Lottomatica Group S.P.A. (LTMC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €5.75B
• Dividend Yield: 1.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 935.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 58.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 22.80%
• EPS Growth: 42.68%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 2,494
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 251,630,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,721,306
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 935,709
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 40.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €24.24
• Price Target Upside: 6.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: €26.00 ▲(13.74%Upside)

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. shows strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, indicating solid growth and operational efficiency. However, the high P/E ratio suggests the stock may be overvalued. Strong cash flows and improving equity returns are positive, but high leverage remains a risk if not managed carefully.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Lottomatica's strong Q1 results represented a small beat and operational momentum gives increased confidence in the FY25 guidance.

Market Share

Potential market share gains are anticipated from the new online licensing scheme.

Share Buyback

A share buyback program of EUR500m is expected to potentially reduce the share count by approximately 10%.

Negative Factors

Online Competition

The new online licensing scheme is expected to halve the number of operators, allowing Lottomatica to capture market share from weaker players.

Stock Valuation

Despite strong share price performance, the stock remains cheap, trading at 12.9/10.5x 2025/26 P/E and 8.0/6.9x EV/EBITDA.

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through three segments: Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise. The Online segment provides a range of online games, such as sport betting, virtual betting, horse betting, casino games, bingo, poker, betting exchange, and skill games through the GoldBet.it, Better.it, Lottomatica.it, and Betflag.it websites. The Sports Franchise segment offers various retail offerings, including sports betting, virtual betting, and horserace betting under the GoldBet, Intralot, and Better brands. The Gaming Franchise segment engages in the management of gaming halls and concession activities for video lottery terminals and amusement with prize machines. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Rome, Italy. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Gamma Intermediate Sarl.

How the Company Makes Money

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. generates revenue through a diversified portfolio of products and services in the gaming sector. The company earns significant income from its lottery operations, which include both traditional draw-based games and instant lotteries. Additionally, Lottomatica makes money from sports betting services, leveraging both physical betting shops and online platforms to reach a broad customer base. Digital gaming, including online casino games and poker, also constitutes an important revenue stream. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with technology providers and regulatory authorities, ensuring compliance and operational efficiency. By continuously innovating and expanding its offerings, Lottomatica maintains a strong competitive position in the gaming market.

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. demonstrates impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by efficient operations. While leverage is high, improving returns on equity and strong cash flows help mitigate potential risks. The company's financial health is robust, though careful management of debt levels is advised to sustain growth.

Income Statement

Strong revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate. Gross profit margin remains healthy, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improvements reflect enhanced profitability, though there's room for further optimization. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed prudently. However, return on equity is improving, indicating better returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio shows a relatively low proportion of equity financing, suggesting a reliance on debt.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has grown, supporting the company's ability to fund operations. Free cash flow is increasing, enhancing financial flexibility. However, high free cash flow to net income ratio suggests strong cash generation relative to reported earnings, a positive indicator of cash health.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.00B	1.65B	1.41B	815.41M	388.76M
Gross Profit	655.50M	669.26M	516.32M	644.36M	325.42M
EBITDA	630.73M	545.89M	406.73M	175.82M	95.81M
Net Income	98.60M	68.30M	72.12M	-57.56M	-49.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.44B	3.28B	2.76B	2.16B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.55M	296.47M	237.00M	153.62M	153.82M
Total Debt	2.15B	2.00B	1.86B	1.52B	660.32M
Total Liabilities	2.87B	2.74B	2.65B	2.15B	934.57M
Stockholders Equity	517.97M	498.37M	51.39M	-24.42M	129.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	460.64M	284.30M	320.95M	80.59M	116.48M
Operating Cash Flow	524.34M	407.53M	412.01M	130.38M	157.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-341.35M	-640.88M	-533.28M	-794.68M	-351.87M
Financing Cash Flow	-313.52M	293.19M	231.10M	643.50M	340.62M

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:LTMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.03, above the 50-day MA of 22.06, and above the 200-day MA of 15.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:LTMC.

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LTMC	70 Outperform	€5.75B	58.35		1.31%	22.80%	42.68%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.72B	10.85	-7.48%	3.11%	1.66%	-24.52%
0ONR		€544.14M	4.75	-1.45%	―	―	―
0QII		€12.95B	20.23	18.81%	2.34%	―	―

Lottomatica Group S.P.A. Corporate Events

Lottomatica Group Initiates EUR 500 Million Share Buyback Program

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. has initiated a share buyback program authorized by its shareholders and board of directors. The program aims to purchase up to 25 million shares, representing about 10% of the company’s share capital, with a maximum expenditure of EUR 500 million. The buyback is intended to remunerate shareholders and support share incentive plans, while also allowing flexibility for potential acquisitions. The program will be conducted through Goldman Sachs International, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations and equal treatment of shareholders. The duration of the program is set for a maximum of 18 months, and the company will update the market on the progress and any changes to the program.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:LTMC) stock is a Buy with a EUR12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lottomatica Group S.P.A. stock, see the IT:LTMC Stock Forecast page.

Lottomatica Joins STOXX Europe 600 Index

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. has been included in the STOXX Europe 600 Index, effective from June 23, 2025. This inclusion marks a significant milestone for Lottomatica, enhancing its visibility and credibility in the European market. Being part of this index, which comprises 600 top European companies, could positively impact Lottomatica’s operations and industry positioning, potentially benefiting stakeholders by increasing investor interest and confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:LTMC) stock is a Buy with a EUR12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lottomatica Group S.P.A. stock, see the IT:LTMC Stock Forecast page.

Gamma Intermediate Completes Sale of Lottomatica Shares

Gamma Intermediate S.à r.l. has completed the sale of 26 million shares of Lottomatica Group S.p.A., representing approximately 10.3% of the company’s share capital, through an accelerated bookbuilding offering. The sale generated gross proceeds of €496.6 million, with Gamma Intermediate retaining a 21.3% stake in Lottomatica. The transaction involved several financial institutions as underwriters and legal advisors, and includes a 60-day lock-up agreement for the remaining shares.

Lottomatica Group Reports Record Q1 Results and Announces Share Buyback

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. reported its best-ever Q1 results with an adjusted EBITDA of €220 million, marking a 47% year-over-year increase. The company announced a €500 million share buyback starting in June and completed a refinancing that resulted in significant interest savings. Additionally, Lottomatica’s credit rating was upgraded, reflecting its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives.

Lottomatica Group Announces Dividend and Shareholders’ Meeting Minutes

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. announced the approval of its financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, and declared a dividend of EUR 0.30 per share. The dividend will be distributed starting May 21, 2025, through authorized intermediaries, with no applicable tax credit. The minutes of the recent Shareholders’ Meeting will be publicly accessible at the company’s registered office and online, ensuring transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Lottomatica Group Approves 2024 Financials and Dividend Distribution

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. held its Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting, approving the 2024 financial statements and a dividend distribution of €0.30 per share. The meeting also authorized the purchase and disposal of treasury shares, approved amendments to the Articles of Association, and endorsed the remuneration policy. The company reported a 23% increase in consolidated revenues for 2024, reflecting strong financial performance and positioning in the gaming industry.

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. Launches €600 Million Senior Secured Notes

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. announced the launch of €600 million in Senior Secured Notes due 2031, aiming to use the proceeds to redeem existing notes and amend its revolving credit facility. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity and financial flexibility, potentially strengthening its market position and offering benefits to its stakeholders.