Moncler S.p.A. (MONC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €12.71B
• Dividend Yield: 2.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 870.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 0.87%
• EPS Growth: -5.61%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 7,354
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 274,805,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 942,885
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 870,978
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €55.06
• Price Target Upside: 19.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: €52.00 ▲(13.12% Upside)

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability, growth potential, and cash flow generation, which significantly contributes to its overall score. However, technical analysis indicates the stock currently faces bearish momentum, with all major indicators pointing towards an oversold condition. Valuation metrics show fair value, providing some stability. The absence of specific earnings call data or corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Brand Desirability

Moncler enjoys high brand desirability, especially among Asian customers, and has high-single-digit growth potential.

Earnings

Moncler comfortably beat Q4 consensus, with +8% growth at constant rates vs -1% consensus and -3% in Q3.

Market Performance

Moncler has outperformed the broader peer group by approximately 5%.

Negative Factors

Industry Challenges

The challenge across the industry remains weak traffic and Moncler is not immune.

Retail Sales

Retail sales are expected to decline by 4% in the upcoming quarter.

Wholesale Rationalisation

Further wholesale rationalisation is expected to hold back growth in Stone Island.

Moncler S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moncler S.p.A. is an Italian luxury fashion brand renowned for its high-quality down jackets and outerwear. Founded in 1952, the company operates primarily in the luxury apparel sector, producing a range of products that includes clothing, accessories, and footwear. Moncler is celebrated for its innovative designs, combining style with functionality, and caters to a discerning clientele that values both luxury and performance.

How the Company Makes Money

Moncler generates revenue primarily through the sale of its premium outerwear and fashion apparel, with a significant focus on down jackets, which are a core product line. The company operates through a multi-channel distribution model, which includes direct-to-consumer sales through branded retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and wholesale partnerships with high-end department stores and boutiques. Key revenue streams include seasonal collections, collaborations with designers, and limited-edition releases that drive consumer interest and exclusivity. Additionally, Moncler's strategic marketing initiatives and brand positioning in the luxury market enhance its ability to command premium pricing, contributing to robust profit margins. Significant partnerships with luxury retailers and participation in global fashion events further bolster its visibility and sales potential.

Moncler S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moncler S.p.A. presents an impressive financial profile with strong growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The company efficiently manages its operations, maintains a solid balance sheet, and generates significant free cash flow, signaling a healthy financial condition. These strengths position Moncler well for continued growth and value creation in the Luxury Apparel industry. However, vigilance is necessary to maintain asset growth and manage any potential economic challenges.

Income Statement

Moncler S.p.A. demonstrates robust profitability with a consistent increase in revenue, evident from a revenue growth rate of approximately 4.2% in the latest year. The gross profit margin is strong at 78% for the latest annual period, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin stands at 20.6%, indicating solid bottom-line performance. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency and the company's ability to generate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Overall, the income statement portrays a company with strong profitability and growth potential.

Balance Sheet

Moncler S.p.A. maintains a conservative leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating low reliance on debt financing. The company reports a high equity ratio of 78.9%, demonstrating a strong capital structure with significant equity backing its total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 17.8%, reflecting efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The balance sheet showcases financial stability and a solid foundation for growth, although there is a slight decline in total assets year-over-year.

Cash Flow

Moncler S.p.A. exhibits strong cash flow generation, with operating cash flow exceeding net income, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow shows a growth rate of 12.7%, highlighting the company's ability to generate excess cash after capital expenditures. Both the operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio are favorable, suggesting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a robust cash position, enabling potential reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.11B	2.98B	2.60B	2.05B	1.44B
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.30B	1.76B	1.37B	913.93M
EBITDA	1.25B	1.19B	1.04B	827.47M	569.52M
Net Income	639.60M	611.93M	606.70M	393.53M	300.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.50B	4.99B	4.64B	4.27B	2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.26B	998.80M	882.25M	932.72M	923.50M
Total Debt	957.31M	848.59M	912.78M	913.92M	713.27M
Total Liabilities	1.92B	1.78B	1.74B	1.77B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	3.59B	3.21B	2.90B	2.50B	1.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	832.37M	738.44M	492.72M	733.49M	313.89M
Operating Cash Flow	1.02B	914.87M	662.58M	865.31M	406.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-267.43M	-174.07M	-167.10M	-621.41M	-90.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-535.17M	-596.63M	-391.25M	-345.18M	-151.54M

Moncler S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 45.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:MONC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.53, below the 50-day MA of 50.11, and below the 200-day MA of 53.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:MONC.

Moncler S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BC	71 Outperform	€6.58B	55.05	25.65%	0.97%	12.21%	4.24%
MONC	64 Neutral	€12.71B	20.76	18.89%	2.77%	0.87%	-5.61%
Sector *	64 Neutral	€7.21B	16.49	11.67%	3.56%	0.79%	-60.56%
ICOS	63 Neutral	€1.15B	24.18		1.71%	9.01%	5.14%
AEF	52 Neutral	€46.56M	3.37	17.31%	―	―	―
GEO	45 Neutral	€106.37M	―	-25.42%	―	-5.49%	-62.25%
SFER	45 Neutral	€762.11M	112.46	-20.18%	2.17%	-8.65%	-1512.63%