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Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IN:IOC)
:IOC
India Market

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOC) AI Stock Analysis

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IN:IOC

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd.

(IOC)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
₹204.00
▲(15.42% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:11/12/25
Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. scores well due to strong financial performance and reasonable valuation. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, which could lead to a short-term pullback. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Improving leverage and equity base
A falling debt-to-equity ratio and a materially stronger equity ratio indicate improving financial stability, lowering refinancing and solvency risk. This enhances flexibility to fund maintenance and strategic capex, supports lender confidence and reduces vulnerability to interest-rate shocks over the medium term.
Sustained revenue growth and stable gross margins
Consistent topline expansion with a stable gross margin signals enduring market demand and operational efficiency across refining and marketing segments. This supports long-term EBITDA generation, funds reinvestment into capacity, and helps the firm better absorb commodity price volatility over a multi-quarter horizon.
Integrated value chain & national distribution
IOC’s vertically integrated model and nationwide retail, pipeline and petrochemical footprint create durable competitive advantages: diversified cash flows across refining, marketing and midstream, scale-driven procurement and distribution efficiencies, and resilience to localized demand shocks over months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow in 2025
Negative free cash flow despite operating cash generation indicates heavy capex or working-capital demands. Persisting FCF deficits constrain debt reduction, limit shareholder returns, and may force external financing; this reduces financial flexibility and elevates structural liquidity risk over coming quarters.
Volatility in net profit margins
Wide swings in net margins reflect exposure to crude price cycles, product spread variability and possible timing/regulatory pass-through effects. Such margin volatility undermines earnings predictability, complicates capital allocation and weakens the reliability of cash returns to stakeholders over medium-term planning horizons.
High absolute level of debt remains
Even with improved ratios, elevated absolute debt increases interest costs and refinancing exposure. In an adverse commodity or rate environment, servicing obligations could crowd out capex or dividends. This structural leverage burden remains a material risk to durability of cash flows and strategic optionality.

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOC) vs. iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA)

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIndian Oil Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the refining, pipeline transportation, and marketing of petroleum products in India. It is also involved in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas, and petrochemicals; and marketing of natural gas. The company's products include petrol/gasoline, diesel/gas oil, lubricants and greases, auto gas, cooking gas, kerosene, LPG, bulk/industrial fuels, aviation fuel, marine oils, and bitumen. In addition, the company offers special products, such as carbon black feedstock, raw petroleum coke, sulphur, paraffin wax, raw petroleum coke, jute batching oil, micro crystalline wax, mineral turpentine oil, toluene, propylene, benzene, and petcoke. Further, it engages in the explosives and cryogenic; wind and solar power generation; lube blending; bunkering; refining and pipeline consultancy; and lubricants and base oil marketing activities. The company operates through a network of approximately 9 refineries; approximately 15,000 kilometers of pipelines; approximately 34,559 fuel stations, including 11,026 Kisan Seva Kendra outlets; 120 terminals and depots; 101 LPG bottling plants/terminals; 126 aviation fuel stations; 6,993 consumer pumps; 12,813 LPG distributors; 1,488 CNG stations; 10 lube blending plants; and 2,179 EV charging stations, including 34 battery swapping stations. Its exploration and production portfolio comprises 9 exploration and production blocks in India. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in New Delhi, India.
How the Company Makes MoneyIOC generates revenue primarily through the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company's vast network of refineries has a substantial capacity, allowing it to process crude oil into a range of products including gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. Revenue is also driven by the sale of petrochemicals and lubricants. In addition, IOC earns from its extensive pipeline network, which facilitates the transportation of crude oil and finished products across India. The company benefits from government subsidies on certain fuels, which can impact its profitability. Strategic partnerships with other energy firms and investments in renewable energy sources also contribute to its earnings, enhancing its market position and diversifying its revenue streams.

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. demonstrates robust revenue growth and improved leverage management, indicating overall financial health. However, volatility in profit margins and negative free cash flow in recent periods highlight potential challenges in profitability and cash management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. has shown solid revenue growth over the years, with a 60% increase from 2020 to 2025. The company has maintained a stable gross profit margin averaging approximately 11% over the years. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, peaking at 5.4% in 2024 but dropping to 1.8% in 2025. The EBIT margin has also fluctuated, reflecting sensitivity to market conditions and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio decreasing from 1.36 in 2020 to 0.82 in 2025, indicating improved leverage management. The equity ratio has improved significantly over time, reaching 36.8% in 2025, which reflects better financial stability and asset utilization. However, the high absolute level of debt remains a potential risk factor.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging environment for free cash flow, which turned negative in 2025 despite positive operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting good cash conversion efficiency, but the negative free cash flow in recent years indicates heavy capital expenditure and potential cash management challenges.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.57T7.58T7.76T8.42T5.89T3.64T
Gross Profit977.63B939.97B1.31T880.81B974.01B846.27B
EBITDA412.65B382.60B767.68B380.98B475.77B394.27B
Net Income168.83B135.98B417.30B97.92B251.02B216.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets0.005.07T4.82T4.42T4.11T3.55T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments65.71B136.00B135.39B151.94B100.15B110.02B
Total Debt0.001.52T1.33T1.49T1.32T1.17T
Total Liabilities-1.91T3.16T2.94T2.99T2.75T2.42T
Stockholders Equity1.91T1.86T1.83T1.40T1.34T1.12T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-1.51B339.23B-29.56B15.33B260.29B
Operating Cash Flow0.00346.99B710.99B296.44B245.70B498.62B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-318.48B-314.64B-280.30B-211.78B-242.45B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-34.25B-393.85B-17.94B-29.97B-262.70B

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price176.75
Price Trends
50DMA
168.07
Positive
100DMA
163.05
Positive
200DMA
150.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.46
Positive
RSI
44.94
Neutral
STOCH
46.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IN:IOC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 176.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.79, above the 50-day MA of 168.07, and above the 200-day MA of 150.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IN:IOC.

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
₹1.63T6.514.73%-1.35%61.80%
74
Outperform
₹794.84B13.632.94%-1.94%-28.79%
72
Outperform
₹3.55T9.375.21%0.10%-10.18%
71
Outperform
₹329.40B15.122.04%-11.96%14.31%
68
Neutral
₹2.53T6.904.90%-0.93%42.85%
67
Neutral
₹902.94B5.863.26%-1.81%231.75%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IN:IOC
Indian Oil Corp. Ltd.
170.50
54.40
46.86%
IN:BPCL
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
356.35
116.17
48.37%
IN:HINDPETRO
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
401.40
86.57
27.50%
IN:MRPL
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.
191.20
84.85
79.78%
IN:OIL
Oil India Limited
492.15
133.75
37.32%
IN:ONGC
Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Ltd.
277.05
59.67
27.45%

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. Corporate Events

Indian Oil Announces Retirement of Two Senior Executives
Mar 1, 2026

Indian Oil Corporation Limited has announced changes in its senior management, with two executives at one level below the board superannuating from the company effective 28 February 2026. Executive Director in charge of the Western Region Office, Mr. Pitamber Tripathy, and Executive Director in charge of Corporate Communications and Branding at the Corporate Office, Mr. Saurabh Dutt, have retired, indicating upcoming leadership transitions in key regional and branding functions.

These departures may prompt internal realignments as Indian Oil reshapes oversight of its Western regional operations and corporate communication and branding strategy. The changes are disclosed under SEBI’s Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements, underscoring the company’s adherence to governance norms and signaling potential adjustments that stakeholders may monitor in the near term.

Indian Oil Flags Planned Transfer of Unclaimed Shares to Investor Protection Fund
Jan 13, 2026

Indian Oil Corporation Limited has notified stock exchanges that it has published a newspaper advertisement informing shareholders about the proposed transfer of certain equity shares to the Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) Authority. The move concerns shares on which dividends have remained unclaimed for seven consecutive years or more, in line with provisions of the Companies Act, 2013 and related rules, and the company has posted detailed information on the affected shareholders and shares on its website, providing transparency and complying with statutory investor protection requirements.

Indian Oil Reshuffles Senior Management to Bolster Core Operations
Jan 11, 2026

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. has announced a series of changes in its senior management cadre, appointing seasoned internal executives to key roles across health, safety and environment, employee relations, LPG, projects, human resources, corporate communications and branding, operations, hydrotreating and technical services, and a state head position. The newly designated leaders—each with roughly three decades of experience within Indian Oil in areas such as refinery projects and maintenance, LPG marketing, supplies and operations, hydroprocessing and alternative energy, and HR—underscore the company’s reliance on deep internal talent to strengthen operational oversight and specialist capabilities across its refineries, marketing, R&D and corporate functions, a move that is likely to support organizational continuity and reinforce its execution capacity in core and emerging business segments.

Indian Oil Elevates 19 Officials to Senior Management Roles Across Key Functions
Jan 10, 2026

Indian Oil Corporation Limited has promoted a group of officials to the level of Senior Management Personnel, designating them as Executive Directors in key functional and regional roles across the organisation. The new appointments span health, safety and environment; employee relations; projects and operations in refineries and marketing; corporate strategy and finance; internal audit; branding and corporate communications; as well as state heads for several major regional offices and specialised business development areas including polymers, aromatics and chemicals. The move signals a broad-based strengthening of leadership one level below the board, likely aimed at supporting Indian Oil’s operational scale, regional market presence and strategic initiatives in core and value-added businesses.

Indian Oil Announces Interim Dividend and TDS Details for 2025-26
Dec 12, 2025

Indian Oil Corporation Limited announced an interim dividend of Rs 5 per share for the financial year 2025-26, with December 18, 2025, set as the record date for determining shareholder eligibility. The company also detailed the tax deduction at source (TDS) provisions applicable to both resident and non-resident shareholders, emphasizing compliance with the Income-tax Act, 1961, which mandates tax on dividends in the hands of members.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 12, 2025