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Julius Baer Group (JBAXY)
OTHER OTC:JBAXY
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Julius Baer Group
(OTC:JBAXY)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
â–¼(-5.08% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow conversion and a technically weak setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings-call outlook with specific medium-term targets and a reasonable valuation supported by a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Record AUM & Net New Money
Sustained growth in AUM and positive net new money provide a durable fee base and recurring revenues. Large AUM scale supports product distribution, cross‑sell and pricing power; management’s 4–5% NNM target through 2028 creates a credible medium‑term growth runway.
Strong Capital & Liquidity
High CET1 and ample liquidity materially improve shock absorption and regulatory headroom. A strong capital buffer supports strategic investments, dividend continuity and potential buybacks subject to approval, lowering tail‑risk and enabling measured growth execution over the medium term.
Cost Discipline & Strategic Delivery
Concrete cost savings and ongoing efficiency programs enhance margin durability and operating leverage. Coupled with tech platform renewal and a Global Products & Solutions unit, these structural initiatives should reduce unit costs, scale product distribution and support margin recovery over the coming years.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Poor cash conversion and negative free cash flow undermine earnings quality and limit financial flexibility. Reliance on accounting profits without matching cash inflows constrains funding for investments, dividends or buybacks and raises sensitivity to market swings over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Material Net Credit Losses
Significant provisions reflect legacy asset quality issues and increase earnings volatility. Elevated credit losses pressure capital generation, can raise RWAs and funding costs, and may require sustained remediation and tighter underwriting that could restrain revenue or margin expansion.
Adviser Headcount & Execution Risk
Advisor attrition and aggressive hiring create execution risk for NNM and client coverage. Rebuilding RM capacity requires successful recruitment, onboarding and retention; failure would slow fee growth, impair client relationships and increase near‑term costs from front‑loaded hiring.
Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.70B
Dividend Yield4.07%
Average Volume (3M)5.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth3.42%
EPS Growth137.78%
CountryUS
Employees7,595
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding1,030,008,900
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume5,321
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio-90.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.82
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.45B
Julius Baer Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJulius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, Americas, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions include discretionary mandates, investment advisory mandates, securities execution and advisory, foreign exchange and precious metals, family office services, Lombard lending, structured products, global custody, real estate advisory and financing, and wealth planning. It also operates an open product and service platform. Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyJulius Baer primarily makes money by charging for managing and servicing client wealth and by earning income on banking activities linked to those client relationships. Key revenue streams include: (1) Net fee and commission income: recurring fees for discretionary mandates (where Julius Baer manages portfolios on behalf of clients) and advisory mandates (where the client decides with advice), as well as custody and account-related fees. This also includes transaction-based commissions from client trading in securities, funds, and other investment products and may include fees related to wealth planning and other advisory services. (2) Net interest income: earnings from lending and financing provided to wealth management clients (e.g., Lombard lending/loans secured by securities, mortgages, and other credit facilities) and from investing the bank’s balance-sheet liquidity; this is driven by loan volumes, client cash balances, and interest-rate conditions. (3) Net income from financial instruments at fair value: results from providing investment products (such as structured products) and related hedging/market-making activities, where applicable, which can contribute positively or negatively depending on market movements and client activity. (4) Other income: may include items such as service and processing income and other operating income. Overall earnings are influenced by assets under management (AUM) levels (driven by market performance, net new money, and FX), client activity/transaction volumes, interest-rate environment, credit demand and credit quality, and market volatility affecting product demand and valuation results. Specific significant partnerships or deal terms: null.
Julius Baer Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with record AUM, solid net new money, improved underlying revenue and meaningful cost discipline, alongside substantial capital rebuilding. Management completed important remediation (credit review, governance upgrades) and launched a clear strategic cycle with targeted growth, efficiency and technology programs. Key challenges include CHF 213 million of net credit losses, a sharp decline in net interest income, currency headwinds from a weaker USD and near-term cost/income pressure from front-loaded investments and RM headcount dynamics. Overall, the positives — notably the robust AUM growth, net new money, operating leverage and CET1 strengthening — outweigh the headwinds, while management has laid out milestones and targets to address the issues.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Assets Under Management
AUM reached a record high of CHF 521 billion (up 5% year-on-year). Monthly average AUM rose 7% to CHF 499 billion and total client assets increased 4% to CHF 614 billion.
Strong Net New Money
Net new money totaled CHF 14.4 billion for 2025 (≈2.9% annualized), roughly in line with guidance despite active derisking; H2 releveraging contributed +0.6 percentage points to the NNM pace.
Underlying Revenue and Profit Growth
On an underlying basis (excluding net credit losses), operating income rose 6% to ~CHF 4.073 billion and underlying pretax profit increased 17% to CHF 1.27 billion; underlying pretax margin improved to 25 bps.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Delivery
Costs rose only 1% to CHF 2.808 billion. The bank delivered CHF 130 million of gross cost savings (exceeding the CHF 110 million target) and limited cost-to-achieve to CHF 40 million. Expense margin improved by 4 bps and underlying cost/income improved ~3 percentage points to 67.6%.
Capital Strength and Balance Sheet Resilience
CET1 ratio strengthened to 17.4% (≈+320 bps pro forma since 2024); CET1 capital up 10% to CHF 3.9 billion while RWAs declined 10% to CHF 22.7 billion. Liquidity metrics strong: loan-to-deposit ratio 62% and LCR ~261%.
Diversified Revenue Offsets Interest Headwinds
Net commission & fee income increased 5% to CHF 2.314 billion. Net income from financial instruments rose 25% to CHF 1.608 billion, driven by a 51% increase in treasury swap income and a 28% rise in average swap volumes to CHF 27 billion, which helped offset a CHF 252 million decline in net interest income.
Progress on Strategic and Operational Initiatives
Completed credit review, upgraded governance and leadership, simplified organization, launched new strategy and a 3-year revenue/growth program, rolled out a new global finance platform, started IT infrastructure renewal in Switzerland, and established a Global Products & Solutions unit with visible traction (e.g., structured products volume growth).
Negative Updates
Significant Net Credit Losses from Credit Review
The comprehensive credit review drove an increase in gross loan loss allowances (total CHF 279 million) and resulted in net credit losses of CHF 213 million for 2025, negatively impacting operating income and IFRS net profit comparisons.
Sharp Decline in Net Interest Income
Net interest income fell materially to CHF 125 million, down CHF 252 million year-on-year, impacted by lower interest rates, mix shift toward low-rate CHF loans, weaker USD and a shrunken private debt portfolio (now almost fully wound down).
FX Headwinds and Market-Driven AUM Impact
The weakening U.S. dollar reduced AUM by ~CHF 38 billion. Reported deposits fell 3% to CHF 66.8 billion (though FX-neutral +3%) and reported loan book rose only 1% to CHF 42.1 billion (FX-neutral +5%), highlighting currency sensitivity.
Near-Term Cost Pressure from Front-Loaded Investments
The bank expects some front-loaded, non-steerable cost growth in 2026–27 as it books cost-to-achieve for the next efficiency program; benefits are backloaded to 2028, implying slight near-term upward pressure on the cost/income ratio before improvement toward the <67% target by 2028.
Adviser Headcount Dynamics and Attrition
Net number of relationship managers declined in 2025 (sale of Brazil and intensified performance management/attrition), requiring aggressive hiring plans (>150 gross RMs planned for 2026) to restore net RM growth — implying onboarding and execution risk.
Regulatory and Timing Uncertainties
Potential share buybacks remain subject to FINMA approval and the enforcement proceeding is still ongoing; timing and conditions for additional capital distributions are therefore uncertain and contingent on regulator timelines and deliverables.
Concentration and Risk-Density Considerations
More than a quarter of AUM is domiciled in Asia/China-related clients and risk density is 21% with guidance of 22%–24% for the new cycle — implying potential upward pressure on risk-weighted metrics as lending and business mix evolve.
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear quantitative guidance: AUM finished 2025 at CHF 521bn (monthly average CHF 499bn) with net new money CHF 14.4bn (c.2.9% annualized) and the target to gradually lift NNM to 4–5% p.a. by 2028 (2026 expected slightly above 2025); they plan to hire 150+ RMs in 2026 (120 hired in 2025). Cost guidance: underlying operating income ex-credit losses was ~CHF 4.07bn (+6%), operating expenses CHF 2.808bn, underlying cost/income improved to c.67.6% (expense margin 55bps) but may tick up near-term before falling to below 67% by 2028 as the bank delivers a further CHF 130m structural savings (2025 delivered CHF 130m gross; 2025 cost‑to‑achieve CHF 40m; incremental cost‑to‑achieve ~CHF 65m for the 2026–28 measures). Capital and risk targets: CET1 17.4% (CET1 capital CHF 3.9bn; RWAs CHF 22.7bn; risk density 21%) with a mid‑term RoCET1 target >30% (14% underpin) and risk density guidance 22–24%; leverage ratio 4.9% (regulatory floor 3%); liquidity LCR 261%, loan/deposit 62%, loan book CHF 42.1bn, deposits CHF 66.8bn. Other guidance/assumptions: dividend maintained at CHF 2.6/share, forward tax rate 18–20%, modelling assumes an 80bps gross margin and USD/CHF ~0.80 (management noted ~4% USD weakness vs that assumption); and interest‑driven income/treasury swap volumes (CHF 27bn swaps; interest‑driven income ~CHF 1.2bn) are expected to help offset NII pressure.Julius Baer Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and growth improved in 2025 (revenue +50.3% YoY; positive net and EBIT margins) and leverage improved versus 2024. However, cash-flow quality is a major concern (very low operating cash flow vs. net income and negative free cash flow in 2025), and multi-year results show volatility in both revenue and leverage.Income Statement
Revenue growth in 2025 accelerated sharply (+50.3% YoY), and profitability remained positive with a solid 12.9% net margin and ~15.8% EBIT margin. However, results have been uneven over time—revenue declined in 2023 (-24.6%), and margins show notable volatility versus the stronger 2021–2022 period (net margins ~22%–27%). Overall, earnings power is good but not consistently stable year-to-year.63
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~1.14x from ~3.02x in 2024, and equity remains sizable (~7.2B). Return on equity is reasonable at ~10.1% in 2025, though down from mid-teens levels in 2021–2022. The main drawback is that leverage has been volatile across years (near ~1.0x in 2023 but >2.0x in several other years), which suggests balance-sheet risk can swing with business conditions.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weak point: 2025 operating cash flow was very low (~95M) versus net income (~729M), and free cash flow was negative (-141M). Cash flows have also been inconsistent historically, including negative operating/free cash flow in 2020 and 2023, although 2022 and 2024 were strong with healthy positive free cash flow. Overall, the variability and the latest-year cash shortfall reduce confidence in the quality and durability of earnings.32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.66B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.30B | 4.00B |
| Gross Profit | 3.83B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 3.85B | 3.87B |
| EBITDA | 987.51M | 0.00 | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 729.37M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 107.61B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.22B | 13.78B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B |
| Total Debt | 8.22B | 20.60B | 6.05B | 14.05B | 16.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 100.37B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.24B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -140.87M | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 95.31M | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.00B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.88B | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 370.10M |
Julius Baer Group Technical Analysis
Negative
16.33
Price Trends
16.51
Negative
15.56
Negative
14.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Positive
26.61
Positive
2.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBAXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.99, below the 50-day MA of 16.51, and above the 200-day MA of 14.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JBAXY.
Julius Baer Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $78.93B | 14.74 | 12.66% | 1.71% | 4.22% | 51.01% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $39.58B | 13.05 | 58.14% | 1.26% | 5.76% | 39.77% | |
66 Neutral | $33.71B | 12.46 | 10.76% | 2.43% | 5.62% | 49.49% | |
65 Neutral | $138.69B | 39.87 | 36.17% | 3.02% | 33.12% | 19.86% | |
64 Neutral | $35.58B | 66.62 | 12.01% | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% | |
56 Neutral | $14.70B | 17.45 | 13.00% | 4.07% | 3.42% | 137.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
JBAXY
Julius Baer Group
14.28
0.55
4.03%
AMP
Ameriprise Financial
434.06
-52.25
-10.74%
BK
Bank of New York Mellon
114.90
33.07
40.42%
STT
State Street
120.95
33.03
37.57%
BX
Blackstone Group
113.47
-29.94
-20.88%
ARES
Ares Management
107.99
-34.93
-24.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.