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Innventure (INV)
NASDAQ:INV
US Market

Innventure (INV) AI Stock Analysis

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INV

Innventure

(NASDAQ:INV)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-11.76% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/15/26
Overall score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (large losses, negative margins, and weak cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Positive corporate events around fundraising and debt reduction provide some offset, but valuation is difficult to support given ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Low financial leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15 indicates manageable leverage and greater capital structure flexibility. Low leverage reduces refinancing risk, supports interest coverage resilience, and provides capacity to fund growth or absorb shocks over the next several quarters without forcing distressed asset sales or immediate equity raises.
Completed $40M equity raise to repay debentures
The $40M registered equity offering earmarked to repay convertible debentures materially reduces short-term debt overhang and interest obligations. This deleveraging improves near-term liquidity, lowers default risk, and increases operational runway, strengthening the balance sheet for multi-quarter execution of strategy.
Accelsius funding and strategic partner agreements
Accelsius's $40M Series B-1 and new deals with Legrand and Johnson Controls create durable go-to-market channels, supply and co-development ties. These partnerships can drive predictable revenue scaling, de-risk product commercialization, and strengthen subsidiary valuation and cash generation over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative profitability
Persistent negative gross and net margins indicate the business is not currently capturing value from revenue. Over multiple quarters this undermines internal reinvestment capacity, forces reliance on external financing, and suggests structural issues in pricing, cost structure, or product-market fit that impair sustainable profit recovery.
Negative operating cash flow
Negative operating cash flow signals the core business fails to generate sufficient cash to cover operations. Even with some free cash flow growth, ongoing negative OCF pressures liquidity, heightens dependence on financing, and constrains capital allocation to R&D or scaling without repeat equity or debt transactions.
Severely negative return on equity
A -113.56% ROE shows substantial value destruction versus shareholder capital. Persistently negative ROE over quarters erodes investor equity, limits ability to attract long-term capital on favorable terms, and indicates operations and investments have not delivered returns commensurate with risk.

Innventure (INV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Innventure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInnventure, Inc. operates companies with a focus on transformative, sustainable technology solutions acquired or licensed from multinational corporations. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in Orlando, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyInnventure generates revenue through multiple streams, including consulting fees for strategic advisory services provided to startups and established businesses. Additionally, the company invests in early-stage ventures, earning returns on its investments as these companies grow or are acquired. Revenue is also derived from licensing proprietary technology solutions to other firms, creating recurring income. Significant partnerships with industry leaders and access to venture capital funds further bolster Innventure's financial performance, allowing it to leverage its expertise and network for increased profitability.

Innventure Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Weak fundamentals: deeply negative profitability (gross margin -5.48%, net margin -189%) and negative operating/free cash flow despite revenue growth. Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.15), but very negative ROE (-113.56%) underscores substantial value destruction.
Income Statement
20
Very Negative
Innventure's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows negative margins across the board, with a gross profit margin of -5.48% and a net profit margin of -189.00%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also deeply negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although there is a revenue growth rate of 14.73% in the TTM, the company is struggling to convert this into profitability.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -113.56%, highlighting significant losses relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 34.27%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing, but the negative ROE is a major concern.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates a challenging situation with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 25.15% in the TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow is covering net losses, but overall cash flow health is weak.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.69M1.22M1.12M942.00K1.85M
Gross Profit-14.89M-3.31M1.12M942.00K1.85M
EBITDA-479.29M-93.11M-29.75M-31.89M8.03M
Net Income-317.31M-78.19M-30.84M-32.76M6.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets556.51M905.29M21.56M27.98M233.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.06M11.12M2.58M7.54M237.36K
Total Debt66.00M28.28M7.41M5.90M0.00
Total Liabilities149.94M139.00M40.05M39.17M19.79M
Stockholders Equity190.77M425.52M-20.05M-11.85M214.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-87.21M-49.06M-20.12M-9.95M-3.90M
Operating Cash Flow-85.54M-48.06M-19.48M-9.95M-3.90M
Investing Cash Flow2.74M865.00K-4.67M1.48M564.00K
Financing Cash Flow96.81M71.91M19.17M11.67M6.08M

Innventure Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price3.40
Price Trends
50DMA
3.96
Negative
100DMA
4.01
Negative
200DMA
4.56
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Negative
RSI
49.44
Neutral
STOCH
62.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.24, below the 50-day MA of 3.96, and below the 200-day MA of 4.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for INV.

Innventure Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$377.56M6.0017.44%6.55%6.38%25.69%
69
Neutral
$229.87M6.769.43%17.28%206.13%298.86%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$236.62M3.8835.45%5.39%
60
Neutral
$325.95M10.348.20%12.83%90.34%-44.25%
55
Neutral
$351.62M25.712.72%14.10%-2.38%-75.49%
44
Neutral
$250.98M-0.49-353.77%-1555.32%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
INV
Innventure
3.40
-5.01
-59.57%
NEWT
Newtek Business
12.97
1.33
11.38%
SSSS
SuRo Capital
9.21
3.90
73.45%
SCM
Stellus Capital
10.50
-3.24
-23.61%
TPVG
TriplePoint Venture Growth
5.57
-1.26
-18.45%
PSBD
Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc.
10.98
-2.64
-19.38%

Innventure Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Raises $40 Million in Registered Stock Offering
Positive
Jan 14, 2026

On January 12, 2026, Innventure, Inc. entered into securities purchase agreements with four institutional investors for an SEC-registered public offering of 11,428,572 shares of common stock, raising approximately $40 million in gross proceeds, with the offering closing on January 14, 2026. The company plans to use the net proceeds primarily to fully repay all outstanding convertible debentures, address other indebtedness, fund working capital and general corporate purposes, and potentially exercise its right to receive equity in Accelsius instead of cash for repayment of about $8 million of intercompany convertible debt and interest. The deal, conducted on a reasonable best-efforts basis with Titan Partners Group LLC as sole placement agent, includes a 30-day lock-up on new issuances of common stock or equivalents by Innventure and its executives and directors, and involves standard indemnification and expense reimbursement arrangements, underscoring a near-term focus on deleveraging and balance-sheet strengthening following the effective registration of its shelf offering in January 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Reports Significant Reduction in Convertible Debenture Balance
Positive
Jan 12, 2026

Innventure subsidiary Accelsius Holdings LLC raised $40 million through the sale of Series B-1 units to Legrand DPC, LLC and Johnson Controls, Inc., implying an Accelsius valuation of about $665 million as of the recently announced funding round; the valuation is based on various estimates and assumptions that may not prove accurate. Separately, as of January 12, 2026, Innventure reported that the outstanding balance on its convertible debentures issued to YA II PN, Ltd. had declined to approximately $6 million from about $32.1 million on September 30, 2025, indicating a material reduction of roughly $26.1 million in this portion of its debt obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Subsidiary Accelsius Secures New Series B-1 Funding
Positive
Jan 12, 2026

On December 29, 2025, Innventure subsidiary Accelsius Holdings LLC closed a Series B-1 funding round in which it raised approximately $40 million through the sale of 822,195 Series B-1 Units to new investor Legrand DPC, LLC for about $30 million and 274,065 additional Series B-1 Units to existing investor Johnson Controls, Inc. for about $10 million, adding to the roughly $25 million previously invested by Johnson Controls on October 2, 2025. The unregistered Series B-1 Units, which are convertible into Accelsius Class A Common Units at an initial issue and conversion price of $36.4877 per unit, will fund general corporate purposes and further cement Accelsius’s capital base as it expands its operations and strategic partnerships. In connection with the closing, Accelsius amended its operating agreement to admit Legrand as a member, expand its board to eight directors, and grant Legrand the right to designate one board member with veto authority over key “Preferred Decisions,” including significant indebtedness, changes affecting Series B-1 rights, creation of senior or pari passu units, and increases in authorized equity, while also providing Legrand customary preemptive, information, and transfer-related rights that are similarly available to Johnson Controls. Accelsius also plans to enter into a suite of commercial and strategic agreements with Legrand, including reseller, private label, joint development, supply, and contract manufacturing arrangements, signaling a deepening operational and go-to-market alliance that could enhance Accelsius’s industry positioning and long-term growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Innventure Joins Russell Indexes, Boosting Visibility
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

Innventure, Inc. announced its inclusion in the Russell 2000®, Russell 3000®, and Russell Microcap® Indexes, effective December 22, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its strategy execution. This inclusion is expected to enhance Innventure’s visibility within the investment community and broaden its shareholder base, reflecting its progress in transforming breakthrough technologies into scalable businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Innventure Approves Stock Issuance to Comply with Nasdaq
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

On December 2, 2025, Innventure, Inc. held a Special Meeting of Stockholders where stockholders voted on proposals related to the issuance of additional common stock. The meeting resulted in the approval of two proposals to comply with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(d), allowing the issuance of 20% or more of the company’s common stock in connection with convertible debentures issued to Yorkville. The approval of these proposals indicates a strategic move to facilitate financial agreements with Yorkville, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Innventure Appoints Bruce Brown as Lead Director
Neutral
Nov 18, 2025

Innventure, Inc. announced the appointment of Bruce Brown as its first Lead Independent Director, effective November 12, 2025. This new role aims to enhance board operations and stakeholder communications, with Mr. Brown playing a pivotal role in agenda setting and acting as a liaison between the board and stakeholders. Additionally, on November 14, 2025, the company amended its Non-Management Director Compensation Plan to include an annual retainer of $30,000 for the Lead Independent Director, payable quarterly, with an option to receive compensation in company stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Innventure Issues Fourth Convertible Debenture to Yorkville
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025

Innventure, Inc., a Delaware corporation, announced the issuance of its Fourth Convertible Debenture to Yorkville, with a principal amount of $5,000,000 on November 12, 2025. This financial move resulted in gross proceeds of approximately $4,500,000 for the company, with the debenture bearing an annual interest rate of 5.0% and maturing on September 15, 2026. The issuance is structured to allow conversion into common stock, subject to certain conditions and limitations, potentially impacting the company’s stock market activities and shareholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (INV) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Innventure stock, see the INV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 15, 2026