Innventure (INV)
NASDAQ:INV
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Innventure
(NASDAQ:INV)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(41.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance: steep losses and persistent cash burn despite revenue growth. Technicals are a meaningful positive, showing a strong uptrend and positive momentum. Earnings-call commentary improves the outlook with bookings/backlog, liquidity improvement, and cost cuts, but ongoing unprofitability, revenue timing uncertainty, and dilution risk temper the upside; valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Institutional validation (Accelsius $665M)
A third‑party $665M post‑money valuation backed by strategic investors materially de‑risks Accelsius' technology/commercial path. Institutional validation improves follow‑on fundability for the operating company and raises the probability that Accelsius becomes self‑funding, enhancing platform value over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Severe unprofitability and widening losses
A roughly $295M net loss on only $2.1M of 2025 revenue reflects a deeply unprofitable operating profile that is not yet in corrective steady state. Large, persistent losses erode equity, limit reinvestment, and increase reliance on external capital or disposals to sustain operations, making long‑term value realization contingent on rapid opco margin improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Institutional validation (Accelsius $665M)
A third‑party $665M post‑money valuation backed by strategic investors materially de‑risks Accelsius' technology/commercial path. Institutional validation improves follow‑on fundability for the operating company and raises the probability that Accelsius becomes self‑funding, enhancing platform value over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Innventure (INV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$504.44M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth68.52%
EPS Growth-195.39%
CountryUS
Employees153
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.77
Shares Outstanding80,069,320
10 Day Avg. Volume1,548,230
30 Day Avg. Volume1,302,837
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)110.64
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue152.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-18.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside182.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.94M
Innventure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Innventure, Inc. operates companies with a focus on transformative, sustainable technology solutions acquired or licensed from multinational corporations. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in Orlando, Florida....
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Innventure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear commercial inflection: strong institutional validation (Accelsius $665M post-money valuation), >$50M in Q1 bookings, improved liquidity (cash up to $65.4M and a $40M offering) and significant G&A reductions (Q4'25 G&A down 61% YoY). Operating companies show rapid technical and commercial progress (Accelsius scaling toward a ~$100M run rate, AeroFlexx securing anchor customers including Aveda, Refinity demonstrating high conversion yields). Key challenges include a sizable adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025 (−$78.8M), supply chain-driven timing risk for revenue recognition, inventory obsolescence and COGS variability, and potential dilution as opcos raise capital independently. Overall, the call portrays a business transitioning toward self-funding operating companies with meaningful validation and momentum, while still managing near-term operational and financial risks as revenue scaling completes over the coming quarters.Positive Updates
Commercial Inflection — >$50M Bookings in Q1 2026
Operating companies generated more than $50 million in new contracted bookings in Q1 2026 (production volume orders), presented as a leading indicator of scaling revenue and enterprise value creation.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Ongoing Unprofitability
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, excluding a $347 million noncash goodwill adjustment and other noncash items, was a loss of $78.8 million — consolidated profitability still a multi-year objective with management targeting consolidated cash flow positivity in 2028.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commercial Inflection — >$50M Bookings in Q1 2026
Operating companies generated more than $50 million in new contracted bookings in Q1 2026 (production volume orders), presented as a leading indicator of scaling revenue and enterprise value creation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the platform is transitioning from capital-consuming to increasingly self-funding, targeting consolidated cash‑flow positivity in 2028 and stating Accelsius should reach cash‑flow breakeven (cash from operations) by year‑end 2026 — implying a ~ $100M December 2026 revenue run rate — driven by >$50M of contracted backlog in Q1 2026; consolidated 2025 revenue was $2.1M (vs $1.2M in 2024) while Accelsius revenue rose from $0.3M in 2024 to $1.6M in 2025. Management highlighted capital and balance sheet metrics including ~$160M deployed since inception that generated ~ $860M of NAV (including ~ $460M distributed via PureCycle), $65.4M cash/restricted cash at year‑end 2025 (up from $11.1M), a $40M registered direct raise in Jan‑2026 and repayment of a $5.6M convertible balance. Cost and profitability progress includes consolidated G&A down from $29.7M in Q4‑2024 to $11.5M in Q4‑2025 (61% reduction), parent cash G&A of $5.7M in Q4‑2025 (down >55% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA (ex the $347M noncash goodwill adjustment) of a $78.8M loss for 2025. Operating‑company specifics: Accelsius closed a Dec‑2025 Series B second tranche totaling $65M that valued the business at ~$665M post‑money and is positioned in 2‑phase direct‑to‑chip cooling; AeroFlexx has six consecutive quarters of revenue, a near‑term pipeline of ~$30M (≈1/3 in final negotiations) and targets cash‑flow positivity in 2028; Refinity (formed Dec‑2024) produced its first metric ton in <1 year with yields typically 60–70% (vs ~25% for peers), is targeting a 10 kt/yr demo by 2028 and a ~150 kt/yr commercial plant in the early next decade, and is addressing a ~$350B petrochemical market plus high‑growth SAF opportunity (38–50% CAGR to an estimated $40B by 2034).Innventure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.06M | 1.22M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| Gross Profit | -39.28M | -3.31M | 1.12M | 942.00K | 1.85M |
| EBITDA | -456.65M | -93.11M | -29.75M | -31.89M | 8.03M |
| Net Income | -293.32M | -78.19M | -30.84M | -32.76M | 6.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 599.19M | 905.29M | 21.56M | 27.98M | 233.81M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.45M | 11.12M | 2.58M | 7.54M | 237.36K |
| Total Debt | 33.39M | 28.28M | 7.41M | 5.90M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 115.51M | 139.00M | 40.05M | 39.17M | 19.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 204.21M | 425.52M | -20.05M | -11.85M | 214.03M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -82.10M | -49.06M | -20.12M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.68M | -48.06M | -19.48M | -9.95M | -3.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.13M | 865.00K | -4.67M | 1.48M | 564.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 139.14M | 71.91M | 19.17M | 11.67M | 6.08M |
Innventure Technical Analysis
Positive
4.60
Price Trends
3.67
Positive
4.03
Positive
4.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
58.31
Neutral
71.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, above the 50-day MA of 3.67, and above the 200-day MA of 4.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INV.
Innventure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $378.27M | 6.37 | 17.30% | 6.55% | -2.67% | 18.94% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $344.69M | 4.69 | ― | 5.39% | ― | ― | |
62 Neutral | $225.13M | 8.14 | 14.02% | 17.28% | 28.53% | 48.75% | |
56 Neutral | $504.44M | -1.51 | -129.82% | ― | 68.52% | -195.39% | |
55 Neutral | $284.55M | 13.30 | 0.03% | 12.83% | 16.48% | -46.87% | |
53 Neutral | $346.93M | -123.58 | >-0.01% | 14.10% | -11.56% | -106.89% |
* Financial Sector Average
INV
Innventure
6.30
2.28
56.72%
NEWT
Newtek Business
13.12
3.91
42.39%
SSSS
SuRo Capital
13.57
8.64
175.14%
SCM
Stellus Capital
9.83
-1.44
-12.75%
TPVG
TriplePoint Venture Growth
5.56
0.52
10.32%
PSBD
Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc.
11.12
-0.02
-0.18%
Innventure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Innventure Refreshes Board With New Independent Directors
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Innventure announced that director Daniel Hennessy resigned from its Board and committee roles, including the Audit Committee, effective April 29, 2026, temporarily leaving the Audit Committee out of compliance with Nasdaq’s requirement for ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Hosts CEO Call to Enhance Investor Transparency
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
Innventure held an operating company CEO conference call on April 27, 2026, featuring the leaders of its subsidiaries Accelsius Holdings, AeroFlexx and Refinity Olefins, with a replay and accompanying presentation made available on its investor re...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Innventure’s Accelsius Launches NeuCool IR150 Data Center Cooling
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Accelsius announced the general availability of its NeuCool IR150, a fully integrated, 800mm-wide rack-level cooling system delivering up to 150kW that combines a two-phase coolant distribution unit, IT rack space, and built-in ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Innventure to Host Portfolio CEO Call Highlighting Progress
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Innventure, Inc., an industrial growth conglomerate listed on Nasdaq as INV, specializes in launching and scaling industrial enterprises built around breakthrough technologies, seeking to create billion‑dollar businesses by marrying early...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Files Shelf Registration to Streamline Stock Resales
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Innventure, Inc. filed a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register the resale of its common stock by certain existing stockholders. The move consolidates three earlier ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Innventure Units Reach Key Milestones, Strengthen Financial Outlook
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Innventure reported that its operating companies Accelsius, AeroFlexx, and Refinity have reached key commercial and technical milestones, underpinning more than $50 million in first-quarter 2026 bookings and validating its create...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Executives Settle RSUs with Tax Share Withholding
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Innventure, Inc. settled vested restricted stock units granted to executive officers Michael Otworth and John Scott, and on March 2, 2026, both reported that the company had withheld a portion of the resulting common shares t...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Innventure Advances Sustainable Packaging with Aveda AeroFlexx Deal
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, AeroFlexx announced that Aveda will become the first prestige beauty brand to globally adopt its curbside recyclable refill packaging, marking a significant commercial milestone for both companies. The collaboration will laun...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Innventure Transitions Key Executives From Contractors to Employees
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 16, 2026, Innventure LLC transitioned Executive Chairman Michael Otworth from an independent contractor role under a consulting agreement with Sugar Grove Ventures, LLC to an at-will employment relationship under a new letter agreement...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Innventure Responds to Activist Filing and Reaffirms Growth Strategy
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Innventure issued a statement responding to a Schedule 13D filing by Commonwealth Asset Management and reaffirmed that its board and management are focused on acting in the best interests of all shareholders. The company emph...
Business Operations and Strategy
Innventure’s Refinity Achieves Key Plastic Recycling Scale-Up Milestone
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Refinity, an Innventure company, reported that it has validated its plastic waste conversion technology using real‑world waste and produced a metric ton of product at pilot scale with yields typically above 60–70%...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.