18% of sales, helping lift profitability metrics including ROE and ROA. Management plans capital investment of ¥47.6 billion and depreciation of ¥23.5 billion for the full year, and forecasts full-year net sales of ¥570 billion and operating profit of ¥33 billion, pointing to continued earnings growth and a sustained improvement in balance-sheet efficiency, even as leverage ratios inch higher with expanded interest-bearing debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4459.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Lifts Profits Sharply and Hikes Dividend Outlook for FY2026

Morinaga Milk reported consolidated net sales of ¥437.8 billion for the nine months to December 31, 2025, up 1.6% year on year, with operating profit jumping 20.4% and profit attributable to owners of parent surging 48.8% as earnings per share climbed to ¥266.78. The improved performance, alongside a solid shareholders’ equity ratio of 48.3%, underpins plans for a modest dividend increase to a full-year ¥93.00 per share and a full-year forecast that, while assuming only 1.6% sales growth, projects double-digit profit gains and a sharp rebound in full-year net income, signaling enhanced profitability and potentially stronger returns for shareholders.

For the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, the company is guiding net sales of ¥570.0 billion and operating profit of ¥33.0 billion, implying continued margin improvement after last year’s weaker results. The outlook for profit attributable to owners of parent at ¥19.0 billion, up 248.0% year on year, highlights a strong earnings recovery trajectory that may improve Morinaga Milk’s competitive position in Japan’s mature dairy market while reinforcing investor confidence through stable, slightly rising dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4459.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Morinaga Milk Industry has disclosed the latest status of its ongoing share buyback program, reporting the acquisition of 160,400 common shares for a total of 621.69 million yen during the period from January 1 to January 31, 2026. This purchase forms part of a broader board-approved authorization, in place from May 14, 2025 to March 31, 2026, allowing up to 3.8 million shares or 10 billion yen to be repurchased via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange; as of January 1, 2026, the company had already bought back 2,624,100 shares for approximately 8.9 billion yen, underscoring a continued focus on capital efficiency and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen3872.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Reports Progress on Ongoing Share Buyback Program

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. has disclosed the latest status of its share buyback program, reporting the purchase of 159,600 common shares for a total of 590.19 million yen on a trade-date basis between December 1 and December 31, 2025. This transaction forms part of a broader board-approved repurchase authorization, under which the company may buy back up to 3.8 million shares or 10 billion yen of its stock via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between May 14, 2025 and March 31, 2026. As of December 31, 2025, Morinaga has cumulatively acquired 2,463,700 shares at a total cost of approximately 8.28 billion yen, signaling an ongoing effort to return capital to shareholders and potentially improve capital efficiency and shareholder value through reduced share count.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4002.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.

Morinaga Milk Industry Announces Treasury Stock Acquisition

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of its own shares, acquiring 176,800 common shares at a total cost of 635,457,100 yen between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the board to acquire up to 3,800,000 shares by March 31, 2026, with a maximum budget of 10,000 million yen, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2264) stock is a Hold with a Yen4002.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2264 Stock Forecast page.