Innventure (INV)
NASDAQ:INV
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Innventure
(NASDAQ:INV)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-3.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and ongoing cash burn), with valuation also constrained by unprofitability and no dividend data. This is partially offset by a more positive earnings-call outlook (bookings/backlog, improved liquidity, and cost reductions) and neutral-to-improving technical signals.
Positive Factors
Institutional validation via Accelsius financing
Accelsius’s $665M post-money Series B tranche with strategic investors provides durable third-party validation. That credibility improves commercial partnerships, supports customer wins and supplier terms, and materially eases future opco funding access—reducing execution risk through the scaling phase.
Negative Factors
Very large losses relative to revenue
Extremely wide losses versus minimal consolidated revenue indicate structural unprofitability at present. Such a disconnect necessitates continued external capital, increases execution scrutiny on opco commercialization, and elevates the risk that operational setbacks or slower-than-expected scaling force further dilution or strategic trade-offs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Institutional validation via Accelsius financing
Accelsius’s $665M post-money Series B tranche with strategic investors provides durable third-party validation. That credibility improves commercial partnerships, supports customer wins and supplier terms, and materially eases future opco funding access—reducing execution risk through the scaling phase.
Read all positive factors
Innventure (INV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$374.72M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-1555.32%
CountryUS
Employees153
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.69
Shares Outstanding80,069,320
10 Day Avg. Volume1,548,230
30 Day Avg. Volume1,302,837
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)110.64
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue101.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-12.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside177.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.94M
Innventure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Innventure, Inc. operates companies with a focus on transformative, sustainable technology solutions acquired or licensed from multinational corporations. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in Orlando, Florida....
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Innventure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear commercial inflection: strong institutional validation (Accelsius $665M post-money valuation), >$50M in Q1 bookings, improved liquidity (cash up to $65.4M and a $40M offering) and significant G&A reductions (Q4'25 G&A down 61% YoY). Operating companies show rapid technical and commercial progress (Accelsius scaling toward a ~$100M run rate, AeroFlexx securing anchor customers including Aveda, Refinity demonstrating high conversion yields). Key challenges include a sizable adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025 (−$78.8M), supply chain-driven timing risk for revenue recognition, inventory obsolescence and COGS variability, and potential dilution as opcos raise capital independently. Overall, the call portrays a business transitioning toward self-funding operating companies with meaningful validation and momentum, while still managing near-term operational and financial risks as revenue scaling completes over the coming quarters.Positive Updates
Commercial Inflection — >$50M Bookings in Q1 2026
Operating companies generated more than $50 million in new contracted bookings in Q1 2026 (production volume orders), presented as a leading indicator of scaling revenue and enterprise value creation.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Ongoing Unprofitability
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, excluding a $347 million noncash goodwill adjustment and other noncash items, was a loss of $78.8 million — consolidated profitability still a multi-year objective with management targeting consolidated cash flow positivity in 2028.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commercial Inflection — >$50M Bookings in Q1 2026
Operating companies generated more than $50 million in new contracted bookings in Q1 2026 (production volume orders), presented as a leading indicator of scaling revenue and enterprise value creation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the platform is transitioning from capital-consuming to increasingly self-funding, targeting consolidated cash‑flow positivity in 2028 and stating Accelsius should reach cash‑flow breakeven (cash from operations) by year‑end 2026 — implying a ~ $100M December 2026 revenue run rate — driven by >$50M of contracted backlog in Q1 2026; consolidated 2025 revenue was $2.1M (vs $1.2M in 2024) while Accelsius revenue rose from $0.3M in 2024 to $1.6M in 2025. Management highlighted capital and balance sheet metrics including ~$160M deployed since inception that generated ~ $860M of NAV (including ~ $460M distributed via PureCycle), $65.4M cash/restricted cash at year‑end 2025 (up from $11.1M), a $40M registered direct raise in Jan‑2026 and repayment of a $5.6M convertible balance. Cost and profitability progress includes consolidated G&A down from $29.7M in Q4‑2024 to $11.5M in Q4‑2025 (61% reduction), parent cash G&A of $5.7M in Q4‑2025 (down >55% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA (ex the $347M noncash goodwill adjustment) of a $78.8M loss for 2025. Operating‑company specifics: Accelsius closed a Dec‑2025 Series B second tranche totaling $65M that valued the business at ~$665M post‑money and is positioned in 2‑phase direct‑to‑chip cooling; AeroFlexx has six consecutive quarters of revenue, a near‑term pipeline of ~$30M (≈1/3 in final negotiations) and targets cash‑flow positivity in 2028; Refinity (formed Dec‑2024) produced its first metric ton in <1 year with yields typically 60–70% (vs ~25% for peers), is targeting a 10 kt/yr demo by 2028 and a ~150 kt/yr commercial plant in the early next decade, and is addressing a ~$350B petrochemical market plus high‑growth SAF opportunity (38–50% CAGR to an estimated $40B by 2034).Innventure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.06M | 1.22M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| Gross Profit | -16.77M | -3.31M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| EBITDA | -456.65M | -93.11M | -29.75M | -31.89M | 8.03M |
| Net Income | -293.32M | -78.19M | -30.84M | -32.76M | 6.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 599.19M | 905.29M | 21.56M | 27.98M | 233.81M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.45M | 11.12M | 2.58M | 7.54M | 237.36K |
| Total Debt | 33.39M | 28.28M | 7.41M | 5.90M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 115.51M | 139.00M | 40.05M | 39.17M | 19.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 204.21M | 425.52M | -20.05M | -11.85M | 214.03M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -82.10M | -49.06M | -20.12M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.68M | -48.06M | -19.48M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.13M | 865.00K | -4.67M | 1.48M | 564.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 139.14M | 71.91M | 19.17M | 11.67M | 6.08M |
Innventure Technical Analysis
Positive
4.68
Price Trends
3.46
Positive
3.96
Positive
4.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
66.89
Neutral
87.26
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.89, above the 50-day MA of 3.46, and above the 200-day MA of 4.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INV.
Innventure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $281.04M | 4.69 | ― | 5.39% | ― | ― | |
57 Neutral | $333.29M | 4.72 | 17.30% | 6.55% | 6.38% | 25.69% | |
55 Neutral | $272.97M | 13.30 | 0.03% | 12.83% | 90.34% | -44.25% | |
53 Neutral | $316.67M | -123.58 | >-0.01% | 14.10% | -2.38% | -75.49% | |
52 Neutral | $210.55M | 8.14 | 14.02% | 17.28% | 206.13% | 298.86% | |
50 Neutral | $374.72M | -0.78 | -353.77% | ― | ― | -1555.32% |
* Financial Sector Average
INV
Innventure
4.68
0.35
8.08%
NEWT
Newtek Business
11.56
2.53
28.07%
SSSS
SuRo Capital
11.07
6.84
161.83%
SCM
Stellus Capital
9.43
-0.90
-8.74%
TPVG
TriplePoint Venture Growth
5.20
0.31
6.23%
PSBD
Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc.
10.15
-0.54
-5.01%
Innventure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Files Shelf Registration to Streamline Stock Resales
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Innventure, Inc. filed a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register the resale of its common stock by certain existing stockholders. The move consolidates three earlier ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Units Reach Key Milestones, Strengthen Financial Outlook
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Innventure reported that its operating companies Accelsius, AeroFlexx, and Refinity have reached key commercial and technical milestones, underpinning more than $50 million in first-quarter 2026 bookings and validating its create...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Executives Settle RSUs with Tax Share Withholding
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Innventure, Inc. settled vested restricted stock units granted to executive officers Michael Otworth and John Scott, and on March 2, 2026, both reported that the company had withheld a portion of the resulting common shares t...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Innventure Advances Sustainable Packaging with Aveda AeroFlexx Deal
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, AeroFlexx announced that Aveda will become the first prestige beauty brand to globally adopt its curbside recyclable refill packaging, marking a significant commercial milestone for both companies. The collaboration will laun...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Innventure Transitions Key Executives From Contractors to Employees
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 16, 2026, Innventure LLC transitioned Executive Chairman Michael Otworth from an independent contractor role under a consulting agreement with Sugar Grove Ventures, LLC to an at-will employment relationship under a new letter agreement...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Responds to Activist Filing and Reaffirms Growth Strategy
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Innventure issued a statement responding to a Schedule 13D filing by Commonwealth Asset Management and reaffirmed that its board and management are focused on acting in the best interests of all shareholders. The company emph...
Business Operations and Strategy
Innventure’s Refinity Achieves Key Plastic Recycling Scale-Up Milestone
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Refinity, an Innventure company, reported that it has validated its plastic waste conversion technology using real‑world waste and produced a metric ton of product at pilot scale with yields typically above 60–70%...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Raises $40 Million in Registered Stock Offering
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Innventure, Inc. entered into securities purchase agreements with four institutional investors for an SEC-registered public offering of 11,428,572 shares of common stock, raising approximately $40 million in gross proceeds, wi...
Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Reports Significant Reduction in Convertible Debenture Balance
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Innventure subsidiary Accelsius Holdings LLC raised $40 million through the sale of Series B-1 units to Legrand DPC, LLC and Johnson Controls, Inc., implying an Accelsius valuation of about $665 million as of the recently announced funding round; ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Subsidiary Accelsius Secures New Series B-1 Funding
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On December 29, 2025, Innventure subsidiary Accelsius Holdings LLC closed a Series B-1 funding round in which it raised approximately $40 million through the sale of 822,195 Series B-1 Units to new investor Legrand DPC, LLC for about $30 million a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.