Thinca Co., Ltd. (149A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 21.34%
• EPS Growth: 99.62%
• Country: JP
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -1.15
• Shares Outstanding: 3,214,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,900
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,343
• PEG Ratio: 0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥745.00 ▼(-9.70% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is supported primarily by strong revenue growth, very high gross margins, and a low-leverage balance sheet. It is held back by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and a demanding valuation (P/E ~52.9), alongside recent margin compression and uneven free cash flow.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins near 79–83% indicate scalable, high-value software and services economics. This supports long-term operating leverage: revenue growth can flow to profit once operating cost volatility is controlled, enabling durable margin advantage versus lower‑margin peers.

Strong revenue growth

Multi-year revenue growth with a sharp 2025 acceleration demonstrates sustainable market demand and commercial execution. Persistently positive top-line expansion supports scale benefits, recurring contract rollovers and cross-sell potential across consulting, cloud and analytics offerings.

Conservative balance sheet

Low debt-to-equity and expanding equity improve financial flexibility and reduce solvency risk. A conservatively levered balance sheet allows strategic reinvestment, M&A or buffering through downturns without forcing asset sales or distressed financing, supporting durable operations.

Negative Factors

Net margin compression

Compression from previously strong profits to low single-digit net margins suggests operating cost increases or heavy reinvestment that erode bottom-line scalability. If structural, this reduces cash available for reinvestment or shareholder returns and can persistently lower ROIC.

Uneven free cash flow

Volatile FCF and modest operating cash conversion create uncertainty in funding growth, capital allocation, and balance sheet strengthening. Irregular cash generation complicates long-term investment planning and reduces predictability for buybacks, dividends, or debt reduction.

Earnings and ROE volatility

Large swings in profitability and ROE signal earnings sensitivity to project timing, client concentration, or cost variability. Persistent volatility undermines forecasting, increases required risk premia for long-term capital, and may hamper ability to sustain strategic multi-year programs.

Thinca Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Thinca Co., Ltd. provides information technology system planning, development and operation services for cloud based products. It operates through a single segment namely Caicra Business. The company was founded by Takahiro Ejiri on January 8, 2014 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Thinca Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through its service offerings, which include project-based contracts for software development and ongoing consulting services. Key revenue streams come from long-term agreements with corporate clients who seek to implement technology solutions tailored to their specific needs. The company also earns income through subscription-based models for its cloud services and data analytics platforms. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and industry leaders enhance Thinca's market reach and enable it to offer complementary services, further contributing to its earnings.

Thinca Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and consistently very high gross margins (~79–83%) support a solid operating profile, and the balance sheet is conservatively levered. Offsetting this, net margin compressed to low single-digits in 2024–2025 after strong 2023 profitability, and free cash flow has been uneven with variable cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the past several years (including a sharp acceleration in 2025), and gross margin is consistently very high (~79–83%), which is a clear software-quality signal. However, profitability has been volatile: the company moved from losses in 2021–2022 to strong profits in 2023, but net margin compressed materially in 2024–2025 (low single-digits) even as revenue grew, suggesting higher operating costs and/or heavier reinvestment.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively levered with low debt relative to equity across periods (debt-to-equity staying in the low-to-mid single digits to low teens), which lowers financial risk. Equity has also expanded substantially since 2023, improving capital strength, though returns on equity have swung meaningfully (negative in 2021–2022, very strong in 2023, and modest in 2024), reflecting earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved versus the loss-making years: 2023–2025 show positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, with 2025 free cash flow close to net income. That said, free cash flow was highly uneven (a steep drop in 2024 versus 2023, then a rebound in 2025), and operating cash flow has been only a modest share of revenue in 2024–2025, pointing to variability in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	702.75M	1.46B	1.23B	1.04B	768.27M	577.09M
Gross Profit	582.93M	1.20B	1.02B	867.57M	605.08M	451.62M
EBITDA	47.89M	82.90M	74.67M	118.59M	-137.94M	-76.88M
Net Income	27.40M	42.95M	16.07M	108.90M	-136.12M	-89.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.25B	1.28B	1.23B	536.75M	399.78M	529.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	979.64M	984.50M	972.05M	319.54M	218.52M	416.43M
Total Debt	60.00M	60.00M	90.00M	23.98M	34.53M	37.83M
Total Liabilities	229.30M	232.22M	250.94M	144.81M	116.74M	109.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.02B	1.05B	978.01M	391.94M	283.04M	419.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	69.65M	17.20M	127.70M	-194.61M	-120.48M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	79.34M	101.62M	146.66M	-185.70M	-97.26M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-63.38M	-64.92M	-35.08M	-8.92M	22.01M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-3.50M	615.81M	-10.56M	-3.30M	-3.30M

Thinca Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 825.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:149A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 825 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 753.65, above the 50-day MA of 788.90, and below the 200-day MA of 908.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -32.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:149A.

Thinca Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4491	82 Outperform	¥6.10B	13.80	―	1.87%	6.18%	29.79%
3826	70 Outperform	¥5.73B	7.55	―	2.28%	―	―
5256	69 Neutral	¥2.80B	16.02	―	―	13.48%	61.77%
5033	66 Neutral	¥4.80B	13.11	―	―	7.60%	19.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
149A	59 Neutral	¥2.22B	52.34	―	―	21.34%	99.62%
3976	54 Neutral	¥2.27B	-11.20	―	―	-14.55%	-8.13%