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Intrum AB (ITJTY)
OTHER OTC:ITJTY
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Intrum AB
(OTC:ITJTY)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-21.10% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent net losses and high leverage with declining equity). Offsetting this are constructive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a more credible, execution-backed deleveraging/cost-out plan from the earnings call, though impairments, FX headwinds, and refinancing/execution risks keep the overall assessment below average.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (including ~SEK 4.3bn in 2025) provides durable funding to service debt, fund limited replacement investments, and support deleveraging plans. Reliable cash conversion cushions earnings volatility and underpins balance-sheet repair over months to years.
Margin & cost improvements
Sustained cost reductions (~SEK 1.6bn annualized) combined with a 31% Q4 servicing margin indicate structural productivity gains and scalable margin levers. If replicated beyond pockets like Norway, these efficiency improvements materially raise servicing EBIT and free cash flow durability over the 2–6 month horizon and toward 2030 targets.
High investing returns & ERC
Strong realized investing IRRs (18–20%) and a SEK 46bn expected recoverable cash (ERC) demonstrate collection expertise and attractive portfolio economics. A large ERC plus visible pipeline supports future cash generation and shows durable competitive advantage in sourcing and collecting NPLs when funding conditions allow scaled deployment.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Very high leverage (debt/equity ~4.1x) and materially declining equity constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and amplify the impact of impairments or adverse FX. Elevated leverage limits the firm's ability to scale investing or absorb shocks without substantive deleveraging progress.
Shrinking revenue & net losses
Persistent top-line contraction and multi-year net losses weaken retained earnings and slow equity rebuild, making deleveraging harder. Despite solid operating margins, bottom-line losses reflect impairments, FX and investing variability, reducing sustainable internal capital generation for growth or debt reduction.
Smaller investment book & constrained investing
A ~40% reduction in the investment book and deliberate near-term cutbacks to investing to prioritize deleveraging reduce recurring investing income and limit the company's ability to exploit attractive IRRs. This trade-off preserves balance sheet but narrows revenue diversity and long-term upside until funding costs permit scale.
Intrum AB (ITJTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$574.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-2.97%
EPS Growth98.46%
CountryUS
Employees9,664
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.77
Shares Outstanding136,245,470
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
P/FCF Ratio1.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap81.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.15
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Intrum AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIntrum AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides credit management and financial services in Europe and internationally. The company offers credit optimization services, including credit monitoring, credit decision, factoring, and credit information services; and debt collection comprising surveillance and purchase services. It also provides payment services, such as reminder, payment guarantee, and VAT services; e-commerce services comprising credit management, payment solutions, and collection services; accounts receivables services that include invoicing, payment booking, monitoring of due dates, reminder, and collection services; and financing and portfolio investment services. Intrum AB (publ) was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntrum AB generates revenue primarily through its debt collection services, which include both contingency collection and debt purchase. In contingency collection, the company earns fees based on the amounts collected on behalf of clients. In debt purchase, Intrum acquires non-performing loans and collects on them directly, generating income from the recovery of these debts. Additionally, the company provides credit management solutions, which include assessments and consulting services, further contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and businesses enhance its service offerings and broaden its client base, ensuring a steady flow of income from various sectors.
Intrum AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a balanced mix of tangible progress and credible strategic direction alongside near-term headwinds. Positive operational traction includes improved leverage versus a year ago, substantial cost reduction (SEK ~1.6bn annualized), elevated servicing margins (31% Q4), strong investing IRRs (18–20% on recent deals), and concrete 2030 targets (3x servicing leverage, 30–35% servicing EBIT margin, SEK 10–11bn cost base). Countering this are notable one-time impairments (goodwill ~SEK 2.9bn), FX-driven revenue declines (income down ~7% YoY; investing income down 11% YoY; Q4 investing -17% YoY), a smaller investment book and near-term constrained investing, and remaining refinancing/maturity and execution risks. Overall, the company is executing a credible plan to de-risk and transform the business, with clear milestones and evidence of operational improvements, though success hinges on execution, FX/funding-cost trends, and managing near-term impairments and maturities.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Leverage Improvement and Deleveraging Actions
Leverage ratio improved year-on-year from 5.3x to 4.8x; company pursuing deleveraging and balance-sheet strengthening including announced January '26 sale of remaining Brocc JV stake (expected positive impact on leverage) and plan to reduce net debt by SEK 10–15 billion toward 2030 (with ~SEK 4 billion from 2027 maturities anticipated).
Servicing Margin Strength and Organic Growth
Servicing margin reached 31% in Q4 standalone; external servicing income showed FX-neutral growth for two consecutive quarters; underlying organic servicing growth ~1% and servicing EBIT (adjusted) up ~31% year-on-year (FY2025 vs FY2024).
Substantial Cost Reductions
Underlying costs down ~SEK 1.6 billion on a 12-month basis; full-year underlying costs were SEK 12.3 billion in 2025 with a guidance to reduce underlying costs by 5% in 2026 and reach SEK 10–11 billion by 2030; FTEs reduced to ~8,500.
Strong Investing Returns on New Deployments
Q4 new investments closed SEK 436 million with IRR ~18%; full-year 2025 investments SEK 1.2 billion with IRR ~20%; collection index and investing performance remain strong (performance vs original forecast at ~109%; historical index ~107% over 20 years).
High Expected Recoverable Cash (ERC) and Pipeline
ERC at end-2025 reported at SEK 46 billion; servicing pipeline entering 2026 at SEK 2 billion, supporting near-term business opportunities.
Clear 2030 Strategic Targets
New financial targets: servicing leverage target of 3x (net debt excluding 80% LTV on investing book), servicing EBIT margin target of 30–35% by 2030, and cost target SEK 10–11 billion by 2030 — giving a concrete roadmap for execution and investor visibility.
Demonstrated Operational Productivity Gains (Norway Case)
Norway example: production cost to collect down 36%, collections per FTE up 46%, and adjusted EBIT margin increased nearly 50% — shows replicable levers (standardization, process optimization, capacity/performance management) for group uplift.
Disciplined Investing and Partnership Strategy
Near-term disciplined investing (priority on returns and deleveraging), continued expansion of capital partnerships (e.g., Cerberus model), and evaluation of SDR access during 2026 to scale investing when funding costs permit.
Negative Updates
Goodwill and Tax Asset Write-Downs
Goodwill impairment recorded at SEK 2.9 billion (preannounced SEK 3.1 billion); additional tax asset write-downs were taken as part of the year-end review, creating one-time P&L/headline impacts.
Revenue and Investing Income Declines (FX-Driven)
Reported income down ~7% year-on-year (largely FX-driven); servicing income down ~3% YoY (1% organic growth underlying), and investing income down ~11% YoY (FY25 vs FY24) and down ~17% Q4 vs Q4 2024, reflecting a smaller investment book and FX effects.
Portfolio Size Shrinkage and Lower Near-Term Investments
Investment book has declined ~40% over recent years (notably due to the 2024 back-book sale); guidance is for portfolio investments slightly lower in 2026 than 2025 as cash used to delever, meaning investing volumes will be constrained near-term.
Leverage Still Elevated and Quarter Volatility
Leverage remains above long-term target at 4.8x and was marginally higher quarter-on-quarter due to servicing cash-flow improvement not fully offsetting investing cash-flow decline; refinancing and maturity risk exists with ~SEK 45 billion nominal debt and initial maturities in 2027.
Material FX Headwinds
FX impacted reported income materially (Swedish krona strengthened ~5% vs EUR), and the company expects servicing income to be largely flat in 2026 absent stronger organic growth due to these FX headwinds.
Low Automation Penetration
Automation levels are under 10% across the group (cited as <10%), indicating significant operational modernization required and near-term implementation/integration effort and costs.
Market and Geographic Complexity
Certain markets (Spain, Italy, Greece, U.K.) have structural differences requiring tailored approaches; improvements in high-performing markets (e.g., Norway) may not directly replicate across all geographies, slowing group-wide uplift.
One-time and Execution Risks
Significant one-offs (impairments) and the need to execute on strategic roadmap (cost cuts, technology adoption, refinancing) introduce execution risk; success depends on achieving funding-cost reductions to ramp investing volumes later in the plan.
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized a clear near‑term focus on deleveraging and derisking with three financial targets: reach ~3x net leverage (measured as net debt after excluding 80% LTV of the investing book), cut underlying costs (SEK 12.3bn in 2025) by ~5% in 2026 and to SEK 10–11bn by 2030, and lift servicing EBIT margin to 30–35% by 2030. Management expects to reduce nominal debt (~SEK 45bn today) by SEK 10–15bn to 2030 (about SEK 4bn of that from 2027 maturities), use cash to repay the EUR 370m second‑lien in 2027, and keep portfolio investment volumes limited in 2026 (replacement investments ~SEK 2.5–3bn). Near‑term operating guidance assumes servicing income largely flat in 2026 (FX headwind: SEK krona ≈ +5% vs EUR), while continuing to extract value from investing (collection index >100%, now ~109% vs forecast); Q4 highlights included a 31% servicing margin (quarter), SEK 436m of Q4 investments at 18% IRR (SEK 1.2bn for 2025 at 20% IRR), ERC SEK 46bn, a SEK 2.9bn goodwill write‑down, pipeline SEK 2bn entering 2026, FTEs ~8,500 (≈6,000 in operations), automation <10%, and the expectation that initial margin gains will come mainly from cost‑outs (SEK ~1.6bn annual cost reduction observed) with scalable revenue upside from cross‑selling and new segments (management cites ~SEK 0.5bn–2.0bn+ upside by 2030 by penetrating white‑space and adjacent services).Intrum AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Weak overall fundamentals: shrinking revenue, net losses across 2022–2025, and very high leverage with declining equity outweigh the support from consistently positive free cash flow and comparatively solid operating margins.Income Statement
Revenue has been shrinking recently (down ~4.3% in 2025 after ~0.1% decline in 2024), and the company has reported net losses for most of the last four years (2022–2025), with a negative net margin in 2025. Offsetting that, operating profitability looks comparatively stronger: 2025 operating profit and EBITDA margins remain healthy versus many financial services peers, and operating profit improved versus 2023. Overall, strong operating earnings are being undermined by persistent bottom-line losses and weakening top-line momentum.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key constraint: debt is very high relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~4.1x in 2025), and equity has trended down materially since 2020, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Returns to shareholders are also negative in recent years due to net losses (negative return on equity in 2022–2025). While total assets remain sizable, the combination of high leverage and declining equity profile elevates risk, particularly if earnings remain volatile.29
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive each year shown, including 2025 (~4.3B free cash flow). However, cash flow has softened from 2021 highs and free cash flow growth has been negative for several years. A positive factor is that free cash flow has generally tracked reported earnings closely in the data provided, suggesting cash conversion is not the primary issue—rather, durability and trajectory of cash flows are.57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.03B | 18.03B | 19.85B | 19.13B | 17.79B |
| Gross Profit | 10.66B | 7.82B | 10.19B | 10.12B | 8.23B |
| EBITDA | 5.13B | 9.46B | 6.04B | 2.48B | 7.93B |
| Net Income | -1.43B | -3.70B | -188.00M | -4.47B | 3.13B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 65.47B | 77.54B | 90.21B | 88.71B | 88.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.57B | 2.39B | 3.62B | 3.43B | 4.55B |
| Total Debt | 44.42B | 51.41B | 60.48B | 57.23B | 53.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.69B | 62.07B | 71.28B | 67.51B | 64.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.85B | 13.39B | 16.75B | 18.54B | 21.70B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.27B | 3.83B | 4.96B | 4.63B | 9.71B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.30B | 4.42B | 5.31B | 4.99B | 10.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.47B | 9.20B | -2.56B | -1.63B | -8.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.31B | -15.29B | -2.26B | -4.88B | 401.00M |
Intrum AB Technical Analysis
Negative
5.07
Price Trends
4.75
Negative
4.67
Negative
4.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
31.25
Neutral
0.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITJTY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.15, above the 50-day MA of 4.75, and above the 200-day MA of 4.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ITJTY.
Intrum AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $325.75M | 1.89 | 12.53% | 10.37% | 10.48% | -30.67% | |
72 Outperform | $213.49M | 0.91 | 23.70% | 8.74% | 46.93% | 52.53% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
51 Neutral | $422.15M | -1.33 | -31.97% | ― | 13.89% | -899.50% | |
49 Neutral | $574.78M | -3.77 | -0.01% | ― | -2.97% | 98.46% | |
45 Neutral | $1.20B | -2.71 | -79.90% | ― | 510.69% | -145.92% |
* Financial Sector Average
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XYF
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.