Moncler S.p.A. (MONC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €12.95B
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 781.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 4.18%
• EPS Growth: 4.35%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 7,354
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 274,805,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 896,965
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 781,623
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €60.36
• Price Target Upside: 26.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: €52.00 ▲(8.70%Upside)

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability, growth potential, and cash flow generation, which significantly contributes to its overall score. However, technical analysis indicates the stock currently faces bearish momentum, with all major indicators pointing towards an oversold condition. Valuation metrics show fair value, providing some stability. The absence of specific earnings call data or corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Brand Desirability

Moncler enjoys high brand desirability, especially among Asian customers, and has high-single-digit growth potential.

Financial Performance

Moncler materially beat 4Q24 expectations and will likely enjoy a strong peak winter trading season.

Market Performance

Moncler delivered +8% organic growth versus consensus expectations of -0.4% and significantly above an estimated industry organic growth rate of +1.4%.

Negative Factors

Event Strategy

Moncler will not organize a Genius event this year, and is still taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to Stone Island.

Valuation

The stock's current premium valuation leaves limited upside if sales growth assumptions and stable margins prove to be about right.

Wholesale Rationalisation

Further wholesale rationalisation is expected to hold back growth in Stone Island.

Moncler S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moncler S.p.A. (MONC) is a globally recognized luxury fashion brand, renowned for its high-quality outerwear and stylish apparel. Founded in 1952 in Monestier-de-Clermont, France, the company is currently headquartered in Milan, Italy. Moncler specializes in producing premium down jackets and has expanded its offerings to include a wide range of clothing, accessories, and footwear. The brand is synonymous with innovation and combines traditional craftsmanship with cutting-edge technology to deliver products that cater to both functionality and fashion.

How the Company Makes Money

Moncler S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its luxury apparel and accessories. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its retail stores, online e-commerce platform, and wholesale distribution to select department stores and specialty retailers worldwide. Moncler also benefits from a strong brand image and loyal customer base, which allows it to maintain premium pricing for its products. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with designers and other brands further enhance its market presence and contribute to its revenue. Additionally, Moncler occasionally engages in limited edition releases and exclusive collections, which drive consumer interest and sales.

Moncler S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moncler S.p.A. presents an impressive financial profile with robust growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The income statement shows strong profitability with a net profit margin of 20.6% and a revenue growth rate of 4.2%. The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 and a high equity ratio of 78.9%. The cash flow is strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income and a free cash flow growth rate of 12.7%.

Income Statement

Moncler S.p.A. demonstrates robust profitability with a consistent increase in revenue, evident from a revenue growth rate of approximately 4.2% in the latest year. The gross profit margin is strong at 78% for the latest annual period, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin stands at 20.6%, indicating solid bottom-line performance. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency and the company's ability to generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Overall, the income statement portrays a company with strong profitability and growth potential.

Balance Sheet

Moncler S.p.A. maintains a conservative leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating low reliance on debt financing. The company reports a high equity ratio of 78.9%, demonstrating a strong capital structure with significant equity backing its total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 17.8%, reflecting efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The balance sheet showcases financial stability and a solid foundation for growth, although there is a slight decline in total assets year-over-year.

Cash Flow

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong cash flow generation, with operating cash flow exceeding net income, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow shows a growth rate of 12.7%, highlighting the company's ability to generate excess cash after capital expenditures. Both the operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio are favorable, suggesting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a robust cash position, enabling potential reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.11B	2.98B	2.60B	2.05B	1.44B
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.30B	1.76B	1.37B	913.93M
EBITDA	1.25B	1.19B	1.04B	827.47M	569.52M
Net Income	639.60M	611.93M	606.70M	393.53M	300.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.50B	4.99B	4.64B	4.27B	2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.26B	998.80M	882.25M	932.72M	923.50M
Total Debt	957.31M	848.59M	912.78M	913.92M	713.27M
Total Liabilities	1.92B	1.78B	1.74B	1.77B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	3.59B	3.21B	2.90B	2.50B	1.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	832.37M	738.44M	492.72M	733.49M	313.89M
Operating Cash Flow	1.02B	914.87M	662.58M	865.31M	406.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-267.43M	-174.07M	-167.10M	-621.41M	-90.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-535.17M	-596.63M	-391.25M	-345.18M	-151.54M

Moncler S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 47.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:MONC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 47.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.32, below the 50-day MA of 53.29, and below the 200-day MA of 53.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:MONC.

Moncler S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ICOS	71 Outperform	€1.21B	25.11		1.35%	7.76%	-7.28%
BC	67 Neutral	€6.99B	58.53	25.65%	0.81%	12.21%	4.24%
MONC	64 Neutral	€12.95B	20.23	18.81%	2.40%	4.18%	4.35%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.72B	10.85	-7.48%	3.15%	1.66%	-24.52%
AEF	56 Neutral	€50.20M	3.34	18.24%	―	―	―
SFER	45 Neutral	€827.06M	112.46	-10.16%	2.04%	-10.48%	-360.89%
GEO	44 Neutral	€110.77M	―	-38.29%	―	-7.76%	-366.10%