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John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS)
NASDAQ:JBSS
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John B Sanfilippo & Son
(NASDAQ:JBSS)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$83.00
▲(11.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
JBSS scores well on profitability and balance-sheet strength, supported by a favorable technical uptrend. The score is held back mainly by volatile free cash flow and earnings-call risks centered on declining volumes, higher costs, and inventory build despite improved margins.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a conservative capital structure provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital projects, support dividends, and absorb commodity or demand shocks. This reduces refinancing risk and preserves capacity to invest in growth without relying on volatile external funding sources.
Improving margins and profitability
Sustained margin improvement driven by cost controls and productivity initiatives suggests structural operating leverage. Higher gross margins and meaningful EPS growth indicate the company can convert sales into earnings more efficiently, supporting durable profitability even if volumes fluctuate.
Capacity expansion & product pipeline
Investing in bar manufacturing and new product R&D diversifies revenue mix away from commodity nut sales toward higher-margin, branded/innovation-led products. New capacity and early customer interest create a sustained growth engine and reduce reliance on legacy channels over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Material volume declines
Significant, multi-channel volume declines undermine revenue resilience and weaken fixed-cost absorption. If volume pressures persist, unit economics and margin sustainability could degrade, making investments and dividend policies harder to maintain without offsetting price or mix improvements.
Rising inventory & input costs
Higher commodity costs and a large inventory build tie up working capital and increase exposure to price volatility and obsolescence. This pressures cash conversion and can compress margins until pricing pass-through or mix improvements sustainably offset cost inflation.
Inconsistent free cash flow
Volatile FCF versus earnings implies working-capital swings and capex timing risk, limiting predictable funding for buybacks, dividends, or debt reduction. Persistent cash volatility reduces strategic optionality and increases vulnerability to sector cyclicality over the medium term.
John B Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$870.08M
Dividend Yield3.48%
Average Volume (3M)62.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth1.88%
EPS Growth21.05%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.53
Shares Outstanding9,089,384
10 Day Avg. Volume64,058
30 Day Avg. Volume62,834
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.97
Price to Book (P/B)2.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio-36.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$109.00Price Target Upside46.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)5.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.14B
John B Sanfilippo & Son Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; snack and trail mixes, salad toppings, snacks, snack bites, dried fruit, and chocolate and yogurt coated products; baking ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack products; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts brands, as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyJBSS makes money primarily by selling nut and nut-related products through multiple channels. (1) Branded retail packaged products: The company generates revenue by marketing and distributing its branded consumer products (e.g., packaged nuts, trail mixes, and other snack nut items) to retailers; revenue is recognized from product sales, and profitability depends on volume, brand positioning, pricing, and promotional activity. (2) Private-label retail products: JBSS also produces nut and snack products that are sold under retailers’ own brands; these contracts typically monetize JBSS’s processing and packaging scale and customer relationships, with revenue tied to contracted volumes and negotiated pricing. (3) Commercial/ingredient and foodservice sales: JBSS sells nuts and nut-based ingredients in bulk or customized forms (e.g., processed nuts, blends, and other inputs) to food manufacturers, bakeries, confectioners, and other commercial customers; this stream is driven by customer demand for ingredients and JBSS’s capabilities in cleaning, roasting, blanching, mixing, and other value-added processing. Across all streams, key earnings factors include the spread between selling prices and input costs (especially raw nut and peanut commodity costs), manufacturing and distribution efficiency, product mix (value-added vs. commodity-like items), and the company’s ability to manage volatility in agricultural supply and pricing. Information on any specific material partnerships is null.
John B Sanfilippo & Son Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
John B Sanfilippo & Son Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mix of encouraging financial and operational developments alongside clear demand and volume challenges. Financial highlights include top-line growth, improved gross profit and margins, a significant increase in diluted EPS (~32% in Q2) and a stronger year-to-date net income (~45% increase), supported by disciplined cost management, margin initiatives and reduced interest expense. Management is investing heavily in bar capacity (85% of equipment on site/in transit, production starting July 2026), returned capital via a $1.00 per share special dividend, and reported recent new and expanded commercial wins. Offsetting these positives are substantial declines in sales volume across multiple channels (overall pounds sold down ~9.7% in Q2), pronounced brand-specific declines (e.g., Orchard Valley Harvest -42%, Fisher -15%, private label bars -12%), higher commodity and inventory costs (inventory +14.4%, weighted average raw cost +11.8%), and lagging pricing pass-through, which together indicate continued demand softness and execution risk. Overall, the financial improvements and strategic investments are promising, but the volume declines and cost/inventory pressures moderate near-term outlook.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth — Q2
Net sales for Q2 FY2026 increased 4.6% year-over-year to $314.8 million (vs. $301.1 million in Q2 FY2025).
Profitability and EPS Improvement
Gross profit grew $6.9 million (13.2%) to $59.2 million; gross margin improved to 18.8% of net sales from 17.4%. Net income for Q2 was $18.0 million, or $1.53 per diluted share, compared with $13.6 million, or $1.16 per diluted share a year ago (diluted EPS increased ~32%).
Year-to-Date Financial Strength
Net sales for the first two quarters increased 6.3% to $613.5 million. Year-to-date net income rose to $36.7 million ($3.12 per diluted share) from $25.3 million ($2.60), an increase of approximately 45%.
Margin and Cost Management
Total operating expenses were essentially flat year-over-year (increase of $0.3M for the quarter) and decreased as a percent of sales to 10.5% from 10.9%. Improvements were driven by reduced manufacturing spending, supply chain efficiencies, lower marketing, freight and third-party warehouse costs, and other productivity initiatives.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Return
Distributed a special dividend of $1.00 per share at the start of Q3, signaling strong liquidity and disciplined capital allocation while simultaneously investing in growth-capacity projects.
Bar Capacity Expansion and Product Innovation
Major capital expenditure to expand bar manufacturing: ~85% of new equipment is on site or in transit, with production scheduled to begin in July 2026. Management reports strong early customer interest and a focused R&D/innovation pipeline targeting protein-forward bars.
Lower Interest Expense
Interest expense for Q2 decreased to $0.5 million from $0.8 million year-over-year, reducing finance costs.
Commercial Momentum and New Business Wins
Management noted recent new and expanded business wins across consumer, foodservice and contract manufacturing channels and emphasized focus on private brand growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Volume Declines Across Channels
Overall sales volume declined meaningfully in Q2: management reported a 9.7% decline in pounds sold year-over-year. Channel breakdowns include consumer distribution down 8.4%, contract manufacturing down 26.5%, and commercial ingredients roughly flat (-1.1%).
Brand and Category Volume Weakness
Notable brand declines: Orchard Valley Harvest pound shipments down 42% (driven by discontinued distribution at a national specialty retailer); Fisher snack nut and trail mix shipments down 15%; private label bar shipments down 12% (category softness at a major mass merchandiser).
Inventory Build and Cost Pressure
Total inventory value increased $29.6 million (14.4% year-over-year) due to higher commodity acquisition costs and greater on-hand WIP and finished goods. Weighted average cost per pound for raw nut and dried fruit increased 11.8% year-over-year, reflecting commodity inflation.
Channel-Specific Weaknesses and Lost Distribution
Business suffered from reduced private brand volumes and lost distribution at certain mass and nonfood retailers; granola/opportunistic contract manufacturing volumes were notably down, contributing to the contract manufacturing channel decline.
Pricing Pass-Through Lag and Consumer Headwinds
Management highlighted shifting consumer behavior, health-and-wellness trends and elevated retail selling prices weighing on volume. Typical retailer price review cadence (6 months plus 60–90 days to implement brand price changes) creates lag in passing through higher input costs.
Category-Level Pressure
Snack nut and trail mix category volumes were down 4% in pounds (prices up 8% for snack nuts and 6% for trail mixes). Private label performance in bars and snack categories was mixed, with private label bars down vs. last year despite category rebound driven by branded players.
Concentration Risk in Key Customers
Several declines were tied to specific customer actions (discontinuations, reduced distribution, and lowered promotional activity), highlighting customer-concentration and execution risk.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized execution and timing over explicit forward financial targets: ~85% of new bar equipment is on site or in transit with production planned to start in July 2026, the company paid a $1.00 per-share special dividend at the start of Q3 and is funding one of its largest capital expenditure initiatives to expand capacity. They stressed continued disciplined cost management and OFG margin-enhancement projects to sustain recent profitability gains—Q2 gross profit rose $6.9M to $59.2M and gross margin improved to 18.8% (from 17.4%), operating expenses were essentially flat (+$0.3M) and fell to 10.5% of sales (from 10.9%)—and expressed cautious optimism for H2 given commercial momentum. Key metrics to monitor going forward include Q2 net sales +4.6% to $314.8M, Q2 net income $18.0M or $1.53 diluted EPS (≈32% YoY EPS growth), YTD net sales +6.3% to $613.5M and YTD net income $36.7M or $3.12, alongside volume headwinds (Q2 sales volume down ~9.7%, consumer channel -8.4%, contract manufacturing -26.5%, YTD volume -5.3%), inventories up $29.6M (14.4%) and raw nut/dried fruit cost per pound up 11.8% YoY; management also noted pricing mechanics of six‑month retailer reviews and ~60–90 day brand price-change lead times.John B Sanfilippo & Son Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and recent performance are solid (Income Statement 78) with improving TTM margins and very conservative leverage (Balance Sheet 82). The key drag is inconsistent cash conversion (Cash Flow 58), with low/volatile free cash flow and periods of negative FCF that reduce flexibility.Income Statement
JBSS shows solid profitability and generally steady growth. Revenue in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is up strongly (about +121%), and margins improved versus the most recent annual period (net margin ~6.2% TTM vs ~5.3% FY2025; EBIT margin ~8.5% TTM vs ~7.4% FY2025). That said, longer-term margin peak appears to be behind the company (gross and operating margins are below FY2021–FY2023 levels), suggesting some cost or pricing pressure despite the recent rebound.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage and strong equity backing. Debt relative to equity is modest in TTM (about 0.18x) and improved versus FY2025 (about 0.28x). Returns on shareholders’ equity remain attractive (roughly 16%–22% historically and ~19.5% TTM), indicating good capital efficiency. A watch item is that debt has moved around materially year-to-year, but overall leverage remains manageable for the category.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed and less consistent than earnings. Operating cash flow improved in TTM (about $105M) versus FY2025, but free cash flow is relatively low in TTM (~$33M) and has swung negative in FY2025. The relationship between free cash flow and net income has been volatile (positive in FY2021–FY2024, negative in FY2025 and TTM), implying working-capital or capital-spending variability that can pressure cash available for buybacks, dividends, or debt paydown.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.11B | 1.07B | 999.69M | 955.87M | 858.48M |
| Gross Profit | 217.94M | 203.47M | 214.14M | 211.63M | 199.63M | 184.99M |
| EBITDA | 123.47M | 112.89M | 109.09M | 109.65M | 103.33M | 99.57M |
| Net Income | 70.36M | 58.93M | 60.25M | 62.86M | 61.79M | 59.74M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 617.73M | 597.60M | 515.58M | 425.29M | 447.26M | 398.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.40M | 585.00K | 484.00K | 1.95M | 415.00K | 672.00K |
| Total Debt | 67.88M | 102.12M | 52.94M | 12.83M | 52.65M | 26.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 247.60M | 236.91M | 192.96M | 133.08M | 168.44M | 155.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 370.12M | 360.70M | 322.61M | 292.21M | 278.82M | 242.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 32.77M | -20.17M | 73.36M | 103.92M | 1.85M | 79.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 105.25M | 30.55M | 101.67M | 124.66M | 19.60M | 104.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.47M | -50.82M | -87.35M | -24.29M | -11.38M | -22.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -31.72M | 20.38M | -15.79M | -98.83M | -8.48M | -82.61M |
John B Sanfilippo & Son Technical Analysis
Neutral
74.45
Price Trends
77.44
Negative
73.60
Positive
67.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.91
Positive
35.59
Neutral
34.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBSS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.45, below the 50-day MA of 77.44, and above the 200-day MA of 67.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JBSS.
John B Sanfilippo & Son Risk Analysis
John B Sanfilippo & Son disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. John B Sanfilippo & Son reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
John B Sanfilippo & Son Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $870.08M | 11.74 | 19.54% | 3.48% | 1.88% | 21.05% | |
74 Outperform | $949.87M | 4.20 | 13.51% | ― | 8.33% | 47.71% | |
63 Neutral | $1.52B | 5.80 | -36.19% | ― | -0.78% | 265.56% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $769.33M | 27.76 | 9.29% | ― | 11.31% | 99.83% | |
50 Neutral | $387.86M | -7.74 | -8.93% | 17.12% | -6.04% | -844.18% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
JBSS
John B Sanfilippo & Son
74.45
6.35
9.33%
BGS
B&G Foods
4.85
-1.24
-20.35%
HLF
Herbalife
14.71
6.62
81.83%
SENEA
Seneca Foods
140.72
54.24
62.72%
STKL
SunOpta
6.50
1.36
26.46%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.