John B Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) AI Stock Analysis

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John B Sanfilippo & Son

(NASDAQ:JBSS)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$71.00

▲(12.27%Upside)

John B Sanfilippo & Son's overall stock score is bolstered by solid financial performance and effective cost management, leading to a significant increase in earnings per share. The valuation is attractive, with a high dividend yield. However, challenges such as declining sales volume and tariff impacts temper the outlook, resulting in a balanced score.

John B Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$745.74M

Dividend Yield13.24%

Average Volume (3M)79.43K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4

Beta (1Y)0.16

Revenue Growth7.40%

EPS Growth-14.93%

CountryUS

Employees1,800

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength55

IndustryPackaged Foods

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.72

Shares Outstanding9,161,348

10 Day Avg. Volume106,877

30 Day Avg. Volume79,427

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio16.83

Price to Book (P/B)4.73

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio13.30

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.87

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.32

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.82

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.42

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

John B Sanfilippo & Son Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; snack and trail mixes, salad toppings, snacks, snack bites, dried fruit, and chocolate and yogurt coated products; baking ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack products; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts brands, as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.

How the Company Makes MoneyJBSS generates revenue primarily through the sale of nut and nut-related products. The company's key revenue streams include retail sales under its proprietary brands, private label manufacturing for retailers, and bulk sales to commercial entities such as food manufacturers and foodservice operators. Strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors help expand its market reach. Additionally, JBSS benefits from value-added processing services such as roasting, seasoning, and packaging, which enhance its product offerings and contribute to its earnings.

John B Sanfilippo & Son Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: -4.57%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, with significant challenges such as decreasing sales volume, tariff impacts, and high commodity costs. However, there are positive aspects including increased gross profit, earnings per share, and strategic investments in domestic production capabilities.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increase in Gross Profit and Earnings Per Share

Gross profit increased by 13.7% to $55.9 million, and net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 was $20.2 million or $1.72 per diluted share, a 50% increase compared to $13.5 million or $1.15 per diluted share for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.

Investment in Domestic Production

The company plans to invest approximately $90 million in equipment to expand domestic production capabilities and improve infrastructure by the end of fiscal 2026, reflecting confidence in domestic manufacturing.

Contract Manufacturing Channel Growth

Sales volume increased by 6% in the Contract Manufacturing Distribution Channel, driven by increased granola volume processed in the Lakeville facility and opportunistic sales.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Net Sales and Sales Volume

Net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 decreased by 4% to $260.9 million due to a 7.9% decrease in sales volume, which was partially offset by a 4.2% increase in weighted average sales price per pound.

Challenges with Tariffs and Commodity Costs

There are significant challenges with higher commodity costs for nuts and tariffs on items such as cashews and pepitas, with some products incurring tariffs over 140%.

Decline in Private Brand and Branded Products

Sales volume decreased 9.2% in the Consumer Distribution Channel, with a 12.9% decrease in branded products, impacted by delayed orders and reduced sales to mass merchandising retailers.

Company Guidance

In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. reported a 4% decline in net sales to $260.9 million, driven by a 7.9% decrease in sales volume, although this was partially offset by a 4.2% increase in the weighted average sales price per pound. Despite the challenges, the company achieved a 50% increase in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous year, attributable to effective cost control and strategic pricing aligned with rising commodity costs. Gross profit increased by $6.7 million, or 13.7%, to $55.9 million, with a gross profit margin improvement from 18.1% to 21.4%. This was partly due to inventory valuation adjustments related to transitioning from lower to higher-cost crop years for walnuts and pecans, although higher commodity acquisition costs for major tree nuts were a downside. The company plans a $90 million investment in expanding domestic production capabilities through equipment and infrastructure improvements by the end of fiscal 2026, signaling confidence in domestic manufacturing and long-term growth. Net income for the quarter rose to $20.2 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, compared to $13.5 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, in the same period last year, while the total value of inventories increased by $47.1 million, reflecting higher quantities and costs of finished goods and raw materials.

John B Sanfilippo & Son Financial Statement Overview

Summary

John B Sanfilippo & Son demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and strong profit margins. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with low leverage, supporting potential future investments. Cash flows are generally positive, though further optimization could enhance financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Positive

John B Sanfilippo & Son shows a solid gross profit margin and consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase from the previous year. The net profit margin is healthy, albeit slightly reduced, indicating room for improvement in cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting effective operational control.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, demonstrating financial stability and low leverage risk. The return on equity is robust, highlighting effective use of shareholder funds. However, maintaining liquidity levels should be a focus given the industry context.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow statements indicate a positive trend in free cash flow, though growth has decelerated. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient cash generation relative to earnings, but the free cash flow to net income ratio shows potential for enhancement in cash flow utilization.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.11B	1.07B	999.69M	955.87M	858.48M	880.09M
Gross Profit	204.31M	214.14M	211.63M	199.63M	184.99M	175.78M
EBITDA	101.31M	109.09M	108.02M	99.55M	99.57M	92.65M
Net Income	55.42M	60.25M	62.86M	61.79M	59.74M	54.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	0.00	515.58M	425.29M	447.26M	398.45M	407.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	484.00K	1.95M	415.00K	672.00K	1.53M
Total Debt	122.40M	55.57M	12.83M	52.65M	26.58M	52.05M
Total Liabilities	243.36M	192.96M	133.08M	168.44M	155.96M	169.22M
Stockholders Equity	346.61M	322.61M	292.21M	278.82M	242.49M	238.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-18.82M	73.36M	103.92M	1.85M	79.52M	48.59M
Operating Cash Flow	29.25M	101.67M	124.66M	19.60M	104.70M	63.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-48.20M	-87.35M	-24.29M	-11.38M	-22.95M	-14.05M
Financing Cash Flow	19.86M	-15.79M	-98.83M	-8.48M	-82.61M	-49.62M

John B Sanfilippo & Son Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price63.24

Price Trends

50DMA

63.41

Positive

100DMA

67.05

Negative

200DMA

77.93

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.13

Negative

RSI

50.87

Neutral

STOCH

34.97

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBSS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 63.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.01, below the 50-day MA of 63.41, and below the 200-day MA of 77.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JBSS.

John B Sanfilippo & Son Risk Analysis

John B Sanfilippo & Son disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. John B Sanfilippo & Son reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

John B Sanfilippo & Son Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SENEA	78 Outperform	$694.98M	17.21	6.77%	―	8.25%	-30.16%
BRFS	77 Outperform	$6.11B	8.45	23.47%	2.48%	3.82%	―
JBSS	74 Outperform	$745.74M	13.41	16.58%	13.24%	7.40%	-14.93%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$26.95B	14.96	-4.01%	3.23%	1.02%	-0.84%
THS	54 Neutral	$984.24M	150.08	0.43%	―	-3.37%	-65.26%
BGS	47 Neutral	$350.31M	―	-32.48%	17.31%	-7.06%	-83.82%
HAIN	44 Neutral	$134.48M	―	-31.83%	―	-8.50%	-186.18%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JBSS

John B Sanfilippo & Son

63.24

-30.69

-32.67%

BGS

B&G Foods

4.23

-2.77

-39.57%

BRFS

BRF SA

3.65

-0.46

-11.19%

SENEA

Seneca Foods

101.43

41.68

69.76%

HAIN

Hain Celestial

1.52

-5.43

-78.13%

THS

TreeHouse Foods

19.42

-17.69

-47.67%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 26, 2025