Moncler S.p.A. (MONC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €13.65B
• Dividend Yield: 2.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 772.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 4.18%
• EPS Growth: 4.35%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 7,354
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 274,805,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 644,894
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 772,127
• PEG Ratio: -25.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €56.89
• Price Target Upside: 12.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: €52.00 ▲(3.17%Upside)

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability, growth potential, and cash flow generation, which significantly contributes to its overall score. However, technical analysis indicates the stock currently faces bearish momentum, with all major indicators pointing towards an oversold condition. Valuation metrics show fair value, providing some stability. The absence of specific earnings call data or corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Brand Desirability

Moncler enjoys high brand desirability, especially among Asian customers, and has high-single-digit growth potential.

Financial Performance

Moncler delivered +8% organic growth versus consensus expectations of -0.4% and significantly above an estimated industry organic growth rate of +1.4%.

Management

The Moncler brand's strong desirability in Asia Pacific and the high quality of its management remain key reasons for long-term investors to stick to the stock.

Negative Factors

Industry Challenges

The challenge across the industry remains weak traffic and Moncler is not immune.

Retail Sales

Retail sales are expected to decline by 4% in the upcoming quarter.

Wholesale Rationalisation

Further wholesale rationalisation is expected to hold back growth in Stone Island.

Moncler S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moncler S.p.A. is an Italian luxury fashion company renowned for its high-end outerwear and apparel. Established in 1952, Moncler has built a strong reputation for its premium down jackets, which combine style and functionality. The company operates in the luxury goods sector and offers a wide range of products including clothing, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and children. Moncler's innovative designs and commitment to quality have made it a leading name in the world of luxury fashion.

How the Company Makes Money

Moncler S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its luxury apparel and accessories. The company's primary revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its own retail stores and e-commerce platform, as well as wholesale distribution to high-end department stores and specialty boutiques worldwide. Moncler has strategically expanded its global retail network and enhanced its digital presence to reach a wider audience. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and brand collaborations to maintain its luxury status and drive consumer demand. Moncler's earnings are also influenced by seasonal collections and limited-edition releases that capitalize on the brand's exclusivity and desirability.

Moncler S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moncler S.p.A. presents an impressive financial profile with strong growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The company efficiently manages its operations, maintains a solid balance sheet, and generates significant free cash flow, signaling a healthy financial condition. These strengths position Moncler well for continued growth and value creation in the Luxury Apparel industry. However, vigilance is necessary to maintain asset growth and manage any potential economic challenges.

Income Statement

Moncler S.p.A. demonstrates robust profitability with a consistent increase in revenue, evident from a revenue growth rate of approximately 4.2% in the latest year. The gross profit margin is strong at 78% for the latest annual period, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin stands at 20.6%, indicating solid bottom-line performance. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency and the company's ability to generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Overall, the income statement portrays a company with strong profitability and growth potential.

Balance Sheet

Moncler S.p.A. maintains a conservative leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating low reliance on debt financing. The company reports a high equity ratio of 78.9%, demonstrating a strong capital structure with significant equity backing its total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 17.8%, reflecting efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The balance sheet showcases financial stability and a solid foundation for growth, although there is a slight decline in total assets year-over-year.

Cash Flow

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong cash flow generation, with operating cash flow exceeding net income, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow shows a growth rate of 12.7%, highlighting the company's ability to generate excess cash after capital expenditures. Both the operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio are favorable, suggesting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a robust cash position, enabling potential reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.11B	2.98B	2.60B	2.05B	1.44B
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.30B	1.76B	1.37B	913.93M
EBITDA	1.25B	1.19B	1.04B	827.47M	569.52M
Net Income	639.60M	611.93M	606.70M	393.53M	300.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.50B	4.99B	4.64B	4.27B	2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.26B	998.80M	882.25M	932.72M	923.50M
Total Debt	957.31M	848.59M	912.78M	913.92M	713.27M
Total Liabilities	1.92B	1.78B	1.74B	1.77B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	3.59B	3.21B	2.90B	2.50B	1.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	832.37M	738.44M	492.72M	733.49M	313.89M
Operating Cash Flow	1.02B	914.87M	662.58M	865.31M	406.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-267.43M	-174.07M	-167.10M	-621.41M	-90.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-535.17M	-596.63M	-391.25M	-345.18M	-151.54M

Moncler S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:MONC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.00, below the 50-day MA of 52.50, and below the 200-day MA of 53.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:MONC.

Moncler S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BC	71 Outperform	€7.15B	59.81	25.65%	0.90%	12.21%	4.24%
ICOS	68 Neutral	€1.16B	23.96		1.63%	7.76%	-7.28%
Sector *	67 Neutral	€8.45B	14.89	8.46%	3.25%	4.05%	-25.38%
MONC	64 Neutral	€13.65B	21.10	18.81%	2.61%	4.18%	4.35%
GEO	53 Neutral	€121.39M	―	-38.29%	―	-7.76%	-366.10%
AEF	51 Neutral	€49.30M	3.28	18.24%	―	―	―
SFER	45 Neutral	€841.64M	112.46	-10.16%	1.97%	-10.48%	-360.89%