Thinca Co., Ltd. (149A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 21.34%
• EPS Growth: 99.62%
• Country: JP
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -1.15
• Shares Outstanding: 3,214,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,900
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,343
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥915.00 ▲(10.91% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong revenue growth, high gross margins, and a conservatively levered balance sheet, tempered by compressed profitability and uneven free cash flow. Technically, signals are mixed with elevated RSI but negative MACD, and valuation is a headwind due to the high P/E.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Gross margins near 79–83% are a durable structural advantage for an application software company: they produce strong contribution margins, enable scalable operating leverage as revenue grows, and provide lasting capacity to fund R&D and go-to-market without immediate margin erosion.

Multi-year revenue growth

Consistent multi-year revenue growth with a clear acceleration in 2025 signals expanding product adoption and deeper market penetration. Sustained top-line momentum supports long-term reinvestment, broadened customer footprints, and the potential to convert scale into more durable profits over time.

Conservative balance sheet

A conservatively levered balance sheet reduces financial risk and preserves strategic optionality: low leverage limits refinancing pressure, supports investment during cycles, and gives management flexibility to fund growth or opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity.

Negative Factors

Compressed net margins

Net margins falling to low single-digits despite revenue growth indicate rising operating costs or heavy reinvestment. Persistently thin margins reduce retained earnings and make the business more sensitive to cost inflation or revenue slowdowns, weakening long-term cash generation.

Uneven free cash flow

Highly variable free cash flow and operating cash conversion create predictability problems for funding capex, M&A, or shareholder returns. This variability can force reliance on external financing at inopportune times, reducing durable financial flexibility.

Earnings / ROE volatility

Wide swings in ROE and earnings history point to execution sensitivity or cyclical performance. Such volatility complicates forecasting, increases perceived execution risk, and may limit investor confidence in the sustainability of recent profit improvements.

Thinca Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Thinca Co., Ltd. provides information technology system planning, development and operation services for cloud based products. It operates through a single segment namely Caicra Business. The company was founded by Takahiro Ejiri on January 8, 2014 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

null

Thinca Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and very high gross margins (~79–83%) support a solid operating profile, and leverage is low. Offsetting this, net margin has compressed to low single-digits in 2024–2025 and free cash flow has been uneven, indicating variable operating leverage and cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the past several years (including a sharp acceleration in 2025), and gross margin is consistently very high (~79–83%), which is a clear software-quality signal. However, profitability has been volatile: the company moved from losses in 2021–2022 to strong profits in 2023, but net margin compressed materially in 2024–2025 (low single-digits) even as revenue grew, suggesting higher operating costs and/or heavier reinvestment.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively levered with low debt relative to equity across periods (debt-to-equity staying in the low-to-mid single digits to low teens), which lowers financial risk. Equity has also expanded substantially since 2023, improving capital strength, though returns on equity have swung meaningfully (negative in 2021–2022, very strong in 2023, and modest in 2024), reflecting earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved versus the loss-making years: 2023–2025 show positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, with 2025 free cash flow close to net income. That said, free cash flow was highly uneven (a steep drop in 2024 versus 2023, then a rebound in 2025), and operating cash flow has been only a modest share of revenue in 2024–2025, pointing to variability in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	702.75M	1.46B	1.23B	1.04B	768.27M	577.09M
Gross Profit	582.93M	1.20B	990.92M	854.00M	597.66M	444.73M
EBITDA	46.96M	82.90M	103.28M	121.48M	-138.61M	-85.02M
Net Income	27.40M	42.95M	16.07M	108.90M	-136.12M	-89.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.25B	1.28B	1.51B	810.92M	716.13M	529.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	979.64M	984.50M	972.05M	319.54M	218.52M	416.43M
Total Debt	60.00M	60.00M	90.00M	23.98M	34.53M	37.83M
Total Liabilities	229.30M	232.22M	533.24M	418.98M	433.10M	109.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.02B	1.05B	978.01M	391.94M	283.04M	419.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	69.65M	60.52M	141.50M	-194.26M	-120.48M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	79.34M	101.62M	146.66M	-185.70M	-97.26M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-63.38M	-64.92M	-35.08M	-8.92M	22.01M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-3.50M	615.81M	-10.56M	-3.30M	-3.30M

Thinca Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 825.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:149A, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 825 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 725.70, above the 50-day MA of 771.94, and below the 200-day MA of 884.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:149A.

Thinca Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4491	82 Outperform	¥6.11B	10.91	―	1.87%	6.18%	29.79%
5256	69 Neutral	¥2.76B	27.18	―	―	13.48%	61.77%
5033	66 Neutral	¥4.86B	21.99	―	―	7.60%	19.13%
149A	65 Neutral	¥2.96B	56.75	―	―	21.34%	99.62%
3826	64 Neutral	¥4.98B	9.17	―	2.28%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
3976	54 Neutral	¥2.26B	-91.39	―	―	-14.55%	-8.13%