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Julius Baer Group (JBAXY)
OTHER OTC:JBAXY
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Julius Baer Group
(OTC:JBAXY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(13.29% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/02/26
The score is driven by improving profitability and cash generation alongside constructive technical momentum, supported by reasonable valuation and a positive earnings-call outlook (AUM/NNM growth, cost and capital progress). The main constraint is financial-profile volatility and higher leverage, plus execution and earnings headwinds cited on the call (credit losses, weaker NII, FX and near-term cost pressure).
Positive Factors
AUM and Net New Money Growth
Record AUM (CHF 521bn) and sustained net new money provide a durable fee base and scale benefits for wealth-management margins. Higher AUM supports recurring net fee income, cross‑sell opportunities and pricing power, underpinning predictable revenue over the next 2–6 months.
Capital and Liquidity Strength
A CET1 ratio of 17.4% together with very high LCR (≈261%) and improved RWAs provides a strong capital and liquidity buffer. This durable financial strength reduces regulatory and funding risk, enabling strategic investments, RM hiring and absorbing near‑term credit volatility.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Delivery
Execution of structural cost savings (CHF130m delivered) and improved cost/income illustrate credible efficiency gains. Sustained savings and planned further programs enhance operating leverage, helping protect margins as revenue mix and investments evolve over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher Leverage and Balance-Sheet Volatility
A rapid rise in leverage to ~3.0x increases funding and market sensitivity, raising refinancing and regulatory risks. Elevated leverage can amplify earnings volatility and constrain capital returns or growth investments if market conditions or RWAs shift unfavorably in the coming months.
Material Net Credit Losses
Net credit losses of CHF213m and higher allowances from the credit review signal asset‑quality issues and provisioning variability. Continued charge volatility could depress earnings, consume capital buffers, and require ongoing risk management focus over the medium term.
Pressured Net Interest Income
A sharp NII decline to CHF125m reflects rate and mix shifts plus a wind‑down of private‑debt exposure. Lower, more rate‑sensitive interest income weakens a stable revenue pillar, increasing reliance on fee and trading income which is more cyclical and could heighten earnings variability.
Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.03B
Dividend Yield4.07%
Average Volume (3M)5.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth3.42%
EPS Growth137.78%
CountryUS
Employees7,595
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding1,030,008,900
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume5,321
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)3.08
P/FCF Ratio6.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda160.77
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.46B
Julius Baer Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJulius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, Americas, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions include discretionary mandates, investment advisory mandates, securities execution and advisory, foreign exchange and precious metals, family office services, Lombard lending, structured products, global custody, real estate advisory and financing, and wealth planning. It also operates an open product and service platform. Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyJulius Baer Group makes money primarily through its wealth management services, earning revenue from advisory fees, transaction fees, and asset management fees. The bank charges fees for managing clients' investment portfolios and providing financial advisory services. Additionally, Julius Baer earns interest income from lending services and investments. The group also benefits from trading operations and foreign exchange services, which contribute to its overall revenue. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions have expanded its market presence and client base, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities. Its business model relies significantly on maintaining strong client relationships and delivering tailored financial solutions to meet the diverse needs of its clientele.
Julius Baer Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with record AUM, solid net new money, improved underlying revenue and meaningful cost discipline, alongside substantial capital rebuilding. Management completed important remediation (credit review, governance upgrades) and launched a clear strategic cycle with targeted growth, efficiency and technology programs. Key challenges include CHF 213 million of net credit losses, a sharp decline in net interest income, currency headwinds from a weaker USD and near-term cost/income pressure from front-loaded investments and RM headcount dynamics. Overall, the positives — notably the robust AUM growth, net new money, operating leverage and CET1 strengthening — outweigh the headwinds, while management has laid out milestones and targets to address the issues.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Assets Under Management
AUM reached a record high of CHF 521 billion (up 5% year-on-year). Monthly average AUM rose 7% to CHF 499 billion and total client assets increased 4% to CHF 614 billion.
Strong Net New Money
Net new money totaled CHF 14.4 billion for 2025 (≈2.9% annualized), roughly in line with guidance despite active derisking; H2 releveraging contributed +0.6 percentage points to the NNM pace.
Underlying Revenue and Profit Growth
On an underlying basis (excluding net credit losses), operating income rose 6% to ~CHF 4.073 billion and underlying pretax profit increased 17% to CHF 1.27 billion; underlying pretax margin improved to 25 bps.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Delivery
Costs rose only 1% to CHF 2.808 billion. The bank delivered CHF 130 million of gross cost savings (exceeding the CHF 110 million target) and limited cost-to-achieve to CHF 40 million. Expense margin improved by 4 bps and underlying cost/income improved ~3 percentage points to 67.6%.
Capital Strength and Balance Sheet Resilience
CET1 ratio strengthened to 17.4% (≈+320 bps pro forma since 2024); CET1 capital up 10% to CHF 3.9 billion while RWAs declined 10% to CHF 22.7 billion. Liquidity metrics strong: loan-to-deposit ratio 62% and LCR ~261%.
Diversified Revenue Offsets Interest Headwinds
Net commission & fee income increased 5% to CHF 2.314 billion. Net income from financial instruments rose 25% to CHF 1.608 billion, driven by a 51% increase in treasury swap income and a 28% rise in average swap volumes to CHF 27 billion, which helped offset a CHF 252 million decline in net interest income.
Progress on Strategic and Operational Initiatives
Completed credit review, upgraded governance and leadership, simplified organization, launched new strategy and a 3-year revenue/growth program, rolled out a new global finance platform, started IT infrastructure renewal in Switzerland, and established a Global Products & Solutions unit with visible traction (e.g., structured products volume growth).
Negative Updates
Significant Net Credit Losses from Credit Review
The comprehensive credit review drove an increase in gross loan loss allowances (total CHF 279 million) and resulted in net credit losses of CHF 213 million for 2025, negatively impacting operating income and IFRS net profit comparisons.
Sharp Decline in Net Interest Income
Net interest income fell materially to CHF 125 million, down CHF 252 million year-on-year, impacted by lower interest rates, mix shift toward low-rate CHF loans, weaker USD and a shrunken private debt portfolio (now almost fully wound down).
FX Headwinds and Market-Driven AUM Impact
The weakening U.S. dollar reduced AUM by ~CHF 38 billion. Reported deposits fell 3% to CHF 66.8 billion (though FX-neutral +3%) and reported loan book rose only 1% to CHF 42.1 billion (FX-neutral +5%), highlighting currency sensitivity.
Near-Term Cost Pressure from Front-Loaded Investments
The bank expects some front-loaded, non-steerable cost growth in 2026–27 as it books cost-to-achieve for the next efficiency program; benefits are backloaded to 2028, implying slight near-term upward pressure on the cost/income ratio before improvement toward the <67% target by 2028.
Adviser Headcount Dynamics and Attrition
Net number of relationship managers declined in 2025 (sale of Brazil and intensified performance management/attrition), requiring aggressive hiring plans (>150 gross RMs planned for 2026) to restore net RM growth — implying onboarding and execution risk.
Regulatory and Timing Uncertainties
Potential share buybacks remain subject to FINMA approval and the enforcement proceeding is still ongoing; timing and conditions for additional capital distributions are therefore uncertain and contingent on regulator timelines and deliverables.
Concentration and Risk-Density Considerations
More than a quarter of AUM is domiciled in Asia/China-related clients and risk density is 21% with guidance of 22%–24% for the new cycle — implying potential upward pressure on risk-weighted metrics as lending and business mix evolve.
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear quantitative guidance: AUM finished 2025 at CHF 521bn (monthly average CHF 499bn) with net new money CHF 14.4bn (c.2.9% annualized) and the target to gradually lift NNM to 4–5% p.a. by 2028 (2026 expected slightly above 2025); they plan to hire 150+ RMs in 2026 (120 hired in 2025). Cost guidance: underlying operating income ex-credit losses was ~CHF 4.07bn (+6%), operating expenses CHF 2.808bn, underlying cost/income improved to c.67.6% (expense margin 55bps) but may tick up near-term before falling to below 67% by 2028 as the bank delivers a further CHF 130m structural savings (2025 delivered CHF 130m gross; 2025 cost‑to‑achieve CHF 40m; incremental cost‑to‑achieve ~CHF 65m for the 2026–28 measures). Capital and risk targets: CET1 17.4% (CET1 capital CHF 3.9bn; RWAs CHF 22.7bn; risk density 21%) with a mid‑term RoCET1 target >30% (14% underpin) and risk density guidance 22–24%; leverage ratio 4.9% (regulatory floor 3%); liquidity LCR 261%, loan/deposit 62%, loan book CHF 42.1bn, deposits CHF 66.8bn. Other guidance/assumptions: dividend maintained at CHF 2.6/share, forward tax rate 18–20%, modelling assumes an 80bps gross margin and USD/CHF ~0.80 (management noted ~4% USD weakness vs that assumption); and interest‑driven income/treasury swap volumes (CHF 27bn swaps; interest‑driven income ~CHF 1.2bn) are expected to help offset NII pressure.Julius Baer Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are strong in 2024 with sharp margin expansion and net income more than doubling, and cash generation rebounded with solid free-cash-flow coverage of earnings. Offsetting this, results are uneven across years (2023 negative operating/FCF) and leverage stepped up materially (debt-to-equity ~3.0x), reducing confidence in stability.Income Statement
Revenue growth is strong in 2024 (+23.5%) after a dip in 2023 (-0.3%). Profitability improved materially, with net profit margin rising to ~26% in 2024 from ~14% in 2023, and net income more than doubling ($1.02B vs. $0.45B). However, operating-profitability indicators are inconsistent across years (with some reported operating margin figures turning negative despite positive earnings), which reduces confidence in underlying operating trend quality.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The firm maintains a sizable equity base (~$6.83B in 2024) and produced solid shareholder returns in 2024 (return on equity ~15%). The main concern is leverage volatility: debt-to-equity increased sharply to ~3.02x in 2024 (from ~0.98x in 2023), indicating a meaningfully more levered balance sheet and higher sensitivity to market and funding conditions.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation rebounded strongly in 2024, with operating cash flow at $2.13B and free cash flow at $1.87B, and free cash flow covering a large share of earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.88x). That said, cash-flow performance has been volatile: 2023 showed negative operating and free cash flow, and 2024 free cash flow declined ~20% year over year, highlighting variability in cash conversion.62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.76B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.30B | 4.00B | 3.58B |
| Gross Profit | 3.73B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 3.85B | 3.87B | 3.58B |
| EBITDA | 69.30M | 0.00 | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 865.40M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B | 698.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 104.72B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B | 109.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.20B | 13.78B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B | 23.06B |
| Total Debt | 3.92B | 20.60B | 6.05B | 14.05B | 16.87B | 14.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 97.98B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B | 102.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.74B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B | 6.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.15B | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M | -1.83B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.39B | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M | -1.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.02B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M | 743.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -129.20M | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 370.10M | 5.25B |
Julius Baer Group Technical Analysis
Positive
16.33
Price Trends
16.52
Positive
15.24
Positive
14.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
53.93
Neutral
45.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBAXY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.92, below the 50-day MA of 16.52, and above the 200-day MA of 14.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JBAXY.
Julius Baer Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $80.21B | 15.75 | 12.96% | 1.71% | 4.22% | 51.01% | |
70 Outperform | $17.03B | 17.03 | 13.00% | 4.07% | 3.42% | 137.78% | |
70 Outperform | $143.04B | 30.08 | 35.78% | 3.02% | 33.12% | 19.86% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $42.51B | 12.85 | 60.51% | 1.26% | 5.76% | 39.77% | |
66 Neutral | $35.46B | 13.53 | 11.07% | 2.43% | 5.62% | 49.49% | |
64 Neutral | $38.30B | 59.76 | ― | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% |
* Financial Sector Average
JBAXY
Julius Baer Group
17.00
3.97
30.41%
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486.98
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BK
Bank of New York Mellon
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39.69%
BX
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117.95
-34.26
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ARES
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118.08
-44.55
-27.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.